An important decision for policy makers is selecting strategic petroleum reserve sites. However, policy makers may not choose the most suitable and efficient locations for strategic petroleum reserve（SPR） due to the...An important decision for policy makers is selecting strategic petroleum reserve sites. However, policy makers may not choose the most suitable and efficient locations for strategic petroleum reserve（SPR） due to the complexity in the choice of sites. This paper proposes a multi-objective programming model to determine the optimal locations for China＇s SPR storage sites. This model considers not only the minimum response time but also the minimum transportation cost based on a series of reasonable assumptions and constraint conditions. The factors influencing SPR sites are identified to determine potential demand points and candidate storage sites. Estimation and suggestions are made for the selection of China＇s future SPR storage sites based on the results of this model. When the number of petroleum storage sites is less than or equals 25 and the maximum capacity of storage sites is restricted to 10 million tonnes, the model＇s result best fit for the current layout scheme selected thirteen storage sites in four scenarios. Considering the current status of SPR in China,Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Daqing and Zhanjiang, Chengdu,Xi＇an, and Yueyang are suggested to be the candidate locations for the third phase of the construction plan. The locations of petroleum storage sites suggested in this work could be used as a reference for decision makers.展开更多
The potentiality that the current government strategic petroleum reserves (GSPRs) can be improved by the pre-allocation of GSPR drawing rights has been neglected. This paper proposes to pre-allocate the GSPR drawing r...The potentiality that the current government strategic petroleum reserves (GSPRs) can be improved by the pre-allocation of GSPR drawing rights has been neglected. This paper proposes to pre-allocate the GSPR drawing rights, and proves that by doing this the efficiency of GSPR and the society’s incentive to finance GSPR can be improved. Particularly, the example demonstrates that the incentive improvement can be very significant. Since it takes huge expenditure on GSPR and it is very important to gain support from the consumers by improving GSPR, the proposal is quite worth considering.展开更多
The problem of petroleum safety is closely related to national politics andeconomics security and becomes one of key for discussion in China. The floating oil storage systemhas been proposed as a new facility for Stra...The problem of petroleum safety is closely related to national politics andeconomics security and becomes one of key for discussion in China. The floating oil storage systemhas been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in our country. There aresome differences in solving this problem. Although many of domestic research institutions arestudying the project of SPR, the research is separate, and lack of comprehensive consideration, andfails to make a complete and scientific demonstration in many aspects, such as oil storage capacity,selection of storage sites, storage facilities, technologic and economic feasibility, riskassessment, etc. Therefore, no mature and systematic petroleum reserve theories have been formed upto now. Peoples argue the issue of objective of SPR, function, mode, cost, effect, etc. There arestill many bifurcations, so, it is necessary to make more detailed demonstration, and provide somescientific decision-making strategy for the governments. In this paper, several significant problemsare solved, for instance, the option of SPR facilities, the research on the principalcharacteristics of floating oil storage vessels, the a-nalysis of mooring system for oil storagevessels, the design of breakwater and the calculation of failure probability, the risk assessment offloating oil storage system, etc.展开更多
Due to engineering technology and development costs,a considerable amount of proven oil and gas resources in China are difficult to develop,becoming reserves difficult to produce.Based on the successful development of...Due to engineering technology and development costs,a considerable amount of proven oil and gas resources in China are difficult to develop,becoming reserves difficult to produce.Based on the successful development of some domestic oil and gas reserves difficult to recover,this article summarizes the"four in one"petroleum engineering synergetic management model to promote the effective development of these reserves.This model draws on the essence of management theories,such as system theory,cybernetics and synergetic theory,and proposes the development idea of value creating and sharing for this type of reserves.By adopting the new management method of mechanism synergy,speciality synergy,process synergy and industrial chain synergy,this model effectively overcomes the decentralization of management responsibility,different management objectives,great risks of engineering and technological innovation,and the large number of uncertain factors in project construction,and can stimulate the vitality and power of active coordination of project participants,to effectively realize the synergetic innovation of engineering technology and synergetic cost reduction of the whole chain,reduction of the balanced oil price of the project,and dispersion of the project investment risk.By adopting this model,a large proportion of difficult-to-produce reserves have been liberated,realizing the effective utilization of the difficult-to-produce oil and gas resources,and making the reserves an important supplement to ensure national energy security.展开更多
In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus r...In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71273277/71373285/71303258)the Philosophy and Social Sciences Major Research Project of the Ministry of Education (No. 11JZD048)
文摘An important decision for policy makers is selecting strategic petroleum reserve sites. However, policy makers may not choose the most suitable and efficient locations for strategic petroleum reserve（SPR） due to the complexity in the choice of sites. This paper proposes a multi-objective programming model to determine the optimal locations for China＇s SPR storage sites. This model considers not only the minimum response time but also the minimum transportation cost based on a series of reasonable assumptions and constraint conditions. The factors influencing SPR sites are identified to determine potential demand points and candidate storage sites. Estimation and suggestions are made for the selection of China＇s future SPR storage sites based on the results of this model. When the number of petroleum storage sites is less than or equals 25 and the maximum capacity of storage sites is restricted to 10 million tonnes, the model＇s result best fit for the current layout scheme selected thirteen storage sites in four scenarios. Considering the current status of SPR in China,Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Daqing and Zhanjiang, Chengdu,Xi＇an, and Yueyang are suggested to be the candidate locations for the third phase of the construction plan. The locations of petroleum storage sites suggested in this work could be used as a reference for decision makers.
文摘The potentiality that the current government strategic petroleum reserves (GSPRs) can be improved by the pre-allocation of GSPR drawing rights has been neglected. This paper proposes to pre-allocate the GSPR drawing rights, and proves that by doing this the efficiency of GSPR and the society’s incentive to finance GSPR can be improved. Particularly, the example demonstrates that the incentive improvement can be very significant. Since it takes huge expenditure on GSPR and it is very important to gain support from the consumers by improving GSPR, the proposal is quite worth considering.
文摘The problem of petroleum safety is closely related to national politics andeconomics security and becomes one of key for discussion in China. The floating oil storage systemhas been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in our country. There aresome differences in solving this problem. Although many of domestic research institutions arestudying the project of SPR, the research is separate, and lack of comprehensive consideration, andfails to make a complete and scientific demonstration in many aspects, such as oil storage capacity,selection of storage sites, storage facilities, technologic and economic feasibility, riskassessment, etc. Therefore, no mature and systematic petroleum reserve theories have been formed upto now. Peoples argue the issue of objective of SPR, function, mode, cost, effect, etc. There arestill many bifurcations, so, it is necessary to make more detailed demonstration, and provide somescientific decision-making strategy for the governments. In this paper, several significant problemsare solved, for instance, the option of SPR facilities, the research on the principalcharacteristics of floating oil storage vessels, the a-nalysis of mooring system for oil storagevessels, the design of breakwater and the calculation of failure probability, the risk assessment offloating oil storage system, etc.
文摘Due to engineering technology and development costs,a considerable amount of proven oil and gas resources in China are difficult to develop,becoming reserves difficult to produce.Based on the successful development of some domestic oil and gas reserves difficult to recover,this article summarizes the"four in one"petroleum engineering synergetic management model to promote the effective development of these reserves.This model draws on the essence of management theories,such as system theory,cybernetics and synergetic theory,and proposes the development idea of value creating and sharing for this type of reserves.By adopting the new management method of mechanism synergy,speciality synergy,process synergy and industrial chain synergy,this model effectively overcomes the decentralization of management responsibility,different management objectives,great risks of engineering and technological innovation,and the large number of uncertain factors in project construction,and can stimulate the vitality and power of active coordination of project participants,to effectively realize the synergetic innovation of engineering technology and synergetic cost reduction of the whole chain,reduction of the balanced oil price of the project,and dispersion of the project investment risk.By adopting this model,a large proportion of difficult-to-produce reserves have been liberated,realizing the effective utilization of the difficult-to-produce oil and gas resources,and making the reserves an important supplement to ensure national energy security.
文摘In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.
