Evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong peninsula, China

Research on the carrying capacity and security of water resources is vital for its contribution to implementing sustainable development goals. The limitation of water resources is one of the most important factors that influence the sustainable utilization of resources. Studying the carrying capacity of water resources will not only facilitate monitoring and forecast of national resources and environmental carrying capacity, but also be valuable for building ecological civilization. According to the principles of evaluation system, the carrying capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is explored. A comprehensive evaluation model of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed based on the carrying capacity of water resources index and the composite of water resources index. The results show that the capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is generally consistent with overexploitation, and that the development and utilization of water resources has reached a considerable scale under existing economic and technological conditions. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region is relatively small, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is alarming. Relative countermeasures are put forward, to improve the water resources carrying capacity and to provide a basis for future sustainable development and utilization of water resources in this region.

基于水资源承载力的中亚水资源可持续利用评价

Situated in the hinterland of Eurasia,Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and sparse rainfall.The uneven spatial distribution of water and land resources across the region has pressured economic and social development.An accurate understanding of Central Asia’s water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is vital for enhancing the sustainability of water resources utilization and guiding regional economic and social activities.This study aims to facilitate the sustainability of water resources utilization by evaluating the region’s WRCC from the viewpoints of economic and technological conditions and social welfare.A concise yet effective model with relatively fewer parameters was established by adopting water resources data from the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)and socioeconomic data from the World Bank.The results indicated that the WRCC of all five Central Asian countries showed an increasing trend with improved water use efficiency from 1995 to 2020.Kazakhstan’s WRCC was significantly higher than the other four countries,reaching 54.03 million people in 2020.The water resources carrying index(WRCI)of the five Central Asian countries varied considerably,with the actual population sizes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan highly overloaded.Although there has been a decrease in Central Asian countries’WRCI between 1995 and 2020,water resources utilization problems in the region remain prominent.Based on the water resources carrying capacity evaluation system,to increase available water resources and improve production water use efficiency are key to address these issues.In light of this,this study offers practical and feasible solutions at the policy level:(1)The implementation of signed multilateral agreements on transboundary water resources allocation must proceed through joint governmental efforts.(2)Investments in advancing science and technology need to be increased to improve water use efficiency in irrigation systems.(3)The output of water-intensive crops should be reduced.(4)The industrial structure could be further optimized so that non-agricultural uses are the primary drivers of gross domestic product(GDP)growth.