Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific by the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation （QBWO） is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the westem North Pacific （WNP） during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis （TCG） by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More TCG events occur during the QBWO＇s convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index （GPI）, we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO＇s active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO＇s inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms. Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity. The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns--the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains （SSWs） over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO＇s active phase. This implies a possible enhanced （weakened） relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active （inactive） phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.

Modulation of Twin Tropical Cyclogenesis by the MJO Westerly Wind Burst during the Onset Period of 1997/98 ENSO

The modulation of twin tropical cyclogenesis in the Indian-western Pacific Oceans by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the onset period of 1997/98 ENSO is explored for the period of September 1996 to June 1997 based on daily OLR, NCEP/NCAR wind vector, and JTWC best track datasets. The MJO westerly wind burst associated with its eastward propagation can result in a series of tropical cyclogeneses in a multi-day interval. Only in the transition seasons are pairs of tropical cyclones observed in both the tropical sectors of the Indian-western Pacific Oceans. Two remarkable twin tropical cyclogeneses probably modulated by the MJO westerly wind burst are found: one is observed in the Indian Ocean in the middle of October 1996, and the other is observed in the Western Pacific Ocean in late May 1997. The twin tropical cyclogenesis in mid-October 1996 is observed when the super cloud cluster separates into two isolated clusters by the enhanced westerly wind, which is accompanied by two independent vortices in the equatorial tropical sectors. The other one, in late-May 1997, however, is characterized by one cyclonic flow that later results in another cyclonic cell in its opposite equatorial sector. Thus, there are two very important conditions for twin cyclogenesis: one is the MJO westerly wind straddling the equator, and the other is the integral super cloud cluster, which later splits into two cloud convective clusters with independent vortices.

Role of Equatorial Wave Transitions in Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific

This study associates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) with the equatorial wave transition from an interannual viewpoint, revealing that the tropical cyclogenesis mean location may be modulated by a longitudinal shift in the transition of Mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves to off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) disturbances from year to year. To a large extent, the wave transition is attributable to the monsoon trough in response to the thermal state of the warm pool (WP) over the WNP. During the cold state years in the WP, the basic flow confluence region associated with the monsoon trough penetrates eastward, leading to an eastward shift in the location of the wave transition. Such an environment, in which wave accumulation and energy conversion occur, is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis; as a result, the averaged cyclogenesis location moves eastward. The condition is reserved during the warm years in the WP, resulting in the prominent westward-retreating mean TC formation.

Three Types of Tropical Waves Related to Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific

The present study applies a space-time filter to identify three dominant types of tropical waves: Madden-Julian oscillations (MJOs), equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances. The impacts of these waves on tropical cyclones (TCs) were investigated based on 131 observations during the period 2000 07. The results suggest that 72% of TC geneses were related to the joint impacts of more than one type of wave. The composites for cases in different categories reveal that TCs related to the concurrence of the three types of waves have strong and large initial vortices at the time of TC genesis. In the absence of the MJO, ERand TD-related TC genesis, embedded in easterly flow, exhibits a relatively fast initiation process and gives rise to a relatively small scale vortex. In contrast, without the ER wave contribution, TCs associated with ER and TD waves did not require strong convection at the time of genesis because an initial vortex can rapidly develop in the MJO active phase through persistent energy transfer. The MJO-related TC geneses were scattered in geographic distribution, as opposed to the clustered and eastward shift observed for genesis cases without contributions from MJOs.

INFLUENCE OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF CROSSEQUATORIAL FLOW ON TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

The influence of the interannual variation of cross-equatorial flow(CEF) on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific(WNP) is examined in this paper by using the tropical cyclone(TC) best track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the JRA-25 reanalysis dataset. The results showed that the number of TCs forming to the east of 140°E over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific(WNP) is in highly positive correlation with the variation of the CEF near 125° E and 150° E, i.e., the number of tropical cyclogeneses increases when the cross-equatorial flows are strong. Composite analyses showed that during the years of strong CEF, the variations of OLR, vertical wind shear between 200-850 h Pa, 850 h Pa relative vorticity and 200 h Pa divergence are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis to the east of 140°E over the tropical WNP, and vice versa. Moreover, it is also discussed from the view of barotropic energy conversion that during the years of strong CEF, an eastward-extended monsoon trough leads to the rapid growth of eddy kinetic energy over the eastern part of WNP, which is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis;but during the years of weak CEF, the monsoon trough is located westward in the western part of the WNP, consistent with the growth area of eddy kinetic energy. As a result, there are fewer TC geneses over the eastern part of WNP.Besides, the abrupt strengthening of a close-by CEF 2-4 days before tropical cyclogenesis may be the one of its triggers.

A deep learning-based global tropical cyclogenesis prediction model and its interpretability analysis

Tropical cloud clusters(TCCs)can potentially develop into tropical cyclones(TCs),leading to significant casualties and economic losses.Accurate prediction of tropical cyclogenesis(TCG)is crucial for early warnings.Most traditional deep learning methods applied to TCG prediction rely on predictors from a single time point,neglect the ocean-atmosphere interactions,and exhibit low model interpretability.This study proposes the Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction-Net(TCGP-Net)based on the Swin Transformer,which leverages convolutional operations and attention mechanisms to encode spatiotemporal features and capture the temporal evolution of predictors.This model incorporates the coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions,including multiple variables such as sea surface temperature.Additionally,causal inference and integrated gradients are employed to validate the effectiveness of the predictors and provide an interpretability analysis of the model's decision-making process.The model is trained using GridSat satellite data and ERA5 reanalysis datasets.Experimental results demonstrate that TCGP-Net achieves high accuracy and stability,with a detection rate of 97.9%and a false alarm rate of 2.2%for predicting TCG 24 hours in advance,significantly outperforming existing models.This indicates that TCGP-Net is a reliable tool for tropical cyclogenesis prediction.

Tropical cyclogenesis:Controlling factors and physical mechanisms

In this review,advances in the understanding of the controlling factors and physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis(TCG)are summarized from recent(2018–2022)research on TCG,as presented in the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10).Observational,theoretical,and numerical modeling studies published in recent years have advanced our knowledge on the influence of large-scale environmental factors on TCG.Furthermore,studies have shown clearly that appropriate convective coupling with tropical equatorial waves enhances the development chances of TCG.More recently,illuminating research has been carried out on analyzing the mechanisms by which oscillations and teleconnections(El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in particular)modulate TCG globally,in association with changes in the sea surface temperature(SST).In addition to this,recent research has diligently addressed different aspects of TCG.Multiple studies have reported the applicability of unified theories and physical mechanisms of TCG in different ocean basins.Recently,research has been carried out on TCG under different flow pattern regimes,dry air intrusion,importance of marsupial pouch,genesis of Medicanes,wind shear,convection and vertical structure.Furthermore,studies have discussed the possibility of near equatorial TCG provided that there is enough supply of background vertical vorticity and relatively low vertical wind shear.Progress has been made to understand the role of climate change on global and regional TCG.However,there are still significant gaps which need to be addressed in order to better understand TCG prediction.

Recent advances in research on tropical cyclogenesis

This review article summarizes recent(2014-2019)advances in our understanding of tropical cyclogenesis,stemming from activities at the ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.Tropical cyclogenesis involves the interaction of dynamic and thermodynamic processes at multiple spatio-temporal scales.Studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by external processes,such as intraseasonal oscillations,monsoon circulations,the intertropical convergence zone,and midlatitude troughs and cutoff lows.Additionally,studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by internal processes,such as the organization of deep convection;the evolution of the"pouch"structure;the role of friction;the development of the moist,warm core;the importance of surface fluxes;and the role of the mid-level vortex.A relatively recent class of idealized,numerical simulations of tropical cyclogenesis in radiativeconvective equilibrium have highlighted the potential importance of radiative feedbacks on tropical cyclogenesis.We also offer some recommendations to the community on future directions for tropical cyclogenesis research.

Simulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis in Association with Large-Scale Cyclonic Circulation over the Western North Pacific

The aim of this study is to examine the difference in tropical cyclone （TC） formation in different cyclonic circulation locations using a mesoscale model on a beta plane. A weak initial vortex is imposed at different positions in a cyclonic circulation. Numerical experiments indicate that the tropical disturbances located in the center and northeastern parts of the cyclonic circulation are favorable to TC formation, while those located in the south of the cyclonic circulation are unfavorable. Since the asymmetric circulation induced by the beta effect peaks in the northeastern quadrant of the vortex, when the initial vortex is placed in the southern part of the cyclonic circulation, the vortex begins to develop in the south due to the effect of the westerly wind of the cyclonic circulation. The westerly wind of the cyclonic circulation gradually decreases and the vortex is contributed mainly by the beta effect afterwards. Thus, establishment of the convection circulation-moisture positive feedback is delayed, unfavorable to TC rapid development. On the contrary, when the initial vortex is placed in the northern part of the cyclonic circulation, the superposition of the beta gyres and easterly wind of the cyclonic circulation induces stronger wavenumber-1 wind in the northeastern part of the vortex. The greater asymmetric wind is closely associated with the symmetric wind through energy conversion, thus accelerating a positive feedback and facilitating vortex development into a stronger TC. Meanwhile, when the initial vortex is placed in the center and eastern parts of the cyclonic circulation, the vortex develops a little slower than when it is placed in the northern part, but stronger than when placed in the southern part.