Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21

Starting in mid-November,China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/21.The lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached−19.6°C.In this paper,we show that the outbreak of the record-breaking extreme cold event can be attributed to a huge merging Ural blocking(UB)ridge over the Eurasian region.The sea-ice cover in the Kara and East Siberia Seas(KESS)in autumn was at its lowest value since 1979,which could have served as a precursor signal.Further analysis shows that several successive UB episodes occurred from 1 September 2020 to 10 January 2021.The persistent UB that occurred in late September/early October 2020 may have made an important contribution to the October historical minimum of sea ice in the KESS region.Our results also show that,after each UB episode in winter,significant upward propagation of wave activity occurred around 60°E,which resulted in weakening the stratospheric vortex.Meanwhile,each UB episode also caused a significant reduction in sea-ice extent in KESS and a significant weakening of the westerly jet in mid-high-latitude Eurasia.Results suggest that the Arctic vortex,which is supposed to enhance seasonally,became weaker and more unstable than the climatic mean under the seasonal cumulative effects of UB episodes,KESS warming,and long-lasting negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO-).Those seasonal cumulative effects,combined with the impact of La Niña winter,led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold events.

Numerical Study of Ural Blocking High＇s Effect Upon Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and East China Flood and Drought

In terms of Kuo-Qian pesigma incorporated coordinate five-level primitive equation spheric band (70°N-30°S)model with the Ural high's effect introduced into it as initial and boundary conditions, study is made of the high's influence on Asian summer monsoon circulation and dryness / wetness of eastern China based on case contrast andcontrol experiments. Rusults show that as an excitation source, the blocking high produces a SE-NW stationarywavetrain with its upper-air atnicyclonic divergent circulation oust over a lower-level trough zone) precisely over themiddle to lower reaches of the Changjiang River, enhancing East Asian westerly jet, a situation that contributes toPerturbation growth, causing an additional secondary meridional circulation at the jet entrance, which intensifies theupdraft in the monsoon area. As such, the high's presence and its excited steady wavetrain represent the large-scalekey factors and acting mechanisms for the rainstorm over the Changjiang-Huaihe River catchment in the easternpart of the land.

Recent Rapid Decline of the Arctic Winter Sea Ice in the Barents–Kara Seas Owing to Combined Effects of the Ural Blocking and SST

This study investigates why the Arctic winter sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara Seas（BKS） is accelerated in the recent decade. We first divide 1979–2013 into two time periods： 1979–2000（P1） and 2001–13（P2）, with a focus on P2 and the difference between P1 and P2. The results show that during P2, the rapid decline of the sea ice over the BKS is related not only to the high sea surface temperature（SST） over the BKS, but also to the increased frequency,duration, and quasi-stationarity of the Ural blocking（UB） events. Observational analysis reveals that during P2, the UB tends to become quasi stationary and its frequency tends to increase due to the weakening（strengthening） of zonal winds over the Eurasia（North Atlantic） when the surface air temperature（SAT） anomaly over the BKS is positive probably because of the high SST. Strong downward infrared（IR） radiation is seen to occur together with the quasi-stationary and persistent UB because of the accumulation of more water vapor over the BKS. Such downward IR favors the sea ice decline over the BKS, although the high SST over the BKS plays a major role. But for P1, the UB becomes westward traveling due to the opposite distribution of zonal winds relative to P2, resulting in weak downward IR over the BKS. This may lead to a weak decline of the sea ice over the BKS. Thus, it is likely that the rapid decline of the sea ice over the BKS during P2 is attributed to the joint effects of the high SST over the BKS and the quasi-stationary and long-lived UB events.

NUMERICAL STUDY ON EFFECTS OF THE QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU ON FORMATION OF THE URAL BLOCKING HIGH

By employing the improved T42L5 spectral model and utilizing the ECMWF data covering the period from 1 July to 7 July 1982,a numerical research on the formation of the Ural blocking system has been made.The results show that the model forecasts for the upstream U ral area turn out to be worse if the dynamic effect of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is not considered.The correlation coefficient between the model forecasts and observed 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly decreases by 9% for the 5-day mean,and their averaged root mean square (RMS) error increases 15 m.Due to the dynamic effect of the Plateau,the trough being on the northwest of the Plateau is barricaded and turns to be a transversal trough.Consequently southwest flow occurs along the northwest of the Plateau in front of the trough,while northeast flow prevails over the west of the trough,causing the formation of the blocking high over the Ural area.When the dynamic effect of the Plateau is not taken into consideration,the trough develops and moves southeastward and the Ural blocking high changes into a migratory high.All these result in the failure of the simulation.The dynamic effect of the Plateau helps to increase the negative vorticities over the Plateau and its north periphery as well as the Ural area,and also helps to increase the positive vorticities over the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea area.On the other hand,the thermodynamic effect mainly influences the Plateau and its downstream area and plays an less important role in the formation of the blocking high over the upstream Ural area.

Simple Metrics for Representing East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability:Urals Blocking and Western Pacific Teleconnection Patterns

Instead of conventional East Asian winter monsoon indices （EAWMIs）, we simply use two large-scale teleconnection patterns to represent long-term variations in the EAWM. First, the Urals blocking pattern index （UBI） is closely related to cold air advection from the high latitudes towards western Siberia, such that it shows an implicit linkage with the Siberian high intensity and the surface air temperature （SAT） variations north of 40°N in the EAWM region. Second, the well-known western Pacific teleconnection index （WPI） is connected with the meridional displacement of the East Asian jet stream and the East Asian trough. This is strongly related to the SAT variations in the coastal area south of 40°N in the EAWM region. The temperature variation in the EAWM region is also represented by the two dominant temperature modes, which are called the northern temperature mode （NTM） and the southern temperature mode （STM）. Compared to 19 existing EAWMIs and other well-known teleconnection patterns, the UBI shows the strongest correlation with the NTM, while the WPI shows an equally strong correlation with the STM as four EAWMIs. The UBI-NTM and WPI-STM relationships are robust when the correlation analysis is repeated by （1） the 31-year running correlation and （2） the 8-year high-pass and low-pass filter. Hence, these results are useful for analyzing the large-scale teleconnections of the EAWM and for evaluating this issue in climate models. Int particular, more studies should focus on the teleconnection patterns over extratropical Eurasia.

Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021

An unprecedented cold wave intruded into East Asia in early January 2021 and led to record-breaking or historical extreme low temperatures over vast regions.This study shows that a major stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)event at the beginning of January 2021 exerted an important influence on this cold wave.The major SSW event occurred on 2 January 2021 and subsequently led to the displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the East Asian side.Moreover,the SSW event induced the stratospheric warming signal to propagate downward to the mid-to-lower troposphere,which not only enhanced the blocking in the Urals-Siberia region and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation,but also shifted the tropospheric polar vortex off the pole.The displaced tropospheric polar vortex,Ural blocking,and another downstream blocking ridge over western North America formed a distinct inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern(IOCP)in the East Asia-North Pacific sector.This IOCP was the most direct and impactful atmospheric pattern causing the cold wave in East Asia.The IOCP triggered a meridional cell with an upward branch in East Asia and a downward branch in Siberia.The meridional cell intensified the Siberian high and low-level northerly winds,which also favored the invasion of the cold wave into East Asia.Hence,the SSW event and tropospheric circulations such as the IOCP,negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,Ural blocking,enhanced Siberian high,and eastward propagation of Rossby wave eventually induced the outbreak of an unprecedented cold wave in East Asia in early January 2021.

Interannual Variations of the Blocking High over the Ural Mountains and Its Association with the AO/NAO in Boreal Winter

This paper analyzes interannual variations of the blocking high over the Ural Mountains in the boreal winter and their association with the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation（AO/NAO）.In January,the relationship between the Ural blocking high（UR） and the AO index is statistically significant.The UR tends to occur more frequently and with greater strength during negative AO periods.Some strong URs also occur during positive AO phases（positive UR-AO events）,as in January 2008.This paper discusses the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the cases of positive UR-AO events and contrast cases（negative UR-AO events）.The eastward extending of the Icelandic Low（IL） center and the associated NAO dipole anomaly pattern in the upstream region may play a more important role for the UR-AO events.When the center of the IL shifts eastward to 30 W,the amplitude of zonal wavenumber 2（wavenumber 3） is intensified in the positive（negative） UR-AO events,which favors positive（negative） height anomalies over the Urals.Further analyses indicate that the intensified zonal wind in high latitudes and weakened zonal wind in midlatitudes over the North Atlantic Ocean render the eastward shift of the IL and the NAO dipole anomaly pattern.The Ural blocking in January 2008 bears similar characteristics to the positive UR-AO events.

1998年夏第二阶段梅雨期乌拉尔山阻塞形势的维持(英文)

The 1998 summer-time floods at the Yangtze River basin of China, the severest in last 50 years or so, directly resulted from the abnormal extension of Meiyu (rainy season), which was related to a weak East Asian summer monsoon and persistent anomalies of extratropical circulation. The long persistence of blocking over the Ural Mountains is a conspicuous feature. The physical processes responsible for the prolonged maintenance of this key system are investigated in terms of internal forcing (transient eddy upon basic flow) and external forcing (tropical heating forcing) via diagnosis and numerical experiments in the paper. Using the adjoint method, the location and structure of optimal perturbations favorable for the development and maintenance of Ural blocking are identified, which shows an apparent coincidence with the observed storm track at the eastern Atlantic to Europe sector. The diagnosis of E-vector and the response of baroclinic stationary wave to transient forcing both suggest further that the enhanced transient eddy activity favors the occurrence and maintenance of positive anomalies. The upper-level jet and heat sources (sinks) during that period are calculated, and the results indicate that the anomaly of upper jet and tropical heating is evident. The ensemble forecasting experiments by a GCM, IAP T42L9 show that the anomalous heating over the tropics, especially over the central-western Pacific and Atlantic, favors the formation of positive anomalies of height at the Ural region. Finally, a self-sustain mechanism of positive anomalies through two-way interaction between planetary stationary wave and transient eddy under the stimulation of anomalous tropical heating is proposed.

Energetics of Boreal Wintertime Blocking Highs around the Ural Mountains

Based on the daily Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,this study analyzes the maintenance mechanism for 53 boreal winter blocking highs around the Ural Mountains(UBHs)during 1958-2018 based on the atmospheric energy budget equations.After decomposing the circulation into background flow,low-frequency anomalies,and high-frequency eddies,it was found that the interaction between the background flow and low-frequency anomalies is conducive to the maintenance of the UBHs.Due to the southwestward gradient in the climatological mean air temperature over the Eurasian continent,it is easy for the air temperature anomalies as well as the wind velocity anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere induced by the UBHs to facilitate the positive conversion of baroclinic energy associated with the background flow into the UBHs.Likewise,the conversion of barotropic energy associated with the background flow is also evident in the upper troposphere,in which the climatological mean westerlies have evident southward gradient to the northwest of Lake Baikal and southwestward gradient over Barents Sea.Note that the conversion of baroclinic energy associated with the background flow is dominant throughout the lifecycle of UBHs,acting as the major contributor to the maintenance of the UBHs.Although transient eddies facilitate maintenance of the UBHs via positive conversion of barotropic energy in the middle and upper troposphere,they hinder the maintenance of UBHs via negative conversion of baroclinic energy in the lower troposphere.The diabatic heating anomalies tend to counteract the local air temperature anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere,which damps the available potential energy of UBHs and acts as a negative contributor to the UBHs.

Wintertime Arctic Sea-Ice Decline Related to Multi-Year La Niña Events

Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents-Kara Sea(BKS)since the late 1990s.Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated by tropical sea temperature changes(mainly referring to La Niña events).The occurrence of multi-year La Niña(MYLA)events has increased significantly in recent decades,and their impact on Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored.In this study,we investigate the relationship between sea-ice variation and different atmospheric diagnostics during MYLA and other La Niña(OTLA)years.The decline in BKS sea ice during MYLA winters is significantly stronger than that during OTLA years.This is because MYLA events tend to be accompanied by a warm Arctic-cold continent pattern with a barotropic high pressure blocked over the Urals region.Consequently,more frequent northward atmospheric rivers intrude into the BKS,intensifying longwave radiation downward to the underlying surface and melting the BKS sea ice.However,in the early winter of OTLA years,a negative North Atlantic Oscillation presents in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,which obstructs the atmospheric rivers to the south of Iceland.We infer that such a different response of BKS sea-ice decline to different La Niña events is related to stratospheric processes.Considering the rapid climate changes in the past,more frequent MYLA events may account for the substantial Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades.