Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preced...Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.展开更多
A uniquely shaped impact structure,the Hailin impact crater,has been discovered in northeast China.The crater was formed on a granodiorite hillside and is an oval depression with asymmetric rim height and a maximum di...A uniquely shaped impact structure,the Hailin impact crater,has been discovered in northeast China.The crater was formed on a granodiorite hillside and is an oval depression with asymmetric rim height and a maximum diameter of 1360 m.The bottom of the crater is filled by Quaternary sediments with large amounts of rock fragments underneath.The discovery of quartz planar deformation features in rock clasts on the crater floor provides diagnostic evidence for the impact origin of the structure.The shape of the crater is largely due to the impact having occurred on a ridge terrain.The impact event probably occurred in the late Cenozoic Era.The Hailin impact crater is the fourth confirmed Chinese impact crater.展开更多
LAST year saw a robust increase in international visits to China due to the expansion of its visa-free policy,improvement in payment services,resumption of multiple direct flights,and construction of new infrastructur...LAST year saw a robust increase in international visits to China due to the expansion of its visa-free policy,improvement in payment services,resumption of multiple direct flights,and construction of new infrastructure.As China is opening up wider to the world,more foreign tourists are flocking to the country.As a means of cultural exchange,tourism allows people to experience first-hand the openness,inclusiveness,safety,stability,and prosperity of China.This in the end helps the country to build up its international image and soft power.展开更多
Investigating the ecological impact of land use change in the context of the construction of national water network project is crucial,as it is imperative for achieving the sustainable development goals of the nationa...Investigating the ecological impact of land use change in the context of the construction of national water network project is crucial,as it is imperative for achieving the sustainable development goals of the national water network and guaranteeing regional ecological stability.Using the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area(DRA),China as the study area,this paper first examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of natural landscape patterns and ecosystem service values(ESV)in the DRA from 2000 to 2018 and then investigated the spatial clustering characteristics of the ESV using spatial statistical analysis tools.Finally,the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model was used to simulate the natural landscape and future changes in the ESV of the DRA from 2018 to 2028 under four different development scenarios:business as usual(BAU),economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP),and shoreline protection(SP).The results show that:during 2000-2018,the construction of water facilities had a significant impact on regional land use/land cover(LULC)change,with a 24830 ha increase in watershed area.ESV exhibited an increasing trend,with a significant and growing spatial clustering effect.The transformation of farmland to water bodies led to accelerated ESV growth,while the transformation of forest land to farmland led to a decrease in the ESV.Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)had the strongest effect on the ESV.ESV exhibited a continuous increase from 2018 to 2028 under all the simulation scenarios.The EP scenario had the greatest increase in ESV,while the ED scenario had the smallest increase.The findings suggest that projected land use patterns under different scenarios have varied impacts on ecosystem services(ESs)and that the management and planning of the DRA should balance social,economic,ecological,and security benefits.nomic,ecological,and security benefits.展开更多
Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target.However,current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of the...Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target.However,current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of their economic benefits.This study integrates a warming-labour productivity model with a typical integrated assessment model using shared socioeconomic pathways.It simulates China's economic development and carbon emission levels under both baseline and carbon-neutral policy scenarios,evaluating the economic costs and benefits of emission reduction policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.These findings reveal the following:(1)The economic costs of emission reduction policies are projected to peak between 2050 and 2060,ranging from 0.41%to 9.37%of total GDP in the baseline scenario,primarily due to increased energy prices and R&D investments.These costs are expected to decline rapidly after 2070.(2)China's carbon-neutral policies will mitigate global warming,with the economic benefits of mitigation projected to reach 5.65%to 17.24%of China's total GDP by 2100.(3)Lowcarbon scenarios SSP1 and SSP4 could significantly reduce initial economic costs and advance the onset of net economic gains to 2060.This integrated assessment confirms that China's carbon neutrality target offers substantial net economic benefits in the long term.To minimize initial economic costs,efforts should focus on enhancing consumption-side transitions,upgrading lowcarbon technologies,and adopting new energy sources.展开更多
In the era of the digital economy,digital trade has demonstrated strong vitality,becoming a crucial driving force for the highquality development of national and regional economies.However,understanding the resilience...In the era of the digital economy,digital trade has demonstrated strong vitality,becoming a crucial driving force for the highquality development of national and regional economies.However,understanding the resilience of digital trade in the face of external crises is an important topic.Taking the backdrop of Sino-US trade friction,this paper constructs a resilience index system for digital trade.It utilizes entropy method,kernel density estimation,and ArcGIS mapping to calculate and visually analyze the resilience of China’s digital trade from 2017 to 2021.Additionally,a Tobit model is constructed to explore the main influencing factors of digital trade resilience patterns.The research findings indicate:1)temporally,during the period of Sino-US trade friction,China’s digital trade resilience shows an overall upward trend,but there are regional differences in resilience levels across the country,with a severe polarization phenomenon.2)Spatially,high resilience is observed in the eastern and central regions of China,while the western and northeastern regions exhibit low resilience.3)From a dimensional perspective,the resistance of digital trade resilience displays a spatial distribution of high values in the east and low values in the west.The recovery force is aggregated along coastal areas,and the renewal force tends to aggregate along the eastern coastline.4)Factors such as economic scale,industrial structure,urbanization rate,government fiscal expenditure,and technological talents significantly promote the enhancement of digital trade resilience.This study reveals the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of digital trade resilience in responding to external shocks,providing theoretical basis and policy suggestions for enhancing digital trade resilience,and promoting high-quality economic development in China.展开更多
The onset of the big mantle wedge(BMW)structure beneath the North China Craton remains debated.Research on the genesis of Late Mesozoic granites associated with gold deposits in the Jiaodong Peninsula above the BMW co...The onset of the big mantle wedge(BMW)structure beneath the North China Craton remains debated.Research on the genesis of Late Mesozoic granites associated with gold deposits in the Jiaodong Peninsula above the BMW could provide fresh insights into this question.The monzogranite from the Zhaoxian-Shaling gold district was intruded during 154-148 Ma.This I-type granite has high-K calc-alkaline and metaluminous characteristics.The monzogranite formed at medium temperatures(718-770℃)and was generated in a thickened lower crust at depths within the stability field of garnet.The monzogranite’s high zircon Ce^(4+)/Ce^(3+)and Eu_(N)/Eu_(N)^(*)values and low FeOT/MgO ratios,suggest that it formed in a high oxygen environment.Its variableε_(Hf)(t)values with T_(DM2)of 1.93-2.87 Ga imply that it originated from the melting of ancient crust basement,with contributions from mantle-derived materials.The granite’s enrichment in LREEs and LILEs,and depletion in HREEs and HFSEs,along with its trace element tectonic discrimination diagrams and medium Sr/Y,indicate an adakite affinity in an active continental margin setting.The transition from S-type granites to I-type granites and finally to A-type granites observed in the eastern part of North China Craton suggests a shift in the tectonic environment from compression to extension.This change is also reflected in the transition from flat subduction to steep subduction.Therefore,the monzogranite was formed in a tectonic transition setting triggered by a change in the subduction angle of the PaleoPacific Ocean slab during the Late Jurassic.This event may have marked the initiation of the BMW above the North China Craton.展开更多
Environmental inequality is a prevalent issue in developing countries undergoing urban expansion.Urban expansion induces the formation and evolution of environmental inequality by creating environmental and structural...Environmental inequality is a prevalent issue in developing countries undergoing urban expansion.Urban expansion induces the formation and evolution of environmental inequality by creating environmental and structural conditions that lead to the spatial relocation of environmental hazards and the socio-spatial segregation of different groups in developing countries.This study investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of environmental inequality under urban expansion in Guangzhou,a megacity in China.It considered how environmental disparities and socio-demographic attributes interact in terms of industrial pollution exposure using additive semiparametric quantile regression,combined with spatial visualisation,on the basis of the economic and population census data from 1990 to 2020.This study revealed that urban expansion sparked the spatial displacement of environmental risks and the social-spatial differentiation,exposing the peripheral regions and disadvantaged groups to higher environmental risks.A reciprocal transformation occurred between central and peripheral regions,as well as a process of redistributing environmental risks across social space.In the context of urban expansion in developing countries,the causes of environmental inequality shifted from individual socio-economic differences to structural factors,such as industrial layout and social division of labour in cities,leading to the spatial displacement and concealment of environmental inequality.This study provides insights and guidance for policymakers to address the issue of environmental inequality in the context of urban expansion.展开更多
The origin of the biota of Hainan Island,China,remains a fundamental scientific problem.Comparative studies on the biota,geological tectonics,and paleomagnetism proposed that during the Eocene,Hainan Island connected ...The origin of the biota of Hainan Island,China,remains a fundamental scientific problem.Comparative studies on the biota,geological tectonics,and paleomagnetism proposed that during the Eocene,Hainan Island connected Vietnam and Guangxi,and then moved to the southeast to reach its present location.This review mainly discusses its biota origin from molecular phylogeny and palaeobotanical research.The formation and evolution of the biological groups of Hainan Island were identified via research on their genomes,phylogeny,and molecular biogeography.This research showed that the genera and species that appeared and diverged early in their evolution(i.e.,before the Miocene)can be explained by the land connection between Hainan Island,Vietnam,and Guangxi during the Eocene-Oligocene.According to Southeast Asian tectonic theory,in the Middle Miocene(at about 15 million years ago),Hainan Island had moved to its present position.The population and genetic divergence of species with late divergence times(after 15 Ma)can be reasonably explained by the close proximity(or land connection)between Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula,enabling genetic communication between Hainan Island and the Chinese mainland,but have exceptional cases.Conclusions have been obtained through palaeobotanical studies,showing that in the Eocene-Oligocene period,southwest China and Hainan Island had subtropical vegetation and flora.However,the fossil group in southeast China(in Maoming,near present-day Hainan Island)in the Late Eocene indicated a tropical rainforest vegetation and flora.This suggests that in the Paleogene,Hainan Island may have been located near or on the southwest border of Guangxi and northern Vietnam,rather than in its present location.The floristic division of the flora of Hainan Island basically presents a northeast-southwest inclined distribution pattern.This pattern can be explained by the counterclockwise rotation of Hainan Island during its movement to the southeast as proposed by paleomagnetism research.The origin of Hainan Island as proposed by its geological tectonics and comparative research on its biota is further supported by evidence from molecular phylogeny,paleobotanical studies,and the distribution pattern of plant diversity in Hainan.In this paper,the time node(in the Miocene)of the evolution of its biota is also proposed,thereby providing a basis for the in-depth exploration of the origin and evolution of the biota of Hainan Island.展开更多
The Yangtze River economic belt(YREB),China is important to the Chinese economy and for supporting sustainable development.Clarifying the relationship between water quality indices and socioeconomic indicators could h...The Yangtze River economic belt(YREB),China is important to the Chinese economy and for supporting sustainable development.Clarifying the relationship between water quality indices and socioeconomic indicators could help improve aquatic environment management in the YREB and our understanding of the causes and effects of water quality variations in other large river basins.In this study,river water quality,factors affecting water quality,and management strategies,and correlations between water quality indices and socioeconomic indicators in the YREB during the 13th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020)were assessed.The single-factor evaluation method,constant price for GDP,and correlation analyses were adopted.The results showed that:1)water quality in the YREB improved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.The number of aquatic environment sections meeting GradeⅠ-Ⅲwater quality standards increased by 13.1%and the number below Grade V decreased by 2.9%.2)The values of 12 indicators in the YREB exceeded relevant standards.The indicators with highest concentreation were the total phosphorus,chemical oxygen demand,ammonia nitrogen,and permanganate index,which were relatively high in downstream regions in Anhui Province,Jiangsu Province,and Shanghai Municipality.3)Ammonia nitrogen,chemical oxygen demand,and total phosphorus emissions per unit area and water extraction per unit area are relatively high in the three downstream regions mentioned above.4)Increased domestic sewage discharges have increased total wastewater discharges in the YREB.5)River water quality in the YREB strongly correlated with population,economic,and water resource indices and less strongly correlated with government investment,agriculture,meteorology,energy,and forestry indices.This confirmed the need to decrease wastewater discharges and non-point-source pollutant emissions.The aquatic environment could be improved by taking reasonable measures to control population growth,adjusting the industrial structure to accelerate industrial transformation and increase the proportion of tertiary industries,and investing in technological innovations to protect the environment.展开更多
Historical forest and grassland cover changes not only are critical indicators for quantifying ecological and environmental change processes but also serve as fundamental data for long-term climate change simulations ...Historical forest and grassland cover changes not only are critical indicators for quantifying ecological and environmental change processes but also serve as fundamental data for long-term climate change simulations and terrestrial ecosystem carbon emission assessments.However,because of limitations in historical data,quantitative estimations and spatially gridded reconstructions of these changes remain challenging,necessitating further methodological exploration.This study focused on China's present-day land area over the past millennium,objectively capturing the characteristics and drivers of forest and grassland cover changes.On this basis,using the forest transition theory and the space-for-time substitution method,we depicted the historical deforestation process as an inverted“S”curve and developed a model to reconstruct historical forest area changes based on the functional relationship between the forest area and population size dynamics.Subsequently,a gridded forest allocation model was established on the basis of deforestation tendencies.For the grassland cover,we implemented regionspecific methods,such as the cropland area deduction method and the habitat constraint method,to quantitatively reconstruct historical changes.Consequently,we obtained provincial forest and grassland area changes over the past millennium and mapped 10-km-resolution gridded data of forest and grassland cover.The results indicated the following.(1)The methods developed using population data as a proxy objectively reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of forest and grassland cover in China over the past millennium.These feasible methods offer a novel pathway for the quantitative reconstruction of historical forest and grassland cover changes.(2)The data indicated that China's forest area generally decreased over the past millennium,characterized by a“decrease-then-increase”pattern.The forest area experienced three distinct phases:a slow decline(AD 1000–1650),a rapid decline(AD 1650–1960),and a gradual recovery(AD 1960–2000).The area decreased from 298 million hectares(Mha)in AD 1000 to 89 Mha in AD 1960 before increasing to 153 Mha in AD 2000.Spatially,deforestation began in the middlelower reaches of the Yellow River and gradually expanded to the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the southern coastal areas of China,southwest China,and northeast China,with the forest cover declining by 27%,40%,58%,55%,and 35%in these regions,respectively.(3)China's grassland area has shown a continuous decline over the past millennium with three phases:stable fluctuation(AD 1000–1600),slow decline(AD 1600–1900),and rapid decline(AD 1900–2000).The grassland area decreased from 305 Mha in AD 1000 to 277 Mha in AD 2000.Notably,zonal grassland areas in Northeast China,Inner Mongolia,Gan-Ning,Qinghai,Xinjiang,and Xizang decreased by 28 Mha over the millennium,whereas nonzonal secondary grassland areas in the hilly and mountainous areas of eastern and southern China increased by 0.3 Mha.展开更多
Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining ye...Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern.The SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia.The MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies.This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14.For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.展开更多
Three-dimensional ocean subsurface temperature and salinity structures(OST/OSS)in the South China Sea(SCS)play crucial roles in oceanic climate research and disaster mitigation.Traditionally,real-time OST and OSS are ...Three-dimensional ocean subsurface temperature and salinity structures(OST/OSS)in the South China Sea(SCS)play crucial roles in oceanic climate research and disaster mitigation.Traditionally,real-time OST and OSS are mainly obtained through in-situ ocean observations and simulation by ocean circulation models,which are usually challenging and costly.Recently,dynamical,statistical,or machine learning models have been proposed to invert the OST/OSS from sea surface information;however,these models mainly focused on the inversion of monthly OST and OSS.To address this issue,we apply clustering algorithms and employ a stacking strategy to ensemble three models(XGBoost,Random Forest,and LightGBM)to invert the real-time OST/OSS based on satellite-derived data and the Argo dataset.Subsequently,a fusion of temperature and salinity is employed to reconstruct OST and OSS.In the validation dataset,the depth-averaged Correlation(Corr)of the estimated OST(OSS)is 0.919(0.83),and the average Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)is0.639°C(0.087 psu),with a depth-averaged coefficient of determination(R~2)of 0.84(0.68).Notably,at the thermocline where the base models exhibit their maximum error,the stacking-based fusion model exhibited significant performance enhancement,with a maximum enhancement in OST and OSS inversion exceeding 10%.We further found that the estimated OST and OSS exhibit good agreement with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)data and BOA_Argo dataset during the passage of a mesoscale eddy.This study shows that the proposed model can effectively invert the real-time OST and OSS,potentially enhancing the understanding of multi-scale oceanic processes in the SCS.展开更多
Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural...Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability and food security.Taking the Loess Plateau(LP),China as an example,this study used a coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis to portray the spatial and temporal features of crop-cropland coupling relationship from 2000 to 2020 and explored the impact law of climate change through geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR).The results were as follows:1)the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree of the LP showed a gradual upward trend from 2000 to 2020,forming a spatial pattern with lower values in the central region and higher values in the surrounding areas.2)There was a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of cropcropland coupling coordination degree in the LP from 2000 to 2020,and the high value-low value(H-L)and low value-low value(L-L)agglomerations continued to expand eastward,while the spatial and temporal evolution of the high value-high value(H-H)and low value-high value(L-H)agglomerations was not obvious.3)The impacts of climatic elements on crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP showed strong heterogeneity in time scales.The inhibitory impacts of summer days(SU)and frost days(FD)accounted for a higher proportion,while the annual average temperature(TEM)had both promoting and inhibiting impacts.The impacts proportion and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation day(R25),continuous drought days(CDD),and annual precipitation(PRE)all experienced significant changes.4)In space,the impacts of SU and FD on the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree varied with latitude and altitude.The adaptability of the LP to R25 gradually strengthened,and the extensions of CDD and increase of PRE led to the increasing inhibition beyond the eastern region of LP,and TEM showed a promoting impact in the Fenwei Plain.As an important grainproducing area in China,the LP should actively deal with the impacts of climate change on the crop-cropland coupling relationship,vigorously safeguard food security,and promote sustainable agricultural development.展开更多
Changes in river cross-section morphology have decisive influences on the flood discharge and sand transport capacity of rivers;thus,these changes strongly reflect the vitality of a river.In this paper,based on the ri...Changes in river cross-section morphology have decisive influences on the flood discharge and sand transport capacity of rivers;thus,these changes strongly reflect the vitality of a river.In this paper,based on the river cross-section and water and sediment data of two different periods(1974−1987 and 2007−2021),the trend analysis,change-point analysis and sediment rating curve method were used to analyze the change process of river cross-section morphology and its response to streamflow and sediment changes in the main river stream of the Yellow River at the Longmen hydrological station.From 1974 to 1987(except in 1977),the riverbed experi-enced siltation,and the riverbed elevation rose.Conversely,from 2007 to 2021,the riverbed experienced scouring,and the riverbed el-evation gradually decreased.The cross-section shape changed from rectangular to U-shaped(deeper on the right side)at the Longmen cross-section.The changes in streamflow and sediment processes significantly impacted the evolution of river cross-section.Stream-flow(P<0.05),sediment discharge(P<0.01),and the sediment load coefficients(P<0.01)decreased significantly.The relationship between the water depth and sediment load coefficients followed a power function.The decreasing trend in sediment discharge was sig-nificantly stronger than that in streamflow.Suspended sediment particles tended to become finer.The sediment rating curve indicates that the sediment supply from upstream decreased while the erosive power in the river channel increased,leading to a gradual decline in riverbed elevation at the Longmen cross-section from 2007 to 2021.These findings help us better understand the impacts of ecological restoration on changes in river streamflow and sediment during river evolution.展开更多
This study focuses on urgent research on restoring and enhancing carbon storage capacity in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomer-ation of China,a key area in the‘Belt and Road’Initiative,which aligns with carbon peaking an...This study focuses on urgent research on restoring and enhancing carbon storage capacity in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomer-ation of China,a key area in the‘Belt and Road’Initiative,which aligns with carbon peaking and neutrality goals.This research ana-lyzes the spatial characteristics of carbon metabolism from 2000 to 2020 and uses models to identify stable carbon sink areas,positive carbon flow corridors,and carbon sequestration nodes.The goal is to construct a carbon metabolism spatial security pattern(CMSSP)and propose territorial ecological restoration strategies under different development demand scenarios.The results show the following:1)in 2020,the study area’s carbon sink decreased by 8.29×10^(4) t C/yr compared with that in 2010 and by 10.83×10^(4) t C/yr compared with that in 2000.High-carbon sinks were found mainly in mountainous areas,whereas low-carbon sinks are concentrated in urban con-struction land,rural residential areas,and land margins.2)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial security pattern of carbon metabolism tended to be‘high in the middle of the east and west and low in the gulf.’In 2000,2010,and 2020,16 stable carbon sinks were identified.The carbon energy flow density in Guangxi was greater than that in Guangdong and Hainan,with positive carbon flow corridors located primarily in Guangxi and Guangdong.The number of carbon sequestration nodes remained stable at approximately 15,mainly in Guangxi and Hainan.3)Scenario simulations revealed that under the Nature-based mild restoration scenario,the carbon sink rate will reach 611.85×10^(4) t C/yr by 2030 and increase to 612.45×10^(4) t C/yr by 2060,with stable carbon sinks increasing to 18.In the restora-tion scenario based on Anti-globalization,the carbon sink will decrease from 610.24×10^(4) t C/yr in 2030 to 605.19×10^(4) t C/yr in 2060,with the disappearance of some positive carbon flow corridors and stable carbon sinks.Under the Human-based sustainable restoration scenario,the carbon sink area will decrease from 607.00×10^(4) t C/yr in 2030 to 596.39×10^(4) t C/yr in 2060,with carbon sink areas frag-menting and positive carbon flow corridors becoming less dense.4)On the basis of the current and predicted CMSSPs,this study ex-plores spatial ecological restoration strategies for high-carbon storage areas in bay urban agglomerations at four levels:the land control region,urban agglomeration structure system,carbon sink structure and bay structure control region.展开更多
Rapid increases in Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))levels could trigger unpredictable climate change.The assessment of spatiotempor-al variation and influencing factors of CO_(2) concentration are helpful in understanding the s...Rapid increases in Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))levels could trigger unpredictable climate change.The assessment of spatiotempor-al variation and influencing factors of CO_(2) concentration are helpful in understanding the source/sink balance and supporting the formu-lation of climate policy.In this study,Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)data were used to explore the variability of CO_(2) concentrations in China from 2009 to 2020.Meteorological parameters,vegetation cover,and anthropogenic activities were combined to explain the increase in CO_(2) concentration,using pixel-based correlations and Covariance Based Structural Equation Modeling(CB-SEM)analysis.The results showed that the influence of vertical CO_(2) transport diminished with altitude,with a distinct inter-annual in-crease in CO_(2) concentrations at 17 vertical levels.Spatially,the highest values were observed in East China,whereas the lowest were observed in Northwest China.There were significant seasonal variations in CO_(2) concentration,with maximum and minimum values in spring(April)and summer(August),respectively.According to the pixel-based correlation analysis,the near-surface CO_(2) concentration was positively correlated with population(r=0.99,P<0.001),Leaf Area Index(LAI,r=0.95,P<0.001),emissions(r=0.91,P<0.001),temperature(r=0.60,P<0.05),precipitation(r=0.34,P>0.05),soil water(r=0.29,P>0.05),nightlight(r=0.28,P>0.05);and negatively correlated with wind speed(r=−0.58,P<0.05).CB-SEM analysis revealed that LAI was the most important con-trolling factor explaining CO_(2) concentration variation(total effect of 0.66),followed by emissions(0.58),temperature(0.45),precipita-tion(0.30),wind speed(−0.28),and soil water(−0.07).The model explained 93% of the increase in CO_(2) concentration.Our results provide crucial information on the patterns of CO_(2) concentrations and their driving mechanisms,which are particularly significant in the context of climate change.展开更多
The productivity of vegetation is influenced by both climate change and human activities.Understanding the specific contributions of these influencing factors is crucial for ecological conservation and regional sustai...The productivity of vegetation is influenced by both climate change and human activities.Understanding the specific contributions of these influencing factors is crucial for ecological conservation and regional sustainability.This study utilized a combination of multi-source data to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of Net Primary Productivity(NPP)in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),China from 1982 to 2020.Additionally,a scenario-based approach was employed to compare Potential NPP(PNPP)with Actual NPP(ANPP)to determine the relative roles of climatic and human factors in NPP changes.The PNPP was estimated using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator(LPJ-GUESS)model,while ANPP was evaluated by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model using different NDVI data sources.Both model simulations revealed that significant greening occurring in the YRB,with a gradual decrease observed from southeast to northwest.According to the LPJ_GUESS model simulations,areas experiencing an increasing trend in NPP accounted for 86.82% of the YRB.When using GIMMS and MODIS NDVI data with CASA model simulations,areas showing an increasing trend in NPP accounted for 71.42% and 97.02%,respectively.Furthermore,both climatic conditions and human factors had positive effects on vegetation restoration;approximated 41.15% of restored vegetation areas were influenced by both climate variation and human activities,while around 31.93% were solely affected by climate variation.However,it was found that human activities served as the principal driving force of vegetation degradation within the YRB,impacting 26.35% of degraded areas solely due to human activities.Therefore,effective management strategies encompassing both human activities and climate change adaptation are imperative for facilitating vegetation restoration within this region.These findings will valuable for enhancing our understanding in NPP changes and its underlying factors,thereby contributing to improved ecological management and the pursuit of regional carbon neutrality in China.展开更多
The Ordos Basin(OB)in the western part of the North China Craton(NCC),was located at the jointed area of multi-plates and has recorded the Mesozoic tectonic characteristics.Its tectonic evolution in the Mesozoic is si...The Ordos Basin(OB)in the western part of the North China Craton(NCC),was located at the jointed area of multi-plates and has recorded the Mesozoic tectonic characteristics.Its tectonic evolution in the Mesozoic is significant to understand the tectonic transformation of the northern margin of the NCC.In this work,the detrital zircon and apatite(U-Th)/He chronological system were analyzed in the northern part of the OB,and have provided new evidence for the regional tectonic evolution.The(U-Th)/He chronological data states the weighted ages of 240‒235 Ma,141 Ma with the peak distribution of 244 Ma,219 Ma,173 Ma,147‒132 Ma.The thermal evolution,geochronological data,and regional unconformities have proved four stages of regional tectonic evolution for the OB and its surroundings in the Mesozoic:(1)The Late Permian-Early Triassic;(2)the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic;(3)the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous;(4)the Late Cretaceous-Early Paleogene.It is indicated that the multi-directional convergence from the surrounding tectonic units has controlled the Mesozoic tectonic evolution of the OB.Four-stage tectonic evolution reflected the activation or end of different plate movements and provided new time constraints for the regional tectonic evolution of the NCC in the Mesozoic.展开更多
The alpine ecosystem has great potential for carbon sequestration.Soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(TN)are highly sensitive to climate change,and their dynamics are crucial to revealing the effect of climate ...The alpine ecosystem has great potential for carbon sequestration.Soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(TN)are highly sensitive to climate change,and their dynamics are crucial to revealing the effect of climate change on the structure,function,and services of the ecosystem.However,the spatial distribution and controlling factors of SOC and TN across various soil layers and vegetation types within this unique ecosystem remain inadequately understood.In this study,256 soil samples in 89 sites were collected from the Three River Headwaters Region(TRHR)in China to investigate SOC and TN and to explore the primary factors affecting their distribution,including soil,vegetation,climate,and geography factors.The results show that SOC and TN contents in 0-20,20-40,40-60,and 60-80 cm soil layers are 24.40,18.03,14.04,12.40 g/kg and 2.46,1.90,1.51,1.17 g/kg,respectively;with higher concentrations observed in the southeastern region compared to the northwest of the TRHR.One-way analysis of variance reveals that SOC and TN levels are elevated in the alpine meadow and the alpine shrub relative to the alpine steppe in the 0-60 cm soil layers.The structural equation model explores that soil water content is the main controlling factor affecting the variation of SOC and TN.Moreover,the geography,climate,and vegetation factors notably indirectly affect SOC and TN through soil factors.Therefore,it can effectively improve soil water and nutrient conditions through vegetation restoration,soil improvement,and grazing management,and the change of SOC and TN can be fully understood by establishing monitoring networks to better protect soil carbon and nitrogen.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China [grant numbers 41991281 and 42005028]。
文摘Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.
基金support from the Shanghai Key Laboratory Novel Extreme Condition Materials,China(Grant No.22dz2260800)and the Shanghai Science and Technology Committee,China(Grant No.22JC1410300).
文摘A uniquely shaped impact structure,the Hailin impact crater,has been discovered in northeast China.The crater was formed on a granodiorite hillside and is an oval depression with asymmetric rim height and a maximum diameter of 1360 m.The bottom of the crater is filled by Quaternary sediments with large amounts of rock fragments underneath.The discovery of quartz planar deformation features in rock clasts on the crater floor provides diagnostic evidence for the impact origin of the structure.The shape of the crater is largely due to the impact having occurred on a ridge terrain.The impact event probably occurred in the late Cenozoic Era.The Hailin impact crater is the fourth confirmed Chinese impact crater.
文摘LAST year saw a robust increase in international visits to China due to the expansion of its visa-free policy,improvement in payment services,resumption of multiple direct flights,and construction of new infrastructure.As China is opening up wider to the world,more foreign tourists are flocking to the country.As a means of cultural exchange,tourism allows people to experience first-hand the openness,inclusiveness,safety,stability,and prosperity of China.This in the end helps the country to build up its international image and soft power.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42371315,41901213)Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2020CFB856)Project of Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd(No.CX2022Z23)。
文摘Investigating the ecological impact of land use change in the context of the construction of national water network project is crucial,as it is imperative for achieving the sustainable development goals of the national water network and guaranteeing regional ecological stability.Using the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area(DRA),China as the study area,this paper first examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of natural landscape patterns and ecosystem service values(ESV)in the DRA from 2000 to 2018 and then investigated the spatial clustering characteristics of the ESV using spatial statistical analysis tools.Finally,the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model was used to simulate the natural landscape and future changes in the ESV of the DRA from 2018 to 2028 under four different development scenarios:business as usual(BAU),economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP),and shoreline protection(SP).The results show that:during 2000-2018,the construction of water facilities had a significant impact on regional land use/land cover(LULC)change,with a 24830 ha increase in watershed area.ESV exhibited an increasing trend,with a significant and growing spatial clustering effect.The transformation of farmland to water bodies led to accelerated ESV growth,while the transformation of forest land to farmland led to a decrease in the ESV.Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)had the strongest effect on the ESV.ESV exhibited a continuous increase from 2018 to 2028 under all the simulation scenarios.The EP scenario had the greatest increase in ESV,while the ED scenario had the smallest increase.The findings suggest that projected land use patterns under different scenarios have varied impacts on ecosystem services(ESs)and that the management and planning of the DRA should balance social,economic,ecological,and security benefits.nomic,ecological,and security benefits.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation Major Project(Grant No.23&ZD099)the National Natural Science Foundation Innovation Group Project(Grant No.71921003)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation Youth Project(Grant No.42201301)the Jiangsu Carbon Peak Carbon Neutral Science and Technology Innovation Special Fund Project(Grant No.BK20220037)the Energy Foundation Grant Project(Grant No.G-2304-34498)the Central University Basic Research Expenses Project(Grant No.0209/14380116)。
文摘Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target.However,current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of their economic benefits.This study integrates a warming-labour productivity model with a typical integrated assessment model using shared socioeconomic pathways.It simulates China's economic development and carbon emission levels under both baseline and carbon-neutral policy scenarios,evaluating the economic costs and benefits of emission reduction policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.These findings reveal the following:(1)The economic costs of emission reduction policies are projected to peak between 2050 and 2060,ranging from 0.41%to 9.37%of total GDP in the baseline scenario,primarily due to increased energy prices and R&D investments.These costs are expected to decline rapidly after 2070.(2)China's carbon-neutral policies will mitigate global warming,with the economic benefits of mitigation projected to reach 5.65%to 17.24%of China's total GDP by 2100.(3)Lowcarbon scenarios SSP1 and SSP4 could significantly reduce initial economic costs and advance the onset of net economic gains to 2060.This integrated assessment confirms that China's carbon neutrality target offers substantial net economic benefits in the long term.To minimize initial economic costs,efforts should focus on enhancing consumption-side transitions,upgrading lowcarbon technologies,and adopting new energy sources.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42471205)the General Scientific Research Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Education(No.2024JYTYB12)the Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project of Zhejiang Province(No.23NDJC109YB)。
文摘In the era of the digital economy,digital trade has demonstrated strong vitality,becoming a crucial driving force for the highquality development of national and regional economies.However,understanding the resilience of digital trade in the face of external crises is an important topic.Taking the backdrop of Sino-US trade friction,this paper constructs a resilience index system for digital trade.It utilizes entropy method,kernel density estimation,and ArcGIS mapping to calculate and visually analyze the resilience of China’s digital trade from 2017 to 2021.Additionally,a Tobit model is constructed to explore the main influencing factors of digital trade resilience patterns.The research findings indicate:1)temporally,during the period of Sino-US trade friction,China’s digital trade resilience shows an overall upward trend,but there are regional differences in resilience levels across the country,with a severe polarization phenomenon.2)Spatially,high resilience is observed in the eastern and central regions of China,while the western and northeastern regions exhibit low resilience.3)From a dimensional perspective,the resistance of digital trade resilience displays a spatial distribution of high values in the east and low values in the west.The recovery force is aggregated along coastal areas,and the renewal force tends to aggregate along the eastern coastline.4)Factors such as economic scale,industrial structure,urbanization rate,government fiscal expenditure,and technological talents significantly promote the enhancement of digital trade resilience.This study reveals the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of digital trade resilience in responding to external shocks,providing theoretical basis and policy suggestions for enhancing digital trade resilience,and promoting high-quality economic development in China.
基金supported by the Geological Survey Program of Shandong Province(Yingpeng Wang)Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects(Yongbin Wang)。
文摘The onset of the big mantle wedge(BMW)structure beneath the North China Craton remains debated.Research on the genesis of Late Mesozoic granites associated with gold deposits in the Jiaodong Peninsula above the BMW could provide fresh insights into this question.The monzogranite from the Zhaoxian-Shaling gold district was intruded during 154-148 Ma.This I-type granite has high-K calc-alkaline and metaluminous characteristics.The monzogranite formed at medium temperatures(718-770℃)and was generated in a thickened lower crust at depths within the stability field of garnet.The monzogranite’s high zircon Ce^(4+)/Ce^(3+)and Eu_(N)/Eu_(N)^(*)values and low FeOT/MgO ratios,suggest that it formed in a high oxygen environment.Its variableε_(Hf)(t)values with T_(DM2)of 1.93-2.87 Ga imply that it originated from the melting of ancient crust basement,with contributions from mantle-derived materials.The granite’s enrichment in LREEs and LILEs,and depletion in HREEs and HFSEs,along with its trace element tectonic discrimination diagrams and medium Sr/Y,indicate an adakite affinity in an active continental margin setting.The transition from S-type granites to I-type granites and finally to A-type granites observed in the eastern part of North China Craton suggests a shift in the tectonic environment from compression to extension.This change is also reflected in the transition from flat subduction to steep subduction.Therefore,the monzogranite was formed in a tectonic transition setting triggered by a change in the subduction angle of the PaleoPacific Ocean slab during the Late Jurassic.This event may have marked the initiation of the BMW above the North China Craton.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271181,41871111)。
文摘Environmental inequality is a prevalent issue in developing countries undergoing urban expansion.Urban expansion induces the formation and evolution of environmental inequality by creating environmental and structural conditions that lead to the spatial relocation of environmental hazards and the socio-spatial segregation of different groups in developing countries.This study investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of environmental inequality under urban expansion in Guangzhou,a megacity in China.It considered how environmental disparities and socio-demographic attributes interact in terms of industrial pollution exposure using additive semiparametric quantile regression,combined with spatial visualisation,on the basis of the economic and population census data from 1990 to 2020.This study revealed that urban expansion sparked the spatial displacement of environmental risks and the social-spatial differentiation,exposing the peripheral regions and disadvantaged groups to higher environmental risks.A reciprocal transformation occurred between central and peripheral regions,as well as a process of redistributing environmental risks across social space.In the context of urban expansion in developing countries,the causes of environmental inequality shifted from individual socio-economic differences to structural factors,such as industrial layout and social division of labour in cities,leading to the spatial displacement and concealment of environmental inequality.This study provides insights and guidance for policymakers to address the issue of environmental inequality in the context of urban expansion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31970223)the Yunnan Province Science and Technology Department(Grant No.202203AP140007)+2 种基金the Yunnan Key Laboratory for the Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants(Grant No.202305AG070003)the Hainan Institute of National Park(Grant No.KY-24ZK02)the Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(Grant No.ZDYF2023RDYL01)。
文摘The origin of the biota of Hainan Island,China,remains a fundamental scientific problem.Comparative studies on the biota,geological tectonics,and paleomagnetism proposed that during the Eocene,Hainan Island connected Vietnam and Guangxi,and then moved to the southeast to reach its present location.This review mainly discusses its biota origin from molecular phylogeny and palaeobotanical research.The formation and evolution of the biological groups of Hainan Island were identified via research on their genomes,phylogeny,and molecular biogeography.This research showed that the genera and species that appeared and diverged early in their evolution(i.e.,before the Miocene)can be explained by the land connection between Hainan Island,Vietnam,and Guangxi during the Eocene-Oligocene.According to Southeast Asian tectonic theory,in the Middle Miocene(at about 15 million years ago),Hainan Island had moved to its present position.The population and genetic divergence of species with late divergence times(after 15 Ma)can be reasonably explained by the close proximity(or land connection)between Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula,enabling genetic communication between Hainan Island and the Chinese mainland,but have exceptional cases.Conclusions have been obtained through palaeobotanical studies,showing that in the Eocene-Oligocene period,southwest China and Hainan Island had subtropical vegetation and flora.However,the fossil group in southeast China(in Maoming,near present-day Hainan Island)in the Late Eocene indicated a tropical rainforest vegetation and flora.This suggests that in the Paleogene,Hainan Island may have been located near or on the southwest border of Guangxi and northern Vietnam,rather than in its present location.The floristic division of the flora of Hainan Island basically presents a northeast-southwest inclined distribution pattern.This pattern can be explained by the counterclockwise rotation of Hainan Island during its movement to the southeast as proposed by paleomagnetism research.The origin of Hainan Island as proposed by its geological tectonics and comparative research on its biota is further supported by evidence from molecular phylogeny,paleobotanical studies,and the distribution pattern of plant diversity in Hainan.In this paper,the time node(in the Miocene)of the evolution of its biota is also proposed,thereby providing a basis for the in-depth exploration of the origin and evolution of the biota of Hainan Island.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3204404,2023YFF1303705)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U2243206)。
文摘The Yangtze River economic belt(YREB),China is important to the Chinese economy and for supporting sustainable development.Clarifying the relationship between water quality indices and socioeconomic indicators could help improve aquatic environment management in the YREB and our understanding of the causes and effects of water quality variations in other large river basins.In this study,river water quality,factors affecting water quality,and management strategies,and correlations between water quality indices and socioeconomic indicators in the YREB during the 13th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020)were assessed.The single-factor evaluation method,constant price for GDP,and correlation analyses were adopted.The results showed that:1)water quality in the YREB improved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.The number of aquatic environment sections meeting GradeⅠ-Ⅲwater quality standards increased by 13.1%and the number below Grade V decreased by 2.9%.2)The values of 12 indicators in the YREB exceeded relevant standards.The indicators with highest concentreation were the total phosphorus,chemical oxygen demand,ammonia nitrogen,and permanganate index,which were relatively high in downstream regions in Anhui Province,Jiangsu Province,and Shanghai Municipality.3)Ammonia nitrogen,chemical oxygen demand,and total phosphorus emissions per unit area and water extraction per unit area are relatively high in the three downstream regions mentioned above.4)Increased domestic sewage discharges have increased total wastewater discharges in the YREB.5)River water quality in the YREB strongly correlated with population,economic,and water resource indices and less strongly correlated with government investment,agriculture,meteorology,energy,and forestry indices.This confirmed the need to decrease wastewater discharges and non-point-source pollutant emissions.The aquatic environment could be improved by taking reasonable measures to control population growth,adjusting the industrial structure to accelerate industrial transformation and increase the proportion of tertiary industries,and investing in technological innovations to protect the environment.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42201263)。
文摘Historical forest and grassland cover changes not only are critical indicators for quantifying ecological and environmental change processes but also serve as fundamental data for long-term climate change simulations and terrestrial ecosystem carbon emission assessments.However,because of limitations in historical data,quantitative estimations and spatially gridded reconstructions of these changes remain challenging,necessitating further methodological exploration.This study focused on China's present-day land area over the past millennium,objectively capturing the characteristics and drivers of forest and grassland cover changes.On this basis,using the forest transition theory and the space-for-time substitution method,we depicted the historical deforestation process as an inverted“S”curve and developed a model to reconstruct historical forest area changes based on the functional relationship between the forest area and population size dynamics.Subsequently,a gridded forest allocation model was established on the basis of deforestation tendencies.For the grassland cover,we implemented regionspecific methods,such as the cropland area deduction method and the habitat constraint method,to quantitatively reconstruct historical changes.Consequently,we obtained provincial forest and grassland area changes over the past millennium and mapped 10-km-resolution gridded data of forest and grassland cover.The results indicated the following.(1)The methods developed using population data as a proxy objectively reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of forest and grassland cover in China over the past millennium.These feasible methods offer a novel pathway for the quantitative reconstruction of historical forest and grassland cover changes.(2)The data indicated that China's forest area generally decreased over the past millennium,characterized by a“decrease-then-increase”pattern.The forest area experienced three distinct phases:a slow decline(AD 1000–1650),a rapid decline(AD 1650–1960),and a gradual recovery(AD 1960–2000).The area decreased from 298 million hectares(Mha)in AD 1000 to 89 Mha in AD 1960 before increasing to 153 Mha in AD 2000.Spatially,deforestation began in the middlelower reaches of the Yellow River and gradually expanded to the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the southern coastal areas of China,southwest China,and northeast China,with the forest cover declining by 27%,40%,58%,55%,and 35%in these regions,respectively.(3)China's grassland area has shown a continuous decline over the past millennium with three phases:stable fluctuation(AD 1000–1600),slow decline(AD 1600–1900),and rapid decline(AD 1900–2000).The grassland area decreased from 305 Mha in AD 1000 to 277 Mha in AD 2000.Notably,zonal grassland areas in Northeast China,Inner Mongolia,Gan-Ning,Qinghai,Xinjiang,and Xizang decreased by 28 Mha over the millennium,whereas nonzonal secondary grassland areas in the hilly and mountainous areas of eastern and southern China increased by 0.3 Mha.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801604)the Science and Technology Development Plan in Jilin Province of China(Grant No.20230203135SF)。
文摘Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern.The SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia.The MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies.This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14.For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3104304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41876011)+1 种基金the 2022 Research Program of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City(SKJC-2022-01-001)the Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(ZDYF2021SHFZ265)。
文摘Three-dimensional ocean subsurface temperature and salinity structures(OST/OSS)in the South China Sea(SCS)play crucial roles in oceanic climate research and disaster mitigation.Traditionally,real-time OST and OSS are mainly obtained through in-situ ocean observations and simulation by ocean circulation models,which are usually challenging and costly.Recently,dynamical,statistical,or machine learning models have been proposed to invert the OST/OSS from sea surface information;however,these models mainly focused on the inversion of monthly OST and OSS.To address this issue,we apply clustering algorithms and employ a stacking strategy to ensemble three models(XGBoost,Random Forest,and LightGBM)to invert the real-time OST/OSS based on satellite-derived data and the Argo dataset.Subsequently,a fusion of temperature and salinity is employed to reconstruct OST and OSS.In the validation dataset,the depth-averaged Correlation(Corr)of the estimated OST(OSS)is 0.919(0.83),and the average Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)is0.639°C(0.087 psu),with a depth-averaged coefficient of determination(R~2)of 0.84(0.68).Notably,at the thermocline where the base models exhibit their maximum error,the stacking-based fusion model exhibited significant performance enhancement,with a maximum enhancement in OST and OSS inversion exceeding 10%.We further found that the estimated OST and OSS exhibit good agreement with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)data and BOA_Argo dataset during the passage of a mesoscale eddy.This study shows that the proposed model can effectively invert the real-time OST and OSS,potentially enhancing the understanding of multi-scale oceanic processes in the SCS.
基金Under the auspices of Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42293271)Alliance of International Science Organizations(No.ANSO-PA-2023-16)。
文摘Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability and food security.Taking the Loess Plateau(LP),China as an example,this study used a coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis to portray the spatial and temporal features of crop-cropland coupling relationship from 2000 to 2020 and explored the impact law of climate change through geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR).The results were as follows:1)the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree of the LP showed a gradual upward trend from 2000 to 2020,forming a spatial pattern with lower values in the central region and higher values in the surrounding areas.2)There was a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of cropcropland coupling coordination degree in the LP from 2000 to 2020,and the high value-low value(H-L)and low value-low value(L-L)agglomerations continued to expand eastward,while the spatial and temporal evolution of the high value-high value(H-H)and low value-high value(L-H)agglomerations was not obvious.3)The impacts of climatic elements on crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP showed strong heterogeneity in time scales.The inhibitory impacts of summer days(SU)and frost days(FD)accounted for a higher proportion,while the annual average temperature(TEM)had both promoting and inhibiting impacts.The impacts proportion and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation day(R25),continuous drought days(CDD),and annual precipitation(PRE)all experienced significant changes.4)In space,the impacts of SU and FD on the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree varied with latitude and altitude.The adaptability of the LP to R25 gradually strengthened,and the extensions of CDD and increase of PRE led to the increasing inhibition beyond the eastern region of LP,and TEM showed a promoting impact in the Fenwei Plain.As an important grainproducing area in China,the LP should actively deal with the impacts of climate change on the crop-cropland coupling relationship,vigorously safeguard food security,and promote sustainable agricultural development.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42277354,U2243211)Fundamental Research Funds for the Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering(No.SYKY2113)Science Research Project of Hebei Education Department(No.QN2025293)。
文摘Changes in river cross-section morphology have decisive influences on the flood discharge and sand transport capacity of rivers;thus,these changes strongly reflect the vitality of a river.In this paper,based on the river cross-section and water and sediment data of two different periods(1974−1987 and 2007−2021),the trend analysis,change-point analysis and sediment rating curve method were used to analyze the change process of river cross-section morphology and its response to streamflow and sediment changes in the main river stream of the Yellow River at the Longmen hydrological station.From 1974 to 1987(except in 1977),the riverbed experi-enced siltation,and the riverbed elevation rose.Conversely,from 2007 to 2021,the riverbed experienced scouring,and the riverbed el-evation gradually decreased.The cross-section shape changed from rectangular to U-shaped(deeper on the right side)at the Longmen cross-section.The changes in streamflow and sediment processes significantly impacted the evolution of river cross-section.Stream-flow(P<0.05),sediment discharge(P<0.01),and the sediment load coefficients(P<0.01)decreased significantly.The relationship between the water depth and sediment load coefficients followed a power function.The decreasing trend in sediment discharge was sig-nificantly stronger than that in streamflow.Suspended sediment particles tended to become finer.The sediment rating curve indicates that the sediment supply from upstream decreased while the erosive power in the river channel increased,leading to a gradual decline in riverbed elevation at the Longmen cross-section from 2007 to 2021.These findings help us better understand the impacts of ecological restoration on changes in river streamflow and sediment during river evolution.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52268008)。
文摘This study focuses on urgent research on restoring and enhancing carbon storage capacity in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomer-ation of China,a key area in the‘Belt and Road’Initiative,which aligns with carbon peaking and neutrality goals.This research ana-lyzes the spatial characteristics of carbon metabolism from 2000 to 2020 and uses models to identify stable carbon sink areas,positive carbon flow corridors,and carbon sequestration nodes.The goal is to construct a carbon metabolism spatial security pattern(CMSSP)and propose territorial ecological restoration strategies under different development demand scenarios.The results show the following:1)in 2020,the study area’s carbon sink decreased by 8.29×10^(4) t C/yr compared with that in 2010 and by 10.83×10^(4) t C/yr compared with that in 2000.High-carbon sinks were found mainly in mountainous areas,whereas low-carbon sinks are concentrated in urban con-struction land,rural residential areas,and land margins.2)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial security pattern of carbon metabolism tended to be‘high in the middle of the east and west and low in the gulf.’In 2000,2010,and 2020,16 stable carbon sinks were identified.The carbon energy flow density in Guangxi was greater than that in Guangdong and Hainan,with positive carbon flow corridors located primarily in Guangxi and Guangdong.The number of carbon sequestration nodes remained stable at approximately 15,mainly in Guangxi and Hainan.3)Scenario simulations revealed that under the Nature-based mild restoration scenario,the carbon sink rate will reach 611.85×10^(4) t C/yr by 2030 and increase to 612.45×10^(4) t C/yr by 2060,with stable carbon sinks increasing to 18.In the restora-tion scenario based on Anti-globalization,the carbon sink will decrease from 610.24×10^(4) t C/yr in 2030 to 605.19×10^(4) t C/yr in 2060,with the disappearance of some positive carbon flow corridors and stable carbon sinks.Under the Human-based sustainable restoration scenario,the carbon sink area will decrease from 607.00×10^(4) t C/yr in 2030 to 596.39×10^(4) t C/yr in 2060,with carbon sink areas frag-menting and positive carbon flow corridors becoming less dense.4)On the basis of the current and predicted CMSSPs,this study ex-plores spatial ecological restoration strategies for high-carbon storage areas in bay urban agglomerations at four levels:the land control region,urban agglomeration structure system,carbon sink structure and bay structure control region.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41871193,U1910207)Program for the Philosophy and Social Science of Shanxi Province(No.2023YJ107)。
文摘Rapid increases in Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))levels could trigger unpredictable climate change.The assessment of spatiotempor-al variation and influencing factors of CO_(2) concentration are helpful in understanding the source/sink balance and supporting the formu-lation of climate policy.In this study,Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)data were used to explore the variability of CO_(2) concentrations in China from 2009 to 2020.Meteorological parameters,vegetation cover,and anthropogenic activities were combined to explain the increase in CO_(2) concentration,using pixel-based correlations and Covariance Based Structural Equation Modeling(CB-SEM)analysis.The results showed that the influence of vertical CO_(2) transport diminished with altitude,with a distinct inter-annual in-crease in CO_(2) concentrations at 17 vertical levels.Spatially,the highest values were observed in East China,whereas the lowest were observed in Northwest China.There were significant seasonal variations in CO_(2) concentration,with maximum and minimum values in spring(April)and summer(August),respectively.According to the pixel-based correlation analysis,the near-surface CO_(2) concentration was positively correlated with population(r=0.99,P<0.001),Leaf Area Index(LAI,r=0.95,P<0.001),emissions(r=0.91,P<0.001),temperature(r=0.60,P<0.05),precipitation(r=0.34,P>0.05),soil water(r=0.29,P>0.05),nightlight(r=0.28,P>0.05);and negatively correlated with wind speed(r=−0.58,P<0.05).CB-SEM analysis revealed that LAI was the most important con-trolling factor explaining CO_(2) concentration variation(total effect of 0.66),followed by emissions(0.58),temperature(0.45),precipita-tion(0.30),wind speed(−0.28),and soil water(−0.07).The model explained 93% of the increase in CO_(2) concentration.Our results provide crucial information on the patterns of CO_(2) concentrations and their driving mechanisms,which are particularly significant in the context of climate change.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41991231,U21A2011)。
文摘The productivity of vegetation is influenced by both climate change and human activities.Understanding the specific contributions of these influencing factors is crucial for ecological conservation and regional sustainability.This study utilized a combination of multi-source data to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of Net Primary Productivity(NPP)in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),China from 1982 to 2020.Additionally,a scenario-based approach was employed to compare Potential NPP(PNPP)with Actual NPP(ANPP)to determine the relative roles of climatic and human factors in NPP changes.The PNPP was estimated using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator(LPJ-GUESS)model,while ANPP was evaluated by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model using different NDVI data sources.Both model simulations revealed that significant greening occurring in the YRB,with a gradual decrease observed from southeast to northwest.According to the LPJ_GUESS model simulations,areas experiencing an increasing trend in NPP accounted for 86.82% of the YRB.When using GIMMS and MODIS NDVI data with CASA model simulations,areas showing an increasing trend in NPP accounted for 71.42% and 97.02%,respectively.Furthermore,both climatic conditions and human factors had positive effects on vegetation restoration;approximated 41.15% of restored vegetation areas were influenced by both climate variation and human activities,while around 31.93% were solely affected by climate variation.However,it was found that human activities served as the principal driving force of vegetation degradation within the YRB,impacting 26.35% of degraded areas solely due to human activities.Therefore,effective management strategies encompassing both human activities and climate change adaptation are imperative for facilitating vegetation restoration within this region.These findings will valuable for enhancing our understanding in NPP changes and its underlying factors,thereby contributing to improved ecological management and the pursuit of regional carbon neutrality in China.
基金This study was jointly supported by the Science&Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program(2022FY101800)National Science Foundation(92162212)+1 种基金the project from the Key Laboratory of Tectonics and Petroleum Resources(China University of Geosciences,Wuhan)(TPR-2022-22)the International Geoscience Programme(IGCP-675)。
文摘The Ordos Basin(OB)in the western part of the North China Craton(NCC),was located at the jointed area of multi-plates and has recorded the Mesozoic tectonic characteristics.Its tectonic evolution in the Mesozoic is significant to understand the tectonic transformation of the northern margin of the NCC.In this work,the detrital zircon and apatite(U-Th)/He chronological system were analyzed in the northern part of the OB,and have provided new evidence for the regional tectonic evolution.The(U-Th)/He chronological data states the weighted ages of 240‒235 Ma,141 Ma with the peak distribution of 244 Ma,219 Ma,173 Ma,147‒132 Ma.The thermal evolution,geochronological data,and regional unconformities have proved four stages of regional tectonic evolution for the OB and its surroundings in the Mesozoic:(1)The Late Permian-Early Triassic;(2)the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic;(3)the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous;(4)the Late Cretaceous-Early Paleogene.It is indicated that the multi-directional convergence from the surrounding tectonic units has controlled the Mesozoic tectonic evolution of the OB.Four-stage tectonic evolution reflected the activation or end of different plate movements and provided new time constraints for the regional tectonic evolution of the NCC in the Mesozoic.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars(No.42425107)Ecological Civilization Special Project of Key Research&and Development Program in Gansu Province(No.24YFFA009)the Top Talent Project of Gansu Province,Chinese Academy of Sciences Young Crossover Team Project(No.JCTD-2022-18)。
文摘The alpine ecosystem has great potential for carbon sequestration.Soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(TN)are highly sensitive to climate change,and their dynamics are crucial to revealing the effect of climate change on the structure,function,and services of the ecosystem.However,the spatial distribution and controlling factors of SOC and TN across various soil layers and vegetation types within this unique ecosystem remain inadequately understood.In this study,256 soil samples in 89 sites were collected from the Three River Headwaters Region(TRHR)in China to investigate SOC and TN and to explore the primary factors affecting their distribution,including soil,vegetation,climate,and geography factors.The results show that SOC and TN contents in 0-20,20-40,40-60,and 60-80 cm soil layers are 24.40,18.03,14.04,12.40 g/kg and 2.46,1.90,1.51,1.17 g/kg,respectively;with higher concentrations observed in the southeastern region compared to the northwest of the TRHR.One-way analysis of variance reveals that SOC and TN levels are elevated in the alpine meadow and the alpine shrub relative to the alpine steppe in the 0-60 cm soil layers.The structural equation model explores that soil water content is the main controlling factor affecting the variation of SOC and TN.Moreover,the geography,climate,and vegetation factors notably indirectly affect SOC and TN through soil factors.Therefore,it can effectively improve soil water and nutrient conditions through vegetation restoration,soil improvement,and grazing management,and the change of SOC and TN can be fully understood by establishing monitoring networks to better protect soil carbon and nitrogen.