Variability and Trends of Precipitation in Quelimane, Central Mozambique, and Their Relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.

Could the 2012 Drought in Central US Have Been Anticipated？-A Review of NASA Working Group Research

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record the NEWS （NASA （National Aeronautics and Space Administration） drought in the central United States conducted by members of Energy and Water cycle Study） Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Plains. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.