Establishing and clinically validating a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer significantly impacts global health,with unplanned reoperations post-surgery being key determinants of patient outcomes.Existing predictive models for these reoperations lack precision in integrating complex clinical data.AIM To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer patients.METHODS Data of patients treated for colorectal cancer(n=2044)at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and Wenzhou Central Hospital from March 2020 to March 2022 were retrospectively collected.Patients were divided into an experimental group(n=60)and a control group(n=1984)according to unplanned reoperation occurrence.Patients were also divided into a training group and a validation group(7:3 ratio).We used three different machine learning methods to screen characteristic variables.A nomogram was created based on multifactor logistic regression,and the model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and decision curve analysis.The risk scores of the two groups were calculated and compared to validate the model.RESULTS More patients in the experimental group were≥60 years old,male,and had a history of hypertension,laparotomy,and hypoproteinemia,compared to the control group.Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the following as independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation(P<0.05):Prognostic Nutritional Index value,history of laparotomy,hypertension,or stroke,hypoproteinemia,age,tumor-node-metastasis staging,surgical time,gender,and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model had good discrimination and clinical utility.CONCLUSION This study used a machine learning approach to build a model that accurately predicts the risk of postoperative unplanned reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer,which can improve treatment decisions and prognosis.

Predictive value of the unplanned extubation risk assessment scale in hospitalized patients with tubes

BACKGROUND Critical patients often had various types of tubes,unplanned extubation of any kind of tube may cause serious injury to the patient,but previous reports mainly focused on endotracheal intubation.The limitations or incorrect use of the unplanned extubation risk assessment tool may lead to improper identification of patients at a high risk of unplanned extubation and cause delay or nonimplementation of unplanned extubation prevention interventions.To effectively identify and manage the risk of unplanned extubation,a comprehensive and universal unplanned extubation risk assessment tool is needed.AIM To assess the predictive value of the Huaxi Unplanned Extubation Risk Assessment Scale in inpatients.METHODS This was a retrospective validation study.In this study,medical records were extracted between October 2020 and September 2021 from a tertiary comprehensive hospital in southwest China.For patients with tubes during hospitalization,the following information was extracted from the hospital information system:age,sex,admission mode,education,marital status,number of tubes,discharge mode,unplanned extubation occurrence,and the Huaxi Unplanned Extubation Risk Assessment Scale(HUERAS)score.Only inpatients were included,and those with indwelling needles were excluded.The best cut-off value and the area under the curve(AUC)of the Huaxi Unplanned Extubation Risk Assessment Scale were been identified.RESULTS A total of 76033 inpatients with indwelling tubes were included in this study,and 26 unplanned extubations occurred.The patients’HUERAS scores were between 11 and 30,with an average score of 17.25±3.73.The scores of patients with or without unplanned extubation were 22.85±3.28 and 17.25±3.73,respectively(P<0.001).The results of the correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between each characteristic and the total score ranged from 0.183 to 0.843.The best cut-off value was 21,and there were 14135 patients with a high risk of unplanned extubation,accounting for 18.59%.The Cronbach’sα,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,and negative predictive value of the Huaxi Unplanned Extubation Risk Assessment Scale were 0.815,84.62%,81.43%,0.16%,and 99.99%,respectively.The AUC of HUERAS was 0.851(95%CI:0.783-0.919,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The HUERAS has good reliability and predictive validity.It can effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of unplanned extubation and help clinical nurses carry out risk screening and management.

Risk or Beneficial Factors Associated with Unplanned Revascularization Risk Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Large Single-Center Data

Objective To analyze factors associated with unplanned revascularization(UR) risk in patients with coronary artery disease(CAD) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).Methods A total of 10,640 cases with CAD who underwent PCI were analyzed. Multivariate COX regressions and competing risk regressions were applied.Results The patients who underwent UR following PCI in 30 days, 1, and 2 years accounted for 0.3%,6.5%, and 8.7%, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, the number of target lesions [hazard ratio(HR) = 2.320;95% confidence interval(CI): 1.643–3.277;P < 0.001], time of procedure(HR = 1.006;95%CI: 1.001–1.010;P = 0.014), body mass index(HR = 1.104;95% CI: 1.006–1.210;P = 0.036), incomplete revascularization(ICR)(HR = 2.476;95% CI: 1.030–5.952;P = 0.043), and age(HR = 1.037;95% CI:1.000–1.075;P = 0.048) were determined as independent risk factors of 30-day UR. Factors, including low-molecular-weight heparin or fondaparinux(HR = 0.618;95% CI: 0.531–0.719;P < 0.001), secondgeneration durable polymer drug-eluting stent(HR = 0.713;95% CI: 0.624–0.814;P < 0.001), left anterior descending artery involvement(HR = 0.654;95% CI: 0.530–0.807;P < 0.001), and age(HR = 0.992;95%CI: 0.985–0.998;P = 0.014), were independently associated with decreased two-year UR risk. While,Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery score(HR =1.024;95% CI: 1.014–1.033;P < 0.001) and ICR(HR = 1.549;95% CI: 1.290–1.860;P < 0.001) were negatively associated with two-year UR risk.Conclusion Specific factors were positively or negatively associated with short-and medium-long-term UR following PCI.

Trauma Patient Unplanned Hospital Re-Admissions

Introduction: Performance monitoring and performance improvement (PI) are increasingly important. Little is known regarding unplanned re-admission (UPR) in trauma patients. This study characterizes UPRs at one institution. Methods: Retrospective descriptive review of UPR to a Level I Trauma Center Information was obtained on: initial trauma diagnoses, diagnosis precipitating UPR, discharge interval, treatment rendered and length of stay (LOS) during both encounters, and PI committee judgments. Characteristics of UPR patients were determined and compared to those of all discharged patients. Descriptive statistics were applied. Results: Over 2.5 years there were 2827 discharges and 58 UPR(2%). The majority of original diagnoses were related to blunt trauma and head injuries. UPR occurred at a median of 3 days, with 54% re-admitted to the trauma service. Operative rate for UPR patients during the initial admission was 48% with 28%requiring operation on the UPR. Headache and wound issues were responsible for 42% of UPR. Diagnosis precipitating UPR was primarily related to post-operative complications in 26% of all UPR and 57% of those undergoing operation on the initial admission. Median LOS for UPR was 3days with ICU care being required by 13%. Of all UPRs,33% were attributable to opportunities for improved care (OFI) during the first admission. Identified OFIs were related to errors in technique (53%), errors in judgment (27%), and system issues (20%). Of UPR without OFI, 87% were related to disease and13% systems issues. Conclusion: UPR at a Level I trauma center is rare, occurs shortly after discharge, is brief in duration and usually related to postoperative wound issues or headache. Post operative patients seem at greater risk for UPR. While most UPR are considered non-preventable, attention to discharge instructions,patient education, resident education and supervisionand outpatient support, may obviate a number of preventable UPRs.

The Effect of Unplanned Pregnancy among Women Collage in Wadajir Distract Moqdisho Somalia

Unplanned pregnancy is a pregnancy that is either mistimed or unwanted at the time of conception. It is a core concept in understanding the fertility of populations and the unmet need for contraception. Unintended pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of morbidity for women, and with health behaviors during pregnancy with adverse effects. And the aim of this study is to establish the level of effect of the unplanned pregnancy in women college in Wadajir district. This study used a cross-sectional study design. And the aim of this study is to establish the level of effect of the unplanned pregnancy on women college in Wadajir district. This study was being used cross sectional study design. This research had undertaken Wadajir district in Banadir region Mogadishu-Somalia. The sample size was 60 participating in the data collection phase from 1-30 Jun 2020. This study used primary data. This was collected from respondents in the area of study. Data was collected using a pre-cod structured questionnaire for the survey. Data showed that: 39 (65%) of the respondents answered yes that lack of education caused most unplanned pregnancy, 40 (66%) said that low-income countries are the risk factor of unplanned pregnancy, 47 (78%) of the respondents answered family planning is most common preventive for unplanned pregnancy, and 0 (67%) said that school dropout is the most compilation of unplanned pregnancy. Based on the findings of this research, the knowledge of the majority of respondents about unplanned pregnancy among women college replied yes, and they also replied that the most cause of unplanned pregnancy among women college is lack of education.

Modelling and Simulation of Performance of the Microgrid Frequency Stability Control during Unplanned Islanding: The Case Study of Mwenga Hydropower

A grid connected microgrid connects to the grid at a point of common coupling. Due to the great inertia of the grid which accelerates and decelerates the generator when its frequency tends to deviate, the grid connected microgrid operates at a frequency of the infinity bus. Frequency instability is one of the major challenges facing the grid connected microgrid during islanding. The power demand variation causes the variation in rotor speed, resulting to frequency deviation. Frequency can be brought back to standard by varying the power generation to match with the varying load. The performance of the frequency stability control system at Mwenga hydroelectric microgrid has been studied. Through site visitation, the power demand and generation status data were collected and analysed for model preparation. The results of the study indicate that, during islanding, the Mwenga rural electrification project is observed to be subjected to power imbalance which leads to frequency instability. Although the frequency control system tries to keep the system at a nominal frequency by maintaining the continuous balance between generation and varying load demand, however the system still operates with large magnitude of overshoot, undershoot and longer settling time.

Reducing the Rate of Unplanned Extubation of Venous Access in Perioperative Patients

Objective:To investigate the application effect of quality control circle activities in reducing the rate of unplanned extubation of venous access in perioperative patients.Methods:The quality control circle method was used to analyze the causes,identify the actual causes of unplanned out-of-control,take corresponding measures,formulate corresponding countermeasures,implement standardized management,and carry out continuous improvement.Results:Following the implementation of quality control circle activities,the rate of unplanned extubation of venous access in perioperative patients decreased from 27.35%before improvement to 3.42%after improvement.Conclusion:The use of quality control circle activities in the safety management of venous access in perioperative patients is conducive to reducing the rate of unplanned extubation of venous access in perioperative patients.

罗斯曼指数对老年髋膝关节置换后非计划再入院和并发症的影响

背景:人工髋膝关节置换术在老年群体中有广泛应用,但临床中缺乏对患者非计划再次入院和术后并发症的准确预测方法。目的:探讨罗斯曼(Rothman)指数对老年髋膝关节置换患者术后非计划再入院和并发症的影响。方法:选择遵义市第一人民医院骨科一病区2020年12月至2022年12月接受择期髋、膝关节手术患者153例为研究对象,根据出院后90 d内是否非计划再次入院分为再入院组(n=21)和非再入院组(n=132)。通过电子病历系统统计所有患者一般性资料,包括性别、年龄、体质量指数、合并糖尿病、合并高血压、手术关节类型等,参照文献评估Rothman指数,统计患者术后并发症。结果与结论:①再入院组和非再入院组患者性别、体质量指数、手术关节类型、住院时长比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05),两组共病数量、年龄、Rothman得分比较差异有显著性意义(P<0.05);②多因素Logistics回归分析结果显示,共病数量、年龄和Rothman得分均是老年髋、膝关节疾病患者术后90 d再入院的独立影响因素(P<0.05);③受试者工作特征曲线分析结果表明,Rothman指数预测人工髋膝关节置换术后90 d再入院曲线下面积为0.824,敏感度为80.85%,特异度为78.85%,最大youden指数为0.597,最佳截断值为46分;④Rothman<46分的老年患者总并发症发生率高于Rothman≥46分的老年患者(P<0.05);⑤提示Rothman指数可较为准确地预测老年髋、膝关节疾病患者术后非计划再入院,同时Rothman指数低于46分者发生并发症总体风险较高,关节恢复较差,可用于临床中改善患者术后管理。

智能报警气管导管防滑脱装置的设计及应用

目的:设计智能报警气管导管防滑脱装置,并评价其临床应用效果。方法:选取2022年4月-5月镇江市某三级甲等医院恢复室收治的172例全身麻醉手术病人作为研究对象,将2022年4月的86例全身麻醉气管插管病人作为对照组,将2022年5月的86例全身麻醉气管插管病人作为观察组。对照组按照常规的气管插管方法协助置管及护理,观察组应用智能报警气管导管防滑脱装置协助气管导管固定。对两组病人气管导管移位或脱出情况、病人面部皮肤情况、病人咽喉痛发生情况及护士满意度进行比较。结果:观察组病人气管导管移位或脱出风险小于对照组,面部皮肤并发症发生率、咽喉痛程度低于对照组,护士满意度高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论:使用智能报警气管导管防滑脱装置可减少病人气管导管移位或脱出,降低病人皮肤并发症发生率、咽喉痛程度,提高护士满意度。

三级医院老年患者出院延续护理转介单的设计及应用

目的设计三级医院老年患者出院延续护理转介单,评价其应用效果。方法参考文献资料,采用焦点小组讨论法,设计老年患者出院延续护理转介单,嵌入医院电子病历信息系统,病区护士使用转介单对有延续护理需求的患者进行转介,延续护理服务部专职护士接收转介,到病区为患者提供出院计划服务及出院后上门护理。结果2021-2022年全院21个老年患者所在科室均应用老年患者出院延续护理转介单实施转介,转介患者386例,其中80岁及以上老年患者219例(56.7%),内科系统9个科室共转介患者267例(69.2%)。为386例患者出院后1个月内提供上门护理服务597例次,患者出院30 d内非计划性再入院率为5.2%。结论设计及应用老年患者出院延续护理转介单,有利于促进转介及提高不同部门工作人员之间合作协调性,从而满足出院老年患者延续护理服务需求及降低出院后非计划性再入院率。

基于护理风险管理理论的康复科鼻饲患者非计划性拔管风险评估指标体系构建

目的构建科学的康复科鼻饲患者非计划性拔管(UEX)风险指标体系,为预防鼻饲患者非计划性拔管提供依据。方法通过文献回顾制定出康复科鼻饲患者UEX风险评估指标体系初稿,并应用德尔菲法对17名专家进行2轮函询,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重。结果2轮专家问卷回收有效率分别为100%、94.1%,专家权威程度分别为0.94、0.91,肯德尔协调系数分别为0.558和0.534(均P<0.001),最终形成康复科鼻饲患者UEX风险指标体系,包括一级指标3项,二级指标24项,三级指标60项。结论基于德尔菲法的康复科鼻饲患者UEX风险指标体系具有科学性和合理性,对指引临床工作具有重要意义。

隧道式置管方式在降低肿瘤病人PICC非计划性拔管率的效果研究

目的:观察肿瘤病人在经外周置入中心静脉导管(PICC)治疗期间应用隧道式置管方式对降低非计划性拔管率的效果。方法:选取2023年1月—11月南昌大学第二附属医院肿瘤科初次行PICC置管治疗的80例肿瘤病人为研究对象,随机分为对照组、试验组,每组40例。对照组行传统置管方式,试验组行隧道式置管方式,比较两组病人一次穿刺成功率、非计划性拔管率、并发症发生率及生活质量[生活质量评定量表(QOL)评分]。结果:试验组病人一次穿刺成功率为90.00%,高于对照组的72.50%(P<0.05);试验组病人置管后90、120 d非计划性拔管率低于对照组(P<0.05);试验组并发症总发生率为5.00%,低于对照组的25.00%(P<0.05);干预后试验组病人QOL评分高于对照组(P<0.05)。结论:隧道式置管方式可提高肿瘤病人PICC一次穿刺成功率,减少并发症,降低非计划性拔管率,改善生活质量。

早期预警自动评分程序在普通病区患者病情风险管控中的应用

目的探讨早期预警自动评分程序在普通病区患者病情风险管控中的应用效果。方法采用便利抽样法选取丰城市人民医院及丰城市妇幼保健院普通病房985名患者作为研究对象,其中2022年6月至12月住院的491例患者作为对照组,由护士进行人工早期预警评分;2023年1月至6月住院的494例患者作为观察组,由护士收集数据、早期预警自动评分程序进行高、中、低危分层,比较两组患者计算评分时间、非计划转入ICU及分级护理准确情况。结果观察组患者的计算评分时间短于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组患者的非计划转入ICU率低于对照组,分级护理准确率高于对照组患者,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论早期预警自动评分程序对于普通病区患者危重症具有良好的区分能力,降低计算评分时间以及非计划转入ICU人数,提高分级护理准确度。

腹腔镜结直肠癌术后非计划再次手术原因及危险因素分析

目的探讨腹腔镜结直肠癌手术后非计划再次手术原因及相关危险因素。方法回顾性分析2015年1月至2022年12月该院胃肠外科腹腔镜下结直肠癌手术1641例患者的临床资料,术后发生非计划再次手术15例,分析其非计划再次手术的原因,并且单因素和多因素logistic回归分析其危险因素。结果腹腔镜结直肠癌术后非计划再次手术发生率为0.91%,主要原因是吻合口瘘(26.67%)、肠梗阻(20.00%);通过对症治疗,12例治愈,2例主动出院,1例死亡。单因素和多因素回归分析显示,术前糖尿病、术前低蛋白血症、术中出血量多和腹部手术史为非计划再次手术的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。结论腹腔镜下结直肠癌术后非计划再次手术发生最常见的原因为吻合口瘘和肠梗阻,对合并糖尿病、低蛋白血症、术中出血量多的患者应注意加强防范该疾病的发生。

复杂肠道疾病手术患儿出院准备干预的效果评价

目的探讨出院准备干预方案在复杂肠道疾病手术患儿中的实施效果。方法将小儿外科108对复杂性肠道疾病手术患儿及主要照护者按照病区分为对照组和干预组各54对。对照组实施围手术期常规护理,干预组在常规护理基础上实施出院准备干预方案。结果干预组首次和第2次住院出院准备度评分显著高于对照组,首次出院后的非计划入院率显著低于对照组(均P<0.05)。结论对复杂性肠道疾病手术患儿及照护者实施出院准备干预方案,有助于提高家庭出院准备度,降低患儿非计划再入院的发生。

口腔专科医院非计划二次手术的回顾性分析

目的探讨口腔专科医院非计划二次手术发生的特点及影响因素。方法选取北京大学口腔医院2016—2021年所有二次手术患者信息,对非计划二次手术的病种、发生原因等进行统计分析,通过logistic回归进一步分析舌恶性肿瘤非计划二次手术的相关性因素。结果2016—2021年共发生非计划二次手术468例(1.17%),与第一次手术的间隔时间为0~20 d。构成比排在前3位的病种为颌面部恶性肿瘤、颌面部良性肿瘤、颌面部感染,导致非计划二次手术的主要原因为皮瓣血管危象、手术后血肿出血,占比为90.17%(422/468)。非计划二次手术组男性319例,女性149例,男女之比为2.14∶1,年龄53.00(36.00,62.00)岁,住院时间14.00(12.00,18.00)d,总费用为68694.91(51773.01,89850.04)元;对照组男性19932例,女性19495例,年龄31.00(18.00,53.00)岁,住院时间7.00(4.00,10.00)d,总费用为12338.96(8869.90,28650.17)元,比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。非计划二次手术术式以有皮瓣为主,占比为76.07%。2016—2021年三四级手术中非计划二次手术发生率为3.62%(397/10966),高于一二级手术的0.25%(71/28929)。年龄、饮酒史、高血压、皮瓣手术是影响舌恶性肿瘤非计划二次手术的主要危险因素(P<0.05)。结论应针对口腔颌面外科专业非计划二次手术危险因素,加强围手术期和手术分级管理,以提升医疗质量。

眼科非计划再次手术质控监管系统构建与应用研究

本研究通过建立眼科非计划再次手术质控监管系统,实现了对眼科手术质量的实时监管,显著降低了非计划再次手术率和漏报率。系统具有上报审核、自动实时监管、数据收集、预警提醒、流程闭环监管等特点,能够全面收集患者基本信息、手术情况、再次手术原因及整改措施等信息,为医院管理提供了有力支持。通过制定非计划再次手术质控监管流程,确保了监管工作的标准化和规范化。研究结果表明,系统运行后非计划再次手术率由0.25%降至0.14%,漏报率从25%下降为5%,差异均具有统计学意义。建立眼科非计划再次手术质控监管系统是提高手术质量、保障患者安全的有效措施,有助于医院实现手术质量安全的持续改进。

北京市3岁~17岁孤独症住院患者非计划再入院现状及影响因素研究

目的分析北京市3岁~17岁孤独症住院患者非计划再入院现状,探讨影响因素,为精神类疾病医疗质量提升提供参考。方法收集北京市市级医院2022年1月1日-12月31日3岁~17岁孤独症住院患者资料,分析31天非计划再入院和年内非计划再入院情况。采用单因素分析和Logistic回归分析探讨非计划再入院影响因素。结果共纳入341名孤独症患者,31天非计划再入院率和年内非计划再入院率分别为7.0%、18.8%。年龄是3岁~17岁孤独症患者31天非计划再入院影响因素,首次住院天数是患者31天非计划再入院和年内非计划再入院影响因素。结论儿童和青少年孤独症患者的非计划再入院率较低,低龄儿童31天非计划再入院率较高,首次住院时间较长患者非计划再入院率较高。应探索降低孤独症患者非计划再入院率的措施,提高孤独症患者医疗服务质量。

ICU患者行连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的影响因素分析

目的:探究ICU患者行连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的影响因素并制定预防措施。方法:选取2021年2月—2023年2月于胜利油田中心医院行连续性肾脏替代治疗的ICU患者286例作为研究对象,根据是否发生非计划性下机分为对照组(计划性下机204例)和观察组(非计划性下机82例)。收集两组临床基线资料,分析ICU患者行连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的影响因素。结果:多因素Logistic回归分析显示,凝血酶原时间短、活化部分凝血活酶时间短、静脉压高、护士同时负责机器数量≥3台、抗凝方式为低分子肝素均是ICU患者行连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。结论:凝血酶原时间短、活化部分凝血活酶时间短、静脉压高、护士同时负责机器数量≥3台、抗凝方式为低分子肝素是ICU患者行连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的独立危险因素,临床应根据上述因素并结合实际情况制定一系列科学合理的防治措施,以降低非计划性下机发生率。

糖尿病患者非计划再入院危险因素的研究进展

我国是世界上糖尿病患者最多的国家,且患者数量逐年上升,糖尿病患者因疾病无法彻底治愈且并发症较多易发生非计划性再入院。非计划再入院不仅增加患者及其家庭的负担,严重威胁患者的身心健康,并且造成医疗资源的浪费,因此,关注可避免的非计划再入院对患者和社会都有积极意义。本文解释了非计划再入院的概念以及糖尿病患者非计划再入院的国内外现状,分析其主要危险因素,促使医护人员关注可避免因素,为制定后期的干预策略提供参考依据,以降低糖尿病患者再入院率和经济负担。