The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was de...The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating anautomatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.展开更多
In order to improve the emergency management capability of urban rail transit system and reduce accidents during metro operation,an emergency management capability evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy proces...In order to improve the emergency management capability of urban rail transit system and reduce accidents during metro operation,an emergency management capability evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is proposed.Based on the Prevention Preparation Response Recovery(PPRR)model,factors influencing the emergency management capability of the urban rail transit system are summarized from the perspective of‘human,machine,environment and management’.Then,an emergency management capability evaluation index system containing of 20 secondary indicators is constructed in four stages:emergency prevention,emergency preparation,emergency response and emergency recovery.The weights of indicators are calculated using the AHP method,and the closeness of each indicator to the optimal solution is analysed with the TOPSIS method.Finally,take the Beijing Metro Line 13 as an example to investigate the level of emergency management capability of urban rail transit.The results show that the emergency management capability of Beijing’s urban rail transit system is‘well’,among which hazard prevention measures(0.31)and emergency response team(0.34)have a greater weight on the emergency management capability of rail transit.The model can more accurately assess the emergency management capability of urban rail transit and provide a basis for emergency management.展开更多
A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion m...A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model＇s performance, using CEDVAL （Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Disper- sion Models） wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios; and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.展开更多
文摘The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating anautomatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.
基金This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Science and Technology Innovation Program for Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi Province(Grants No.2022L448 and 2022L449)the Doctoral Research Startup Project of Shanxi Datong University(Grants No.2020-B-18 and 2020-B-08).
文摘In order to improve the emergency management capability of urban rail transit system and reduce accidents during metro operation,an emergency management capability evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is proposed.Based on the Prevention Preparation Response Recovery(PPRR)model,factors influencing the emergency management capability of the urban rail transit system are summarized from the perspective of‘human,machine,environment and management’.Then,an emergency management capability evaluation index system containing of 20 secondary indicators is constructed in four stages:emergency prevention,emergency preparation,emergency response and emergency recovery.The weights of indicators are calculated using the AHP method,and the closeness of each indicator to the optimal solution is analysed with the TOPSIS method.Finally,take the Beijing Metro Line 13 as an example to investigate the level of emergency management capability of urban rail transit.The results show that the emergency management capability of Beijing’s urban rail transit system is‘well’,among which hazard prevention measures(0.31)and emergency response team(0.34)have a greater weight on the emergency management capability of rail transit.The model can more accurately assess the emergency management capability of urban rail transit and provide a basis for emergency management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375014)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB 952002)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, China
文摘A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model＇s performance, using CEDVAL （Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Disper- sion Models） wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios; and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.
