大气湍流对对流层内微波的传播具有重要影响,正确认识大气湍流的特性有助于提高电波传播模型预测的准确性和可靠性.本文利用天气数值预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式预测气象要素,计算微波波段大气折射率结构常数,研究...大气湍流对对流层内微波的传播具有重要影响,正确认识大气湍流的特性有助于提高电波传播模型预测的准确性和可靠性.本文利用天气数值预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式预测气象要素,计算微波波段大气折射率结构常数,研究对流层内大气湍流的时空分布特性,并探讨其与温度、相对湿度和修正大气折射率的变化关系.研究表明:近海面微波湍流强度具有明显的日变化特征;对流层内微波湍流的垂向结构具有较为明显的分层;大气环境出现逆温减湿现象,湍流活动较强.这些研究成果可为微波在大气环境中传播的准确预测提供理论支持.展开更多
介绍了宁夏C波段雷达快速循环同化技术及其在2018年夏季降水预报中的应用效果.快速循环同化技术主要基于天气研究预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,通过对C波段多普勒雷达资料进行去除奇异点、地物遮挡、谱宽检查、退模...介绍了宁夏C波段雷达快速循环同化技术及其在2018年夏季降水预报中的应用效果.快速循环同化技术主要基于天气研究预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,通过对C波段多普勒雷达资料进行去除奇异点、地物遮挡、谱宽检查、退模糊等质量控制,利用三维变分同化、动力降尺度及冷暖启动方法,实现了C波段多普勒天气雷达观测数据的逐小时快速循环同化分析,可逐时滚动输出未来12 h逐小时间隔、水平分辨率3 km的降水、气温、风向风速、相对湿度、物理量场等格点预报产品以及雷达回波产品.通过在2018年宁夏降水预报中的应用分析发现,加入雷达资料同化后的WRF模式降水预报能力有明显提升,可为宁夏降水天气智能网格预报特别是暴雨的短临预报预警提供技术支撑.展开更多
This study evaluates the impact of atmospheric observations from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observing system on numerical weather prediction of hurricane Ike (2008) using three-di...This study evaluates the impact of atmospheric observations from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observing system on numerical weather prediction of hurricane Ike (2008) using three-dimensional data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model (WRF 3D-Var). The TAMDAR data assimilation capability is added to WRF 3D-Var by incorporating the TAMDAR observation operator and corresponding observation processing procedure. Two 6-h cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted. Track and intensity forecasts are verified against the best track data from the National Hurricane Center. The results show that, on average, assimilating TAMDAR observations has a positive impact on the forecasts of hurricane Ike. The TAMDAR data assimilation reduces the track errors by about 30 km for 72-h forecasts. Improvements in intensity forecasts are also seen after four 6-h data assimilation cycles. Diagnostics show that assimilation of TAMDAR data improves subtropical ridge and steering flow in regions along Ike's track, resulting in better forecasts.展开更多
利用中尺度数值预报(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)模式,针对2018年3月17日05—17时(北京时)北京地区的一次降雪过程模拟分析了城市化对降雪的主要影响机制。结果表明,城市化使得北京五环以内降雪量减少,降雨量增加,这主要是由于...利用中尺度数值预报(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)模式,针对2018年3月17日05—17时(北京时)北京地区的一次降雪过程模拟分析了城市化对降雪的主要影响机制。结果表明,城市化使得北京五环以内降雪量减少,降雨量增加,这主要是由于城市化低层增温效应加强了雪的融化过程,产生混合型降水,距离市中心越近越容易发生混合型降水。城市化对降雪的总降水量和降水的时、空分布也存在一定的影响。降水初期,城市化造成的“城市干热岛”效应不利于水汽的水平和垂直输送,不利于云的形成,地面总降水量减小。随着降水过程的发展,部分冰相粒子融化,使近地面水汽增多,“城市热岛效应”的热力抬升作用有利于水汽的垂直输送和云的发展,部分云滴或水汽抬升进入云中,增强冷云过程,使雪和霰粒子含量增大,地面总降水量增加。城市化产生的“城市效应”对低层大气温度和云微物理过程产生影响,而云微物理过程的非绝热过程反过来又影响低层大气温度和大气层结,影响能量和水汽输送,进而对云和地面降水产生影响。展开更多
为了研究海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响,针对南海海域基于天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式开展了不同SST对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响研究.结果表明:精确的SST对低...为了研究海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响,针对南海海域基于天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式开展了不同SST对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响研究.结果表明:精确的SST对低空大气波导数值模拟影响最大,其次是更新周期;美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)提供的最优插值SST给出的大气波导模拟结果最好,正确率为68.2%,且波导底高平均误差和标准差最小,这是由于其模拟的相对湿度和气温变化较为准确,其次为气候预报再分析系统(climate forecast system reanalysis,CFSR)给出的SST方案较好;此外不同嵌套网格方式对大气波导数值模拟也有影响,在最优方案中子网格模拟的大气波导正确率和发生概率分别提高了11.8%和10.4%,虚报率降低了2.4%.该研究可为南海低空大气波导的精确预报提供技术支撑.展开更多
In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmenta...In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.展开更多
区域气候模式对高原降水模拟存在系统性高估。该文从热力学角度考虑了局地(小尺度)地形对陆气过程的影响,以提高区域气候模式高原降水模拟能力。通过在天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting, WRF)模式陆面过程模块耦合地形...区域气候模式对高原降水模拟存在系统性高估。该文从热力学角度考虑了局地(小尺度)地形对陆气过程的影响,以提高区域气候模式高原降水模拟能力。通过在天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting, WRF)模式陆面过程模块耦合地形热力效应方案,将二维地形太阳辐射方案改进为三维地形太阳辐射方案,根据山区太阳辐射理论对太阳辐射直射、辐射散射、地形反射过程进行改进,得到改进方案;基于改进方案在亚东河谷开展高分辨率WRF模式降水模拟研究。结果表明:采用改进方案模拟的太阳辐射、降水结果与实测结果更接近,能够降低河谷降水高估的现象。改进方案能够体现出更多地形变化对地表辐射分布的影响:日间,山体坡面由于接收更多辐射得到加热(0.09~0.20℃),产生上升气流,在坡面形成更强上坡风(0.02~0.08 m/s),将河谷水汽携带到坡面以上,水汽在坡面以上区域爬升并形成降水,导致河谷区域降水减少(-4.54~-3.34 mm)、坡面以上区域降水增多(0.59~2.82 mm)。该研究对提高区域气候模式对山区降水的模拟效果具有重要意义。展开更多
文摘大气湍流对对流层内微波的传播具有重要影响,正确认识大气湍流的特性有助于提高电波传播模型预测的准确性和可靠性.本文利用天气数值预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式预测气象要素,计算微波波段大气折射率结构常数,研究对流层内大气湍流的时空分布特性,并探讨其与温度、相对湿度和修正大气折射率的变化关系.研究表明:近海面微波湍流强度具有明显的日变化特征;对流层内微波湍流的垂向结构具有较为明显的分层;大气环境出现逆温减湿现象,湍流活动较强.这些研究成果可为微波在大气环境中传播的准确预测提供理论支持.
文摘介绍了宁夏C波段雷达快速循环同化技术及其在2018年夏季降水预报中的应用效果.快速循环同化技术主要基于天气研究预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,通过对C波段多普勒雷达资料进行去除奇异点、地物遮挡、谱宽检查、退模糊等质量控制,利用三维变分同化、动力降尺度及冷暖启动方法,实现了C波段多普勒天气雷达观测数据的逐小时快速循环同化分析,可逐时滚动输出未来12 h逐小时间隔、水平分辨率3 km的降水、气温、风向风速、相对湿度、物理量场等格点预报产品以及雷达回波产品.通过在2018年宁夏降水预报中的应用分析发现,加入雷达资料同化后的WRF模式降水预报能力有明显提升,可为宁夏降水天气智能网格预报特别是暴雨的短临预报预警提供技术支撑.
基金funded by the Air Dat projectThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation
文摘This study evaluates the impact of atmospheric observations from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observing system on numerical weather prediction of hurricane Ike (2008) using three-dimensional data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model (WRF 3D-Var). The TAMDAR data assimilation capability is added to WRF 3D-Var by incorporating the TAMDAR observation operator and corresponding observation processing procedure. Two 6-h cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted. Track and intensity forecasts are verified against the best track data from the National Hurricane Center. The results show that, on average, assimilating TAMDAR observations has a positive impact on the forecasts of hurricane Ike. The TAMDAR data assimilation reduces the track errors by about 30 km for 72-h forecasts. Improvements in intensity forecasts are also seen after four 6-h data assimilation cycles. Diagnostics show that assimilation of TAMDAR data improves subtropical ridge and steering flow in regions along Ike's track, resulting in better forecasts.
文摘利用中尺度数值预报(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)模式,针对2018年3月17日05—17时(北京时)北京地区的一次降雪过程模拟分析了城市化对降雪的主要影响机制。结果表明,城市化使得北京五环以内降雪量减少,降雨量增加,这主要是由于城市化低层增温效应加强了雪的融化过程,产生混合型降水,距离市中心越近越容易发生混合型降水。城市化对降雪的总降水量和降水的时、空分布也存在一定的影响。降水初期,城市化造成的“城市干热岛”效应不利于水汽的水平和垂直输送,不利于云的形成,地面总降水量减小。随着降水过程的发展,部分冰相粒子融化,使近地面水汽增多,“城市热岛效应”的热力抬升作用有利于水汽的垂直输送和云的发展,部分云滴或水汽抬升进入云中,增强冷云过程,使雪和霰粒子含量增大,地面总降水量增加。城市化产生的“城市效应”对低层大气温度和云微物理过程产生影响,而云微物理过程的非绝热过程反过来又影响低层大气温度和大气层结,影响能量和水汽输送,进而对云和地面降水产生影响。
文摘为了研究海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响,针对南海海域基于天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式开展了不同SST对低空大气波导数值模拟的影响研究.结果表明:精确的SST对低空大气波导数值模拟影响最大,其次是更新周期;美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)提供的最优插值SST给出的大气波导模拟结果最好,正确率为68.2%,且波导底高平均误差和标准差最小,这是由于其模拟的相对湿度和气温变化较为准确,其次为气候预报再分析系统(climate forecast system reanalysis,CFSR)给出的SST方案较好;此外不同嵌套网格方式对大气波导数值模拟也有影响,在最优方案中子网格模拟的大气波导正确率和发生概率分别提高了11.8%和10.4%,虚报率降低了2.4%.该研究可为南海低空大气波导的精确预报提供技术支撑.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant 2012CB955401)the"Strategic Priority Research Program"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant XDB03020600)
文摘In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.
文摘区域气候模式对高原降水模拟存在系统性高估。该文从热力学角度考虑了局地(小尺度)地形对陆气过程的影响,以提高区域气候模式高原降水模拟能力。通过在天气研究与预报(weather research and forecasting, WRF)模式陆面过程模块耦合地形热力效应方案,将二维地形太阳辐射方案改进为三维地形太阳辐射方案,根据山区太阳辐射理论对太阳辐射直射、辐射散射、地形反射过程进行改进,得到改进方案;基于改进方案在亚东河谷开展高分辨率WRF模式降水模拟研究。结果表明:采用改进方案模拟的太阳辐射、降水结果与实测结果更接近,能够降低河谷降水高估的现象。改进方案能够体现出更多地形变化对地表辐射分布的影响:日间,山体坡面由于接收更多辐射得到加热(0.09~0.20℃),产生上升气流,在坡面形成更强上坡风(0.02~0.08 m/s),将河谷水汽携带到坡面以上,水汽在坡面以上区域爬升并形成降水,导致河谷区域降水减少(-4.54~-3.34 mm)、坡面以上区域降水增多(0.59~2.82 mm)。该研究对提高区域气候模式对山区降水的模拟效果具有重要意义。
