A Windstorm Swept over Intellectual Capitalists

InSeptember1999.JiangQiping'snewbook,AWindstormSweptOverIntellectualCapitalists.,causedquiteastirwhenitfirstappearedinBeijing'sbookstores.Theideaofanintellectualcapitalist,althoughnotinventedbythisinstantbestselles,hasbecomeahottopicofdiscussionamong...

Integrated Model for Resilience Evaluation of Power-Gas Systems Under Windstorms

Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.

一次强下坡风爆发机制分析

应用地面观测站、ERA5再分析资料和高分辨率的WRF模式分析了一次美国博尔德(Boulder)的强下坡风事件,此次强下坡风暴爆发的机制是高空急流带断裂导致动量下传到背风坡山脚处。进一步分析表明,强下坡风的爆发与天气尺度系统高压脊过境及局地的背风坡重力波有关。在焚风的作用下,背风坡持续变暖导致重力波加强并转竖,侵蚀对流层顶的急流带,最终导致急流带断裂,高空动量下传至地面,强下坡风暴在背风坡爆发。

山东一次春季冷空气10级大风的天气成因

2020年3月18日中午至夜间,山西、河北、北京、天津和山东等地先后出现阵风10级及以上强风天气。利用风廓线雷达、国家级地面气象观测站和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)第五代大气再分析数据(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)等资料,对强风过程的天气学成因进行了分析。结果表明:强风发生在低空暖脊异常发展的热力环境条件下,冷锋自黄土高原下到华北平原,中层锋消,垂直方向上发生“断裂”,低层冷锋先行侵入热低压,在锋生过程中发生。强风具有显著的非地转瞬变特征,低层强冷平流是强变压梯度产生的主要因素,变压风叠加在快速移动的冷锋系统中诱发大风,变压风是重要组成部分;低空动量下传效应引起低层风速波动,但不足以直接诱发强风。

沙暴天气的云图特征分析

在研究我国沙暴分布特征的基础上，通过两次沙暴天气的对比分析，给出了沙暴天气的云图特征。

风暴潮洪水风险图制作研究

在对洪水灾害风险图进行研究和归纳的基础上,根据上海市的地形、沿海提防、洪涝灾害等特点,分析了上海市风暴潮洪水灾害的成因,以及这些因素与洪灾危险程度间的相关关系。借助模糊数学方法,求出危险程度隶属度。在地理信息系统平台上,采用多边形叠置分析和聚类分析等手段,研究洪水灾害危险程度区划的方法,进而绘制成洪水风险图。风险的评估采用了多指标综合评估方法,不仅计算了洪水的自然风险,同时考虑了防洪工程风险的影响。

沿海地区温室的风灾防御模式及自动测控的研究

华南沿海地区台风频繁 ,针对该地区温室大棚的特殊要求 ,对其环境自动测控系统中的大于 7级以上的风暴防御子系统进行了研究。用人工神经网络在自动测控系统中建立强风的识别模式 ,通过试验对识别模式进行检验。初步结果表明 ,该子系统能满足华南沿海地区温室的风灾防御要求 。

一次强下坡风暴及其空中湍流区的数值模拟

为了研究下坡风暴及其伴随的空中湍流区的基本特征,利用一个含地形的完全弹性强风暴数值模式,对1972年1月11日美国Bou lder强下坡风暴进行了数值模拟。模拟的结果表明,风场、位温场与实际的观测特征基本符合,另外对于伴随下坡风暴产生的能够引起飞机颠簸的空中湍流区,也能模拟出大致的范围和高度。

福建方形土楼屋盖结构的风灾损伤研究

分析了基于构件的计算福建土楼木屋盖结构损伤率的方法,建立了功能函数,并对用于功能函数的结构构件承载力进行了计算。最终得到了方形屋盖结构的损伤率。研究了瓦片掀翻和椽条破坏两种破坏形式下屋盖的损伤率,分析了风向角、高宽比、坡角等因素对损伤率的影响效应,通过数据拟合得到了方形土楼木屋盖在各种影响因素下的损失函数。可为土楼屋盖的抗风保护提供参考。

香蕉风灾保险的最优财政补贴规模测度——来自海南省681户蕉农的经验证据

【目的】探索条件价值评估最大支付意愿引导技术在中国香蕉风灾保险产品设计中的适用性,并为政策制定者调整和完善香蕉风灾保险财政补贴制度提供决策依据。【方法】基于海南省681户蕉农的实地调查,采用CVM调查中最适宜的问卷形式——二分式问卷格式,运用单边界、双边界二分式条件价值评估方法,较精确地测度出香蕉风灾保险的最优财政补贴规模。【结果】费率单边界问卷格式和双边界问卷格式估计平均最大支付意愿分别为19.25%、17.54%,其两问卷格式估计平均最大支付意愿的95%置信区间分别为18.77%～19.79%,16.89%～17.72%;财政补贴单边界问卷格式和双边界问卷格式估计平均最大支付意愿分别为26.38%、39.25%,其两问卷格式估计平均最大支付意愿的95%置信区间分别为25.70%～27.07%,38.94%～39.57%。【结论】与单边界问卷格式相比,双边界问卷格式能够获得被调查者支付意愿的更多信息,从而缩小了估计的置信区间,提高了最大支付意愿的估计精度;在连续3年的试点实践中,海南香蕉风灾保险试点规模占其香蕉种植面积不足10%,结合本研究结果,笔者认为海南省财政应在2007、2008连续两年30%的财政补贴基础上进一步加大对香蕉风灾保险业的补贴力度,力争补贴比例达到40%左右,同时费率也不宜过低,宜保持在18%左右。据此提出了促进政策性农业保险可持续发展的两大建议:构建财政支持政策性农业保险的长效机制和构建具有"适度强制性"的政策性农业保险制度。

海南农垦橡胶树风灾保险实践与理论分析

简述了海南农垦橡胶树风灾保险及其实践,从保险双方合作的约束条件、保险条款、理赔效果和胶工投保需求等方面分析存在的问题,提出改进优化风灾保险、提高风灾保险管理水平、提高风灾保险补贴的效能、加强与胶工的信息沟通等相应的对策。

清代后期湖南的虫灾、风灾、雹灾和冰冻雪灾

除水旱灾害之外,清代后期对湖南危害较大的灾种主要为虫灾,风灾、雹灾、冰冻雪灾偶有发生。本文对上述灾害的灾情进行了论述。

简洁中的从容——解读鲁迅短篇小说《风波》

鲁迅的小说在峻急的风格之外,还有一种随风润物的舒展文字。譬如《风波》,以简洁中的从容构成其叙述美学。这一叙述美学既构成了小说的形式美感,也传达出小说的丰富性和复杂性。《风波》的叙述美学是以鲁迅深厚的文字功力为基础的。

热带风暴对澳洲坚果产量的影响

报道了在湛江南亚热带作物研究所试种区，５个澳洲坚果品种１６年生树，前７年产量和风害情况。试种区风害频繁，产量水平较低。风害造成澳洲坚果减产。

海南香蕉风灾保险补贴效率分析

为提高财政资金使用效率,在新的保险条款背景下对海南香蕉风灾保险补贴效率进行研究。利用条件价值法获取海南省澄迈县、乐东县和东方市3个香蕉风灾保险试点地区蕉农对香蕉风灾保险的支付意愿,并运用福利经济学方法对政策性香蕉风灾保险补贴效率进行研究,分别测算补贴为0、20%、30%、40%、50%、60%、70%、80%和100%时的福利变化。研究结果表明:政府对香蕉风灾保险进行补贴符合效率原则,保费补贴达到100%时,澄迈县、乐东县和东方市的成本净福利倍数分别为0.34、0.17和0.22,与未补贴相比是有效率的;香蕉风灾保险补贴效率因区域和补贴率的不同而不同;香蕉风灾保险补贴效率与补贴率呈负相关关系。此外,基于研究结果提出提高香蕉风灾保险补贴效率的对策建议。

海南民营橡胶树风灾保险补贴效率研究

利用条件价值法获取海南省儋州市、琼中县和白沙县3个橡胶树风灾保险试点地区胶农对橡胶树风灾保险的支付意愿,并运用福利经济学分析方法研究了供给受限制条件下橡胶树风灾保险的保费补贴效率。研究结果显示:财政补贴橡胶树风灾保险符合效率原则;橡胶树风灾保险政府补贴效率因区域和补贴率的不同而不同;橡胶树风灾保险补贴效率与补贴率呈负相关关系。因此,提出提高海南民营橡胶树风灾保险补贴效率的对策建议:扩大民营橡胶树风灾保险覆盖面;加大橡胶树风灾保险宣传力度;加大橡胶树风灾指数保险的推广应用。

Specific oceanographic characteristics and phytoplankton responses influencing the primary production around the Ulleung Basin area in spring

The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fisheries in spring season.After episodic wind-driven events during the spring of 2017,horizontal and vertical profiles of physical chemical biological factors were investigated at 29 stations located in the Ulleung Basin area.In addition,growth responses of phytoplankton communities to nutrient additions were evaluated by bioassay experiments to understand the fluctuation of phytoplankton biomass.Because of strong northwestern wind,phytoplankton biomass was scattered and upwelling phenomenon might be suppressed in this season.The phytoplankton abundances in the coastal stations were significantly higher than offshore and island stations.In contrast,the nutrient and chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentrations and the phytoplankton biomass were quite low in all locations.Bacillariophyceae was dominated group(>75.1%for coastal,40.0%for offshore and 43.6%for island stations).In the algal bioassays,the phytoplankton production was stimulated by N availability.The in vivo Chl a values in the+N and+NP treatments were significantly higher than the values in the control and the+P treatments.Based on the field survey,the higher nutrients in coastal waters affected the growth of diatom assemblages,however,little prosperity of phytoplankton was observed in the offshore waters despite the injection of sufficient nutrients in bioassay experiments.The growth of phytoplankton depended on the initial cell density.All of results indicated that a dominant northwestern wind led to a limited nutrients condition at euphotic layers,and the low level of biomass supply from the coasts resulted in low primary production.Both supplying nutrients and introducing phytoplankton through the currents are critical to maintain the high productivity in the Ulleung Basin area of the East Sea.

Forest Disturbance Enhanced the Activity of Epedaphic Collembola in Windthrown Stands of the High Tatra Mountains

The study aimed to assess the response of ep- and hemiedaphic Collembola communities(activity, richness, community structure) to a disturbance, the subsequent management regime and to the season(summer, winter) in a High Tatra Mountains spruce forest destroyed by a windstorm.Fire and clear-cut resulted in an initial increase in the activity of Collembola inhabiting open areas,opportunistic or generalist species, while forest specialists diminished in numbers or disappeared.Our results indicated that treatment with nonextracted fallen trees(NEX) provided a better chance for forest species to survive compared with their survival in open habitats of extracted(EXT) and wildfire(FIR) treatments. Great species' potential of NEX treatment was indicated by Chao2 estimator and activity/species rarefaction curves. Communities of NEX treatment were more similar to the reference(REF) treatment, documented by ordination and cluster analyses. Thus, leaving fallen timber after a windthrow to natural process of succession is suitable for survival of forest species and maintenance of diversity in forests restoration than timber extraction.Community structure in wildfire(FIR) stands was the most dissimilar to the other treatments. Most of the species trapped in this treatment belonged to hemiedaphic life forms, while the activity of larger epedaphic species diminished. In contrast, the highest number of trapped Collembola in EXT treatment was connected with the larger-bodied epigeic species with fast dispersal ability. The trapping period affected both the number of individuals and species richness;Collembola activity and species diversity in the individual treatments were lower in winter compared with the summer period. Several species increased activity during the winter period, namely Folsomia penicula, Friesea mirabilis, F. truncata, Hypogastrura socialis and Protaphorura aurantiaca.

Forecasting Zonda Wind Occurrence with Vertical Sounding Data

Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.

环渤海的经济开发与减灾

渤海是一个自然灾害隐患严重的地区之一,为了使渤海建成一个经济繁荣、环境优美的海区,本文提出必须将渤海区位优势和经济环境条件与防御灾害结合,实现综合开发,提高我国北方开发潜力和综合国力,推动我国现代化进程。