China is one of the countries most severely suffering from tropical cyclones. The exact and timely forecasting and warning is of significant importance in fighting against tropical cyclones and mitigating their impact...China is one of the countries most severely suffering from tropical cyclones. The exact and timely forecasting and warning is of significant importance in fighting against tropical cyclones and mitigating their impacts on China. The numerical weather prediction(NWP)system for tropical cyclone rainfall and strong wind is going to play a more and more important role. There is also a need for timely and user friendly modern warning services in order to provide the governments and relevant authorities at all levels and general public with typhoon forecasts and information about the associated disasters and response strategy services.展开更多
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) can provide the profile information on atmospheric temperature and humidity in high vertical resolution. The assimilation of its radiances has been proven to improve the Numer...The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) can provide the profile information on atmospheric temperature and humidity in high vertical resolution. The assimilation of its radiances has been proven to improve the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in global models. In this study, regional assimilation of AIRS radiances was carried out in a community assimilation system, using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRY) model. The AIRS channel selection, quality control, and radiances bias correction were examined and illustrated for optimized assimilation. The bias correction scheme in the regional model showed that corrections on most of the channels produce satisfactory results except for several land surface channels. The assimilation and forecast experiments were carried out for three typhoon cases (Saola, Damrey, and Haikui in 2012) with and without including AIRS radiances. Results show that the assimilation of AIRS radiances into the WRF/GSI model improves both the typhoon track and intensity in a 72-hour forecast.展开更多
A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in whic...A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial field is adjusted by the sixth hour's typhoon report and the weak-constraint variational principle. Finally someforecast examples made by this typhoon model are given.展开更多
Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall w...Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment field.The results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast phase.Changes in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made landfall.The steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the members.Meanwhile,the forecast uncertainty increased.In summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some instances.The position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h forecast.The strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.展开更多
Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communit...Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models (model-ensembles). The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.展开更多
The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Lium...The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.展开更多
Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that ar...Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.展开更多
A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method isbased on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets aseries of...A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method isbased on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets aseries of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensembleforecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoonare chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method toperturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track forecast can improve accuracy, compared with the directuse of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa isprobably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initialposition perturbation.展开更多
Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller...Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller the wind time,as a result,the more difficult for the wind wave to fully grow. Hence.in typhoon wave numerical calculation it is impossible to use the model for a fully grown wave spectrum. Lately, the author et at. presented a CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves, where a model for the growing wave spectrum was set up (see Eq. (2) in the text). The model involves a parameter indicating the growing degree of wind wave, i. e. ,the mean wave age β. When βvalue is small, the wave energy is chiefly concentrated near the peak frequency, so that the spectral peak gets high and steep; with the increase of β the spectral shape gradually gets lower and gentler; when β=Ⅰ, the wave fully grows, the growing spectrum becomes a fully grown P-M spectrum. The model also shows a spectral “overshooting” phenomenon within the “balance zone”.展开更多
A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather pr...A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.展开更多
We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Fore...We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Observation data included radial velocity(Vr)and reflectivity(Z)data from a single Doppler radar,quality controlled prior to assimilation.Typhoon prediction results were evaluated and compared between the NLS-4DVar and MG-NLS4DVar methods.Compared with a forecast that began with NCEP analysis data,our radar data assimilation results were clearly improved in terms of structure,intensity,track,and precipitation prediction for Typhoon Haikui(2012).The results showed that the assimilation accuracy of the NLS-4DVar method was similar to that of the MG-NLS4DVar method,but that the latter was more efficient.The assimilation of Vr alone and Z alone each improved predictions of typhoon intensity,track,and precipitation;however,the impacts of Vr data were significantly greater that those of Z data.Assimilation window-length sensitivity experiments showed that a 6-h assimilation window with 30-min assimilation intervals produced slightly better results than either a 3-h assimilation window with 15-min assimilation intervals or a 1-h assimilation window with 6-min assimilation intervals.展开更多
In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by c...In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) could improve the short-range forecast of typhoons. The results show that the CNOPs capture the sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts, which implies that conducting additional observation in these specific regions and eliminating initial errors could reduce forecast errors. It is inferred from the results that dropping sondes in the CNOP sensitive regions could lead to improvements in typhoon forecasts.展开更多
文摘China is one of the countries most severely suffering from tropical cyclones. The exact and timely forecasting and warning is of significant importance in fighting against tropical cyclones and mitigating their impacts on China. The numerical weather prediction(NWP)system for tropical cyclone rainfall and strong wind is going to play a more and more important role. There is also a need for timely and user friendly modern warning services in order to provide the governments and relevant authorities at all levels and general public with typhoon forecasts and information about the associated disasters and response strategy services.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41601469) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China (East China Normal University). The experiments were run on the Supercomputer located at the Computing Center of East China Normal University.
文摘The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) can provide the profile information on atmospheric temperature and humidity in high vertical resolution. The assimilation of its radiances has been proven to improve the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in global models. In this study, regional assimilation of AIRS radiances was carried out in a community assimilation system, using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRY) model. The AIRS channel selection, quality control, and radiances bias correction were examined and illustrated for optimized assimilation. The bias correction scheme in the regional model showed that corrections on most of the channels produce satisfactory results except for several land surface channels. The assimilation and forecast experiments were carried out for three typhoon cases (Saola, Damrey, and Haikui in 2012) with and without including AIRS radiances. Results show that the assimilation of AIRS radiances into the WRF/GSI model improves both the typhoon track and intensity in a 72-hour forecast.
文摘A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial field is adjusted by the sixth hour's typhoon report and the weak-constraint variational principle. Finally someforecast examples made by this typhoon model are given.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421500)Shanghai Science and Technology Program (10231203700)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40921160381)
文摘Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment field.The results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast phase.Changes in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made landfall.The steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the members.Meanwhile,the forecast uncertainty increased.In summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some instances.The position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h forecast.The strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.
基金supported by the European Commission within FP7-THEME 6(Grant No.244104)the Natural Environment Research Council(NERC)of the UK(Grant No.NE/J005541/1)the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST)of Taiwan(Grant No.MOST 104-2221-E-006-183)
文摘Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models (model-ensembles). The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017YFC1501406)National Key Research and Development Plan Program of China(2017YFA0604500)CMA Youth Founding Program(Q201706&NWPC-QNJJ-201702)
文摘The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.
文摘Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.
基金"The System of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea",a project of the Scientific and Technological Plans for Guangdong Province(2003C32603)
文摘A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method isbased on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets aseries of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensembleforecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoonare chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method toperturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track forecast can improve accuracy, compared with the directuse of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa isprobably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initialposition perturbation.
基金The research reported was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller the wind time,as a result,the more difficult for the wind wave to fully grow. Hence.in typhoon wave numerical calculation it is impossible to use the model for a fully grown wave spectrum. Lately, the author et at. presented a CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves, where a model for the growing wave spectrum was set up (see Eq. (2) in the text). The model involves a parameter indicating the growing degree of wind wave, i. e. ,the mean wave age β. When βvalue is small, the wave energy is chiefly concentrated near the peak frequency, so that the spectral peak gets high and steep; with the increase of β the spectral shape gradually gets lower and gentler; when β=Ⅰ, the wave fully grows, the growing spectrum becomes a fully grown P-M spectrum. The model also shows a spectral “overshooting” phenomenon within the “balance zone”.
基金Specialized Research Project for Social Welfare from Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2005DIB3J104)Science and Technology Planning Project for Zhejiang Province (2007C23065)
文摘A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41575100)the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)。
文摘We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Observation data included radial velocity(Vr)and reflectivity(Z)data from a single Doppler radar,quality controlled prior to assimilation.Typhoon prediction results were evaluated and compared between the NLS-4DVar and MG-NLS4DVar methods.Compared with a forecast that began with NCEP analysis data,our radar data assimilation results were clearly improved in terms of structure,intensity,track,and precipitation prediction for Typhoon Haikui(2012).The results showed that the assimilation accuracy of the NLS-4DVar method was similar to that of the MG-NLS4DVar method,but that the latter was more efficient.The assimilation of Vr alone and Z alone each improved predictions of typhoon intensity,track,and precipitation;however,the impacts of Vr data were significantly greater that those of Z data.Assimilation window-length sensitivity experiments showed that a 6-h assimilation window with 30-min assimilation intervals produced slightly better results than either a 3-h assimilation window with 15-min assimilation intervals or a 1-h assimilation window with 6-min assimilation intervals.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955 and 40821092)the Project of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
文摘In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) could improve the short-range forecast of typhoons. The results show that the CNOPs capture the sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts, which implies that conducting additional observation in these specific regions and eliminating initial errors could reduce forecast errors. It is inferred from the results that dropping sondes in the CNOP sensitive regions could lead to improvements in typhoon forecasts.