Typhoon Rananim （0414） has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms （CAPS）. The prediction of Rananim has generally ...Typhoon Rananim （0414） has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms （CAPS）. The prediction of Rananim has generally been improved with ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data. Numerical experiments with or without using the radar data have shown that model initial fields with the assimilated radar radial velocity data in ARPS can change the wind field at the middle and high levels of the troposphere; fine characteristics of the tropical cyclone （TC） are introduced into the initial wind, the x component of wind speed south of the TC is increased and so is the y component west of it. They lead to improved forecasting of TC tracks for the time after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio, temperature, cloud water mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio have also been improved by using radar refiectivity data. The model＇s initial response to the introduction of hydrometeors has been increased. It is shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, by greatly improving the forecasting of TC rainfall, and heavy rainstorm of the TC specially, as well as its distribution and variation with time.展开更多
基金Technical Plan Key Project of Zhejiang Province (2006C13025)Key Subsidiary Project for Meteorological Science of Wenzhou (S200601)Technical Plan Key Project of Wenzhou (S2003A011)
文摘Typhoon Rananim （0414） has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms （CAPS）. The prediction of Rananim has generally been improved with ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data. Numerical experiments with or without using the radar data have shown that model initial fields with the assimilated radar radial velocity data in ARPS can change the wind field at the middle and high levels of the troposphere; fine characteristics of the tropical cyclone （TC） are introduced into the initial wind, the x component of wind speed south of the TC is increased and so is the y component west of it. They lead to improved forecasting of TC tracks for the time after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio, temperature, cloud water mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio have also been improved by using radar refiectivity data. The model＇s initial response to the introduction of hydrometeors has been increased. It is shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, by greatly improving the forecasting of TC rainfall, and heavy rainstorm of the TC specially, as well as its distribution and variation with time.
