This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a dis...This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing （ITSP）. The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro- vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of watershed, where three scenarios with different water re- sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri- culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock- breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.展开更多
The degradation process modeling is one of research hotspots of prognostic and health management(PHM),which can be used to estimate system reliability and remaining useful life(RUL).In order to study system degradatio...The degradation process modeling is one of research hotspots of prognostic and health management(PHM),which can be used to estimate system reliability and remaining useful life(RUL).In order to study system degradation process,cumulative damage model is used for degradation modeling.Assuming that damage increment is Gamma distribution,shock counting subjects to a homogeneous Poisson process(HPP)when degradation process is linear,and shock counting is a non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP)when degradation process is nonlinear.A two-stage degradation system is considered in this paper,for which the degradation process is linear in the first stage and the degradation process is nonlinear in the second stage.A nonlinear modeling method for considered system is put forward,and reliability model and remaining useful life model are established.A case study is given to validate the veracities of established models.展开更多
AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two populationbased hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography(AUS).METHODS: In ...AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two populationbased hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography(AUS).METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per lifeyear gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental costeffectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening.CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval.展开更多
The optimal conditions for two-stage Kalman estimator with random bias of anARMA model is considered in this paper.First,the optimal augmented state Kalman fil-ter and the two-stage Kalman estimator are given.Second,u...The optimal conditions for two-stage Kalman estimator with random bias of anARMA model is considered in this paper.First,the optimal augmented state Kalman fil-ter and the two-stage Kalman estimator are given.Second,under an algebraic constraint,the equivalence between the two-stage Kalman estimator and the optimal augmented stateKalman filter is proved.Finally,because the given algebraic constraint are restrictive inpractice,the results thus obtained implies that two-stage Kalman estimator is suboptimal.展开更多
We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alte...We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alternative by the local linear method, where we ignore the parametric components, and then estimate the parameters by the two stage method. The test statistic is derived, and it is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis.展开更多
针对大深度环境水下发射技术需求,提出一种利用水压驱动两级提拉式水下新型发射方案。利用大深度环境高压水驱动两级活塞实现武器快速发射。建立武器出管过程动力学模型,开展高压水驱动方案原理验证试验,并与高压气体驱动方案进行了对...针对大深度环境水下发射技术需求,提出一种利用水压驱动两级提拉式水下新型发射方案。利用大深度环境高压水驱动两级活塞实现武器快速发射。建立武器出管过程动力学模型,开展高压水驱动方案原理验证试验,并与高压气体驱动方案进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:水压驱动与气体驱动方案的内弹道结果基本一致,高压水发射方案在大深度环境具有显著优势;加速度峰值出现在发射瞬时和级间转换过程,级间转换过程武器加速度存在显著的陡变现象;水下发射武器出管过程弹道预报结果得出,在发射水深100~500 m条件下,武器出管过程最大速度范围为7.4~15.3 m/s,最大加速度小于100 m/s 2;研究结果验证了水压驱动两级活塞式发射方案的可行性,为装置的进一步研制开发提供了设计依据。展开更多
随着电子健康记录(Electronic Health Record,EHR)的出现与广泛应用,基于EHR数据的预测模型可以起到早期检测和干预疾病的作用。异质属性在EHR数据中普遍存在,但是难以做到深度利用,因此可通过对数据样本进行异质属性融合的方法,为后续...随着电子健康记录(Electronic Health Record,EHR)的出现与广泛应用,基于EHR数据的预测模型可以起到早期检测和干预疾病的作用。异质属性在EHR数据中普遍存在,但是难以做到深度利用,因此可通过对数据样本进行异质属性融合的方法,为后续模型训练提供信息丰富的数据表征基础。本文设计一种高效的二阶段预测模型,用于解决重疾预测中存在的时效与成本等问题。该模型的第一阶段对病例样本进行粗粒度预测,将危重程度低的病例进行疾病初筛,起到提前分流病人的作用;第二阶段模型则基于第一阶段的粗滤结果,对潜在的危重病例进行更细粒度的预测。通过实验验证,经过异质属性融合处理后,在选择前6个时间点构造非时序模型时,二阶段模型可以较好地兼具疾病初筛以及疾病预测的效果。展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951002)the Dr.Western-funded Project of Chinese Academy of Science(XBBS201010 and XBBS201005)+1 种基金the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (51190095)the Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering(sklhse-2012-A03)
文摘This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing （ITSP）. The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro- vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of watershed, where three scenarios with different water re- sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri- culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock- breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.
基金National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project,China(No.71401173)
文摘The degradation process modeling is one of research hotspots of prognostic and health management(PHM),which can be used to estimate system reliability and remaining useful life(RUL).In order to study system degradation process,cumulative damage model is used for degradation modeling.Assuming that damage increment is Gamma distribution,shock counting subjects to a homogeneous Poisson process(HPP)when degradation process is linear,and shock counting is a non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP)when degradation process is nonlinear.A two-stage degradation system is considered in this paper,for which the degradation process is linear in the first stage and the degradation process is nonlinear in the second stage.A nonlinear modeling method for considered system is put forward,and reliability model and remaining useful life model are established.A case study is given to validate the veracities of established models.
基金Supported by Kaohsiung Municipal Min-Seng Hospital(KMSH 9702)
文摘AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two populationbased hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography(AUS).METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per lifeyear gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental costeffectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening.CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval.
文摘The optimal conditions for two-stage Kalman estimator with random bias of anARMA model is considered in this paper.First,the optimal augmented state Kalman fil-ter and the two-stage Kalman estimator are given.Second,under an algebraic constraint,the equivalence between the two-stage Kalman estimator and the optimal augmented stateKalman filter is proved.Finally,because the given algebraic constraint are restrictive inpractice,the results thus obtained implies that two-stage Kalman estimator is suboptimal.
文摘We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alternative by the local linear method, where we ignore the parametric components, and then estimate the parameters by the two stage method. The test statistic is derived, and it is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis.
文摘针对大深度环境水下发射技术需求,提出一种利用水压驱动两级提拉式水下新型发射方案。利用大深度环境高压水驱动两级活塞实现武器快速发射。建立武器出管过程动力学模型,开展高压水驱动方案原理验证试验,并与高压气体驱动方案进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:水压驱动与气体驱动方案的内弹道结果基本一致,高压水发射方案在大深度环境具有显著优势;加速度峰值出现在发射瞬时和级间转换过程,级间转换过程武器加速度存在显著的陡变现象;水下发射武器出管过程弹道预报结果得出,在发射水深100~500 m条件下,武器出管过程最大速度范围为7.4~15.3 m/s,最大加速度小于100 m/s 2;研究结果验证了水压驱动两级活塞式发射方案的可行性,为装置的进一步研制开发提供了设计依据。
文摘随着电子健康记录(Electronic Health Record,EHR)的出现与广泛应用,基于EHR数据的预测模型可以起到早期检测和干预疾病的作用。异质属性在EHR数据中普遍存在,但是难以做到深度利用,因此可通过对数据样本进行异质属性融合的方法,为后续模型训练提供信息丰富的数据表征基础。本文设计一种高效的二阶段预测模型,用于解决重疾预测中存在的时效与成本等问题。该模型的第一阶段对病例样本进行粗粒度预测,将危重程度低的病例进行疾病初筛,起到提前分流病人的作用;第二阶段模型则基于第一阶段的粗滤结果,对潜在的危重病例进行更细粒度的预测。通过实验验证,经过异质属性融合处理后,在选择前6个时间点构造非时序模型时,二阶段模型可以较好地兼具疾病初筛以及疾病预测的效果。
