Analysis on the Theory of Blow-up and Verification on Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in Sichuan Basin

By dint of V-3θ diagram from the Blown-up theory,a continuous heavy rain process in western Sichuan basin from July 14 to 17,2009 is analyzed in this paper.Situation field and precipitation of ECWMF and T213 are verified and discussed.Results show that V-3θ diagram can describe the heavy rain process accurately.Combining with additional conventional weather charts,experience and numerical forecast products,the heavy rain falling area is determined.The forecast accuracy of situation field of EC is significantly higher than that of T213 and the forecast accuracy of T213 for heavy rain forecast is relatively low.

2017年鹰潭市区4次暴雨天气学特征分析

使用MICAPS常规天气、自动气象站等资料,采用天气学和形态分析方法,对2017年鹰潭市4次市区暴雨过程进行分析,结果表明:1)4次市区暴雨持续最长时间的是15 h,最短时间是6 h,均值是11.7 h;2)地面倒槽、准静止锋、地面辐合线、地面气旋、西南急流、低涡、切变线等系统是产生暴雨天气的主要天气系统;3)V-3θ图上呈现"一"字型横向平直分布和竖向准重合型,表明对流层水汽充沛且深厚,有利于产生暴雨天气。