Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY ...Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.展开更多
Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calcula...Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.展开更多
基金Project of the National Natural Sciences Foundation"Study on Trade,Investment and Industrial Relocation Based on Value Chain for the Belt and Road Initiative"(Approval No.71441039)
文摘Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.
基金under the research project "The Opening Policy and Industrial Upgrading in China:Theory,Empirics and Policy"(10JJD790009)sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China
文摘Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.
