A Summary of Studies on Prediction of Urban Construction Land Scale

Research results of prediction of urban construction land scale were sum- marized from the aspects of influencing factors of construction land expansion and prediction models of construction land scale, and their characteristics and deficiencies of these studies were analyzed to provide reference for deep research on pre- diction of urban construction land scale in China. The results show that there are few studies on basic theories about total scale of construction land presently, and there is no theoretical framework in studies on influencing factors. A single model has been used to conduct prediction on a small scale in most studies, but there have been few studies on iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the exploration of basic theory and mechanism of urban construction land prediction, study iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit, and strengthen the comprehensive application of econometric analysis, spatial analysis and information technology analysis.

Urban Construction Land Suitability Evaluation Based on Improved Multi-criteria Evaluation Based on GIS(MCE-GIS): Case of New Hefei City,China

Urban construction land suitability evaluation （UCLSE） is a complex system engineering and the basis for rational use of the limited urban land resources in China. It has an important practical value on urban construction land use planning and management from the angle of methodology. As a widely used technique, traditional multi-criteria evaluation based on GIS （MCE-GIS）, is not suitable for UCLSE. This study develops an improved MCE-GIS method which could be more suitable for UCLSE based on urban complex ecological system theory and the summary of the shortcomings of traditional MCE-GIS. The improvements include three aspects： a composite evaluation index system rather than natural indexes alone, an index weight calculated by using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method rather than the common AHP method, and the integrated overlay rule, which includes selecting the minimum value, weighted linear combination （WLC） and simple summation. The main advantage of this improved technique is that it can make UCLSE more comprehensive, more operational and more reasonable. It can provide a scientific basis for decision making in the planning and management of urban construction land use. The improved MCE-GIS system has been adopted in the New Hefei City, Anhui Province, China. Based on the results of UCLSE in New Hefei, three functional areas including construction-appropriate areas, construction-restricted areas and construction-forbidden areas could be worked out, in which 36.90% of the total study area could be developed as urban construction land and the remaining 63.10% should be protected as reserves land or as ecological land. Furthermore, the results can orovide scientific decision suooort for spatial planning and eco-environment nrotection in New Hefei.

Analyzing and Pondering on the Regulation of Urban Construction Land Expansion

Along with the economic development and the acceleration of urbanization,urban construction land expands rapidly in China,and has resulted in a series of socio-economic problems.This article summarized the major points of controlling the unchecked and rash expansion of construction land in the academic circle,and analyzed the problems of regulating the expansion of construction land from three aspects.First,this article analyzed the relationships between socio-economic development and urbanization from the historical viewpoints,and pointed out that the expansion of construction land is a historical phenomenon which will be surely appeared in the development of human race.Second,the authors utilized two-sector model to analyze the importance of urbanization in the socio-economic development from the academic angles.At last,the authors utilize four-quadrant model and bidrent curve model to analyze the influence that brought by the strict control of construction land expansion.Through analysis,this article drew some conclusions.First,the expansion of construction land is a phenomenon which will surely appear in the social development.It is impossible to accomplish the national modernization on the basis of dualistic structure between urban and rural areas.Second,under the function of rent gradient gap,strict control of construction land expansion will not only obtain the anticipated effects,but also cause a series of socio-economic problems,such as land-levying contradiction,the appearance of limited property right house,and being dependant on lease instead of expropriation.Third,unreasonable policies and governmental behaviors are the roots of the unchecked and rash expansion of urban construction land.Based on these conclusions,this article proposed that three transformations should be realized to regulate the unchecked and rash expansion of construction land:transfers from quantity regulation to quality regulation,from direct regulation to indirect regulation,and from single-measure regulation to multi-measures regulation.

Government's Role in Urban Construction Land Expansion

Focusing on urban construction land expansion,governmental influence on expansion of urban construction land in China is analyzed from fiscal decentralization,government game and land system.Due to fiscal decentralization and coupled with GDP-based performance evaluation system,local government seeks to maximizing economic profits.Whereas,land systems such as land property,land expropriation and land transfer system,let the local governments' profit seeking behavior achieved.The conclusion is that the government's role in urban construction land expansion is mainly from local governments.

Promoting Poverty Alleviation through the Project of Linkage of Urban Construction Land Increase with Rural Construction Land Decrease——A Case Study of Binchuan County in Yunnan Province

The policy of linkage of urban construction land increase with rural construction land decrease is an important task for poverty alleviation. It not only promotes the intensive use of land and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas,but also plays an essential role in poverty alleviation development and the relocation of poverty alleviation. It provides a strong guarantee for winning the project of poverty alleviation. Taking the project of linkage of urban construction land increase with rural construction land decrease in Binchuan County in Yunnan Province,combined with the current situation of poverty alleviation and relocation in Binchuan County,the implementation of related policies of linkage of urban construction land increase with rural construction land decrease,and path of relocation poverty alleviation,this paper introduced problems in the implementation of policies of linkage of urban construction land increase with rural construction land decrease in Binchuan County,and came up with recommendations for the project of poverty alleviation through linkage of urban construction land increase with rural construction land decrease.

The Decoupling Relationship between the Expansion of Urban Construction Land and Economic Growth in Jilin Province

In order to explore the relationship between urban construction land and economic development, this paper uses a decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between expansion of urban construction land and economic growth in Jilin Province. The results show that from 2000 to 2015, the decoupling of urban construction land expansion and economic growth in Jilin province tended to be reasonable. The paper divides urban decoupling into three categories. The first type consists of ideal cities, including Liaoyuan and Baishan. The second type includes basic ideal cities like Changchun, Tonghua, Songyuan, Baicheng, and Yanbian. The third type consists of non-ideal cities, including Jilin and Siping. This paper puts forward relevant measures to promote the further decoupling of construction land expansion and economic growth in order to realize the sustainable use of land resources.

Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals:A case study of Guangzhou,China

Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Urban Expansion Based on a Novel Adjusted Index and GEE: A Case Study of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, China

It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.In this study,a novel vegetation-building-nighttime light-adjusted index(VBNAI)was established for rapid and effective mapping of urban construction land(UCL)in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration(CPUA),China during 2000–2020 based on Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform.Compared with traditional indices,VBNAI can significantly decrease the blooming effect,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)saturation,and soil background of nighttime light data.In addition,the urban expansion indices and standard deviation ellipse model were synthetically adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of urban expansion.The gravity model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to determine the spatial interaction forces and drivers of urban expansion,respectively.The results showed that the VBNAI index has obvious advantages in efficiency and accuracy to extract UCL with the overall accuracy of more than 91%.The UCL of CPUA had increased by 4489.84 km2 during 2000–2020 with the gravity center moving towards southeast continuously.From 2000 to 2010,the urban expansion was in a‘center-hinterland’pattern which had benefit from the favorable effect of the traffic shaft belt.During 2010–2020,the urban network structure had basically established.Urban expansion had been influenced by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors,and the impact degree varied from region to region.This study could provide scientific references for facilitating the intensive utilization of urban resources and optimizing the spatial development pattern of urban agglomeration.

Spatial differences and driving forces of land urbanization in China

Land urbanization plays an important supporting and restriction role in the rapid and sustainable development of urbanization in China, and it shows distinctive spatial heteroge- neity. Applying urban area as the basic research unit and urban construction land area as the core indicator, this paper establishes the conceptual framework and calculation method for the quantity and rate of land urbanization process. The study evaluates the spatial differen- tiation pattern of absolute and relative process of land urbanization in 658 cities in China from 2000 to 2010. The spatial distribution of cities with rapid land urbanization process is dis- cussed, and the contribution rate and its spatial heterogeneity of major land use types are examined with the aid of GIS. The main conclusions are as follows： （1） Land urbanization in China shows a clear spatial difference. The greater the city scale, the faster its land urbani- zation. The cities with rapid land urbanization show a significant pattern of central distribution in coastal regions and a scattered distribution in the inland regions. （2） Over the last 10 years, the average quantity of land urbanization in the 656 cities was 3.82 km2, the quantity of land urbanization is differentiated by administrative grade. The average rate of land urbanization was 6.89%, obviously faster than the speed of population urbanization. The rate of land ur- banization reveals a pattern of differentiation between coastal and other cities. （3） In the past 10 years, the two primary land use types associated with land urbanization in China are residential and industrial, with a combined contribution rate of 52.49%. The greater the scale of the city, the more significant the driving effect of industrial land. In small- and medium-scale cities of the western and central regions, the growth of residential land is the primary driver of land urbanization, while in coastal urban agglomerations and cities on important communica- tion axes, the growth of industrial land is the main driver. （4） Overall, urban population ag- glomeration, industrial growth and investment are the three drivers of land urbanization in China, but cities of different scales have different drivers.

Reflections and Explorations on the Decremented Regulation of Construction Land in the New Beijing City Master Planning

Construction land use has always been a key point for the planning department to practice national transformation strategy. In the new round of compilation of Beijing City Master Plan, the management of construction land use is under the rigid restriction of the bearing capacity of resources and the environment. Setting the upper-limit of the population size, a general strategy of decremented development of urban-rural construction land has been put forward, in order to realize a transition from quantitative expansion planning to qualitative upgrading planning. By "decremented development," "decremented" means a more rigid bottom-line restriction, and "development" means a more scientific allocation of resources. From the master planning level, the new Beijing City Master Plan establishes a comprehensive control framework and restrictive index system from perspectives including land use scale, construction scale, space boundary, urban and rural structure, land use structure, and cross-boundary collaboration; and in practice, it promotes strict management methods by setting up a dismantle-construction land ratio, dismantle-construction building area ratio, employment and residence land ratio, and "two lines and three districts," which is an exploration on the planning management method of construction land use that is stock-based and decremented master planning. Considering that decremented development is a major reform and a special challenge to planning implementation, the Beijing City Master Plan carries out explorations in terms of the planning management method, land policy, jurisdiction division, assessment and supervision, etc.

不同类型城市建设用地扩张驱动机制比较研究——以京津冀地区为例

Different types of urban construction land are different in terms of driving factors for their expansion.Most existing studies on driving forces for urban construction land expansion have considered the construction urban land as a whole and have not examined and compared the differentiated driving forces for different types of construction land expansion.This study explored the differentiated driving mechanisms for two types of urban construction land expansion by selecting key driving factors and using spatial econometric regression and geographical detector models.The results show that there are significant differences in the driving forces for expansion between the two types of urban construction land.The driving factors of urban land expansion do not necessarily affect industrial parks.And the factors acting on expansion of both types are different in influence degree.For urban expansion,economic density growth,the value-added growth of tertiary industries,and proximity to urban centers have a negative effect.However,urbanization levels and value-added growth of secondary industries have a positive effect.The explanatory power of these factors is arranged in the following descending order:value-added growth of tertiary industries,value-added change of secondary industries,urban population growth,economic density growth,and proximity to urban centers;road network density has no significant effect.For industrial parks expansion,the value-added growth of secondary industries and road network density has a positive effect,while economic density growth has a negative effect.The explanatory power is arranged in the following descending order:value-added growth of secondary industries,road network density,and economic density growth.The findings can help implement differentiated and refined urban land use management policies.