Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships:identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships,and can help inform ecosystem management,but has rarely been explored.In this study,we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning.In the first stage of the framework,we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression.Next,we calculate“potentials”of the response variable depending on the driver,which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot.Finally,we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model.We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus(TP)-Chlorophyll a(CHL)relationship in lakes across the continental US.We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio(N:P),annual average precipitation,total nitrogen(TN),and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP.We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management.The important role of N:P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria.Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management.The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.

Altitude of the upper boundary of AAR based on observations of ion beams in inverted-V structures:A case study

Outflowing ion beams forming four successive inverted-V structures in the energy-time spectrograms of H+, He+, and O+ were observed at an altitude of 3.4 RE by Cluster satellites travelling above the auroral acceleration region (AAR) in the southern hemisphere on February 14, 2001. Energization by negative U-shaped potential structures in the AAR is believed to be responsible for the formation of these outflowing ion inverted-V structures. Thus, utilizing the different motion properties of the three ion species, the altitude of the upper boundary of the AAR is estimated to be ~11100 km. Moreover, based on multi-satellite observations, each of these U-shaped potential structures involved in this event crosses the latitudinal direction at ~0.4°–1° invariantlatitude (ILAT), moving poleward at an average speed of ~0.2° ILAT per minute, before disappearing at ~71.5° ILAT.

Regarding an Oceanic Crust/Upper Mantle Geochemical Signature at the KT Boundary:If not from Chicxulub Crater,then Where Did it Come from?

Evidence for a mantle and/or basaltic component in KT boundary distal ejecta is apparently inconsistent with ejection from Chicxulub Crater since it is located on;5km thick continental crust（De Paolo et al.,1983;Montanari et al.,1983;Hildebrand and Boynton,1988,1990）.This evidence,along with ejected terrestrial chromites（Olds et al.,2016）suggest the impact sampled terrestrial mafic and/or ultramafic target rocks which are not known to exist in the Chicxulub target area.Possible resolutions to the paradox are:1)the existence of an unmapped/unknown suture in Yucatan Platform basement,2)an additional small unmapped/unknown impact site on oceanic lithosphere,or 3)an additional large impact on oceanic lithosphere or continental margin transitional to oceanic lithosphere.The third hypothesis is elaborated here since:1)Ophiolites nearest to Chicxulub crater are found in Cuba and apparently were obducted in latest Cretaceous/earliest Danian times（García-Casco,2008）,inconsistent with the documented Eocene collision of Cuba with the Bahamas platform;and 2)Cuba hosts the world’s thickest known KT boundary deposits（Iturralde-Vinent,1992;Kiyokawa et al.,2002;Tada et al.,2003）.These and geometric considerations suggest oceanic crust and upper mantle rock,exposed as ophiolite in the Greater Antilles island chain,marks the rim of a roughly 700 km diameter impact basin deformed and dismembered from an originally circular form by at least 50 million years of left-lateral shear displacement along the North American-Caribbeantransform plate boundary.

Predicting stability of integrated circuit test equipment using upper side boundary values of normal distribution

In response to the growing complexity and performance of integrated circuit(IC),there is an urgent need to enhance the testing and stability of IC test equipment.A method was proposed to predict equipment stability using the upper side boundary value of normal distribution.Initially,the K-means clustering algorithm classifies and analyzes sample data.The accuracy of this boundary value is compared under two common confidence levels to select the optimal threshold.A range is then defined to categorize unqualified test data.Through experimental verification,the method achieves the purpose of measuring the stability of qualitative IC equipment through a deterministic threshold value and judging the stability of the equipment by comparing the number of unqualified data with the threshold value,which realizes the goal of long-term operation monitoring and stability analysis of IC test equipment.

Upper Devonian and Lower Carboniferous Sequence Stratigraphy of South China

In South China four depositional sequences are recognized in the upper part of Upper Devonian and Tournaisian. They are named SQ0 SQ1, SQ2 and SQ3 in ascending order. SQ0 is Strunian (uppermost Devonian), and the other three Tournaisian in age. These four depositional sequences appear to correlate fairly well with the four sequence recognized in Europe, North America and other areas. This may suggest that these sequences are synchronous depos- its resulted from the eustatic changes. The present study on sequence stratigraphy, biostratigraphy and event stratigraphy indicates that in neritic facies areas of South China, the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary, matching the boundary between Siphonodella praesulcata zone and S. sulcata zone in pelagic facies areas, is not only higher than the top of the Cystophrentis zone, but also higher than the top of the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary event bed. In neritic facies areas, the Devonian-Carbonifrerous boundary is marked by the most distinct transgressive surface within the Cystophrentiseudouralina interval zone, i. e. at the base of the TST of the SQ1. This boundary coincides with the top surface of the event bed resulted from the eustatic fall, and approximately corresponds to the basal part of Rseudouralina assemblage zone.

SOME NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR EXISTENCE OF POSITIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THIRD ORDER SINGULAR SUBLINEAR MULTI-POINT BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS

We mainly study the existence of positive solutions for the following third order singular multi-point boundary value problem{x^（3）（t） ＋ f（t, x（t）, x′（t）） = 0, 0 〈 t 〈 1,x（0）-∑i=1^m1 αi x（ξi） = 0, x′（0）-∑i=1^m2 βi x′（ηi） = 0, x′（1）=0,where 0 ≤ ai≤∑i=1^m1 αi 〈 1, i = 1, 2, ···, m1, 0 〈 ξ1〈 ξ2〈 ··· 〈 ξm1〈 1, 0 ≤βj≤∑i^m2=1βi〈1,J=1,2, ···, m2, 0 〈 η1〈 η2〈 ··· 〈 ηm2〈 1. And we obtain some necessa βi 〈=11, j = 1,ry and sufficient conditions for the existence of C^1[0, 1] and C^2[0, 1] positive solutions by constructing lower and upper solutions and by using the comparison theorem. Our nonlinearity f（t, x, y）may be singular at x, y, t = 0 and/or t = 1.

Subdivision and Correlation of Middle and Upper Cambria in North China in Light of Sequence Stratigraphy

Correlation of Middle and Late Cambrian cyclic carbonates from the widely separated Zhangxia section, Qingxing section, Xishan section and Zhaogezhuang section has defined five major third-order depositional sequences. Correlation of biostratigraphy is used to establish the equivalency of stratigraphic sequences between individual sections. Even though the individ- ual sections are composed of different lithofacies and meter-scale cycles that reflect the varied environmental settings in the localities, the overall upward shallowing character of individ- ual sequences is evident. The sequences, named on their relation to the regional stages in range, are in ascending order: Zhangxia Sequence, Gushan Sequence, Guchang Sequence, Changshan Sequence and Fengshan Sequence, of which the upper four sequences were correlated with those defined by Osleger and Read in the United States, with the aid of biostratigraphic correlation. The Middle/Upper Cambrian boundary is tentatively suggested to be between the Guchang Sequence and the Changshan Sequence in North China. The optimization of the existing litho-and regional chronostratigraphic boundaries is discussed based on the sequence boundaries.

Analysis of monthly variability of thermocline in the South China Sea

This study analyzes monthly variability of thermocline and its mechanism in the South China Sea （SCS）. The study is based on 51-year （1960-2010） monthly seawater temperature and surface wind stress data from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA）, together with heat flux, precipitation and evaporation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, respectively. The results reveal that the upper boundary depth （Zup）, lower boundary depth （Zlow）, thickness （AZ） and intensity （Tz） of thermocline in the SCS show remarkable monthly variability. Being averaged for the deep basin of SCS, Zup deepens gradually from May to the following January and then shoals from February to May, while Zow varies little throughout the whole year. Further diagnostics indicates that the monthly variability of Zup is mainly caused by the buoyancy flux and wind stress curl. Using a linear method, the impacts of the buoyancy flux and wind stress curl on Zup can be quantitatively distinguished. The results suggest that Zup tends to deepen about 4.6 m when the buoyancy flux increases by 1 × 10.5 kg/（m·s3）, while it shoals about 2.5 m when the wind stress curl strengthens by 1 × 10-7 N/m3.

Failure Mechanisms of Post-Earthquake Bedrock Landslides in Response to Rainfall Infiltration

Among the triggering factors of postearthquake bedrock landslides, rainfall plays an important role. However, with slope variation, the mechanism of its effects on the failure of rock landslides is not dear. Here, from the viewpoint of fracture mechanics, and based on post-earthquake conditions, the mechanisms of crack propagation, water infiltration and development of the sliding surface were investigated. Then, according to the upper boundary theorem, the effects of water infiltrated into fractures on the stability of rock slopes were analyzed quantitatively. Finally, an example is presented to verify the theory. The results show that the propagation and coalescence of cracks and the lubrication of incipient sliding surfaces are the main causes of the failure of post-earthquake rock landslides in response to rainfall.

Subdivision and age of the Yanchang Formation and the Middle/Upper Triassic boundary in Ordos Basin, North China

The Yanchang Formation is extensively developed in the Ordos Basin and its surrounding regions. As one of the best terrestrial Triassic sequences in China and the major oil-gas bearing formations in the Ordos Basin, its age determination and stratigraphic assignment are important in geological survey and oil-gas exploration. It had been attributed to the Late Triassic and regarded as the typical representative of the Upper Triassic in northern China for a long time, although some scholars had already proposed that the lower part of this formation should be of the Middle Triassic age in the mid-late 20 th century. In this paper, we suggest that the lower and middle parts of the Yanchang Formation should be of the Ladinian and the bottom possibly belongs to the late Anisian of the Middle Triassic, mainly based on new fossils found in it and high resolution radiometric dating results. The main source rocks, namely the oil shales and mudstones of the Chang-7, are of the Ladinian Age. The upper part of the Yanchang Formation, namely the Chang-6 and the above parts, belongs to the Late Triassic. The uppermost of the Triassic is missed in most parts of the Ordos Basin. The Middle-Upper Triassic Series boundary lies in the Yanchang Formation, equivalent to the boundary between Chang-7 and Chang-6. The Ladinian is an important palaeoenvironmental turning point in the Ordos Basin. Palaeoenvironmental changes in the basin are coincidence with that of the Sichuan Basin and the main tectonic movement of the Qinling Mountains. It indicates that tectonic activities of the Qinling Mountains are related to the big palaeoenvironmental changes in both the Ordos and Sichuan Basins, which are caused by the same structural dynamic system during the Ladinian.

UBM STUDY ON DOUBLE-DIE IRONING PROCESS

The double-die ironing process is studied by means of UBM. The formulas of deformation load.contact stress on die surface, and tensile stress which acts on workpiece is obtained. Taking account of dirnensional accuracy, a new critical condition of limit reduction in cross section area is put forward for the flrst time. The test experiment indicats that results of theoretical analysis well accord with the actual conditions.[0]

Modified parameterization for near-inertial waves

The near-inertial waves(NIWs)are important for energy cascade in the ocean.They are usually significantly reinforced by strong winds,such as typhoon.Due to relatively coarse resolutions in contemporary climate models,NIWs and associated ocean mixing need to be parameterized.In this study,a parameterization for NIWs proposed by Jochum in 2013(J13 scheme),which has been widely used,is compared with the observations in the South China Sea,and the observations are treated as model outputs.Under normal conditions,the J13 scheme performs well.However,there are noticeable discrepancies between the J13 scheme and observations during typhoon.During Typhoon Kalmaegi in 2014,the inferred value of the boundary layer is deeper in the J13 scheme due to the weak near-inertial velocity shear in the vertical.After typhoon,the spreading of NIWs beneath the upper boundary layer is much faster than the theoretical prediction of inertial gravity waves,and this fast process is not rendered well by the J13 scheme.In addition,below the boundary layer,NIWs and associated diapycnal mixing last longer than the direct impacts of typhoon on the sea surface.Since the energy dissipation and diapycnal mixing below the boundary layer are bounded to the surface winds in the J13 scheme,the prolonged influences of typhoon via NIWs in the ocean interior are missing in this scheme.Based on current examination,modifications to the J13 scheme are proposed,and the modified version can reduce the discrepancies in the temporal and vertical structures of diapycnal mixing.

Existence results and behavior analysis for nonlinear age-dependent population dynamics problems with conformable fractional operator

In this paper,we investigate the existence of solutions and analyze the large-time behavior for Gurtin-Maccamy population model involving conformable fractional derivatives.As a preliminary step,we construct a generic structure of the solution associated with our proposed model by utilizing some basic properties and tools of conformable fractional calculus.We establish the existence of a unique solution of the given model with the given initial conditions.At last,by using the upper and lower solutions for the characteristic equation,we define the upper and lower boundaries for the obtained solution and describe the large-time behavior of the total population.

Aerosol structure and vertical distribution in a multi-source dust region

The vertical distribution of aerosols was directly observed under various atmospheric conditions in the free troposphere using surface micro-pulse lidar （MPL4） at the Zhangye Station （39.08°N, 100.27°E） in western China in the spring of 2008. The study shows that the aerosol distribution over Zhangye can be vertically classified into upper, middle and lower layers with altitudes of 4.5 to 9 km, 2.5 to 4.5 kin, and less than 2.5 km, respectively. The aerosol in the upper layer originated from the external sources at higher altitude regions, from far desert regions upwind of Zhangye or transported from higher atmospheric layers by free convection, and the altitude of this aerosol layer decreased with time; the aerosols in the middle and lower layers originated from both external and local sources. The aerosol extinction coefficients in the upper and lower layers decreased with altitude, whereas the coefficient in the middle layer changed only slightly, which suggests that aerosol mixing occurs in the middle layer. The distribution of aerosols with altitude has three features： a single peak that forms under stable atmospheric conditions, an exponential decrease with altitude that occurs under unstable atmospheric conditions, and slight change in the mixed layer. Due to the impact of the top of the atmospheric boundary layer, the diurnal variation in the aerosol extinction coefficient has a single peak, which is higher in the afternoon and lower in the morning.