Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacity- demand-diagram method. The spectral displacement (Sd) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between Sd and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Assessing Vulnerability to Drought Based on Exposure,Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity:A Case Study in Middle Inner Mongolia of China

In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.

Geospatial Analysis of Flood Vulnerability Levels Based on Physical Characteristics and Resilience Capacity of Peri-Urban Settlements in Nigeria

Flooding is becoming a yearly reoccurring event in many communities and cities in Nigeria, leading to the destruction of properties and deaths;hence, we must take measures to either prepare for the impact or curb the occurrence. The study identified flood vulnerability levels of communities in Isoko North LGA based on physical environmental domains such as land use, elevation, and proximity to river channel (drainage) using geospatial techniques. Also, attributes that could contribute to the resilience capacity building of the communities were assessed. From the study, 73.93% of the entire area is moderately and highly vulnerable to flood, while among the communities, seventeen (17) are categorized as moderately vulnerable, and four (4) are lowly vulnerable. The overall resilience capacity of the communities indicated can build a substantial capacity towards community resilience (3.02, 0.06). However, there is a need to encourage collaboration with stakeholders to improve mitigation action and enhance various shortcomings toward resilience capacity building.

Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

斜拉桥易损性及极限承载力分析

以某独塔斜拉桥为研究对象,基于拉索的参数振动理论,计算分析了拉索的基频、拉索在单对断索损伤场景下的拉索应力传递系数和主梁应力安全系数;采用Pareto多目标评价方法,按结构最小损伤比例造成性能残余强度最小的优化原则,研究单对断索损伤场景下拉索的易损性,确定了易损的拉索次序和拉索对结构极限承载力的影响。分析结果表明:该斜拉桥外侧拉索更容易发生参数共振;单对拉索损伤场景下,易损拉索为主跨的Z6,Z8,Z9索;边跨单对拉索断裂对结构极限承载力影响在2%以内,主跨拉索Z6发生断裂使结构极限承载力降低14.5%。研究结果可为研究独塔斜拉桥拉索易损薄弱部位,桥梁健康监测的关键索号选取和提高结构安全性提供理论依据和参考。

Seismic vulnerability evaluation of axially loaded steel built-up laced members II:evaluations

The test results described in Part 1 of this paper （Lee and Bruneau, 2008） on twelve steel built-up laced members （BLMs） subjected to quasi-static loading are analyzed to provide better knowledge on their seismic behavior. Strength capacity of the BLM specimens is correlated with the strength predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. Assessments of hysteretic properties such as ductility capacity, energy dissipation capacity, and strength degradation after buckling of the specimen are performed. The compressive strength of BLMs is found to be relatively well predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. BLMs with smaller kl/r were ductile but failed to reach the target ductility of 3.0 before starting to fracture, while those with larger kl/r could meet the ductility demand in most cases. The normalized energy dissipation ratio, EC/ET and the normalized compressive strength degradation, Cr″/Cr of BLMs typically decrease as normalized displacements δ/δb,exp increase, and the ratios for specimens with larger kl/r dropped more rapidly than for specimens with smaller kl/r; similar trends were observed for the monolithic braces. The BLMs with a smaller slenderness ratio, kl/r, and width-to-thickness ratio, b/t, experienced a larger number of inelastic cycles than those with larger ratios.

Climate Change Induced Vulnerability of Smallholder Farmers: Agroecology-Based Analysis in the Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is also frequently identified as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The potential adverse effects of climate change on Ethiopia’s agricultural sector are a major concern, particularly given the country’s dependence on agricultural production, which is sensitive to climate change and variability. This problem calls the need to understand agroecology based vulnerability to climate change and variability to better adapt to climate risks and promote strategies for local communities so as to enhance food security. The objective of this study is to estimate and compare the level of vulnerability of smallholder farmers’ to climate change and variability from three agroecology representing Muger River sub-Basin of the upper Blue Nile basin using Livelihood Vulnerability Index. The research used quantitative and qualitative data collected through Focussed Group Discussions, key informant interviews and a questionnaire survey of 442 sampled households across three different agro-ecologies in the sub-basin. The results reveal that along with the different agro-ecological zone, households and communities experienced different degrees of climate vulnerability. These differences are largely explained by differences in exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. The livelihood vulnerability analysis reveals that Kolla agroecology exhibits relatively low adaptive capacity, higher sensitivity and higher exposure to climate change and variability that is deemed to be the most vulnerable agroecology. These contributing factors to a vulnerability in Kolla agroecology are largely influenced by assets, livelihood diversification, innovation, infrastructure, socio-demographic factors, social capital, agriculture, food security, and natural disasters and climate variability. The result furthermore shows that Dega agroecology has least vulnerable owing to its higher adaptive capacity. These results suggest that designing agroecology based resilience-building adaptation strategies is crucial to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change/variability in central rift valley,Ethiopia

Climate change/variability and environmental degradation have increased in the central rift valley of Ethiopia,which in turn making the people inhabiting in that ecosystem more vulnerable to the impacts.The purposes of this study were to assess the vulnerability of households andagro-ecosystems to climate change and environmental degradation and the factors determining vulnerabilities in the central rift valley,Ethiopia.Data were collected between November 2014 and May 2015 by interviewing 355 respondents.This has been supplemented with focus group discussions and key informant interviews.The indicator and matrix methods were used to describe socio-ecological vulnerabilities.The resultsshowed that about 9%of the respondents were highly vulnerable to climate change/variability,and environmental degradation.Households in the lowland have the largest proportion of high vulnerable households(60%),while households in highland have the largest proportion of low vulnerable households(30%).In the lowland agro-ecology,the adaptive capacity component has contributed the largest share to household's vulnerability index to the impacts of climate change/variability and environmental degradation.The sensitivity component has higer contribution in highland agro-ecology and the exposure component in the midland agro-ecology.There were variations of income deviation between agro-ecologies that lead to variation in vulnerability of households.Household vulnerability index has shown a very light negative correlation with livelihood diversification index.The poorest households with little share of the total income distribution and with low livelihood diversity index,were the most vulnerable.The results showed that the highest exposure index on ecosystem functions and agricultural performance were in the lowland agro-ecology.This study highlighted the need to assess the social and ecological vulnerabilities in integrated approach as singling out one from the other is difficult.That is,social vulnerability impacts ecological vulnerability and vice versa.

Characterizing Vulnerability of Crop-Based Rural Systems to Climate Change and Variability: Agro-Ecology Specific Empirical Evidence from the Dabus Watershed, North-West Ethiopia

Climate change is impacting climate sensitive rural livelihood systems. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecologies and these pose a challenge to climate resilient development strategy. This study assesses agro-ecology specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the Dabus Watershed (North-west Ethiopia), based on a survey of 734 farm households complemented with focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists across agro-ecologies in the study area, Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) is adapted to assess agro-ecology specific vulnerability in two local agro-ecologies, namely wet lowland and dry lowland. For each agro-ecology, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices as well as LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. The result shows that the dry lowland agro-ecology has a relatively higher exposure and sensitivity to climate stresses with a comparatively limited adaptive capability. On the other hand, the wet lowland agro-ecology exhibits intermediate vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and higher adaptive capacity. Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive LVI-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland. A higher adaptive capacity relative to exposure unveils a negative LVI-IPCC score for the wet lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in a moderate vulnerability category. In line with the findings, there is a need to set agro-ecology specific priorities for intervention that is most needed to cop up with the effects of climate variability and change in each agro-ecology. Climate risk exposure levels can be reduced through timely provision of climate specific information and early warning systems aimed at enhancing preparedness of farm households to extreme events. It is also crucial to expand availability of infrastructural facilities such as market, health services, and veterinary services so as to enhance adaptive capacity. Supporting alternative livelihood options and enhancing water harvesting practices for supplementary irrigation also call policy attention.

Can Integrated Water Resources Management Increase Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Adaptation? A Critical Review

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is now a global paradigm. While conceptions of IWRM principles vary between contexts, it primarily aims to ensure more coordinated management between different aspects of water issues such as water quality, land management and habitat protection. However, one increasingly significant cross-cutting management issue is climate change adaptation which presents multiple problems for IWRM approaches. This paper therefore seeks to gauge the extent to which IWRM principles can, and indeed are, enhancing the adaptive capacity of water management through reducing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of social-ecological systems. A review of research into vulnerability and resilience to date suggests that IWRM has significant potential for supporting some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity. However, despite IWRM being promoted as an attractive approach, our assessment argues that IWRM, as currently practiced, cannot readily enhance flexibility and adaptability, which is required for climate change adaptation. Normative recommendations for future policy are then provided.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities

Climate change is an inevitable trend,which challenges security of water resources in China,especially in cities.Assessing vulnerability of water resource to climate change in cities has important role for policy makers. The paper constructs a vulnerability function,including exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,according to the vulnerability concept proposed by IPCC,establishes an assessment indicators system of water resources to climate change in cities,and analyzes vulnerability features of Chinese cites based on 655 cities＇data in 2006.The vulnerability assessment results show that there are distinctive differences among all the cities,between east,central and west cities,between ordinary,big and mega cities,while there is no statistical significant difference between north and south cities.Based on the research,the paper suggests that strategic emphasis should focus on the central cities and ordinary cities

Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5°C by the 2050s (2036-2065) and 3.6°C to 4.8°C by the 2070s (2055-2085 results not presented), relative to the baseline period 1970-2000. The findings indicate that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity vary in magnitude, as well as spatially across the Water Towers. This is reflected in the spatially variable vulnerability index across the Water Towers. Overall vulnerability will increase in the water towers leading to erosion of the resilience of the exposed ecosystems and the communities that rely on ecosystem services these landscapes provide.

Rapid assessment for seismic vulnerability of low and medium rise infilled RC frame buildings

An indexing method for rapid evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of infi lled RC frame buildings in Jordan is proposed. The method aims at identifying low and medium rise residential buildings as safe or in need of further detailed evaluation. Following a rapid visual screening, the building is assigned a Basic Capacity Index(BCI); fi ve performance modifi ers are identifi ed and multiplied by the BCI to arrive at the Capacity Index(CI) of the building. A Capacity Index lower than a limit CI value indicates that the screened building could experience moderate earthquake damage whereas a higher value implies that minor damage, if any, would take place. To establish the basic evaluation parameters; forty RC frame buildings were selected, designed and analyzed using static nonlinear analysis and incorporating the effect of infi ll walls. Effects of seismicity, local site conditions, horizontal irregularities(setbacks and re-entrant corners), vertical irregularities(soft story at ground fl oor level) and overhangs on the seismic performance of local buildings were examined. Assessment forms were designed and used to evaluate and rank 112 sample buildings. About 40% of the surveyed buildings were found to be in need of detailed evaluation to better defi ne their seismic vulnerabilities.

Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors.Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones.We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014.Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale.Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability.This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions.This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations.We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.

Spatial Differentiation of Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda

The paper assessed the variation in the level of vulnerability to climate change among small holder farmers in the Kyoga plains of Uganda. It was hypothesized that there is no spatial variation in the level of vulnerability to climate change among the small holder farmers of different socioeconomic characteristics in the Kyoga plains. It improves the understanding of the different dimensions of vulnerability. This can help to design practical policies and intervention strategies that are specific to the communities’ spatial strata to reduce development imbalances and empower the most vulnerable small holder farmers. The conceptual framework is based on the three elements of vulnerability that is, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The cross-sectional survey research design was used to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Household data were acquired by using a structured questionnaire supported by focussed group discussions while meteorological data were collected using data base review. The study was done in the Kyoga plains agro ecological zone of Uganda comprising of several districts out of which Tororo and Pallisa were picked. Indicators for the components of vulnerability (Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity) were selected by Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Vulnerability Indices constructed at household level then aggregated at sub county level for correlation using ANOVA. Inter sub county vulnerability index correlation revealed a spatial variation in the level of vulnerability between the different sub counties with Kasodo Sub County in Pallisa being the most vulnerable and Rubongi in Tororo being the least vulnerable. Policy measures and development efforts should therefore focus on place specific strategies of adapting to climate change rather nationwide or region wide strategies. There is also need to refocus policy to nonfarm activities which are less susceptible to climate change and enhance farmers’ income.

Indicator Approach to Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Communities in Kenya: A Case Study of Kitui County

Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Rapu-Rapu and the West Coast of Albay Province, Philippines

Coastal vulnerability assessment using the Integrated Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (ICSEA-C-Change) tool provides a deeper understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on coastal zones. Vulnerability ratings were obtained using rubrics that were presented to the stakeholders during focused group discussions. Derived scores were then averaged and consolidated to come up with the overall vulnerability rating. These ratings were based on the resource and status of coastal habitats’ reliance on near-shore fishing and other quality measures like fisheries ecosystem dependency, population, and water quality of the coastal habitats in the barangays. Ratings resulted in identifying 12 barangays out of 23 that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as waves, storm surges, sea level rise, increase in surface temperature, and extreme rainfall. These are Buenavista and Basicao (Pioduran), Catburawan (Ligao), Tapel, Nagas and Maramba (Oas), Talin-Talin, Pantao, Macabugos, and Tambo (Libon) and Buhatan and Villa Hermosa (Rapu-Rapu). Assessment results were highly influenced by the absence of three major marine habitats, i.e., coral reefs, seagrass/seaweeds, and mangroves in the coastal areas. Likewise, 11 barangays out of 23, which were Marigondon and Malidong (Pioduran), Maonon and Cabarian (Ligao), Badian and Cagmanaba (Oas), Apud and Rawis (Libon), and Galicia, Hamorawon, and Poblacion (Rapu-Rapu) obtained moderate vulnerability scores. This was attributed to the presence of marine habitats that although in poor state, may serve their ecological functioning when properly protected. Highly vulnerable barangays must be prioritized in coastal rehabilitation and disaster risk reduction management planning. Parameters encompassing the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each barangay must be taken into consideration to reduce potential impacts brought by factors attributed to climate change. Vital information from the assessment will serve as basis for developing strategic plans for improving the climate change adaptation strategies of the local government units.

Gender Perspectives of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Descriptive Evidence from Farming Households at Ikpayongo Community in Gwer Lga, Benue State, Nigeria

Climate change impact and risks on agricultural livelihood affect women and men disproportionately and often to the disadvantage of women and girls. Consequently, this study assessed gender perspectives of vulnerability to climate change of farming households at Ikpayongo community in Gwer local government area, Benue State, Nigeria using descriptive approach. The study identified a total of 120 male-headed and female-headed farming households across four neighbourhoods and administered structured questionnaire on them using simple random sampling method, while data analysis was done using descriptive statistics. The results indicate lower education and income status among female-headed households, though male-headed households have high household size. Both sexes have relatively equal access to land for farming, however men have large farm size compared to women. The major crops cultivated by men were rice and yam, while women cultivated largely groundnut and cassava. Women are more exposed and sensitive to climate-related hazards such as floods and heat stress due to the location of their farms. The result further shows that males possess better adaptive capacity given their higher incomes, social networks and more access to training/capacity building programmes and credit facilities. The study concludes that female-headed farming households are more vulnerable to climate change and variability than male-headed farming households due to higher exposure and a lower adaptive capacity. Programme and policies to improve women access to credit facilities and relevant training to boost their adaptive capacity and build resilience are highly recommended. This would also limit exposure with attendant reduction in vulnerability.

Recovery Capacity of the Finance System of Italian Municipalities After the Currency Crisis of 1992

This paper is a first pioneering attempt to apply the concept of resilience to the analysis of the public finance systems of local governments, a concept already used and ＂abused＂ in various disciplines and fields of science. In particular, it proposes an attempt to estimate the recovery capacity of Italian Municipalities in a crucial period of our country＇s financial history, between 1992 and 2000, or between the currency crisis and the introduction of the Euro. However, the analysis also involved the subsequent trends, in order to demonstrate that the current vulnerability of the municipal public finance system, in particular of the Municipalities of Southern Italy, depends not only on the economic cycle but also on the continuous and incessant changes in the financing mechanisms of local governments established by the central government. The analysis showed a lower financial resilience of the Municipalities of the Mezzogiorno （island and continental） compared to those of the Center-North. The determinants of this phenomenon were found, for one part, through the analysis of the financial data of the Italian Municipalities - as presented by the SVIMEZ in its annual reports on the economy of the Mezzogiomo - and, for another part, through the critical synthesis of significant economic events which occurred during the period examined.

黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展耦合协调研究

在生态文明建设理念下,如何实现生态脆弱区资源环境与经济的协调发展,已成为我国亟待解决的问题之一。以典型生态脆弱区黄河“几”字弯都市圈21个地级市为例,基于2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年的资源环境与经济发展数据,运用熵权TOPSIS法分析资源环境承载力状况,并引入耦合协调度模型揭示资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征,结果表明:黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,区域差异显著;资源环境承载力与经济发展水平的耦合协调度整体逐渐趋向于更高程度的耦合;通过莫兰指数分析发现,黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调度为显著空间正相关。