Long-term variation of Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSW)and potential causes

Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the polar vortices,and stratospheric Planetary Waves(PWs)by analyzing and comparing their trends.Interestingly,within overall increasing trends,the duration and strength of SSWs exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after the winter of 2002,respectively.To reveal possible physical mechanisms driving these trends,we analyzed the long-term trends of the winter(from December to February)polar vortices and of stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1.Notably,our results show that in all three time periods(the entire period of 41winters,1980 to 2020,and the two subperiods—1980-2002 and 2002-2020)enhancing SSWs were always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices and strengthening polar PWs like Stationary Planetary Waves(SPWs)and 16-day waves,and vice versa.This is the first proof,based on ERA5 long-term trend data,that weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs(especially SPWs)could cause an increase in SSWs.

Analysis of gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the northern hemisphere

Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.

Verification of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in Northern Winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13

This study reports verification results of hindcast data of four systems in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction project for major stratospheric sudden warmings(MSSWs)in northern winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13.This report deals with average features across all MSSWs,and possible differences between two MSSW types(vortex displacement and split types).Results for the average features show that stratospheric forecast verifications,when further averaged among the four systems,are judged to be successful for lead times around 10 d or shorter.All systems are skillful for lead times around 5 d,whereas the results vary among the systems for longer lead times.A comparison between the MSSW types overall suggests larger forecast errors or lower skill for MSSWs of the vortex split type,although the differences do not have strong statistical significance for almost all cases.This limitation is likely to at least partly reflect the small sample size of the MSSWs available.

Wintertime Stratospheric Anomalies-Part II: Sudden Warmings

The process of stratospheric sudden warmings from development of planetary waves to.the sudden cooling after reversal of mean zonal circulation will be studied with the primitive equations of heat and momentum balances. It will be explained that the sudden warmings may occur only in the polar regions of winter stratosphere where zonal mean temperature decreases poleward. The heating rate in the order of major warmings is produced by developed planetary waves in the stratospheric breaking layers. The particular perturbation structure characterized by large amplitude of wave 1 together with minimum of wave 2 discovered by Labitzke (1977) is crucial for initiation of major warmings. The cooling by the same mechanism can be produced in the regions with reversed mean temperature gradient.

Ozone during Stratospheric Warmings at Uccle

The day-to-day variations in ozone content at Uccle (51°N) during some stratospheric warming events are examined. In particular, the attention is focused on the timing of commencement of ozone enhancement prior to peak day of warming and on the relationship in the ozone content between the upper and lower stratosphere. These two features are compared with the predictions of ozone transport models. There seems to be an agreement between model predictions and observed features in some cases.

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

Convection-Permitting Simulations of Current and Future Climates over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)region,also known as the“Asian water tower”,provides a vital water resource for downstream regions.Previous studies of water cycle changes over the TP have been conducted with climate models of coarse resolution in which deep convection must be parameterized.In this study,we present results from a first set of highresolution climate change simulations that permit convection at approximately 3.3-km grid spacing,with a focus on the TP,using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model(ICON).Two 12-year simulations were performed,consisting of a retrospective simulation(2008–20)with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis and a pseudoglobal warming projection driven by modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the monthly CMIP6 ensemble-mean climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The retrospective simulation shows overall good performance in capturing the seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature.Over the central and eastern TP,the average biases in precipitation(temperature)are less than−0.34 mm d−1(−1.1℃)throughout the year.The simulated biases over the TP are height-dependent.Cold(wet)biases are found in summer(winter)above 5500 m.The future climate simulation suggests that the TP will be wetter and warmer under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The general features of projected changes in ICON are comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble projection,but the added value from kilometer-scale modeling is evident in both precipitation and temperature projections over complex topographic regions.These ICON-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset to the community for the study of regional climate changes and impacts over the TP.

Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

Temperature trends and its elevation-dependent warming over the Qilian Mountains

Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.

Embryonic thermal manipulation:a potential strategy to mitigate heat stress in broiler chickens for sustainable poultry production

Due to high environmental temperatures and climate change, heat stress is a severe concern for poultry health and production, increasing the propensity for food insecurity. With climate change causing higher temperatures and erratic weather patterns in recent years, poultry are increasingly vulnerable to this environmental stressor. To mitigate heat stress, nutritional, genetic, and managerial strategies have been implemented with some success. However, these strategies did not adequately and sustainably reduce the heat stress. Therefore, it is crucial to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of heat stress on poultry, ensuring optimal production and promoting poultry well-being. Embryonic thermal manipulation(TM) involves manipulating the embryonic environment's temperature to enhance broilers' thermotolerance and growth performance. One of the most significant benefits of this approach is its cost-effectiveness and saving time associated with traditional management practices. Given its numerous advantages, embryonic TM is a promising strategy for enhancing broiler production and profitability in the poultry industry. TM increases the standard incubation temperature in the mid or late embryonic stage to induce epigenetic thermal adaption and embryonic metabolism. Therefore, this review aims to summarize the available literature and scientific evidence of the beneficial effect of pre-hatch thermal manipulation on broiler health and performance.

Potential reduction in carbon fixation capacity under climate change in a Pinus koraiensis forest

There has been an increasing recognition of the crucial role of forests, responsible for sequestering atmospheric CO_(2), as a moral imperative for mitigating the pace of climate change. The complexity of evaluating climate change impacts on forest carbon and water dynamics lies in the diverse acclimations of forests to changing environments. In this study, we assessed two of the most common acclimation traits, namely leaf area index and the maximum rate of carboxylation(V_(cmax)), to explore the potential acclimation pathways of Pinus koraiensis under climate change. We used a mechanistic and process-based ecohydrological model applied to a P. koraiensis forest in Mt. Taehwa, South Korea. We conducted numerical investigations into the impacts of(i) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5(SSP2-4.5) and 5–8.5(SSP5-8.5),(ii) elevated atmospheric CO_(2) and temperature, and(iii) acclimations of leaf area index and V_(cmax)on the carbon and water dynamics of P. koraiensis. We found that there was a reduction in net primary productivity(NPP) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, but not under SSP5-8.5, compared to the baseline, due to an imbalance between increases in atmospheric CO_(2) and temperature. A decrease in leaf area index and an increase in V_(cmax)of P. koraiensis were expected if acclimations were made to reduce its leaf temperature. Under such acclimation pathways, it would be expected that the well-known CO_(2) fertilizer effects on NPP would be attenuated.

Old Pinus massoniana forests benefit more from recent rapid warming in humid subtropical areas of central-southern China

Trees progress through various growth stages,each marked by specific responses and adaptation strate-gies to environmental conditions.Despite the importance of age-related growth responses on overall forest health and management policies,limited knowledge exists regarding age-related effects on dendroclimatic relationships in key subtropical tree species.In this study,we employed a den-drochronological method to examine the impact of rapid warming on growth dynamics and climatic sensitivity of young(40–60 years)and old(100–180 years)Pinus mas-soniana forests across six sites in central-southern China.The normalized log basal area increment of trees in both age groups increased significantly following rapid warming in 1984.Trees in young forests further showed a distinct growth decline during a prolonged severe drought(2004–2013),whereas those in old forests maintained growth increases.Tree growth was more strongly influenced by temperature than by moisture,particularly in old forests.Spring tem-peratures strongly and positively impacted the growth of old trees but had a weaker effect on young ones.Old forests had a significantly lower resistance to extreme drought but faster recovery compared to young forests.The“divergence problem”was more pronounced in younger forests due to their heightened sensitivity to warming-induced drought and heat stress.With ongoing warming,young forests also may initially experience a growth decline due to their heightened sensitivity to winter drought.Our findings underscore the importance of considering age-dependent changes in forest/tree growth response to warming in subtropical forest man-agement,particularly in the context of achieving“Carbon Peak&Carbon Neutrality”goals in China.

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

Emerging glacier forelands alter carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau

The critical challenge of ongoing climate warming is resulting in glacier melting globally,a process accompanied by the formation of substantial glacier forelands.This phenomenon emerges as a pivotal area of study,especially in the Tibetan Plateau(TP),known as the Third Pole and the Asian Water Tower.In particular,the rapid retreat of temperate glaciers in the southeastern TP has led to the formation of expansive glacier forelands.These forelands are not merely evidence of climate shifts but are also key areas for transformative carbon dynamics.Moreover,the newly exposed land surface actively adjusts the balance of dissolved organic carbon,especially in meltwater,and influences the release of greenhouse gases from a range of sources including glacial lakes,subglacial sediments,and supraglacial/proglacial rivers.These processes play a crucial role in the dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide.Drawing from our intensive and detailed observations over several years,this perspective not only emphasizes the importance of the underexplored impact of glacier forelands on carbon cycles but also opens a window into understanding potential future trajectories in a warming world.

Advances in ice avalanches on the Tibetan Plateau

As some of the greatest natural disasters in the cryosphere,ice avalanches(IAs)seriously threaten lives and cause catastrophic damage to the resource environment,but a comprehensive overview of the state of knowledge on IAs remains lacking.We summarized 63 IAs on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)since the 20th century,of which,over 20 IAs occurred after the 21st century.The distributions of IAs are mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern TP,and the occurrence time of IAs is mostly concentrated from July to September.We highlight recent advances in mechanical properties and genetic mechanisms of IAs and emphasize that temperature,rainfall,and seismicity are the inducing factors.The failure modes of IAs are summarized into 6 categories by examples:slip pulling type,slip toppling type,slip breaking type,water level collapse type,cave roof collapse type,and wedge failure type.Finally,we deliver recommendations concerning the risk assessment and prediction of IAs.The results provide important scientific value for addressing climate change and resisting glacier-related hazards.

Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate

Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.

Climate warming is significantly influenced by rising summer maximum temperatures:insights from tree-ring evidence of the Western Tianshan Mountains,China

As one of the regions most affected by global climate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced several ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Mountains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(Tmax6-8) variations from 1718 to2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed Tmax6-8.Over the past 300 years,the Tmax6-8reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal variabilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18 ℃/decade) after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The Tmax6-8variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that climate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mechanisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.