Ranking method for the reciprocal judgment matrix based on the unascertained three-valued judgments

The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons values are denoted by the unascertained three-valued reciprocal scales. By turning the reciprocal judgment matrix into attribute judgment matrix, the method to check the consistency of the pairwise comparisons judgment matrix and the calculation method of weighting coefficients are given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Assessment of Traffic Safety State of Ship Based on Unascertained Measure

Using the theory and method of unascertained measure, an unascertained measure model and the related confidence rule are established to assess the safety state of ship. Thus, the dangerous factors in the hull system can be identified, and the accident possibility, loss, and injury degree can be forcasted. An application result shows that the the proposed method is effective in assessment of the traffic safety of ships, and it is more simple in computation than the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The proposed method can provide a scientific basis for realizing shipping transportation security and formulating preventive measures.

广义集合概念及其内涵剖析

在剖析C an tor集合、Fuzzy集合、R ough集合、Ex tension集合、G rey集合;U nascerta ined集合、U n iversal G rey集合、V ague集合概念内涵的基础上,建立了广义集合(G eneralized sets)概念,并在对其内涵进行剖析的基础上讨论了它的基本性质。

Proposing a novel comprehensive evaluation model for the coal burst liability in underground coal mines considering uncertainty factors

Coal burst is a severe hazard that can result in fatalities and damage of facilities in underground coal mines.To address this issue,a robust unascertained combination model is proposed to study the coal burst hazard based on an updated database.Four assessment indexes are used in the model,which are the dynamic failure duration(DT),elastic energy index(WET),impact energy index(KE)and uniaxial compressive strength(RC).Four membership functions,including linear(L),parabolic(P),S and Weibull(W)functions,are proposed to measure the uncertainty level of individual index.The corresponding weights are determined through information entropy(EN),analysis hierarchy process(AHP)and synthetic weights(CW).Simultaneously,the classification criteria,including unascertained cluster(UC)and credible identification principle(CIP),are analyzed.The combination algorithm,consisting of P function,CW and CIP(P-CW-CIP),is selected as the optimal classification model in function of theory analysis and to train the samples.Ultimately,the established ensemble model is further validated through test samples with 100%accuracy.The results reveal that the hybrid model has a great potential in the coal burst hazard evaluation in underground coal mines.

Measuring Research on County Agricultural Technological Innovation Ability Index

Taking the mechanism of technological construction guidance theory and mode which consists of "objective-construction-evaluation-construction-objective" as a starting point, on the basis of county agricultural technological innovation ability and its index definition, this paper researches the constructing system of county agricultural technological innovation ability. Firstly, on the basis of defining county agricultural technological innovation ability and the definition of index, according to the principle of purposefulness, scientificity, systematicness, integration of dynamic state and static state, integration of quantitativeness and qualitativeness and so on, we construct the multi-level measuring system of county agricultural technological innovation ability, including 4 first-level indices, namely technological innovation environment, technological innovation basis, technological innovation ability, and technological innovation efficiency; 15 second-level indices, such as technological policy, technological system mechanism, technological institution construction, ability of innovation subject, ability of industrial expansion, scale merit, technological contribution rate. Moreover, this system has 45 third-level indices. Then, by using unascertained mathematics method and AHM method, we establish the multi-level unascertained composite measuring model of county agricultural technological innovation ability index. Finally, by using the survey data of one county in Hebei Province, and the established county agricultural technological innovation ability index model, we get the county agricultural technological innovation ability index of 0.711 by calculation, that is, the innovation ability is at the intermediate level, namely the modern agricultural sub-stage. The empirical research proves the correctness and applicability of this model.

An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and property.Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes,leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods.The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature.Rainfall,tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes.Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method,and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points.Finally,based on the system reliability theory,we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events.The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.