Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk leve...Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.展开更多
According to China’s second national survey of pollution sources, the contribution of agricultural non-point sources(ANS) to water pollution is still high. Risk prevention and control are the main means to control co...According to China’s second national survey of pollution sources, the contribution of agricultural non-point sources(ANS) to water pollution is still high. Risk prevention and control are the main means to control costs and improve the efficiency of ANS, but most studies directly take pollution load as the risk standard, leading to a considerable misjudgment of the actual pollution risk. To objectively reflect the risk of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP) in Chongqing, China, we investigated the influences of initial source input, intermediate transformation, and terminal absorption of pollutants via literature research and the Delphi method and built a PTA(pressure kinetic energy, transformation kinetic energy, and absorption kinetic energy) model that covers 12 factors, with the support of geographical information system(GIS) technology. The terrain factor calculation results and the calculation results of other factors were optimized by Python tools to reduce human error and workload. Via centroid migration analysis and Kernel density analysis, the risk level, spatial aggregation degree, and key prevention and control regions could be accurately determined. There was a positive correlation between the water quality of the rivers in Chongqing and the risk assessment results of different periods, indirectly reflecting the reliability of the assessment results by the proposed model. There was an obvious tendency for the low-risk regions transforming into high-risk regions. The proportion of high-risk regions and extremely high-risk regions increased from 17.82% and 16.63%in 2000 to 18.10% and 16.76% in 2015, respectively. And the risk level in the main urban areas was significantly higher than that in the southeastern and northeastern areas of Chongqing. The centroids of all grades of risky areas presented a successive distribution from west to east, and the centroids of high-risk and extremely high-risk regions shifted eastward. From 2000 to 2015, the centroids of highrisk and extremely high-risk regions moved 4.63 km(1.68°) and 4.48 km(12.08°) east by north, respectively. The kernel density analysis results showed that the high-risk regions were mainly concentrated in the main urban areas and that the distribution of agglomeration areas overall displayed a transition trend from contiguous distribution to decentralized concentration. The risk levels of the regions with a high proportion of cultivated land and artificial surface were significantly increased, and the occupation of cultivated land in the process of urbanization promoted the movement of the centroids of high-risk and extremely high-risk regions. The identification of key areas for risk prevention and control provides data scientific basis for the development of prevention and control strategies.展开更多
Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved ...Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.展开更多
文摘Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Department of Heilongjiang Province (GC06C10302 S8)the grant of Harbin Science and Technology Bureau (2007RFXXS029)the graduate innovative research projects in Heilongjiang Province (YJSCX2009-258HLJ)
基金Under the auspices of the Chongqing Science and Technology Commission(No.cstc2018jxjl20012,cstc2018jszx-zdyfxm X0021,cstc2019jscx-gksb X0103)。
文摘According to China’s second national survey of pollution sources, the contribution of agricultural non-point sources(ANS) to water pollution is still high. Risk prevention and control are the main means to control costs and improve the efficiency of ANS, but most studies directly take pollution load as the risk standard, leading to a considerable misjudgment of the actual pollution risk. To objectively reflect the risk of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP) in Chongqing, China, we investigated the influences of initial source input, intermediate transformation, and terminal absorption of pollutants via literature research and the Delphi method and built a PTA(pressure kinetic energy, transformation kinetic energy, and absorption kinetic energy) model that covers 12 factors, with the support of geographical information system(GIS) technology. The terrain factor calculation results and the calculation results of other factors were optimized by Python tools to reduce human error and workload. Via centroid migration analysis and Kernel density analysis, the risk level, spatial aggregation degree, and key prevention and control regions could be accurately determined. There was a positive correlation between the water quality of the rivers in Chongqing and the risk assessment results of different periods, indirectly reflecting the reliability of the assessment results by the proposed model. There was an obvious tendency for the low-risk regions transforming into high-risk regions. The proportion of high-risk regions and extremely high-risk regions increased from 17.82% and 16.63%in 2000 to 18.10% and 16.76% in 2015, respectively. And the risk level in the main urban areas was significantly higher than that in the southeastern and northeastern areas of Chongqing. The centroids of all grades of risky areas presented a successive distribution from west to east, and the centroids of high-risk and extremely high-risk regions shifted eastward. From 2000 to 2015, the centroids of highrisk and extremely high-risk regions moved 4.63 km(1.68°) and 4.48 km(12.08°) east by north, respectively. The kernel density analysis results showed that the high-risk regions were mainly concentrated in the main urban areas and that the distribution of agglomeration areas overall displayed a transition trend from contiguous distribution to decentralized concentration. The risk levels of the regions with a high proportion of cultivated land and artificial surface were significantly increased, and the occupation of cultivated land in the process of urbanization promoted the movement of the centroids of high-risk and extremely high-risk regions. The identification of key areas for risk prevention and control provides data scientific basis for the development of prevention and control strategies.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41305125 No.U 1203281 National Basic Research Pro gram of China （973 Program）, No.2010CB951003
文摘Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.
