A kinematics-uplift model for the HimalayanTibetan region

The Lhasa-Gangdise Terrane is taken as a representative mobile terrane during the Himalayan orogeny of the India- Eurasia continental collision, for which a corresponding kinematics-uplift model is set up. The parameterization of the model is ultimately constrained by the uplift history outlined by synthesized paleogeoglaphic studies with consideration of the following factors: (1 ) kinematic features of india-Eurasia plate convergence; (2) 3-D mass conservation during terrane deformations incorporating shortening, thickening, extension, uplift and ero sion; and (3) instantaneous vertical movement of lithospheric material under the control of isostasy. The model study involves the following four groups of uplift-relevant parameters: ① plate converging velocity and its variations with time; ② extent of lateral mass transfer; ③ crustal structure: and ④) surface erosion mode. The results of calculation of 144 models of different Parameter combinations have indicated the non-uniqueness of solution. Nevertheless, it is also proved that for a fixed kinematic mode of plate convergence there exists a unique best-fitting model which may reproduce the observed uplift history, implying the uniqueness of dynamic environment of two converging plates. Therefore, the uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region is mainly controlled by plate dynamics-kinematics and is a complicated geological process of far-reaching implications.

Interpreting the Coseismic Uplift and Subsidence of the Longmen Shan Foreland Basin System during the Wenchuan Earthquake by a Elastic Flexural Model

The coseismic surface uplift of the Longmen Shan（LMS） created an instantaneous topographic load over the western margin of the Sichuan Basin, where surface subsidence, decreasing eastward, has been measured using several methods, such as GPS, SAR and levelling. Using an elastic flexural model, we aim to interpret the coseismic surface uplift and subsidence, and constrain the effective lithospheric elastic thickness（Te） of the Sichuan Basin. Using different effective elastic thickness values for the Sichuan Basin, a series of subsidence curves were computed by the elastic flexure model equation for a broken elastic plate. The curves, produced by models using an effective elastic thickness of 30–40 km, provided the best fit to the general pattern of observed coseismic subsidence of the Sichuan Basin. However, the calculated subsidence（-40–70 cm） at the front of the LMS is evidently lower than the observed values（-100 cm）, suggesting that the effective elastic thickness therein should be lower. These results indicate that the lithospheric strength may decrease westward from the Sichuan Basin to the LMS.

AI机器学习:体育消费实验Uplift因果模型研究

2019年Metalearners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning的发表引发了世界因果推断理论的研究热情。目前,机器学习与因果推断论中的许多统计模型已被广泛应用。本文采用文献资料法、数理统计分析方法、案例研究法等研究方法,研究推演现代因果推断理论中较为知名的Uplift因果模型在体育中的应用场景,其中Uplift因果模型包括S-learner(单模型)、T-learner(双模型)、X-learner(交叉训练模型)。结果显示,在体育消费随机对照实验中应用Uplift因果模型,可以基于基本模型进一步推导出各变量因素之间的因果关系,验证并分析自变量对因变量变化的影响;率先在体育消费市场研究与实验中应用Uplift因果模型可以填补我国体育消费实验数据分析方法的空缺。

The Uplift of the Longmenshan Thrust Belt and Subsidence of the West Sichuan Foreland Basin

Based on fission track dating of apatite, and measurement of vitrinite reflectance of rock samples from the Longmenshan (Longmen Mountain)area and the West Sichuan foreland basin and computer modelling it is concluded that (l)the Songpan-Garze fold belt has uplifted at least by 3-4 km with an uplift rate of no less than 0.3-0.4 mm/a since 10 Ma B.P.; (2) the Longmenshan thrust nappe belt has uplifted at least by 5-6 km with an uplift rate of more than 0.5- 0.6 mm /a since 10 Ma B.P.; (3) the Longmenshan detachment belt has uplifted by 1 - 2 km at a rate of 0.016-0.032 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (4) the West Sichuan foreland basin has uplifted by 1.7-3 km at a rate of 0.028-0.05 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (5) the uplift rate of the area on the west side of the Beichuan-Yingxiu-Xiaoguanzi fault for the last 10 Ma is 40 times as much as that on its east side; (6) the uplifting of the the Songpan - Garze fold belt and the subsidence of the West Sichuan foreland basin 60 Ma ago exhibit a mirro-image correlation, i.e. the rapid uplifting of the the Songpan-Garze fold belt was corresponding to the rapid subsidence of the basin;the Songpan-Garze fold belt has uplifted at a much greater rate than the West Sichuan foeland basin in the last 60 Ma;and (7) the palaeogeothermal gradient was 25℃ /km in the West Sichuan foreland basin.

Sensitivity of East Asian Climate to the Progressive Uplift and Expansion of the Tibetan Plateau Under the Mid-Pliocene Boundary Conditions

A global atmospheric general circulation model has been used to perform eleven idealized numerical experiments, i.e., TP10, TP10, .., TP100, corresponding to different percentages of the Tibetan Plateau altitude. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of East Asian climate to the uplift and expansion of the Tibetan Plateau under the reconstructed boundary conditions for the mid-Pliocene about 3 Ma ago. When the plateau is progressively uplifted, global annual surface temperature is gradually declined and statistically significant cooling signals emerge only in the Northern Hemisphere, especially over and around the Tibetan Plateau, with larger magnitudes over land than over the oceans. On the contrary, annual surface temperature rises notably over Central Asia and most parts of Africa, as well as over northeasternmost Eurasia in the experiments TP60 to TP100. Meanwhile, the plateau uplift also leads to annual precipitation augmentation over the Tibetan Plateau but a reduction in northern Asia, the Indian Peninsula, much of Central Asia, parts of western Asia and the southern portions of northeastern Europe. Additionally, it is found that an East Asian summer monsoon system similar to that of the present initially exists in the TP60 and is gradually intensified with the continued plateau uplift. At 850 hPa the plateau uplift induces an anomalous cyclonic circulation around the Tibetan Plateau in summertime and two anomalous westerly currents respectively located to the south and north of the Tibetan Plateau in wintertime. In the mid-troposphere, similarto-modern spatial pattern of summertime western North Pacific subtropical high is only exhibited in the experiments TP60 to TP100, and the East Asian trough is steadily deepened in response to the progressive uplift and expansion of the Tibetan Plateau.

Meso-Cenozoic Tectonothermal History of Permian Strata, Southwestern Weibei Uplift: Insights from Thermochronology and Geothermometry

This study provides an integrated interpretation for the Mesozoic-Cenozoic tectonothermal evolutionary history of the Permian strata in the Qishan area of the southwestern Weibei Uplift,Ordos Basin.Apatite fission-track and apatite/zircon(U-Th)/He thermochronometry,bitumen reflectance,thermal conductivity of rocks,paleotemperature recovery,and basin modeling were used to restore the Meso-Cenozoic tectonothermal history of the Permian Strata.The Triassic AFT data have a pooled age of^180±7 Ma with one age peak and P(χ2)=86%.The average value of corrected apatite(U-Th)/He age of two Permian sandstones is^168±4 Ma and a zircon(U-Th)/He age from the Cambrian strata is^231±14 Ma.Bitumen reflectance and maximum paleotemperature of two Ordovician mudstones are 1.81%,1.57%and^210℃,~196℃respectively.After undergoing a rapid subsidence and increasing temperature in Triassic influenced by intrusive rocks in some areas,the Permian strata experienced four cooling-uplift stages after the time when the maximum paleotemperature reached in late Jurassic:(1)A cooling stage(~163 Ma to^140 Ma)with temperatures ranging from^132℃to^53℃and a cooling rate of^3℃/Ma,an erosion thickness of^1900 m and an uplift rate of^82 m/Ma;(2)A cooling stage(~140 Ma to^52 Ma)with temperatures ranging from^53℃to^47℃and a cooling rate less than^0.1℃/Ma,an erosion thickness of^300 m and an uplift rate of^3 m/Ma;(3)(~52 Ma to^8 Ma)with^47℃to^43℃and^0.1℃/Ma,an erosion thickness of^500 m and an uplift rate of^11 m/Ma;(3)(~8 Ma to present)with^43℃to^20℃and^3℃/Ma,an erosion thickness of^650 m and an uplift rate of^81 m/Ma.The tectonothermal evolutionary history of the Qishan area in Triassic was influenced by the interaction of the Qinling Orogeny and the Weibei Uplift,and the south Qishan area had the earliest uplift-cooling time compared to other parts within the Weibei Uplift.The early Eocene at^52 Ma and the late Miocene at^8 Ma,as two significant turning points after which both the rate of uplift and the rate of temperature changed rapidly,were two key time for the uplift-cooling history of the Permian strata in the Qishan area of the southwestern Weibei Uplift,Ordos Basin.

Variation of Uplift Velocit y in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Its Occasion and Consequences

The velocity of uplift in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau has been changed in a remarkable sense by the continental collision.In this paper the buoyancy variation,which occurred in the crustal shortening and thickening process,was used to explain the varied velocities.In the initial stage subcrustal material came from anomalous mantle with high temperature,then the density contrast between crust and mantle was small; in turn both the buoyancy and the surface uplift were gentle.When the thickened crust was squeezed into normal mantle in the later stage,the significant buoyancy would cause a rapid uplift.The variation of buoyancy also affected the stress regime around the plateau.

大盾构管片最不利上浮状态下三维形变特征模型试验方案设计

隧道施工期管片所受浆液浮力并非恒定,壁后浆液压力的不均匀分布会导致管片变形和隧道环的位错损伤。为减弱或避免因管片上浮造成的结构病害,通过自主设计研发一种考虑千斤顶水平推力、围岩压力以及同步注浆上浮力作用的管片三维加载模型试验系统,对大直径管片最不利上浮状态下的瞬时变形进行分析。试验装置由围压加载装置和非均布上浮力加载装置组成,可实现单点或多点同步加卸载;模型试验采用不同刚度弹簧模拟上浮期隧道与地层之间的相互作用;根据相似理论对管片模型和连接螺栓进行精细化设计和加工;根据实际工程中试验段的围压对模型围压初始值进行换算,并将动、静态上浮力相结合,提出更符合工程实际的盾构隧道横、纵向上浮力分析模型。结果表明:在拱底非均布上浮力的作用下,拱底竖向位移和收敛变形沿纵向均近似呈对数正态分布,其最大值均出现在脱出盾尾后第3环;各环管片的收敛变形与拱底竖向位移近似呈线性关系,斜率介于0.63~1.49之间;模型试验结果与实测数据相吻合。研究成果可为盾构隧道管片抗浮设计和施工提供一定的技术支持。

不同嵌岩深度下抗拔桩承载特性研究

以广东省江门市某工程为例,通过有限元分析软件ABAQUS,结合地勘报告及现场对桩基进行抗拔静载试验得出的荷载–位移曲线图,建立抗拔桩三维有限元模型进行数值模拟计算分析,研究不同嵌岩深度增量下抗拔桩的承载特性。研究成果表明:增加嵌岩深度可在一定程度上提高桩基抗拔承载力,但二者之间并非呈线性增长关系。当嵌岩深度增量为3D时,相较于原试桩的桩顶位移量减小54.2%,抗拔承载力提高105.2%,对桩基抗拔承载力的提高效果尤为显著。

砂土中抗拔螺杆桩承载力及变形特性研究

通过基于数字图像相关技术的模型试验和离散元数值模拟方法(PFC),研究了叶片设置、砂土相对密实度、受荷工况等因素对螺杆桩抗拔承载力和变形特性的影响,利用试验结果校准离散元程序的细观参数,模拟结果用于分析螺杆桩的荷载分担特性、螺纹叶片间距对承载力的影响以及桩周土体滑动面特征。结果表明:抗拔工况下桩基荷载位移曲线呈现软化特征,0.05 D破坏准则适用于抗拔桩的极限承载力判定,叶片的设置使得桩承载力提高37%,螺纹段荷载分担比接近70%,直杆段荷载分担比是抗压工况的2倍;上拔承载力随叶片间距增加呈降低趋势,H/D=1.00是此工况下合理参数;砂土相对密实度的提高使得螺杆桩和直杆桩抗拔承载力分别增长19.4%、26%,而对抗拔桩周围土体位移模式影响有限,螺杆桩桩周土体最大影响范围约为4 D,而直杆桩约为2 D。

深井掘进技术在厚层高渗透性粉细砂层中适用性的数值模拟研究

科学合理高效开发深层地下空间是城市不断发展的必然趋势与重要难题。深井掘进技术(vertical shaft machine,VSM)是一种开挖超深竖井的新型工法,该技术施作的竖井结构形式简单、结构受力状态好、施工速度快、对周边环境扰动小、适用性广泛,可被广泛用于城市深层地下空间的点状开发。以中国首例使用VSM施工的南京市儿童医院沉井停车库项目为原型,建立在砂性土中开挖60 m竖井的数值模型,重点研究VSM竖井在厚层高渗透性的粉细砂层开挖过程的变形情况与开挖面的稳定性问题。数值模型结果表明:60 m竖井开挖过中地表变形量均控制在毫米数量级,且最大地表变形量不超过13 mm;在水位差1 m的水下施工过程中安全系数均较好控制在2.0以上。对于变形问题,分析不同开挖深度下的井底隆起变形和地表变形情况,表明在60 m开挖深度内,使用VSM开挖砂性土竖井在深度、安全性和对周边环境扰动上均具有明显优势。针对开挖面稳定性,计算分析与竖井内外水位差和竖井深度相关的开挖面安全系数,计算结果可用于指导实际施工,实现分段施工与精细化控制。

透水式接岸新结构波浪荷载受力特性研究

采用局部整体波浪物理模型试验,对大连湾海底隧道北接岸透空新结构方案实施后的区域波浪场分布变化以及透水式接岸结构的受力特点进行了研究。试验研究了底部开孔隧道结构在不同水位及波浪组合下水平方向和垂直方向的波浪总力。试验结果表明最大水平力和最大浮托力并未同步出现,水平力大小多与入射波高相关,浮托力波高仅为影响参数之一,水位变化也是重要的影响因素。目前国内对于类似结构的受力研究处于空白状态,相关研究成果可丰富该领域的研究内容,并为这种新型结构的设计提供数据支持。

低程度风化火山岩风化壳结构划分与主控因素——以准噶尔盆地西缘车排子凸起石炭系火山岩为例

为解决低风化程度的火山岩风化壳结构划分及火山岩油气储层评价与预测的难题,利用研究区28口井岩心、录井测井和地震资料,对车排子凸起石炭系火山岩风化壳的岩石学、矿物学、地球化学、储层物性进行系统研究。结果表明:研究区岩石整体风化程度偏低。在此基础上提出一种将风化壳自上而下分为土壤带、水解带、淋滤带、崩解带、蚀变带、母岩带的6层划分方案。利用研究区玄武安山岩的自然电位、自然伽马、声波、电阻率4种测井数据,结合过采样算法的决策树模型对淋滤带、崩解带、蚀变带进行分类判别,准确率达87.8%。综合分析认为:低风化程度火山岩风化壳有效储层厚度、结构带发育程度、横纵向分布等具有非均质性;有利储层发育主要受古地貌和断裂作用的控制,淋滤带、崩解带是主要有利储层发育区,常分布于古地貌的斜坡地带,一般厚度在350 m以内;受断裂作用影响,风化壳有效储层厚度可达450 m。

华安水电站大坝坝基扬压水位异常现象分析

坝基扬压力监测是确保混凝土重力坝安全运行的重要手段,坝基渗压系数是评价混凝土重力坝稳定性的重要指标。华安水电站大坝坝基布置的11个测压孔中,UP8测压孔实测扬压水位明显偏高,表现异常。通过现场测试、资料分析和统计模型等方法,分析了UP8测压孔扬压水位偏高的可能原因,评价了对大坝稳定性的影响,为同类大坝坝基扬压力异常现象分析提供了有益的参考。

Mesh model building and migration and accumulation simulation of 3D hydrocarbon carrier system

Migration and accumulation simulation of oil and gas in carrier systems has always been a difficult subject in the quantitative study of petroleum geology. In view of the fact that the traditional geological modeling technology can not establish the interrelation of carriers in three dimensional space, we have proposed a hybrid-dimensional mesh modeling technology consisting of body(stratum), surfaces(faults and unconformities), lines and points, which provides an important research method for the description of geometry of sand bodies, faults and unconformities, the 3 D geological modeling of complex tectonic areas, and the simulation of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Furthermore, we have advanced a 3 D hydrocarbon migration pathway tracking method based on the hybrid-dimensional mesh of the carrier system. The application of this technology in western Luliang Uplift of Junggar Basin shows that the technology can effectively characterize the transport effect of fault planes, unconformities and sand bodies, indicate the hydrocarbon migration pathways, simulate the process of oil accumulation, reservoir adjustment and secondary reservoir formation, predict the hydrocarbon distribution. It is found through the simulation that the areas around the paleo-oil reservoir and covered by migration pathways are favorable sites for oil and gas distribution.

砂土中多锚片螺旋锚上拔承载力计算方法研究

对于砂土中多锚片螺旋锚上拔承载机理和承载力学模型的研究,目前存在人为引入临界值将连续演化问题分割为特殊工况,但临界值取值标准又难以形成统一认识的问题。基于数值模拟分析了砂土中螺旋锚锚周土体滑动面的连续演化规律和理论表征方法,并进一步研究砂土中多锚片螺旋锚上拔力学模型和上拔承载力计算方法。所得主要结论为:1)多锚片螺旋锚上层锚的承载性状仅与其埋深比有关,与单锚表现一致;2)随着间距比的增大,下层锚承载性状受间距比的影响逐渐减小,直至独立承载;3)各层锚片锚周土体滑动面均可用椭圆的部分圆弧刻画,间距比很小时,椭圆的长短轴比取决于间距比而与埋深比无关,其余情况下椭圆的长短轴比均随埋深比的增大而减小;4)多锚片螺旋锚的上拔承载力学模型可通过各层锚的承载模型组合而成,下层锚力学模型的演化受埋深比和间距比的影响可分为3个连续阶段;5)与3个试验案例的对比计算证明了连续演化+组合式力学模型构建思路的合理性,相应的承载力计算方法也具有较好的精度和稳定性。

塔里木盆地兰尕与和田河断裂带变形特征及成藏演化模式

塔里木盆地中部发育北北东向—近南北向“半走滑-半逆冲”的“Y”字形逆冲滑脱断裂,其构造样式与邻区断裂差异较大,两侧断裂体系也不同,目前对其形成机制和构造演化特征的认识尚不清楚。通过对和田河与兰尕断裂带的构造解析,研究其形成机制与演化特征;通过与塔河油田兰尕断裂带油气成藏特征对比,分析和田河断裂带油气运移聚集特征。研究表明:兰尕及和田河半走滑-半逆冲的“Y”字型逆冲滑脱断裂带形成于加里东晚期,向下收敛为走滑断裂,向上逆冲至志留纪地层内,形成断背斜。区域地应力是这2条断裂带形成的主要原因。早奥陶世末,受西南、东南和北部3面应力作用,塔北隆起形成大规模北北东向和北北西向走滑断裂,巴楚隆起形成北北东向走滑断裂。加里东运动晚期,受东昆仑和南天山洋挤压作用,形成向下收敛为走滑断裂、向上逆冲至志留纪地层内的逆冲滑脱断裂,并切割走滑断裂,使逆冲断裂上盘走滑断裂再活动,形成的缝网规模及破碎程度远比下盘及其他区域大。在后期构造运动作用下,逆冲断裂带内走滑断裂继承发育,并错断逆冲断裂。兰尕断裂带内发育两种有利成藏模式:①主干北北东向走滑断裂横向交切上倾断溶体油气成藏模式;②油气沿次级北北东向走滑断裂分段富集的断溶体油气成藏模式。海西运动晚期,和田河构造带沿主干断裂充注的油气向次级北北东向走滑断裂控制的缝洞型储层侧向调整,发育断溶体油气藏,油气沿断裂带分段富集。因此,南部背斜区北北东向断溶体为有利勘探目标。

大兴凸起东缘断裂的三维建模及其最大潜在地震评估

通过最新的浅部地震反射剖面和钻孔资料发现了大兴凸起东缘断裂全新世活动的证据,这一发现改变了近几十年以来认为的其晚第四纪以来没有活动的结论,对北京市地震灾害风险普查工作具有重要的应用价值,同时也对大兴凸起东缘断裂最大潜在地震的震级上限评估提出了新的挑战。文中通过收集和整理多条地震浅层物探剖面和地震深反射剖面,利用SKUA-GOCAD三维建模软件构建了大兴凸起东缘断裂的三维模型,模拟了大兴凸起东缘断裂在三维空间中的展布情况,揭示了该断裂的几何学特征及深浅构造关系。通过将大兴凸起东缘断裂和与其呈右阶排列的夏垫断裂进行构造类比,对大兴凸起东缘断裂深、浅部的构造特征进行了讨论,认为大兴凸起东缘断裂是一条深浅共存的活动断裂,并利用震级-破裂尺度经验关系式综合估计该断裂上可能诱发的最大潜在地震为7.5级。这一结论对首都圈南部地区开展震灾防治工作具有重要的科学指导意义。

塔中凸起张扭走滑断裂带分段构造特征及生长机制

塔里木盆地奥陶系碳酸盐岩发育斜向挤压背景下的压扭走滑断裂,但塔中凸起发现了一系列张扭走滑断裂,并对油气富集具有重要的控制作用。基于塔中凸起西部地区三维地震资料,结合相干、曲率等属性,统计走滑断裂运动参数,运用走滑断裂构造解析方法,优选塔中凸起F_(Ⅱ)21走滑断裂带开展走滑断裂分段建模研究,并探讨其生长机制。结果表明,F_(Ⅱ)21走滑断裂带具有平面分段、垂向分层特征,奥陶系碳酸盐岩顶面发育线状构造、斜列构造、马尾构造、翼尾构造、辫状构造和叠覆构造。走滑断裂构造高差分布特征揭示了走滑断裂带的分段生长与尾端扩张生长机制,该断裂带为调节走滑断裂带两侧反向收缩变形的变换断裂,经历雁列断裂阶段、生长连接阶段及再激活雁列断裂阶段的演化过程。

文昌凹陷神狐隆起北缘多次波压制方法研究

神狐隆起北缘地震资料多次波极为发育,造成速度拾取不准,地震成像精度低,导致低幅圈闭难落实。为解决该区多次波压制难的问题,本次研究根据不同于反射波的周期性、时差以及地质空间统计特征,开展炮集域、共偏移距域以及CMP道集上对多次波进行联合衰减;最终确定了采用SDM、SWD、广义3D SRME进行多次波建模,进而利用得到的多次波模型,进行多模型三维自适应匹配减方法进行多次波进行压制,最后结合高精度Radon多次波压制技术进行残余多次压制。通过以上技术的应用,有效压制了目标区多次波,为速度建模及叠前深度偏移成像提供了高品质基础资料,同时为该区低幅圈闭勘探提供了准确成像的地震资料,也为其他地区多次波压制提供了技术参考。