Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Assessment on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on the Cosine Vector Included Angle

[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight.

Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Measurement and assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Henan Province, China

As demands on limited water resources intensify, concerns are being raised about water resources carrying capacity（WRCC）, which is defined as the maximum sustainable socioeconomic scale that can be supported by available water resources and while maintaining defined environmental conditions. This paper proposes a distributed quantitative model for WRCC, based on the principles of optimization, and considering hydro-economic interaction, water supply, water quality, and socioeconomic development constraints. With the model, the WRCCs of 60 subregions in Henan Province were determined for different development periods. The results showed that the water resources carrying level of Henan Province was suitably loaded in 2010, but that the province would be mildly overloaded in 2030 with respect to the socioeconomic development planning goals. The restricting factors for WRCC included the available water resources, the increasing rate of GDP, the urbanization ratio, the irrigation water utilization coefficient, the industrial water recycling rate, and the wastewater reuse rate, of which the available water resources was the most crucial factor. Because these factors varied temporally and spatially, the trends in predicted WRCC were inconsistent across different subregions and periods.

Evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong peninsula, China

Research on the carrying capacity and security of water resources is vital for its contribution to implementing sustainable development goals. The limitation of water resources is one of the most important factors that influence the sustainable utilization of resources. Studying the carrying capacity of water resources will not only facilitate monitoring and forecast of national resources and environmental carrying capacity, but also be valuable for building ecological civilization. According to the principles of evaluation system, the carrying capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is explored. A comprehensive evaluation model of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed based on the carrying capacity of water resources index and the composite of water resources index. The results show that the capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is generally consistent with overexploitation, and that the development and utilization of water resources has reached a considerable scale under existing economic and technological conditions. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region is relatively small, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is alarming. Relative countermeasures are put forward, to improve the water resources carrying capacity and to provide a basis for future sustainable development and utilization of water resources in this region.

The concept, connotation and method of representation of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC）

Based on the relationship between water environment system and human society, water environment carrying capacity （WECC） probes into supporting ability of complex water environment system to the human society. Recent years, due to the shortage of water resources and serious water pollution in several watersheds in China, the research of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC） becomes very important. The conception, connotation and method of representation of WWECC are discussed deeply in this paper. It shows that WWECC is a kind of index that instructs whether the water environment system in watershed can continue to support the development of social economy and ecology, it is dimensionless number.

Carrying capacity of water environment in public tourism resources based on matter-element model

When water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction is studied, the two action subjects of tourists and local residents should be discussed, and comprehensive consideration must be given to the influence of these two on water environment. On the basis of water resource carrying capacity and water quality carrying capacity, water environmental carrying capacity index of public resource tourist attraction was constructed, the model for the water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction was established on the basis of matter-element model and analytical hierarchy process. By applying this method, water environmental carrying capacity situation of a certain public resource tourist attraction can be gained, moreover, situations about several aspects of water environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated.

Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert,China

The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Gonghe basin based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Gonghe Basin belongs to arid and semi-arid climatic zone, where water resource is relatively scarce and desertification is serious, so it is necessary to find out water resources carrying capacity. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the assessment on water resources carrying capacity in Gonghe Basin was conducted: Water resource carrying capacity of Gonghe County is less, while that of Guinan County and Chaka Town of Wulan County are greater; water resources of Gonghe Basin could sustain cultivated land of 652.6 thousand acres and grassland of 2 368.6 thousand acres respectively in 2020, water resources of Gonghe Basin could sustain cultivated land of 948.2 thousand acres and grassland of 2 247.6 thousand acres respectively in 2030.

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Changchun-Jilin Region

Based on such principles as sustainable development and ecological cycle, this paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity(WCC) of Changchun-Jilin region using a population-economy-water resources correlation evaluation model built on the basis of WCC evaluation method as elaborated in the methodology of Functional Zoning of Population Development. Results show that the annual WCC of Changchun-Jilin region is able to support the population there, as a basic balance is struck between population and water resources. The incorporation of WCC into overall urban planning is one of the building blocks for sustainable city development with an advisable size.

Safety Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Five Cities in Ningxia Based on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources

[Objectives]To make safety evaluation of water environment carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia based on ecological footprint of water resources.[Methods]With the help of the grey relational model,15 indicators were selected from the natural,economic,and social aspects,and the most influential factors in the three fields were selected.Based on the concept of ecological priority,the water resources carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia from 2010 to 2019 was calculated with the help of the water resources ecological footprint model.Then,the indicators of the water resources ecological footprint model were coupled with the existing indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation indicator system.Finally,the changes of the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia were analyzed with the help of the principal component analysis(PCA).[Results]The ecological pressure of water resources and the ecological deficit of water resources in the five cities were relatively large.Specifically,Yinchuan City had the most obvious deficit of water resources but good carrying capacity;Zhongwei City had a large ecological deficit of water resources,poor carrying capacity,and the largest ecological pressure index of water resources;Guyuan City had low water resources ecological deficit,water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological pressure index.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the coupling indicator system,it can be seen that the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities is in an upward trend,indicating that the water environment in each region tends to become better.

Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin in 2005-2015,based on DSPERM framework model and simulated annealing-projection pursuit model

With the intensi fed impact of human activities,most lakes have been severely disturbed and the lake ecosystem has been seriously damaged,which exerted a great impact on the living envi-ronment of human beings in the lake basins.The health of the lake ecosystem has gradually become one of the hot issues in recent years.In this study,the water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)was used to reveal the chain rel ationship between human activities and water environ-ment in the economic dewelopment of the Dianchi Lake Basin in Kunming City of China during 2005-2015.Specifically,we chose 25 ewaluation indicators related to the water environment and socialeconomic activities,classified them into six subsystems,Le,the driwing force subsystem(D),the water resources si tuation and consumption subsystem(S),the water resources pressure subsystem(P),the water environmental situation subsystem(E),the response subsystem(R),and the management subsystem(M),and built a comprehensive assessment system-DSPERM frame-work model.Si mulated annealing-projection pursuit model which reflects the structure or feature of high-dimensional data was adopted to calculate the WRCC of the Dianchi Lake Basin during 2005-2015 by weighting each evaluation indicator and each subsystem of the DSPERM frame work model.The resuls show that the WRCC of the Dlanchi Lake Basin was in level II(medium carying capacity)from 2005 to 2012.Since 2013,the WRCC has been at level II(strong carying capacity),and from 2005 to 2015,it showed a gradual upward trend.The evaluation indicators of each subsystem varied greatly and exhibited different development trends.The indicators of the water resources pressure subsystem had the greatest impact on the WRCC,followed by the in-dicators of the water environmental si tuation subsystem and the water resources situation and consumption subsystem.We recommend that the DSPERM framework model and the simulated anneal ing-projection pursuit model constructed in this work can be used to analyze the dynamic changes of the WRCC over the years.They have the advantages of practicability and feasibilty,and can provide the basis for the scienti fic decision-making and comprehensive management of regional water environment planning.

Water Environment Carrying Capacity of New Zhengdong District in Zhengzhou City

Taking sections of the Dongfeng Canal, the Xionger River and the Wei River in New Zhengdong District for example, this paper applied water environment capacity to analyze the carrying capacity of surface water environment in the east development zone of the city. The analysis shows that carrying capacity of surface water environment in the study area is not good, carrying capacity of 3 studied waters for TP, BOD_5 and COD is approaching to the limit. New Zhengdong District, in terms of industrial structure, should promote the projects with less water consumption, less or no discharge of wastewater, and also should enhance the sewage treatment, improve recycling rate of the reclaimed water, and reduce the negative impact of sewage and pollutant discharge on environment.

Integrated Coastal Management Dynamic Models:A Case Study of Development Seaweed Cultivation in the Waters Luwu and Palopo Regency Bone Bay,South Sulawesi

Waters carrying capacity in seaweed of Eucheuma cottonii cultures should be a concern for optimum seaweed culture.Carrying capacity can determine by Ecological Footprint(EF)analysis,which in this research use footprint production,and mas balance nitrate analysis.This research on Mei 2015(1st transitional season)and September 2015(2nd transitional season)in Luwu and Palopo,South Sulawesi.Map and land use analyzed with geographic information systems(GIS).The results showed that the Ecological Footprint production(EFP)in Luwu waters is 67,88 ton/capita/year,or equivalent to 235.823,93 tons/year.Based on the analysis of the availability of water for seaweed is 38.374,69 hectares,it can produce seaweed(biocapacity)for 922.928,96 tons/year and the number of farmers that allows for use the waters is 13.595 capita.The Ecological Footprint production(EFp)in Palopo waters is 3,08 ton/capita/year,or equivalent to 4.589,99 tons/year.Water availability analysis is 979,82 hectares are able to produce seaweed(biocapacity)for10.115,34 ton/year and the number of farmers that allows for use the waters is 3.276 capita.Based on the four scenario simulation management results of the development seaweed cultivation Eucheuma cottonii in Luwu and Luwu Regency is based on the present waste input,pressing inputs of waste into the waters of 10%,25%and 50%yield different waters biocapacity.The results comparison between biocapacity and Ecological Footprint,ecological status for Luwu and Palopo waters are still in sustainable use.Based on those simulation results showed that in second scenario by pressing the waste input by 10%from the existing waste input,as well as assuming the availability of water utilizing the entire area of 38.374,69 hectares continuously(on the years scale of 2008-2030),it will produce the highest biocapacity waters in the amount of 8.257.274,94 tons/year.So with the management of seaweed in Palopo with second scenario,assuming the availability of water utilizing the entire area of 979,82 hectares will produce the highest waters biocapacity of 14.306,92 tons/year.

Integrated Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tongzhou District,Beijing City

目前,通州区已被定为北京市的新的发展中心,但水资源短缺和污染已经严重限制了当地的可持续发展。本文以可持续发展为原则,基于"自然—社会"水循环,提出了通州区水资源综合承载力量化模型。根据通州区的未来发展规划,设计了3种情景来提高该地区的水资源综合承载力。研究表明水资源短缺严重制约了通州区的城市化进程和可持续发展,外调水、本地区节水和控制污染是解决通州区水资源短缺的有效途径。

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative Countries based on Virtual Water Theory

Most countries along the route of the"Belt and Road"initiative are faced with a shortage of water resources.However,successful implementation of the initiative depends on water availability to support economic and social development.We designed a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system,assigned grades and weights to each evaluation index and calculated a water resources carrying index for the 65 countries along the route.We used virtual water theory to analyze China's net virtual water import from key bulk agricultural products through international trade.For more than half of the countries along the route,their water resources will be unable to support the economic development that will be necessary for fulfilling the goals of the Initiative.As a country with insufficient water resources carrying capacity,China is a net virtual water importer in the virtual water trade.This virtual water trade can improve China's water resources support capacity,and ensure China's water and food security for the future.

Assessment of Geological Security and Integrated Assessment Geo-environmental Suitability in Worst-hit Areas in Wenchuan Quake

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas （12 counties）. The integrated assessment shows that： （1） located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; （2） the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; （3） geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3 %, 9.3% and 9.3 % of the evaluated area respectively; （4） geo-environmentai suitability is poor in the evaluated area, in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.

基于水资源承载力的中亚水资源可持续利用评价

Situated in the hinterland of Eurasia,Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and sparse rainfall.The uneven spatial distribution of water and land resources across the region has pressured economic and social development.An accurate understanding of Central Asia’s water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is vital for enhancing the sustainability of water resources utilization and guiding regional economic and social activities.This study aims to facilitate the sustainability of water resources utilization by evaluating the region’s WRCC from the viewpoints of economic and technological conditions and social welfare.A concise yet effective model with relatively fewer parameters was established by adopting water resources data from the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)and socioeconomic data from the World Bank.The results indicated that the WRCC of all five Central Asian countries showed an increasing trend with improved water use efficiency from 1995 to 2020.Kazakhstan’s WRCC was significantly higher than the other four countries,reaching 54.03 million people in 2020.The water resources carrying index(WRCI)of the five Central Asian countries varied considerably,with the actual population sizes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan highly overloaded.Although there has been a decrease in Central Asian countries’WRCI between 1995 and 2020,water resources utilization problems in the region remain prominent.Based on the water resources carrying capacity evaluation system,to increase available water resources and improve production water use efficiency are key to address these issues.In light of this,this study offers practical and feasible solutions at the policy level:(1)The implementation of signed multilateral agreements on transboundary water resources allocation must proceed through joint governmental efforts.(2)Investments in advancing science and technology need to be increased to improve water use efficiency in irrigation systems.(3)The output of water-intensive crops should be reduced.(4)The industrial structure could be further optimized so that non-agricultural uses are the primary drivers of gross domestic product(GDP)growth.