Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process simulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Accurate and efficient remaining useful life prediction of batteries enabled by physics-informed machine learning

The safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries necessitates the accurate prediction of remaining useful life(RUL).However,this task is challenging due to the diverse ageing mechanisms,various operating conditions,and limited measured signals.Although data-driven methods are perceived as a promising solution,they ignore intrinsic battery physics,leading to compromised accuracy,low efficiency,and low interpretability.In response,this study integrates domain knowledge into deep learning to enhance the RUL prediction performance.We demonstrate accurate RUL prediction using only a single charging curve.First,a generalisable physics-based model is developed to extract ageing-correlated parameters that can describe and explain battery degradation from battery charging data.The parameters inform a deep neural network(DNN)to predict RUL with high accuracy and efficiency.The trained model is validated under 3 types of batteries working under 7 conditions,considering fully charged and partially charged cases.Using data from one cycle only,the proposed method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 11.42 cycles and a mean absolute relative error(MARE)of 3.19%on average,which are over45%and 44%lower compared to the two state-of-the-art data-driven methods,respectively.Besides its accuracy,the proposed method also outperforms existing methods in terms of efficiency,input burden,and robustness.The inherent relationship between the model parameters and the battery degradation mechanism is further revealed,substantiating the intrinsic superiority of the proposed method.

Yields,growth and water use under chemical topping in relations to row configuration and plant density in drip-irrigated cotton

Background Water deficit is an important problem in agricultural production in arid regions.With the advent of wholly mechanized technology for cotton planting in Xinjiang,it is important to determine which planting mode could achieve high yield,fiber quality and water use efficiency(WUE).This study aimed to explore if chemical topping affected cotton yield,quality and water use in relation to row configuration and plant densities.Results Experiments were carried out in Xinjiang China,in 2020 and 2021 with two topping method,manual topping and chemical topping,two plant densities,low and high,and two row configurations,i.e.,76 cm equal rows and 10+66 cm narrow-wide rows,which were commonly applied in matching harvest machine.Chemical topping increased seed cotton yield,but did not affect cotton fiber quality comparing to traditional manual topping.Under equal row spacing,the WUE in higher density was 62.4%higher than in the lower one.However,under narrow-wide row spacing,the WUE in lower density was 53.3%higher than in higher one(farmers’practice).For machine-harvest cotton in Xinjiang,the optimal row configuration and plant density for chemical topping was narrow-wide rows with 15 plants m-2 or equal rows with 18 plants m-2.Conclusion The plant density recommended in narrow-wide rows was less than farmers’practice and the density in equal rows was moderate with local practice.Our results provide new knowledge on optimizing agronomic managements of machine-harvested cotton for both high yield and water efficient.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use eco-efficiency and its influencing factors in China from 2000 to 2020

Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.

Integrated assessment of yield,nitrogen use efficiency and ecosystem economic benefits of use of controlled-release and common urea in ratoon rice production

Controlled-release urea(CRU)is commonly used to improve the crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE).However,few studies have investigated the effects of CRU in the ratoon rice system.Ratoon rice is the practice of obtaining a second harvest from tillers originating from the stubble of the previously harvested main crop.In this study,a 2-year field experiment using a randomized complete block design was conducted to determine the effects of CRU on the yield,NUE,and economic benefits of ratoon rice,including the main crop,to provide a theoretical basis for fertilization of ratoon rice.The experiment included four treatments:(i)no N fertilizer(CK);(ii)traditional practice with 5 applications of urea applied at different crop growth stages by surface broadcasting(FFP);(iii)one-time basal application of CRU(BF1);and(iv)one-time basal application of CRU combined with common urea(BF2).The BF1 and BF2 treatments significantly increased the main crop yield by 17.47 and 15.99%in 2019,and by 17.91 and 16.44%in 2020,respectively,compared with FFP treatment.The BF2 treatment achieved similar yield of the ratoon crop to the FFP treatment,whereas the BF1 treatment significantly increased the yield of the ratoon crop by 14.81%in 2019 and 12.21%in 2020 compared with the FFP treatment.The BF1 and BF2 treatments significantly improved the 2-year apparent N recovery efficiency,agronomic NUE,and partial factor productivity of applied N by 11.47-16.66,27.31-44.49,and 9.23-15.60%,respectively,compared with FFP treatment.The BF1 and BF2 treatments reduced the chalky rice rate and chalkiness of main and ratoon crops relative to the FFP treatment.Furthermore,emergy analysis showed that the production efficiency of the BF treatments was higher than that of the FFP treatment.The BF treatments reduced labor input due to reduced fertilization times and improved the economic benefits of ratoon rice.Compared with the FFP treatment,the BF1 and BF2 treatments increased the net income by 14.21-16.87 and 23.76-25.96%,respectively.Overall,the one-time blending use of CRU and common urea should be encouraged to achieve high yield,high nitrogen use efficiency,and good quality of ratoon rice,which has low labor input and low apparent N loss.

Land use change and its driving factors in the ecological function area:A case study in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is important for the provision of ecosystem services.An increasing number of recent studies link LUCC processes to ecosystem services and human well-being at different scales recently.However,the dynamic of land use and its drivers receive insufficient attention within ecological function areas,particularly in quantifying the dynamic roles of climate change and human activities on land use based on a long time series.This study utilizes geospatial analysis and geographical detectors to examine the temporal dynamics of land use patterns and their underlying drivers in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province from 1990 to 2020.Results indicated that grassland,cropland,and forestland collectively accounted for approximately 99% of the total land area.Cropland initially increased and then decreased after 2000,while grassland decreased with fluctuations.In contrast,forestland and construction land were continuously expanded,with net growth areas of 6235.2 and 455.9 km^(2),respectively.From 1990 to 2020,cropland was converted to grassland,and both of them were converted to forestland as a whole.The expansion of construction land primarily originated from cropland.From 2000 to 2005,land use experienced intensified temporal dynamics and a shift of relatively active zones from the central to the southeastern region.Grain yield,economic factors,and precipitation were the major factors accounting for most land use changes.Climatic impacts on land use changes were stronger before 1995,succeeded by the impact of animal husbandry during 1995-2000,followed by the impacts of grain production and gross domestic product(GDP)after 2000.Moreover,agricultural and pastoral activities,coupled with climate change,exhibited stronger enhancement effects after 2000 through their interaction with population and economic factors.These patterns closely correlated with ecological restoration projects in China since 1999.This study implies the importance of synergy between human activity and climate change for optimizing land use via ecological patterns in the ecological function area.

Effect of land use on soil nematode community composition and co-occurrence network relationship

Land use influences soil biota community composition and diversity,and then belowground ecosystem processes and functions.To characterize the effect of land use on soil biota,soil nematode communities in crop land,forest land and fallow land were investigated in six regions of northern China.Generic richness,diversity,abundance and biomass of soil nematodes was the lowest in crop land.The richness and diversity of soil nematodes were 28.8and 15.1%higher in fallow land than in crop land,respectively.No significant differences in soil nematode indices were found between forest land and fallow land,but their network keystone genera composition was different.Among the keystone genera,50%of forest land genera were omnivores-predators and 36%of fallow land genera were bacterivores.The proportion of fungivores in forest land was 20.8%lower than in fallow land.The network complexity and the stability were lower in crop land than forest land and fallow land.Soil pH,NH_(4)^(+)-N and NO_(3)^(–)-N were the major factors influencing the soil nematode community in crop land while soil organic carbon and moisture were the major factors in forest land.Soil nematode communities in crop land influenced by artificial management practices were more dependent on the soil environment than communities in forest land and fallow land.Land use induced soil environment variation and altered network relationships by influencing trophic group proportions among keystone nematode genera.

An Investigation on Open-RAN Specifications:Use Cases,Security Threats,Requirements,Discussions

The emergence of various technologies such as terahertz communications,Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces(RIS),and AI-powered communication services will burden network operators with rising infrastructure costs.Recently,the Open Radio Access Network(O-RAN)has been introduced as a solution for growing financial and operational burdens in Beyond 5G(B5G)and 6G networks.O-RAN promotes openness and intelligence to overcome the limitations of traditional RANs.By disaggregating conventional Base Band Units(BBUs)into O-RAN Distributed Units(O-DU)and O-RAN Centralized Units(O-CU),O-RAN offers greater flexibility for upgrades and network automation.However,this openness introduces new security challenges compared to traditional RANs.Many existing studies overlook these security requirements of the O-RAN networks.To gain deeper insights into the O-RAN system and security,this paper first provides an overview of the general O-RAN architecture and its diverse use cases relevant to B5G and 6G applications.We then delve into specifications of O-RAN security threats and requirements,aiming to mitigate security vulnerabilities effectively.By providing a comprehensive understanding of O-RAN architecture,use cases,and security considerations,thisworkserves as a valuable resource for future research in O-RAN and its security.

Effects of thinning and understory removal on water use efficiency of Pinus massoniana:evidence from photosynthetic capacity and stable carbon isotope analyses

Understanding the relationship between forest management and water use efficiency(WUE)is important for evaluating forest adaptability to climate change.However,the effects of thinning and understory removal on WUE and its key controlling processes are not well understood,which limits our comprehension of the physiological mechanisms of various management practices.In this study,four forest management measures(no thinning:NT;understory removal:UR;light thinning:LT;and heavy thinning:HT)were carried out in Pinus massoniana plantations in a subtropical region of China.Photosynthetic capacity and needle stable carbon isotope composition(δ^(13)C)were measured to assess instantaneous water use efficiency(WUE_(inst))and long-term water use efficiency(WUE_(i)).Multiple regression models and structural equation modelling(SEM)identified the effects of soil properties and physiological performances on WUE_(inst)and WUE_(i).The results show that WUE_(inst)values among the four treatments were insignificant.However,compared with the NT stand(35.8μmol·mol^(-1)),WUE_(i)values significantly increased to 41.7μmol·mol^(-1)in the UR,50.1μmol·mol^(-1)in the LT and 46.6μmol·mol^(-1)in HT treatments,largely explained by photosynthetic capacity and soil water content.Understory removal did not change physiological performance(needle water potential and photosynthetic capacity).Thinning increased the net photosynthetic rate(A_n)but not stomatal conductance(g_s)or predawn needle water potential(ψ_(pd)),implying that the improvement in water use efficiency for thinned stands was largely driven by radiation interception than by soil water availability.In general,thinning may be an appropriate management measure to promote P.massoniana WUE to cope with seasonal droughts under future extreme climates.

Activity Pattern and Habitat Use of Shorebirds in an Artificial Wetland Complex:A Case Study of Breeding Pied Avocet in the Yellow River Delta,China

With the loss of substantial natural wetlands in coastal zones,artificial wetlands provide alternative habitats for many shorebirds.Scientific management of artificial wetlands used by shorebirds plays an important role in maintaining the stability of shorebird population.Satellite tracking technique can obtain high-precision location information of individuals day and night,providing a good technical support for the study of quantitative relationship between waterfowls and their habitats.In this study,satellite tracking method,Remote Sensing(RS)and Geographic Information System(GIS)technology were used to analyze the activity pattern and habitat utilization characteristics of Pied Avocet during breeding period in an artificial wetland complex in the Yellow River Delta(YRD),China.The results showed that the breeding Pied Avocets had a small range of activity,with a total core and main home range of 33.10 km^(2) and 216.30 km^(2),respectively.This species tended to forage in the pond and salt pan during the day and night,respectively,with an unfixed staying time in the breeding ground.The distance between breeding ground and feeding ground was less than 6 km.It is emphasized that in addition to improving the conditions of the remaining natural habitats,effective managing artificial habitats is a priority for shorebird conservation.This research could provide reference for the management of artificial wetlands in coastal zones and supply technique support for the protection of shorebirds and their habitats,and alleviate human-bird conflicts and sustainable development of coastal zones.

Remaining Useful Life for Heavy-Duty Railway Cast Steel Knuckles Based on Crack Growth Behavior with Hypothetical Distributions

The current research on the integrity of critical structures of rail vehicles mainly focuses on the design stage,which needs an effective method for assessing the service state.This paper proposes a framework for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of in-service structures with and without visible cracks.The hypothetical distribution and delay time models were used to apply the equivalent crack growth life data of heavy-duty railway cast steel knuckles,which revealed the evolution characteristics of the crack length and life scores of the knuckle under different fracture failure modes.The results indicate that the method effectively predicts the RUL of service knuckles in different failure modes based on the cumulative failure probability curves for different locations and surface crack lengths.This study proposes an RUL prediction framework that supports the dynamic overhaul and state maintenance of knuckle fatigue cracks.

Regulation effects of water and nitrogen on yield,water,and nitrogen use efficiency of wolfberry

Wolfberry(Lycium barbarum L.)is important for health care and ecological protection.However,it faces problems of low productivity and resource utilization during planting.Exploring reasonable models for water and nitrogen management is important for solving these problems.Based on field trials in 2021 and 2022,this study analyzed the effects of controlling soil water and nitrogen application levels on wolfberry height,stem diameter,crown width,yield,and water(WUE)and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE).The upper and lower limits of soil water were controlled by the percentage of soil water content to field water capacity(θ_(f)),and four water levels,i.e.,adequate irrigation(W0,75%-85%θ_(f)),mild water deficit(W1,65%-75%θ_(f)),moderate water deficit(W2,55%-65%θ_(f)),and severe water deficit(W3,45%-55%θ_(f))were used,and three nitrogen application levels,i.e.,no nitrogen(N0,0 kg/hm^(2)),low nitrogen(N1,150 kg/hm^(2)),medium nitrogen(N2,300 kg/hm^(2)),and high nitrogen(N3,450 kg/hm^(2))were implied.The results showed that irrigation and nitrogen application significantly affected plant height,stem diameter,and crown width of wolfberry at different growth stages(P<0.01),and their maximum values were observed in W1N2,W0N2,and W1N3 treatments.Dry weight per plant and yield of wolfberry first increased and then decreased with increasing nitrogen application under the same water treatment.Dry weight per hundred grains and dry weight percentage increased with increasing nitrogen application under W0 treatment.However,under other water treatments,the values first increased and then decreased with increasing nitrogen application.Yield and its component of wolfberry first increased and then decreased as water deficit increased under the same nitrogen treatment.Irrigation water use efficiency(IWUE,8.46 kg/(hm^(2)·mm)),WUE(6.83 kg/(hm^(2)·mm)),partial factor productivity of nitrogen(PFPN,2.56 kg/kg),and NUE(14.29 kg/kg)reached their highest values in W2N2,W1N2,W1N2,and W1N1 treatments.Results of principal component analysis(PCA)showed that yield,WUE,and NUE were better in W1N2 treatment,making it a suitable water and nitrogen management mode for the irrigation area of the Yellow River in the Gansu Province,China and similar planting areas.

Spatio-temporal evolution and topographic gradient effect of land use and ecosystem service value in the Lhasa River Basin

The Lhasa River Basin forms an essential human settlement area in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This study employed ecosystem service value(ESV)evaluation model,terrain gradient grading,and Geodetector to analyze land use and ESV in the Lhasa River Basin from 1985 to 2020.The findings reveal that:(1)From 1985 to 2020,grassland was the dominant land use.There was a trend of grassland reduction and the expansion of other land types.(2)ESV has increased over the research period(with a total increase of 0.84%),with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.Grassland contributed the most to ESV,and climate regulation and hydrological regulation were the ecosystem services that contribute the most to ESV.(3)Natural factors like NDVI and altitude,as well as economic factors like population density and distance from roads,influenced the spatial differentiation of ESV,the explanatory power of NDVI reached up to 0.47.The interaction between factors had a greater impact than individual factors.These research results can provide theoretical support for national spatial planning and ecological environment protection in the Lhasa River Basin and other similar areas.

Comprehending drivers of land use land cover change from 1999 to 2021 in the Pithoragarh District,Kumaon Himalaya,Uttarakhand,India

The Himalayan region has been experiencing stark impacts of climate change,demographic and livelihood pattern changes.The analysis of land use and land cover(LULC)change provides insights into the shifts in spatial and temporal patterns of landscape.These changes are the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural/climatic factors.The present study attempts to monitor and comprehend the main drivers behind LULC changes(1999-2021)in the Himalayan region of Pithoragarh district,Uttarakhand.Pithoragarh district is a border district,remotely located in the north-east region of Uttarakhand,India.The study draws upon primary and secondary data sources.A total of 400 household surveys and five group discussions from 38 villages were conducted randomly to understand the climate perception of the local community and the drivers of change.Satellite imagery,CRU(Climatic Research Unit)climate data and climate perception data from the field have been used to comprehensively comprehend,analyze,and discuss the trends and reasons for LULC change.GIS and remote sensing techniques were used to construct LULC maps.This multifaceted approach ensures comprehensive and corroborated information.Five classes were identified and formed viz-cultivation,barren,settlement,snow,and vegetation.Results show that vegetation and builtup have increased whereas cultivation,barren land,and snow cover have decreased.The study further aims to elucidate the causes behind LULC changes in the spatially heterogeneous region,distinguishing between those attributed to human activities,climate shifts,and the interconnected impacts of both.The study provides a comprehensive picture of the study area and delivers a targeted understanding of local drivers and their potential remedies by offering a foundation for formulating sustainable adaptation policies in the region.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Considering Ecosystem Services for a Dense-Population Watershed Based on a Hybrid Dual-Subject Agent and Cellular Automaton Modeling Approach

Land use/land cover represents the interactive and comprehensive influences between human activities and natural conditions,leading to potential conflicts among natural and human-related issues as well as among stakeholders.This study introduced economic standards for farmers.A hybrid approach(CA-ABM)of cellular automaton(CA)and an agent-based model(ABM)was developed to effectively deal with social and land-use synergic issues to examine human–environment interactions and projections of land-use conversions for a humid basin in south China.Natural attributes and socioeconomic data were used to analyze land use/land cover and its drivers of change.The major modules of the CA-ABM are initialization,migration,assets,land suitability,and land-use change decisions.Empirical estimates of the factors influencing the urban land-use conversion probability were captured using parameters based on a spatial logistic regression(SLR)model.Simultaneously,multicriteria evaluation(MCE)and Markov models were introduced to obtain empirical estimates of the factors affecting the probability of ecological land conversion.An agent-based CA-SLR-MCE-Markov(ABCSMM)land-use conversion model was proposed to explore the impacts of policies on land-use conversion.This model can reproduce observed land-use patterns and provide links for forest transition and urban expansion to land-use decisions and ecosystem services.The results demonstrated land-use simulations under multi-policy scenarios,revealing the usefulness of the model for normative research on land-use management.