Artificial Intelligence Technique in Hydrological Forecasts Supporting for Water Resources Management of a Large River Basin in Vietnam

Hydrological forecasting plays an important role in water resource management, supporting socio-economic development and managing water-related risks in river basins. There are many flow forecasting techniques that have been developed several centuries ago, ranging from physical models, physics-based models, conceptual models, and data-driven models. Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an advanced technique applied as an effective data-driven model in hydrological forecasting. The main advantage of these models is that they give results with compatible accuracy, and require short computation time, thus increasing forecasting time and reducing human and financial effort. This study evaluates the applicability of machine learning and deep learning in Hanoi water level forecasting where it is controlled for flood management and water supply in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Accordingly, SANN (machine learning algorithm) and LSTM (deep learning algorithm) were tested and compared with a Physics-Based Model (PBM) for the Red River Delta. The results show that SANN and LSTM give high accuracy. The R-squared coefficient is greater than 0.8, the mean squared error (MSE) is less than 20 cm, the correlation coefficient of the forecast hydrology is greater than 0.9 and the level of assurance of the forecast plan ranges from 80% to 90% in both cases. In addition, the calculation time is much reduced compared to the requirement of PBM, which is its limitation in hydrological forecasting for large river basins such as the Red River in Vietnam. Therefore, SANN and LSTM are expected to help increase lead time, thereby supporting water resource management for sustainable development and management of water-related risks in the Red River Delta.

Maintaining healthy rivers and lakes through water diversion from Yangtze River to Taihu Lake in Taihu Basin

On the basis of the Taihu water resources assessment, an analysis of the importance and rationality of the water diversion from the Yangtz,e River to Taihu Lake in solving the water problem and establishing a harmonious eco-environment in the Taihu Basin is performed. The water quantity and water quality conjunctive dispatching ＇decisi＂ofi-makifig support system, which ensures flood control, water supply and eco-aimed dispatching, is built by combining the water diversion with flood control dispatching and strengthening water resources monitoring and forecasting. With the practice and effect assessment, measures such as setting the -integrated basin management format, further developing water diversion and improving the hydraulic engineering projects system and water monitoring system are proposed in order to maintain healthy rivers and guarantee the development of the economy and society in the Taihu Basin.

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,China

This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing （ITSP）. The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro- vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of watershed, where three scenarios with different water re- sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri- culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock- breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.

SWOT Analysis and Challenges of Nile Basin Initiative:An Integrated Water Resource Management Perspective

River Nile is one of the longest transboundery rivers and it is shared and used by Burundi,Democratic Republic of Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania and Uganda.As of today,the Nile is a crucial resource for the economic development of the Nile Basin countries and a vital source of livelihood for 160 million inhabitants as well as 300 million people living in the 10 riparian countries.The Nile Basin Initiative(NBI) is one of the international cooperative river basin management program and regional partnership where all the Nile Basin countries except Eritrea unite to pursue long-term sustainable development,improved land use practices and management.This review therefore focused on the challenges not faced on NBI in terms of integrated use of the river and conducted analysis of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats(SWOT) based on secondary data.The result of the review revealed that for decades,the Nile Basin people have been facing many complex environmental,social,economic and political challenges that have made it difficult for the proper management and sustainability of Nile water.The initiative provides training to develop skills in government ministries,non-governmental organizations and local communities in each country.It is also working to raise awareness of critical environmental issues by strengthening networks of environmental education practitioners;developing curriculum in the education sector.The challenges of NBI include the involvement and funding of World Bank,lack of sufficient staff,procedural and policies conflicts,lack of coordination and linkage with other regional institutions and lack of recognition as river basin organization.Considering the complex nature of the project,it is recommended that the NBI should come up with a strong multi-disciplinary monitoring and evaluation team to follow up all implemented projects.The NBI should carry out participatory land use planning in communities along the river basin.Moreover,livelihood analysis should be carried out especially in communities along the Nile to come up with poverty eradication projects which are socially acceptable,applicable,economically viable and affordable.

Spatial matching and flow in supply and demand of water provision services: A case study in Xiangjiang River Basin

Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.

Water accounting for conjunctive groundwater and surface water irrigation sources: A case study in the middle Heihe River Basin of arid northwestern China

Oases in arid northwestern China play a significant role in the region＇s economic stability and development. Overex- ploitation of the region＇s water resources has led to serious environmental consequences. In oases, irrigated agriculture is the primary consumer of water, but water shortages resulting from dramatically growing human needs have become a bottleneck for regional sustainable development, making effective management of the limited available water critical. Effective strategies must be formulated to increase agricultural productivity while reducing its environmental impacts. To support the development of such strategies, water use patterns were analyzed during the 2007 and 2008 growing seasons, from May to early October, to identify opportunities for improving water management using the Mold- en-Sakthivadivel water-accounting method, which combines groundwater and surface water into a single domain and can provide a good estimate of the uses, depletion, and productivity of water in a water basin context. The study area lies in Linze County, Gansu Province, China. In the study area, the inflow water resources consist of irrigation, precipita- tion, and soil water, which accounted for 89.3%, 8.9%, and 1.8% of the total in 2007, and 89.3%, 4.8%, and 5.9% in 2008, respectively. The irrigation depends heavily on groundwater, which accounted for 82.1% and 83.6% of the total irrigation water in 2007 and 2008, respectively. In 2007 and 2008, deep percolation accounted for 50.1% and 47.9% of the water outflow, respectively, with corresponding depleted fractions of 0.51 and 0.55, respectively. For the irrigation district as a whole, the water productivity was only 1.37 CNY/m^3. To significantly increase crop water productivity and prevent depletion of the region＇s groundwater aquifer, it will be necessary to reduce the amount of water used for ir- rigation. Several water-saving agricultural practices are discussed and recommended.

Improving Water Quantity and Quality Supply Security by Managed Artificial Recharge Technologies in the Lower Llobregat Aquifers Integrated into a Conjunctive Surface and Groundwater Management Scheme for Barcelona,Spain

The large concentration of human population,industry and services in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona has to confront scarce water resources,serious seasonal and inter-annual variations and quality deficiencies in the sources.A large fraction of these water resources are in the medium-size Llobregat River basin and the remaining ones correspond to a surface water transfer,seawater desalination and wastewater reclamation.Groundwater dominated water resources availability before 1950.Afterwards,water supply has evolved progressively to integrated water resources management,which includes serious water quality concerns to deal with population density,river pollution,seawater intrusion in the main aquifer,and brine generation in the mid Llobregat basin due to old mining of saline minerals.The role of the alluvial aquifers has progressively evolved from being the main water source to reserve storage to cope with seasonal and drought water resources availability.River-enhanced recharge and artificial recharge are needed to assure enough groundwater storage before surface water becomes scarce and/or suffers a serious temporal loss of quality.Enhanced river recharge started in 1950.Treated river water injection in dual-purpose wells was put into operation in the early 1970s.Basin and pond recharge was added later,as well as a deep well injection barrier along the coast to reduce seawater intrusion and to allow increased groundwater abstraction in moments of water scarcity.There is a progressive evolution from solving water quantity problems to consideration of water quality improvement during recharge,with attention to emergent concern pollutants in river water and in reclaimed water to be considered for artificial recharge.Improvement of artificial recharge operation activities has been introduced and research is being carried out on the difficult behavior to degrade organic pollutants during infiltration and in the terrain.This paper presents the different activities carried out and presents the research activities,and comments on the economic,social and administrative issues involved as well.

黄河流域水资源超载地区和短缺地区的判定与动态管理

黄河流域水资源短缺,而能源富集,工业用水需求强劲,水资源开发利用率高达80%,如何协调生态保护和高质量发展的关系,实现对水资源超载地区、短缺地区的动态管理,至关重要。在分析水资源承载能力的概念定义和内涵发展的基础上,总结了水资源超载地区和短缺地区的定义和判定标准,对黄河流域九省(自治区)进行了综合研判,并从水资源刚性约束、水资源监测和管控策略等方面提出了水资源动态管理的关键措施,以期为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略的水安全保障提供决策参考。

长江水资源调配推演器构建与推演分析

长江水资源调配推演器(CJGWAS)由中国长江三峡集团有限公司、中国水利水电科学研究院联合研发,实现长江流域水库工程“点”、河流及调水工程“线”、地市单元“面”、流域综合“体”的“点—线—面—体”一体化水资源科学模拟与开发利用分析。推演器融合水文模型、配置模型、水库调配模型、需水预测等算法,可对长江流域历史、现状进行复盘,并对未来状况进行推演。研究成果可为长江流域水网规划、重大引调水工程评估、断面生态流量及发电冲击预判等提供支撑。

新时期长江流域水资源保护规划及管理工作的思考

组织编制并实施水资源保护规划是国家赋予水行政主管部门的法定职责,也是水利部门履行水资源管理和生态环境保护责任的重要工作。长江流域水资源保护规划经历了从起步、探索、实践与发展到形成完善体系的过程,推进了流域水资源保护与管理科学有序发展。随着国家机构改革部门职能调整和《中华人民共和国长江保护法》出台,为更好地推进和落实新时期长江流域水资源保护规划和管理工作,系统梳理长江流域水资源保护规划发展历程与成效,分析当前流域水资源保护面临的形势与挑战,厘清流域水资源保护工作定位和思路,并据此提出新时期流域水资源保护规划及管理的工作建议,对凝聚流域水资源保护规划共识、建立流域水资源保护规划体系、推进水资源保护高质量发展、助力实现治江现代化具有重要的指导意义。

海河流域治水精神在新时代水土保持工作中的应用

海河流域是我国七大流域之一,在长期的治水实践中,海河流域形成了独具特色的治水文化,孕育了催人奋进的治水精神。在新时代水土保持工作中,正确看待和理解治水精神,用治水精神指导当前水土保持工作,并在此基础上培育形成新时代的治水精神具有重要意义。通过系统梳理海河流域治水精神及其内涵,分析海河流域治水精神具有人民性、实践性、时代性、民族性和科学性5个共同特征,并从大力弘扬“根治海河”精神、牢固树立以人民为中心的思想、建立顶层思维、充分认识水土保持工作的长期性和艰巨性、加强科学研究、加大水土保持精神的宣传教育力度6个方面对新时代水土保持工作提出了建议。

典型河湖治理经验及对长江流域生态保护的启示

为做好长江生态环境修复保护工作,选取欧洲莱茵河、英国泰晤士河、韩国清溪川和美国奥基乔比湖4个具有典型特征的河湖作为案例,整理和归纳了这4个河湖的污染治理过程与对应的政治、经济、金融、法律相关的治理措施。针对长江流域生态治理中存在的同类问题,总结了这4个河湖在跨区域协同治理、跨部门统筹管理、健全法律体系、加强公众参与和商业运营等方面的经验,提出建立跨区域共同协商的流域水污染管理体制、强化不同部门之间的统筹管理机制、完善流域统一的环境保护法律体系、公共参与等措施和建议。研究成果可为协同长江的保护与发展、进一步提升长江流域的水生态环境质量提供参考。

长江流域重要饮用水水源地保护长效机制

指导重要饮用水水源地保护是《中华人民共和国水法》《中华人民共和国长江保护法》和“三定”规定赋予水行政主管部门的法定职责,也是维系流域供水安全保障的底线。通过对长江流域重要饮用水水源地保护管理现状的回顾分析,针对保护管理中存在的水源地名录准入退出机制不健全、安全评估制度不完善、资金投入保障机制不足等问题,提出了完善水源地安全保障规划体系、规范水源地名录管理机制、强化水源地安全评估和保护、严格水源地保护考核等长效机制构建思路和后续工作建议。研究成果对于落实《中华人民共和国水法》《中华人民共和国长江保护法》饮用水水源地保护要求、贯彻长江经济带绿色发展和长江大保护建设的要求、推动长江流域重要饮用水水源地保护长效机制建设具有重要意义。

黄河流域强制性用水定额研究与思考

严格用水定额管理,从根本上抑制不合理用水需求,是当前缓解黄河流域水资源短缺问题的首要任务。强制性用水定额管理是《中华人民共和国黄河保护法》确立的一项基本制度,其核心目标是促进节约用水,强化节水监管,推进新阶段黄河流域节水工作高质量发展。在分析黄河流域现行用水定额管理的基础上,探讨了黄河流域强制性用水定额适用的行业范围,分析了相关法律法规要求,提出了开展强制性用水定额管理的建议,以期为黄河流域强制性用水定额管理制度的落实落地提供参考。

黄河流域生态治理与生态经济协同发展模式研究进展

为了给黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略的实施及乡村振兴等提供科技支撑,对多年来黄河流域生态治理与生态经济协同发展的研究成果、关键技术及典型模式进行系统归纳,分析了当前存在的突出问题,并提出了相应的对策建议。黄河流域生态治理与生态经济协同发展模式是随着水土保持工作不断发展和生态文明建设、乡村振兴等多项国家战略的实施而逐步建立和不断丰富完善的,多年来黄河流域各地区针对严重的水土流失探索了多种生态治理与生态经济协同发展模式,包括水土保持-地貌-生态经济高适配生态经济型综合治理模式、水土保持型生态农业经济模式、风沙区水土保持-生态经济融合发展模式、砒砂岩区生态治理-衍生产业协同发展模式、半干旱区乡村能源生态型良性循环模式、黄土高塬水土保持型生态经济带治理模式等。当前存在的突出问题有:生态治理-生态经济协同发展的理念薄弱,二者的协同性不高且耦合协调的空间不均衡,发展模式结构单一、规模效益不高等。建议:创新生态治理-生态经济协同发展的理论与关键技术;建立多元化投入机制,创建以高质量发展为目标的新型生态治理与经济协同发展模式及其生产与产业体系,探索“全托全链”的推广机制;构建适宜的技术体系、产业体系、经营体系和人才支撑体系;建立生态治理与生态经济协同发展先行试验示范县,引领和优化区域现代生态治理与经济的协同发展。

韩江流域河湖生态流量保障管理研究

河湖生态流量事关水生态文明建设大局,受到政府相关管理部门、工程管理部门以及公众的高度关注。河流自然条件不同,管理水平也有差异,需要深入细致的研究,因地制宜、因水施策,切实加强各河流生态流量的保障措施。对韩江流域河湖生态流量保障管理现状进行了调查研究,韩江流域已经明确了主要控制断面的生态流量目标,开展了生态流量调度,也有相应的生态流量监测预警体系和管理机制。韩江流域河湖生态流量保障管理工作尚处于起步阶段,在当前水利部大力推进复苏河湖生态环境的背景下,在控制断面布设密度、敏感期生态流量确定、流域生态流量科学研究等方面需要加强。

长江流域重要饮用水水源地生态隔离带建设体系研究

指导饮用水水源地保护工作是《长江保护法》、国务院机构改革方案赋予新时期水行政主管部门的重要职责与使命。《长江经济带发展规划纲要》明确提出“建设沿江、沿河、环湖水资源保护带和生态隔离带,增强水源涵养和水土保持能力”。在流域饮用水水源地现状梳理基础上,分析长江流域饮用水水源地生态隔离防护建设存在的布局不合理、系统性差、监督管控措施不到位等问题,以长江流域302重要饮用水水源地为重点,提出饮用水水源地生态隔离带的构建思路。依此为基础,构建了包含陆域隔离防护带建设、滨水缓冲带建设、水域净化带建设3个层次的生态隔离带建设布局,提出了生态隔离带建设格局、内容和措施要求。研究成果对贯彻落实《长江经济带发展规划纲要》《长江保护法》水源地保护要求,全面实施长江流域饮用水水源地生态隔离带建设、强化流域管理治理具有重要指导意义。

突发水污染事件风险分析——以引江济淮工程(河南段)为例

从交通事故风险、污水排入风险以及其他风险等方面识别引江济淮工程(河南段)突发水污染事件的风险源,建立适应性的风险评价指标体系、指标等级划分标准和风险等级评价模型,综合评估7个评价河段突发水污染事件风险等级。结果表明:2个评价河段的风险等级为重大(Ⅱ级),5个评价河段的风险等级为较大(Ⅲ级)。从降低风险源危险性、提高风险控制有效性等方面提出突发水污染事件风险管控对策措施。本研究为降低引江济淮工程(河南段)突发水污染事件的发生概率和危害程度提供了支撑,对发挥工程综合效益、保障受水区供水安全、维护良好的水生态环境具有重要意义。

蚌埠市区水资源规范化管理建设经验总结

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