通过对2013年6月6日20时-7日20时北京地区出现的中到大雨、局地暴雨的天气过程的大尺度天气环流背景、物理量场、北京多普勒雷达产品和海淀风廓线探测数据、VDRAS反演物理量等多种资料详细分析,得出如下结论：1）本次过程500 h Pa北京...通过对2013年6月6日20时-7日20时北京地区出现的中到大雨、局地暴雨的天气过程的大尺度天气环流背景、物理量场、北京多普勒雷达产品和海淀风廓线探测数据、VDRAS反演物理量等多种资料详细分析,得出如下结论：1）本次过程500 h Pa北京处于从河套以东至长江中下游地区的低槽槽前,温度槽落后于高度槽,地面处于东高西低的形势场中。2）北京处于850 h Paθ（se）高能舌的前部,为对流性天气的出现提供了良好的能量条件。3）强回波在单点稳定少动或多个降水云团先后经过同一地区,造成该地区降水偏大。4）超低空急流加强,且风向由东南转为偏南,南风分量明显加大,有利于水汽的输送和辐合,有利于出现短时强降水。5）据VDRAS反演物理量场的分析,某地区较长时间处于扰动温度相对大值区（0.9-1.2℃）,与该区域降水较大相对应。强回波的合并与维持和其位于东南风和偏南风的辐合区中相关联。6）对EC、T639数值模式降水预报的检验表明,数值模式对明显大尺度系统影响的降水过程预报效果较好,EC对本次过程的预报能力优于T639。展开更多
应用常规观测资料与地面加密自动站、卫星云图、多普勒雷达等多种非常规观测资料以及雷达变分同化分析系统(VDRAS)分析场资料,对2013年7月1日天津南部大暴雨中尺度对流系统的结构、演变特征及其成因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)大暴雨发生...应用常规观测资料与地面加密自动站、卫星云图、多普勒雷达等多种非常规观测资料以及雷达变分同化分析系统(VDRAS)分析场资料,对2013年7月1日天津南部大暴雨中尺度对流系统的结构、演变特征及其成因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)大暴雨发生在副热带高压边缘暖湿气流、低空700—850 h Pa暖性切变线、高低空急流有利配置的背景下,属暖区暴雨。(2)大暴雨由若干β中尺度对流云团合并加强后的α中尺度对流云团造成,对应雷达,强降雨是由西南方向不断移入天津南部的γ中尺度对流单体发展加强,并先后组织成若干东—西向带状β中尺度对流系统先东北后偏东方向移动造成的,在大港南部有列车效应,具有典型的热带型降水回波特征。(3)逆风区的出现、中空急流向低层伸展,低空急流、超低空急流先后形成并加强,是降水强度加强的重要原因。(4)地面中尺度切变线的维持、加强和中尺度低压倒槽东移、发展、入海加强为中尺度气旋,是先后造成对流单体发展加强并组织成带状中尺度对流系统的两个中尺度系统。(5)近地层中尺度切变线是地面中尺度切变线形成的原因,对流单体前侧的偏南冷性水平出流的叠加,一方面增强了沿切变线的辐合,一方面也加大了低层的水汽输送;带状对流系统后侧的偏北冷性水平出流与东南气流形成的中尺度切变线是地面中尺度气旋形成的原因。展开更多
This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and wind...This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.展开更多
Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead...Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead times, as opera- tional forecasters begin to incorporate convective-scale fore- casts into severe weather forecast operations （Stensrud et al., 2009, 2013）. This would then provide vulnerable individuals and industries with more time to seek shelter and/or mitigate the impact of severe weather hazards.展开更多
文摘通过对2013年6月6日20时-7日20时北京地区出现的中到大雨、局地暴雨的天气过程的大尺度天气环流背景、物理量场、北京多普勒雷达产品和海淀风廓线探测数据、VDRAS反演物理量等多种资料详细分析,得出如下结论：1）本次过程500 h Pa北京处于从河套以东至长江中下游地区的低槽槽前,温度槽落后于高度槽,地面处于东高西低的形势场中。2）北京处于850 h Paθ（se）高能舌的前部,为对流性天气的出现提供了良好的能量条件。3）强回波在单点稳定少动或多个降水云团先后经过同一地区,造成该地区降水偏大。4）超低空急流加强,且风向由东南转为偏南,南风分量明显加大,有利于水汽的输送和辐合,有利于出现短时强降水。5）据VDRAS反演物理量场的分析,某地区较长时间处于扰动温度相对大值区（0.9-1.2℃）,与该区域降水较大相对应。强回波的合并与维持和其位于东南风和偏南风的辐合区中相关联。6）对EC、T639数值模式降水预报的检验表明,数值模式对明显大尺度系统影响的降水过程预报效果较好,EC对本次过程的预报能力优于T639。
文摘应用常规观测资料与地面加密自动站、卫星云图、多普勒雷达等多种非常规观测资料以及雷达变分同化分析系统(VDRAS)分析场资料,对2013年7月1日天津南部大暴雨中尺度对流系统的结构、演变特征及其成因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)大暴雨发生在副热带高压边缘暖湿气流、低空700—850 h Pa暖性切变线、高低空急流有利配置的背景下,属暖区暴雨。(2)大暴雨由若干β中尺度对流云团合并加强后的α中尺度对流云团造成,对应雷达,强降雨是由西南方向不断移入天津南部的γ中尺度对流单体发展加强,并先后组织成若干东—西向带状β中尺度对流系统先东北后偏东方向移动造成的,在大港南部有列车效应,具有典型的热带型降水回波特征。(3)逆风区的出现、中空急流向低层伸展,低空急流、超低空急流先后形成并加强,是降水强度加强的重要原因。(4)地面中尺度切变线的维持、加强和中尺度低压倒槽东移、发展、入海加强为中尺度气旋,是先后造成对流单体发展加强并组织成带状中尺度对流系统的两个中尺度系统。(5)近地层中尺度切变线是地面中尺度切变线形成的原因,对流单体前侧的偏南冷性水平出流的叠加,一方面增强了沿切变线的辐合,一方面也加大了低层的水汽输送;带状对流系统后侧的偏北冷性水平出流与东南气流形成的中尺度切变线是地面中尺度气旋形成的原因。
基金primarily supported by the National Fundamental Research 973 Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41275031,41322032 and 41475015)+1 种基金the Social Commonwealth Research Program(Grant Nos.GYHY201506004 and GYHY201006007)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Universities of China
文摘This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.
文摘Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead times, as opera- tional forecasters begin to incorporate convective-scale fore- casts into severe weather forecast operations （Stensrud et al., 2009, 2013）. This would then provide vulnerable individuals and industries with more time to seek shelter and/or mitigate the impact of severe weather hazards.
