Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

Granger Causality Test of Urban-rural Income Gap and Employment of Rural Labor Forces——A Case Study of Shouguang City

Taking Shouguang City in Shandong Province as an example, this article researches the mutual relationship between urban-rural income and employment of rural labor forces, and conducting cointegration test and Granger causality test on the variable sequences using statistical data. The results show that the average annual income of rural labor forces influences the income per capita of rural residents, and there is a Granger causality relationship between the income per capita of rural residents and urban employees' average wage. Engaging in production concerning agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery makes the total income per capita in rural areas of Shouguang City higher than the average wage of urban residents in Shouguang City, even in Weifang City. The comparative advantage in terms of income causes the city to loose attraction to rural residents in Shouguang City. The comparative advantage drives more rural labor forces in Shouguang City to engage in primary industry, thereby greatly reducing the pressure of employment and transfer of rural labor forces. Finally important following measures are put forward to promote employment and on-the-spot transfer of rural labor forces: vigorously propel agricultural industrialization; increase rural residents' income; improve the living conditions for rural residents.

The Approaches to Narrowing Urban-Rural Income Gap——From the Perspective of Rural Social Security

From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.

The Impact of the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in the Yangtze River Delta on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

Firstly,this paper conducts theoretical analysis and current situation analysis,and then proposes research hypotheses.Secondly,using spatial Dubin model and partial differential method,it empirically studies the impact of industrial structure advancement and rationalization on the urban-rural income gap.The results show that:(1)Both industrial structure and urban-rural income gap have significant spatial dependence;(2)The increase in the industrial structure rationalization will narrow the urban-rural income gap in local region,while its spillover effect on neighboring areas is not obvious.(3)The impact of the industrial structure advancement on the urban-rural income gap is not linear.It is first expanded and then narrowed.The industrial structure advancement in the Yangtze River Delta will generally narrow the urban-rural income gap at this stage.Finally,this paper put forward relevant suggestions.

Research on the Impact of Rural Labour Forces Transfer on the Urban-rural Income Based on Economics of Discrimination

On the basis of the analytical frame of discrimination, the thesis establishes a model of transfer of rural labour forces into city, and researches the impact of rural labour forces transfer on urban-rural income. The results show that the transfer of rural labour forces into city can increase urban-rural income and bridge the income gap between city and village to a certain extent. However, the capital stock of city in China is greatly more than that of the village, so the rural labour forces transfer cannot eliminate the urban-rural income gap completely. In order to elevate the rural income level in China and narrow urban-rural income gap, the government should paint a picture with two brushes at the same time: on one hand, the government should promote the transfer of rural labour forces into city, and change the status quo of dual urban-rural labour forces market structure; on the other hand, the government should increase the input in rural areas and promote the increase of rural capital stock so as to further increase rural residents' income in the process of labour forces transfer.

公平竞争审查制度能否缩小企业内部薪酬差距?

缩小企业内部薪酬差距对缓解收入不平等和实现共同富裕具有重要意义。本文基于2010—2020年中国A股上市公司数据,运用双重差分模型实证检验了公平竞争审查制度对企业内部薪酬差距的影响及其作用机制。研究结果显示:公平竞争审查制度缩小了企业内部薪酬差距,其对高管平均薪酬有显著负向影响,而对普通员工平均薪酬的影响不显著;公平竞争审查制度对企业内部薪酬差距的影响在非国有企业、高管持股比例较高企业和产业政策扶持行业的企业更明显;公平竞争审查制度通过促进市场竞争、规范政府补贴和规范税收优惠缩小企业内部薪酬差距;公平竞争审查制度对企业内部薪酬差距的影响是通过缩小超额薪酬差距实现的。本文丰富了企业内部薪酬差距影响因素方面的研究,也为进一步探索企业内部薪酬差距的治理机制提供了新视角。

外贸是否会带来工资差距及技能极化?——来自中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的经验证据

本文研究在应对贸易一体化时我国不同技能劳动者之间的工资差距和技能分布如何作出相应的反应。利用2010—2020年期间中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据、联合国贸易数据(UNComtrade)等构造面板,在控制内生性问题的基础上,估计结果表明贸易对以所受教育为基准的中级和初级技能劳动者之间的工资差距有负面影响,对高级和中级技能组间的工资差距则有积极影响。且前者对于劳动技能的均值和分布具有负向作用,后者则有正向作用。因此,外贸活动会诱发技能极化,而工资差距解释了由贸易导致技能极化作用的50%。此外,在中年工人组以及高技术密集型行业中,收入差距特别是高中级技能组间的收入差距所带来的技能极化问题更为突出。鉴于一国的技能分配会长远地影响到未来的经济增长和不平等,因此,了解工资收入分配的变化并在政策设计中予以充分考虑至关重要,本文在劳动保障和教育支持等方面提出了相关的政策建议。

外资进入与女性就业——基于就业率和性别工资差距的双重视角

在中国性别就业差异逐渐扩大的背景下,探讨吸引和利用外商直接投资能否为提高女性就业比例和缩小性别工资差距提供新的动力,对实现中国劳动力市场性别平等、共享对外开放成果至关重要。基于1998~2021年中国省际面板数据和中国家庭收入调查数据库,从就业率和性别工资差距的双重视角出发,实证分析外资进入对中国女性就业的影响及其机制,并考察外资进入速度的调节效应。研究结果表明,外资进入能够提高女性就业率和缩小性别工资差距。异质性分析表明,以独资方式进入的外商直接投资和来自欧美国家的外商直接投资更有助于提高女性就业率和缩小性别工资差距;同时,外资进入对女性就业的积极作用在私营内资企业、高性别平等化地区、东部地区以及第三产业中影响更大。影响机制结果表明,增加市场竞争程度和促进技术进步是外资进入能够提高女性就业率和缩小性别工资差距的主要渠道。从调节效应上看,过快的外资进入速度减缓了外资进入对提高女性就业率和缩小性别工资差距的积极影响。因此,应通过完善市场竞争机制、提高企业技术水平、合理把控外资进入速度等措施,充分发挥外资进入对提高女性就业率和缩小性别工资差距的重要作用。研究结果为促进女性共享对外开放成果和经济可持续发展提供了新思路。

数字经济与技能工资差距——基于CFPS的微观证据

随着引领新一轮科技革命和产业升级的数字技术发展,数字经济必将对中国的就业和收入分配格局产生重大影响,使技能工资差距呈现新特征。通过测度2018年中国各行业的数字经济发展水平,借助普通最小二乘法、无条件分位数回归与Oaxaca-Blinder分解等方法,考察数字经济发展对技能工资差距的影响及其作用机制。结果发现:(1)数字经济显著提高了低技能劳动者工资收入,且能缩小低技能群体和高技能群体内部中低收入差距;(2)数字经济能通过就业创造效应和时间投入效应为劳动者提供更多就业机会和就业岗位,提高工作强度,缩小技能工资差距,但职位晋升效应难以充分发挥;(3)数字经济对不同行业部门和不同社会资本群体的技能工资差距的影响存在显著的差异性。据此提出继续推进数字技术发展、积极探索数字经济背景下对高收入的规范与调节路径、完善对低技能群体的劳动权益保障体系、加强学习型社会建设,并以数字化改革推动公共服务高质量发展和实现基本公共服务均等化等政策建议。

职业教育促进共同富裕的现实路径:工资效应与分配效应

扎实推进共同富裕是攸关中华民族伟大复兴的重大课题。文章通过分析中国家庭收入调查数据,以教育回报率及工资收入差距的分解作为测量指标,对职业教育促进共同富裕的现实路径进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)利用描述性统计发现城乡居民的工资水平对其所接受的职业教育层级具有依附性的特征;(2)进一步通过普通最小二乘法进行基准测量,发现高职教育回报率比中职教育高出21.3%,比本科教育低9.9%;(3)利用无条件分位数回归及其分解技术,发现职业教育在促进共同富裕时具有“提低”和“扩高”的异质性收益特征,仅考虑人力资本因素时,职业教育引致的工资收入差距具有“粘地板效应”的特征。文章在此基础上提出了以职业教育为抓手,扎实推进共同富裕的现实方案。

制造业投入数字化、就业技能结构与技能工资差距

基于2007—2020年中国上市公司微观数据,检验制造业投入数字化对我国企业就业技能结构和技能工资差距的影响。结果表明:(1)投入数字化总体上会提高就业规模,增加高技能劳动力占比,减少中低技能劳动力占比,有利于就业结构升级。(2)投入数字化在促进就业技能结构升级的同时,还会通过增加高技能和技术人员占比扩大内部技能工资差距。(3)异质性分析表明,基于机器技术的投入数字化能够同时带来高技能劳动力就业创造和中低技能劳动力就业破坏,而非机器技术的投入数字化对劳动力的就业效应不显著。投入数字化对所在地数字化发展水平高的企业就业结构升级、扩大技能工资差距的影响显著,对所在地数字化发展水平低的企业就业影响不显著。投入数字化对教育培训支出高的企业会带来就业创造和破坏,缩小技能工资差距;对教育培训支出低的企业就业结构影响不显著,会扩大技能工资差距。

居民收入差距的主要来源发生转变了吗?——基于城乡二元结构的分解测算

如何缩小收入差距,实现人类共同富裕,成为广大学者关注的焦点。在现有研究中,如何测量居民收入差距,是分析收入差距问题的关键。随着越来越多的农村人口进城,居民收入差距的主要来源是否由过去的城乡收入差距发生了转变?鉴于此,通过分布函数加总的方法,从理论上将基尼系数按照农村与城镇的群组分解,得到基尼系数由农村内部、城镇内部、城乡之间与剩余项四部分组成。利用2005—2021年农村与城镇的收入分组数据测算了每一部分的基尼系数及其对居民收入差距的贡献度,并根据每一部分的贡献度来判断各时期居民收入差距的主要来源。主要结果显示,2012年之前中国居民的收入差距主要来源于城乡之间,而2012年之后的收入差距主要来源于城镇内部,这部分比重正随着城镇人口的增加不断扩大,并且工资性收入的不平等是城镇居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。针对结论提出了相应的政策建议:一方面,政府需要制定缩小工资性收入不平等性的政策,例如,深化工资制度改革,加强对部分行业工资总额和工资水平的双重调控,缩小城镇居民的工资水平差距;另一方面,加强对低收入人群转移性收入的政策性偏向,完善再分配调节机制。

工资差距对民营中小企业创新活动的影响——基于劳动力市场部门分割视角

民营中小企业截至2020年底已经贡献了占我国专利总量中近8成的专利,它们不仅是我国创新活动的主体,还提供了我国全部就业岗位中8成左右的就业岗位。然而它们在我国企业群体中也属于弱势群体,除了面临传统的融资难问题外,民营中小企业在劳动力市场中也处于不利地位,过去三年的疫情恶化了这一问题。文章按地区加行业划分样本个体并结合中国工业企业数据库与中国专利数据库作为样本数据,来研究国有企业与民营中小企业的工资差距对民营中小企业创新活动的影响。通过分析人才挤出、要素替代与创业活动等渠道发现这一工资差距扩大将削弱民营中小企业的创新活动。异质性分析表明工资待遇更高的民营中小企业群体的创新活动受这一工资差距的影响更大,因而工资待遇较高且与同行业国有企业有更为直接竞争关系的“专精特新”类民营中小企业的创新活动会遭受工资差距扩大带来的更多不利影响。因此各级政府应该给予民营中小企业更多的人才政策倾斜,在国企改革涉及收入分配时统筹这一因素,以培育更多“专精特新”中小企业,助力“中国制造2025”。

行业工资差距、预期寿命异质性与延迟法定退休年龄研究

基于行业工资差距和预期寿命的异质性视角,本文研究了延迟法定退休年龄问题。研究发现:首先,行业工资差距并未表现出长期递减趋势,因此研究延迟法定退休年龄不应忽视行业工资差距。其次,工资水平与预期寿命正相关,从事低收入行业的人员因延迟退休而受到的不利影响更大,政府在制定政策时应该要关注这类群体。最后,虽然延迟退休缩短了养老金领取年限,但是却提高了各年养老金待遇。这两个因素相互作用使得延迟退休对参保者养老保险净收益的影响呈现U形特征。也就是说,当退休年龄较低时,延迟退休能降低养老保险净收益,这有助于缓解政府养老保险基金收支压力;反之,当退休年龄较高时,延迟退休反而加剧了政府养老保险基金收支压力。由此可知,在当前养老保险制度下延迟法定退休年龄政策是有年龄上限的。研究还发现,在中国预期寿命逐渐提高的背景下,如果不断提高个人账户养老金计发月数,降低个人账户养老金待遇,退休年龄对养老保险净收益的影响就会逐渐从U形特征转变为单调递减趋势。为抵消人口老龄化加速趋势对养老保险基金收支的不利影响,政府应制定逐步延迟法定退休年龄的配套措施,提高个人账户养老金计发月数。

数字经济发展对行业工资差距的影响研究

缩小行业工资差距是实现中国共同富裕的重要途径,探究当前火热的数字经济发展对行业工资差距的影响具有较大的现实意义。基于2011-2020年省级面板数据实证探讨数字经济发展对行业工资差距的影响,研究结果表明:随着我国数字经济的发展,行业间工资差距逐渐扩大,该结论在内生性处理及稳健性检验下仍成立;数字经济发展对各地区行业间工资差距的影响具有差异性,其中对于中部地区的正向影响最大。基于上述结论,为缩小行业工资差距,实现共同富裕提供了政策启示。

Income Gap Between Urban and Rural Residents in Guangxi on the Impact of Agricultural Development

The gap between urban and rural incomes in Guangxi is increasing year by year in a rising tendency,which resulted in agricultural development impact cannot be ignored.Such impact on agricultural development was analyzed from three aspects:agricultural development fund,farmland and food problems and labor force flow.The following problems were found:capitals flew to non-agricultural industry,which resulted in deficiency of agricultural development fund;farmland reduced and the problem of food supply was highlighted;labor force in rural areas emigrated,the price of agricultural products rose up.Related policies were offered:to strengthen the financial support;to speed up utilization of abundant labor force;to motivate farmers' enthusiasm in food production;to increase investment in farmers' endowment insurance and retirement pension in rural areas.

Gap between Urban and Rural Economic Development in Less Developed Areas——A Case of Northern Jiangsu Area,China

Taking northern Jiangsu area as an example,economic disparity between urban and rural areas is described according to the data in 2000-2009 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook.Result shows that there are significant differences in the rural and urban economic development in less developed areas,which are mainly reflected in the differences in per capita income,living standard,and Engel coefficient.Reasons for urban and rural economic disparity in less developed areas are analyzed.The asymmetry and immobility of rural and urban resources have objectively caused the income gap between urban and rural residents;urban industrial development,which is faster than agricultural development,has widened the income gap between urban and rural residents;and the differences in comparative labor productivity in rural and urban areas have enlarged their income gap.Countermeasures to minimize the urban and rural economic development gap are put forward,such as deepening the reform,realizing the free flow of economic resources between urban and rural areas,developing rural areas through urban development,exerting the function of urban areas in the coordinated development of urban and rural areas,paying attention to the agriculture and rural areas,and improving the comparative labor productivity of agriculture.