The sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） associated with the Victoria mode （VM） can persist into the following season and then influence climate variability in the tropical Pacific. This paper demonstrates th...The sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） associated with the Victoria mode （VM） can persist into the following season and then influence climate variability in the tropical Pacific. This paper demonstrates the connection between the preceding boreal winter VM and precipitation in the following spring over the southeastern United States （SE USA） and the Gulf of Mexico （GM）. The results indicate that a positive （negative） preceding winter VM is usually followed by increased （reduced） precipitation over the SE USA and GM during the following spring. The corresponding mechanism is similar, but slightly different to, the seasonal footprinting mechanism. For positive VM cases, the preceding-winter VM-related SSTAs appear to persist into the following spring via air- sea interactions, which then induce low-level convergence and vigorous ascending motion, leading to an adjustment of the zonal and meridional circulation. This adjustment can then influence the local Hadley cell by weakening the downward branch. These anomalous patterns of vertical airflow enhance spring precipitation over the SE USA and GM under suitable moisture conditions. Hence, this work demonstrates that the preceding-winter VM has the potential to regulate precipitation over the SE USA and GM in the following spring.展开更多
This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is str...This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–2008.The surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC periods.The interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c Oscillation.Our?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.展开更多
The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000.This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO.Moreover,the effects of extratropical ocean...The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000.This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO.Moreover,the effects of extratropical ocean variability on ENSO have increased during this period.To improve ENSO predictability,the authors investigate the influence of the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on ENSO during the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods,and find that the influence of the northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(NTA SST)on ENSO has significantly increased since 2000.Furthermore,there is a much earlier and stronger correlation between NTA SST and ENSO over the central-eastern Pacific during June-July-August in the post-2000 period compared with the pre-2000 period.The extratropical Pacific SST predictors for ENSO retain an approximate 10-month lead time after 2000.The authors use SST signals in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific to predict ENSO using a statistical prediction model.This results in a significant improvement in ENSO prediction skill and an obvious decrease in the spring predictability barrier phenomenon of ENSO.These results indicate that extratropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs can make substantial contributions to ENSO prediction,and can be used to enhance ENSO predictability after 2000.展开更多
基金the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest[grant number GYHY201506013]the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,grant number 2012CB955200]+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars[grant number 41522502]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41475037]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010303]
文摘The sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） associated with the Victoria mode （VM） can persist into the following season and then influence climate variability in the tropical Pacific. This paper demonstrates the connection between the preceding boreal winter VM and precipitation in the following spring over the southeastern United States （SE USA） and the Gulf of Mexico （GM）. The results indicate that a positive （negative） preceding winter VM is usually followed by increased （reduced） precipitation over the SE USA and GM during the following spring. The corresponding mechanism is similar, but slightly different to, the seasonal footprinting mechanism. For positive VM cases, the preceding-winter VM-related SSTAs appear to persist into the following spring via air- sea interactions, which then induce low-level convergence and vigorous ascending motion, leading to an adjustment of the zonal and meridional circulation. This adjustment can then influence the local Hadley cell by weakening the downward branch. These anomalous patterns of vertical airflow enhance spring precipitation over the SE USA and GM under suitable moisture conditions. Hence, this work demonstrates that the preceding-winter VM has the potential to regulate precipitation over the SE USA and GM in the following spring.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41790474]the National Program on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction[grant numbers GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-03]the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China [grant number 2015BAC03B07]
文摘This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–2008.The surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC periods.The interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c Oscillation.Our?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41975070]the Identification and mechanism study of global warming‘hiatus’phenomenon of 973 project of China[grant number 2016YFA0601801].
文摘The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000.This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO.Moreover,the effects of extratropical ocean variability on ENSO have increased during this period.To improve ENSO predictability,the authors investigate the influence of the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on ENSO during the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods,and find that the influence of the northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(NTA SST)on ENSO has significantly increased since 2000.Furthermore,there is a much earlier and stronger correlation between NTA SST and ENSO over the central-eastern Pacific during June-July-August in the post-2000 period compared with the pre-2000 period.The extratropical Pacific SST predictors for ENSO retain an approximate 10-month lead time after 2000.The authors use SST signals in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific to predict ENSO using a statistical prediction model.This results in a significant improvement in ENSO prediction skill and an obvious decrease in the spring predictability barrier phenomenon of ENSO.These results indicate that extratropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs can make substantial contributions to ENSO prediction,and can be used to enhance ENSO predictability after 2000.
