Based on the conventional high-and low-altitude and surface observation data,the weather analysis and diagnosis methods were applied to analyze the cold wave process of Ulanqab in January 2016 from the aspects of weat...Based on the conventional high-and low-altitude and surface observation data,the weather analysis and diagnosis methods were applied to analyze the cold wave process of Ulanqab in January 2016 from the aspects of weather reality,circulation background,weather causes,and forecast test.The results show that strong cold air accumulated gradually near Lake Baikal and Central Siberia,affecting the city in a northwest path.During the cold wave process,the transverse trough moved southwards slowly at 500 hPa,and the ground cold high pressure was strong and stable.The cold air continued to move southwards,resulting in the strong cold wave and gale weather with a large impact range and long duration.The high-altitude jet at 300 hPa strengthened the cold wave pile,which was conducive to the outbreak of the cold wave.The intensity and location changes of the 500 hPa positive vorticity center,850 hPa cold advection region and 24-h ground pressure variation well showed the intensity of the cold wave process and the variation of the affected region.The influence of strong cold advection,ground positive pressure variation,and strong vertical wind shear were the main reasons for a strong drop in temperature and gale weather in this process.The test results of prediction reveal that the forecast value of the maximum temperature were relatively lower than the actual value,while the forecast of the minimum temperature was more accurate.The three warning signals were issued timely and accurately.The circulation pattern predicted by numerical models was more accurate in the early stage of the process,but there was an error in the late stage,and the forecast system moved slower than the actual situation.展开更多
文摘Based on the conventional high-and low-altitude and surface observation data,the weather analysis and diagnosis methods were applied to analyze the cold wave process of Ulanqab in January 2016 from the aspects of weather reality,circulation background,weather causes,and forecast test.The results show that strong cold air accumulated gradually near Lake Baikal and Central Siberia,affecting the city in a northwest path.During the cold wave process,the transverse trough moved southwards slowly at 500 hPa,and the ground cold high pressure was strong and stable.The cold air continued to move southwards,resulting in the strong cold wave and gale weather with a large impact range and long duration.The high-altitude jet at 300 hPa strengthened the cold wave pile,which was conducive to the outbreak of the cold wave.The intensity and location changes of the 500 hPa positive vorticity center,850 hPa cold advection region and 24-h ground pressure variation well showed the intensity of the cold wave process and the variation of the affected region.The influence of strong cold advection,ground positive pressure variation,and strong vertical wind shear were the main reasons for a strong drop in temperature and gale weather in this process.The test results of prediction reveal that the forecast value of the maximum temperature were relatively lower than the actual value,while the forecast of the minimum temperature was more accurate.The three warning signals were issued timely and accurately.The circulation pattern predicted by numerical models was more accurate in the early stage of the process,but there was an error in the late stage,and the forecast system moved slower than the actual situation.
