The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization o...The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model theimpacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the otherwithout water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity datesoccurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperatureincrease. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minusrainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02%decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during thegrowing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yieldsremained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.展开更多
基金The paper is supported by the Open Research Fund of Laboratory for Climate Studies (CCSF-2005-2-QH06).
文摘The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model theimpacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the otherwithout water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity datesoccurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperatureincrease. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minusrainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02%decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during thegrowing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yieldsremained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.
