ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

Prediction of the Biaxial Failure Strength of Composite Laminates with Unit Cell Analytic Model

A new method to predict the ultimate strength of fiber reinforced composites under arbitrary load condition is introduced. The micromechanics strength theory is used to perform the final failure prediction of composite laminates. The theory is based on unit cell analytic model which can provide the ply composite material properties by only using the constituent fiber and matrix properties and the laminate geometric parameters without knowing any experimental information of the laminates. To show that this method is suitable for predicting the strength of composite laminates, the micromechanics strength theory is ranked by comparing it with all the micro-level and the best two macro-level theories chosen from the World Wide Failure Exercise. The results show that this method can be used for predicting strength of any composite laminates and provide a direct reference for composite optimum design.

Controller design based on viscoelasticity dynamics model and experiment for flexible drive unit

In order to ensure that the system has the advantage of light weight and vibration absorption, the steel rope is used as a flexible transmission part. A flexible drive unit(FDU) is developed, whose features are guided by steel rope, increasing force by the movable pulley group, modular, convenient and flexible. Dynamics model for controller is deduced based on the constitutive equation of viscoelasticity. Controller is designed for position control and is based on the viscoelasticity dynamics model compensation control strategy proposed. The control system is based on the TURBO PMAC multi-axis motion control card.Prototype loading experiments and velocity experiments results show that the FDU can reach 2 Hz with no load and the max speed of 30(°)/s. The FDU has the capability of the load torque 11.2 N·m and the speed of 24(°)/s simultaneously, and the frequency response is 1.3 Hz. The FDU can be used to be the pitch joint of hip for biped robot whose walking speed is 0.144 km/h theoretically.

Nonlinear Mathematical Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Drive Unit

The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displacement changes of the piston are ignored, even experiment verification is not conducted. Therefore, in view of deficiencies above, a nonlinear mathematical model is established in this paper, including dynamic characteristics of servo valve, nonlinear characteristics of pressure-flow, initial displacement of servo cylinder piston and friction nonlinearity. The transfer function block diagram is built for the hydraulic drive unit closed loop position control, as well as the state equations. Through deriving the time-varying coefficient items matrix and time-varying free items matrix of sensitivity equations respectively, the expression of sensitivity equations based on the nonlinear mathematical model are obtained. According to structure parameters of hydraulic drive unit, working parameters, fluid transmission characteristics and measured friction-velocity curves, the simulation analysis of hydraulic drive unit is completed on the MATLAB/Simulink simulation platform with the displacement step 2 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the developed nonlinear mathematical model is sufficient by comparing the characteristic curves of experimental step response and simulation step response under different constant load. Then, the sensitivity function time-history curves of seventeen parameters are obtained, basing on each state vector time-history curve of step response characteristic. The maximum value of displacement variation percentage and the sum of displacement variation absolute values in the sampling time are both taken as sensitivity indexes. The sensitivity indexes values above are calculated and shown visually in histograms under different working conditions, and change rules are analyzed. Then the sensitivity indexes values of four measurable parameters, such as supply pressure, proportional gain, initial position of servo cylinder piston and load force, are verified experimentally on test platform of hydraulic drive unit, and the experimental research shows that the sensitivity analysis results obtained through simulation are approximate to the test results. This research indicates each parameter sensitivity characteristics of hydraulic drive unit, the performance-affected main parameters and secondary parameters are got under different working conditions, which will provide the theoretical foundation for the control compensation and structure optimization of hydraulic drive unit.

Thermal Model of High-Speed Spindle Units

For the purpose to facilitate development of high-speed Spindle Units (SUs) running on rolling bearings, we have developed a beam element model, algorithms, and software for computer analysis of thermal characteristics of SUs. The thermal model incorporates a model of heat generation in rolling bearings, a model of heat transfer from bearings, and models for estimation of temperature and temperature deformations of SU elements. We have carried out experimental test and made quantitative evaluation of the effect of operation conditions on friction and thermal characteristics of the SUs of grinding and turning machines of typical structures. It is found that the operation conditions make stronger effect on SU temperatures when rpm increases. A comparison between the results of analysis and experiment proves their good mutual correspondence and allows us to recommend application of the models and software developed for design and research of high-speed SUs running on rolling bearings.

Equality Testing for Soil Grid Unit Resolutions to Polygon Unit Scales with DNDC Modeling of Regional SOC Pools

Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit map scales is important to minimize the uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon(SOC) pool simulation due to their strong influences on the modeling.A series of soil grid units at varying cell sizes was derived from soil polygon units at six map scales,namely,1:50 000(C5),1:200 000(D2),1:500 000(P5),1:1 000 000(N1),1:4 000 000(N4) and 1:14 000 000(N14),in the Taihu Region of China.Both soil unit formats were used for regional SOC pool simulation with a De Nitrification-DeC omposition(DNDC) process-based model,which spans the time period from 1982 to 2000 at the six map scales.Four indices,namely,soil type number(STN),area(AREA),average SOC density(ASOCD) and total SOC stocks(SOCS) of surface paddy soils that were simulated by the DNDC,were distinguished from all these soil polygon and grid units.Subjecting to the four index values(IV) from the parent polygon units,the variations in an index value(VIV,%) from the grid units were used to assess its dataset accuracy and redundancy,which reflects the uncertainty in the simulation of SOC pools.Optimal soil grid unit resolutions were generated and suggested for the DNDC simulation of regional SOC pools,matching their respective soil polygon unit map scales.With these optimal raster resolutions,the soil grid units datasets can have the same accuracy as their parent polygon units datasets without any redundancy,when VIV < 1% was assumed to be a criterion for all four indices.A quadratic curve regression model,namely,y = – 0.80 × 10^(–6)x^2 + 0.0228 x + 0.0211(R^2 = 0.9994,P < 0.05),and a power function model R? = 10.394?^(0.2153)(R^2 = 0.9759,P < 0.05) were revealed,which describe the relationship between the optimal soil grid unit resolution(y,km) and soil polygon unit map scale(1:10 000x),the ratio(R?,%) of the optimal soil grid size to average polygon patch size(?,km^2) and the ?,with the highest R^2 among different mathematical regressions,respectively.This knowledge may facilitate the grid partitioning of regions during the investigation and simulation of SOC pool dynamics at a certain map scale,and be referenced to other landscape polygon patches' mesh partition.

Elastic Predictions of 3D Orthogonal Woven Composites Using Micro/meso-scale Repeated Unit Cell Models

This presentation predicts the elastic properties of three-dimensional(3D)orthogonal woven composite(3DOWC)by finite element analysis based on micro/meso repeated unit cell(RUC)models.First,the properties of fiber yarn are obtained by analysis on a micro-scale RUC model assuming fibers in a hexagonal distribution pattern in the polymer matrix.Then a full thickness meso-scale RUC model including weft yarns,warp yarns,Z-yarns and pure resin zones is established and full stiffness matrix of the 3DOWC including the in-plane and flexural constants are predicted.For thick 3DOWC with large number of weft,warp layers,an alternative analysis method is proposed in which an inner meso-RUC and a surface meso-RUC are established,respectively.Then the properties of 3DOWC are deduced based on laminate theory and properties of the inner and surface layers.The predicted results by the above two alternative methods are in good experimental agreement.

A thermodynamic model of calculating mass action concentrations for structural units or ion couples in NaClO_4-H_2O and NaF-H_2O binary solutions and NaClO_4-NaF-H_2O ternary solution

A thermodynamic model of calculating mass action concentrations for structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-H2O and NaF-H2O binary solutions and NaClO4-NaF-H2O ternary strong electrolyte aqueous solutions was developed based on the ion and molecule coexistence theory （IMCT）. A transformation coefficient was needed to compare the calculated mass action concentration and the reported activity, because they were usually obtained at different standard states and concentration units. The results show that transformation coefficients between the calculated mass action concentrations and the reported activities of the same components change in a very narrow range. The transformed mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-H2O and NaF-H2O binary solutions agree well with the reported activities. The transformed mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-NaF-H2O ternary solution are also in good agreement with the reported activities in a total ionic strength range from 0.1 to 0.9 mol/kg H2O by the 0.1 mol/kg step with different ionic strength fractions of 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, and 1, respectively. The results indicate that the developed thermodynamic model can reveal the structural characteristics of binary and ternary strong electrolyte aqueous solutions, and the calculated mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples also strictly follow the mass action law.

基于DP-Modeler的实景三维校园精细化模型构建

无人机倾斜摄影测量自动化三维建模技术具备高效率、低成本和高精度的特点,已经得到了广泛应用。为了进一步提升实景三维模型的质量,以防灾科技学院校园为例,在实景三维模型自动化构建基础上,利用DP-Modeler完成了三维场景的修饰和建筑物精细化单体建模。结果表明:DP-Modeler软件直接在倾斜三维模型上交互式单体化建模,具有自动化程度高、简单易用等特点,能够有效提升三维建模的效率,所构建的实景三维模型能够客观真实地反映校园场景。

Logic Picture-Based Dynamic Power Estimation for Unit Gate-Delay Model CMOS Circuits

In this research, a fast methodology to calculate the exact value of the average dynamic power consumption for CMOS combinational logic circuits is developed. The delay model used is the unit-delay model where all gates have the same propagation delay. The main advantages of this method over other techniques are its accuracy, as it is deterministic and it requires less computational effort compared to exhaustive simulation approaches. The methodology uses the Logic Pictures concept for obtaining the nodes’ toggle rates. The proposed method is applied to well-known circuits and the results are compared to exhaustive simulation and Monte Carlosimulation methods.

A finite element modeling of the human lumbar unit including the spinal cord

The purpose of this present work is to provide a tool to better understand mechanically related pathologies of the lumbar unit and the spinal structure by providing spinal cord deformations in different loading cases. In fact, spinal cord injury (SCI) resulting from a traumatic movement leades to a deformation of the neural and vascular structure of the spinal cord. And since the magnitude of the spinal cord stress is correlated with the pressure of the vertebral elements, stresses will be computed on all theses components. Physical properties of the vertebrae, various ligaments, the discs, and the spinal cord are described under simple loading as compression, and combined loading, flexion and lateral bending to evaluate the pressure undergone by different components of the lumbar unit. A nonlinear three-dimensional finite element method is used as a numerical tool to perform all the computations. This study provides accurate results for the localisation and the magnitude of maximum equivalent stress and shear stress on the lumbar unit and especially for the spinal cord. These results showed that stresses are more important when a compression of 500 N is combined with a flexion and a lateral bending. In particular, shear stresses are maximum for the spinal cord and the four intervertebral discs for the case of a flexion of 3.8 N.m and a lateral bending of 6.5 N.m.

Unleashing the Power of Information Theory: Enhancing Accuracy in Modeling Physical Phenomena

When building a model of a physical phenomenon or process, scientists face an inevitable compromise between the simplicity of the model (qualitative-quantitative set of variables) and its accuracy. For hundreds of years, the visual simplicity of a law testified to the genius and depth of the physical thinking of the scientist who proposed it. Currently, the desire for a deeper physical understanding of the surrounding world and newly discovered physical phenomena motivates researchers to increase the number of variables considered in a model. This direction leads to an increased probability of choosing an inaccurate or even erroneous model. This study describes a method for estimating the limit of measurement accuracy, taking into account the stage of model building in terms of storage, transmission, processing and use of information by the observer. This limit, due to the finite amount of information stored in the model, allows you to select the optimal number of variables for the best reproduction of the observed object and calculate the exact values of the threshold discrepancy between the model and the phenomenon under study in measurement theory. We consider two examples: measurement of the speed of sound and measurement of physical constants.

Optimization of a precise integration method for seismic modeling based on graphic processing unit

General purpose graphic processing unit （GPU） calculation technology is gradually widely used in various fields. Its mode of single instruction, multiple threads is capable of seismic numerical simulation which has a huge quantity of data and calculation steps. In this study, we introduce a GPU-based parallel calculation method of a precise integration method （PIM） for seismic forward modeling. Compared with CPU single-core calculation, GPU parallel calculating perfectly keeps the features of PIM, which has small bandwidth, high accuracy and capability of modeling complex substructures, and GPU calculation brings high computational efficiency, which means that high-performing GPU parallel calculation can make seismic forward modeling closer to real seismic records.

LVP Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics Prediction of A Hydraulic Power Unit in Deep-Sea

A hydraulic power unit （HPU） is the driving ＂heart＂ of deep-sea working equipment. It is critical to predict its dynamic performances in deep-water before being immerged in the seawater, while the experimental tests by simulating deep-sea environment have many disadvantages, such as expensive cost, long test cycles, and difficult to achieve low-temperature simulation, which is only used as a supplementary means for confirmatory experiment. This paper proposes a novel theoretical approach based on the linear varying parameters （LVP） modeling to foresee the dynamic performances of the driving unit. Firstly, based on the varying environment features, dynamic expressions of the compressibility and viscosity of hydranlic oil are derived to reveal the fluid performances changing. Secondly, models of hydraulic system and electrical system are accomplished respectively through studying the control process and energy transfer, and then LVP models of the pressure and flow rate control is obtained through the electro-hydraulic models integration. Thirdly, dynamic characteristics of HPU are obtained by the model simulating within bounded closed sets of varying parameters. Finally, the developed HPU is tested in a deep-sea imitating hull, and the experimental results are well consistent with the theoretical analysis outcomes, which clearly declare that the LVP modeling is a rational way to foresee dynamic performances of HPU. The research approach and model analysis results can be applied to the predictions of working properties and product designs for other deep-sea hydraulic pump.

论企业合规改革中的个人模式与组织模式关系

在单位犯罪归责理论中,个人模式最大程度地契合了传统刑事责任理论,但其理论缺陷也较为明显,即无法适用于大型去中心化的现代企业,可能造成企业责任的严格化。组织模式充分契合了现代化的组织特征,对于激励企业合规也具有重要意义,然而,倡导组织模式不意味着对传统责任理论的摒弃,强调组织体绝对独立性的观点并不值得提倡。更合适的理论方案是,将个人模式与组织模式进行有益调和。如此,一则维持了传统刑事责任理论,不至于突破传统刑法;二则充分结合了现代组织特征,具有更强的合理性;三则有利于激励企业合规,以实现国家规制与企业自治的二元共治。

An Examination of Male and Female Monthly Employment Rates over Time in Canada and the United States Using Hidden Markov Probability Models

In this paper, we will illustrate the use and power of Hidden Markov models in analyzing multivariate data over time. The data used in this study was obtained from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD. Stat database url: https://stats.oecd.org/) and encompassed monthly data on the employment rate of males and females in Canada and the United States (aged 15 years and over;seasonally adjusted from January 1995 to July 2018). Two different underlying patterns of trends in employment over the 23 years observation period were uncovered.

基于CNN-GRU-ISSA-XGBoost的短期光伏功率预测

针对光伏功率随机性及波动性大,单一预测模型往往难以准确分析历史数据波动规律,从而导致预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于卷积神经网络-门控循环单元(CNN-GRU)和改进麻雀搜索算法(ISSA)优化的极限梯度提升(XGBoost)模型的短期光伏功率预测组合模型.首先去除历史数据中的异常值并对其进行归一化处理,利用主成分分析法(PCA)进行特征选取,以便更好地识别影响光伏功率的关键因素.然后采用CNN网络提取数据的空间特征,再经过GRU网络提取时间特征,针对XGBoost模型手动配置参数困难、随机性大的问题,利用ISSA对模型超参数寻优.最后对两种方法预测的结果用误差倒数法减小误差的同时对权重进行更新,得到新的预测值,从而完成对光伏功率的预测.实验结果表明,所提出的CNN-GRU-ISSA-XGBoost组合模型具有更强的适应性和更高的精度.

考虑负荷侧惯量不确定性的机组组合

针对新能源高占比电力系统的频率安全问题和频率安全评价指标中只考虑电源侧惯量的问题,提出一种考虑电源侧惯量和负荷侧惯量并计及预测误差随机性的安全约束机组组合优化模型。首先,推导包含系统整体惯量的频率变化率和频率最低点公式。然后,深入研究电网调度运行的不确定因素,利用蒙特卡洛对风电功率预测误差概率分布模型抽样生成典型场景,利用随机规划理论对负荷侧惯量预测误差建模,在机会约束规划的基础上将其纳入频率约束中,建立随机机会约束的频率安全机组组合优化模型。最后,通过改进的10机算例,验证所提模型的经济性和频率安全性。

基于麻雀算法优化支持向量机的NOx浓度预测

煤炭作为火电厂发电的主要能源,其在锅炉内焚烧过程中会产生大量的氮氧化物。各电厂一般利用烟气自动监控系统对其浓度进行实时测量,但由于测量时存在较大迟延,不能准确地反映SCR系统NOx浓度的实时变化。因此提出了一种基于改进麻雀算法优化最小二乘支持向量机的NOX浓度预测方法。首先,引入余弦因子改进麻雀算法中的比例算子,将迭代次数信息引入到迭代过程中,平衡算法前后期的全局与局部搜索能力。其次,使用新的变异算子代替原算子,将混沌理论融合到麻雀算法,解决了算法全局搜索能力较差、初始化麻雀分布不稳定及发现者位置更新方式不足的问题。最后,采用改进麻雀算法(CDE-SSA)对最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)进行参数寻优。实验结果证明,方法在NOX浓度预测的精度和稳定性上均表现出了良好的性能。

基于循环神经网络的2-DOF软体机械臂运动建模与控制

因现有软体机械臂材料刚度小、模量不稳定,导致建模与控制难度大.提出一种基于循环神经网络(recurrentneuralnetwork,RNN)的方法,用于二自由度(two-degree-of-freedom,2-DOF)软体机械臂的运动建模与控制.使用动作捕捉仪采集不同气压、负载下的位置坐标,并将其导入门控循环单元(gated recurrentunit,GRU)神经网络模型进行训练.当调节超参数至网络结构最优时,测试集准确度可达98.87%.在此基础上,构建气压与负载到末端位置的映射函数.实验结果表明,本方法可将机械臂的控制精度提升至6»8 mm,显著降低了软体机器人的控制与建模难度.