Mechanical Modeling and Analysis of Stability Deterioration of Production Well During Marine Hydrate Depressurization Production

Different from oil and gas production,hydrate reservoirs are shallow and unconsolidated,whose mechanical properties deteriorate with hydrate decomposition.Therefore,the formations will undergo significant subsidence during depressurization,which will destroy the original force state of the production well.However,existing research on the stability of oil and gas production wells assumes the formation to be stable,and lacks consideration of the force exerted on the hydrate production well by formation subsidence caused by hydrate decomposition during production.To fill this gap,this paper proposes an analytical method for the dynamic evolution of the stability of hydrate production well considering the effects of hydrate decomposition.Based on the mechanical model of the production well,the basis for stability analysis has been proposed.A multi-field coupling model of the force state of the production well considering the effect of hydrate decomposition and formation subsidence is established,and a solver is developed.The analytical approach is verified by its good agreement with the results from the numerical method.A case study found that the decomposition of hydrate will increase the pulling-down force and reduce the supporting force,which is the main reason for the stability deterioration.The higher the initial hydrate saturation,the larger the reservoir thickness,and the lower the production pressure,the worse the stability or even instability.This work can provide a theoretical reference for the stability maintaining of the production well.

Upcycling plastic wastes into value-added products via electrocatalysis and photoelectrocatalysis

Plastic,renowned for its versatility,durability,and cost-effectiveness,is indispensable in modern society.Nevertheless,the annual production of nearly 400 million tons of plastic,coupled with a recycling rate of only 9%,has led to a monumental environmental crisis.Plastic recycling has emerged as a vital response to this crisis,offering sustainable solutions to mitigate its environmental impact.Among these recycling efforts,plastic upcycling has garnered attention,which elevates discarded plastics into higher-value products.Here,electrocatalytic and photoelectrocatalytic treatments stand at the forefront of advanced plastic upcycling.Electrocatalytic or photoelectrocatalytic treatments involve chemical reactions that facilitate electron transfer through the electrode/electrolyte interface,driven by electrical or solar energy,respectively.These methods enable precise control of chemical reactions,harnessing potential,current density,or light to yield valuable chemical products.This review explores recent progress in plastic upcycling through electrocatalytic and photoelectrocatalytic pathways,offering promising solutions to the plastic waste crisis and advancing sustainability in the plastics industry.

Quantifying the agreement and accuracy characteristics of four satellite-based LULC products for cropland classification in China

Various land use and land cover(LULC)products have been produced over the past decade with the development of remote sensing technology.Despite the differences in LULC classification schemes,there is a lack of research on assessing the accuracy of their application to croplands in a unified framework.Thus,this study evaluated the spatial and area accuracies of cropland classification for four commonly used global LULC products(i.e.,MCD12Q1V6,GlobCover2009,FROM-GLC and GlobeLand30)based on the harmonised FAO criterion,and quantified the relationships between four factors(i.e.,slope,elevation,field size and crop system)and cropland classification agreement.The validation results indicated that MCD12Q1 and GlobeLand30 performed well in cropland classification regarding spatial consistency,with overall accuracies of 94.90 and 93.52%,respectively.The FROMGLC showed the worst performance,with an overall accuracy of 83.17%.Overlaying the cropland generated by the four global LULC products,we found the proportions of complete agreement and disagreement were 15.51 and 44.72% for the cropland classification,respectively.High consistency was mainly observed in the Northeast China Plain,the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and the northern part of the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain,China.In contrast,low consistency was detected primarily on the eastern edge of the northern and semiarid region,the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and southern China.Field size was the most important factor for mapping cropland.For area accuracy,compared with China Statistical Yearbook data at the provincial scale,the accuracies of different products in descending order were:GlobeLand30,FROM-GLC,MCD12Q1,and GlobCover2009.The cropland classification schemes mainly caused large area deviations among the four products,and they also resulted in the different ranks of spatial accuracy and area accuracy among the four products.Our results can provide valuable suggestions for selecting cropland products at the national or provincial scale and help cropland mapping and reconstruction,which is essential for food security and crop management,so they can also contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals issued by the United Nations.

Single-base editing in IGF2 improves meat production and intramuscular fat deposition in Liang Guang Small Spotted pigs

Background Chinese indigenous pigs are popular with consumers for their juiciness,flavour and meat quality,but they have lower meat production.Insulin-like growth factor 2(IGF2) is a maternally imprinted growth factor that promotes skeletal muscle growth by regulating cell proliferation and differentiation.A single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) within intron 3 of porcine IGF2 disrupts a binding site for the repressor,zinc finger BED-type containing 6(ZBED6),leading to up-regulation of IGF2 and causing major effects on muscle growth,heart size,and backfat thickness.This favorable mutation is common in Western commercial pig populations,but absent in most Chinese indigenous pig breeds.To improve meat production of Chinese indigenous pigs,we used cytosine base editor 3(CBE3)to introduce IGF2 intron3-C3071T mutation into porcine embryonic fibroblasts(PEFs) isolated from a male Liang Guang Small Spotted pig(LGSS),and single-cell clones harboring the desired mutation were selected for somatic cell nuclear transfer(SCNT) to generate the founder line of IGF2^(T/T) pigs.Results We found the heterozygous progeny IGF2^(C/T) pigs exhibited enhanced expression of IGF2,increased lean meat by 18%-36%,enlarged loin muscle area by 3%-17%,improved intramuscular fat(IMF) content by 18%-39%,marbling score by 0.75-1,meat color score by 0.53-1.25,and reduced backfat thickness by 5%-16%.The enhanced accumulation of intramuscular fat in IGF2^(C/T) pigs was identified to be regulated by the PI3K-AKT/AMPK pathway,which activated SREBP1 to promote adipogenesis.Conclusions We demonstrated the introduction of IGF2-intron3-C3071T in Chinese LGSS can improve both meat production and quality,and first identified the regulation of IMF deposition by IGF2 through SREBP1 via the PI3KAKT/AMPK signaling pathways.Our study provides a further understanding of the biological functions of IGF2and an example for improving porcine economic traits through precise base editing.

Simulation of the Ecosystem Productivity Responses to Aerosol Diffuse Radiation Fertilization Effects over the Pan-Arctic during 2001–19

The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.

Effects of Maillard reaction and its product AGEs on aging and age-related diseases

Maillard reaction(MR)is a non-enzymatic browning reaction commonly seen in food processing,which occurs between reducing sugars and compounds with amino groups.Despite certain advantages based on Maillard reaction products(MRPs)found in some food for health and storage application have appeared,however,the MR occurring in human physiological environment can produce advanced glycation end products(AGEs)by non-enzymatic modification of macromolecules such as proteins,lipids and nucleic acid,which could change the structure and functional activity of the molecules themselves.In this review,we take AGEs as our main object,on the one hand,discuss physiologic aging,that is,age-dependent covalent cross-linking and modification of proteins such as collagen that occur in eyes and skin containing connective tissue.On the other hand,pathological aging associated with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases,neurodegenerative diseases,diabetes and diabetic nephropathy,cardiovascular diseases and bone degenerative diseases have been mainly proposed.Based on the series of adverse effects of accelerated aging and disease pathologies caused by MRPs,the possible harm caused by some MR can be slowed down or inhibited by artificial drug intervention,dietary pattern and lifestyle control.It also stimulates people's curiosity to continue to explore the potential link between the MR and human aging and health,which should be paid more attention to for the development of life sciences.

Product quality prediction based on RBF optimized by firefly algorithm

With the development of information technology,a large number of product quality data in the entire manufacturing process is accumulated,but it is not explored and used effectively.The traditional product quality prediction models have many disadvantages,such as high complexity and low accuracy.To overcome the above problems,we propose an optimized data equalization method to pre-process dataset and design a simple but effective product quality prediction model:radial basis function model optimized by the firefly algorithm with Levy flight mechanism(RBFFALM).First,the new data equalization method is introduced to pre-process the dataset,which reduces the dimension of the data,removes redundant features,and improves the data distribution.Then the RBFFALFM is used to predict product quality.Comprehensive expe riments conducted on real-world product quality datasets validate that the new model RBFFALFM combining with the new data pre-processing method outperforms other previous me thods on predicting product quality.

Enhanced photocatalytic hydrogen production of S-scheme TiO_(2)/g-C_(3)N_(4)heterojunction loaded with single-atom Ni

S-scheme heterostructure photocatalysts can achieve highly efficient solar energy utilization.Here,singleatom Ni species were deposited onto TiO_(2)/g-C_(3)N_(4)(TCN)composite photocatalyst with an S-scheme het-erojunction for highly efficient photocatalytic water splitting to produce hydrogen.Under solar irradiation,it realized the hydrogen production activity of 134μmol g^(-1)h^(-1),about 5 times higher than the TCN without atomic Ni.Insitu Kelvin probe force microscopy characterization and the density functional cal-culation certify that by forming the S-scheme heterojunction,the photo-excited electrons from the TiO_(2)combine with the photogenerated holes at the coupled g-C_(3)N_(4)driven by a built-in electric field.More importantly,the single-atom Ni species stabilized the photogenerated electrons from the g-C_(3)N_(4)could effectively enhance the charge separation between the holes on the valence band of TiO_(2)and electrons at the conduction band of g-C_(3)N_(4).Meanwhile,the Ni atoms act as the surface catalytic centers for the water reduction reaction,which greatly improves the reactivity of the photocatalyst.The present work provides a new approach for developing noble metal-free heterojunctions for high-efficiency photocatalysis.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

The Performance of Downward Shortwave Radiation Products from Satellite and Reanalysis over the Transect of Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

The downward shortwave radiation(DSR) is an important part of the Earth's energy balance, driving Earth's system's energy, water, and carbon cycles. Due to the harsh Antarctic environment, the accuracy of DSR derived from satellite and reanalysis has not been systematically evaluated over the transect of Zhongshan station to Dome A, East Antarctica.Therefore, this study aims to evaluate DSR reanalysis products(ERA5-Land, ERA5, MERRA-2) and satellite products(CERES and ICDR) in this area. The results indicate that DSR exhibits obvious monthly and seasonal variations, with higher values in summer than in winter. The ERA5-Land(ICDR) DSR product demonstrated the highest(lowest) accuracy,as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.988(0.918), a root-mean-square error of 23.919(69.383) W m^(–2), a mean bias of –1.667(–28.223) W m^(–2) and a mean absolute error of 13.37(58.99) W m^(–2). The RMSE values for the ERA5-Land reanalysis product at seven stations, namely Zhongshan, Panda 100, Panda 300, Panda 400, Taishan, Panda 1100, and Kunlun, were 30.938, 29.447, 34.507, 29.110, 20.339, 17.267, and 14.700 W m^(-2), respectively;with corresponding bias values of 9.887, –12.159, –19.181, –15.519, –8.118, 6.297, and 3.482 W m^(–2). Regarding seasonality, ERA5-Land, ERA5,and MERRA-2 reanalysis products demonstrate higher accuracies during spring and summer, while ICDR products are least accurate in autumn. Cloud cover, water vapor, total ozone, and severe weather are the main factors affecting DSR. The error of DSR products is greatest in coastal areas(particularly at the Zhongshan station) and decreases towards the inland areas of Antarctica.

Enhancing production monitoring: A back allocation methodology to estimate well flow rates and assist well test scheduling

Production flow rates are crucial to make operational decisions,monitor,manage,and optimize oil and gas fields.Flow rates also have a financial importance to correctly allocate production to fiscal purposes required by regulatory agencies or to allocate production in fields owned by multiple operators.Despite its significance,usually only the total field production is measured in real time,which requires an alternative way to estimate wells'production.To address these challenges,this work presents a back allocation methodology that leverages real-time instrumentation,simulations,algorithms,and mathe-matical programming modeling to enhance well monitoring and assist in well test scheduling.The methodology comprises four modules:simulation,classification,error calculation,and optimization.These modules work together to characterize the flowline,wellbore,and reservoir,verify simulation outputs,minimize errors,and calculate flow rates while honoring the total platform flow rate.The well status generated through the classification module provides valuable information about the current condition of each well(i.e.if the well is deviating from the latest well test parameters),aiding in decision-making for well testing scheduling and prioritizing.The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated through its application to a representative offshore oil field with 14 producing wells and two years of daily production data.The results highlight the robustness of the methodology in properly classifying the wells and obtaining flow rates that honor the total platform flow rate.Furthermore,the methodology supports well test scheduling and provides reliable indicators for well conditions.By uti-lizing real-time data and advanced modeling techniques,this methodology enhances production monitoring and facilitates informed operational decision-making in the oil and gas industry.

Evolving patterns of agricultural production space in China:A network-based approach

The agricultural production space,as where and how much each agricultural product grows,plays a vital role in meeting the increasing and diverse food demands.Previous studies on agricultural production patterns have predominantly centered on individual or specific crop types,using methods such as remote sensing or statistical metrological analysis.In this study,we characterize the agricultural production space(APS)by bipartite network connecting agricultural products and provinces,to reveal the relatedness between diverse agricultural products and the spatiotemporal characteristic of provincial production capabilities in China.The results show that core products are cereal,pork,melon,and pome fruit;meanwhile the milk,grape,and fiber crop show an upward trend in centrality,which is in line with diet structure changes in China over the past decades.The little changes in community components and structures of agricultural products and provinces reveal that agricultural production patterns in China are relatively stable.Additionally,identified provincial communities closely resemble China's agricultural natural zones.Furthermore,the observed growth in production capabilities in North and Northeast China implies their potential focus areas for future agricultural production.Despite the superior production capa-bilities of southern provinces,recent years have witnessed a notable decline,warranting special attentions.The findings provide a comprehensive perspective for understanding the complex relationship of agricultural prod-ucts'relatedness,production capabilities and production patterns,which serve as a reference for the agricultural spatial optimization and agricultural sustainable development.

Optimization of Gas Production from Hydrate-Bearing Sediments with Fluctuation Characteristics

As an important source of low-carbon,clean fossil energy,natural gas hydrate plays an important role in improving the global energy consumption structure.Developing the hydrate industry in the South China Sea is important to achieving‘carbon peak and carbon neutrality’goals as soon as possible.Deep-water areas subjected to the action of long-term stress and tectonic movement have developed complex and volatile terrains,and as such,the morphologies of hydrate-bearing sediments(HBSs)fluctuate correspondingly.The key to numerically simulating HBS morphologies is the establishment of the conceptual model,which represents the objective and real description of the actual geological body.However,current numerical simulation models have characterized HBSs into horizontal strata without considering the fluctuation characteristics.Simply representing the HBS as a horizontal element reduces simulation accuracy.Therefore,the commonly used horizontal HBS model and a model considering the HBS’s fluctuation characteristics with the data of the SH2 site in the Shenhu Sea area were first constructed in this paper.Then,their production behaviors were compared,and the huge impact of the fluctuation characteristics on HBS production was determined.On this basis,the key parameters affecting the depressurization production of the fluctuating HBSs were studied and optimized.The research results show that the fluctuation characteristics have an obvious influence on the hydrate production of HBSs by affecting their temperatures and pressure distributions,as well as the transmission of the pressure drop and methane gas discharge.Furthermore,the results show that the gas productivity of fluctuating HBSs was about 5%less than that of horizontal HBSs.By optimizing the depressurization amplitude,well length,and layout location of vertical wells,the productivity of fluctuating HBSs increased by about 56.6%.

Influence of Production Factors on the Physico-Chemical Characteristics of Fermented Cassava Dough and Sensory Evaluation of Attieke

Attieke is an Ivorian semolina which obtained by fermenting, pressing and steaming cassava dough. Attieke production remains a traditional activity carried out by less literate women. However, perceived differences in measurable factors and attieke qualities require an investigation of their influence on the characteristics of the pressed dough and attieke. The aim of this study is to improve the quality of the dough in relation to that of the attieke produced. The experiment was carried out on 4 production factors, namely the type of boiled or braised ferment, the incorporation rate of the ferment between 8 and 10%, the addition of oil from 0.1 to 1% and the fermentation time from 12 to 15 hours applied to the Improved African Cassava (IAC) variety. A complete experiment design of 16 samples of fermented dough and attieke was employed. These samples underwent physic-chemical analyses for the fermented dough and sensory evaluation for the attieke. It was found that, except for titratable acidity, reducing sugar content and ash content, the physico-chemical characteristics of the dough of IAC variety were significantly influenced by all production factors and their interaction. Fermentation time significantly influences 60% of the physico-chemical characteristics of the fermented dough. The type of ferment, the oil addition and the ferment rate have a significant influence at 40% of these characteristics. At the sensory level, color, acidity and grain binding with an explained variance of 34.60% were essential for the appreciation of the attieke samples. Thus, these production factors could be considered for the improvement of the fermented dough and attieke production process.

Short Communication: Enhancing the Drying Process of Microbial-Based Products with a Dehumidifier

The development of microbial-based products requires certain criteria for them to be successfully commercialized. The product must meet the following desirable criteria: effectiveness, contamination free, stability, cost-effectiveness, and a prolonged shelf life. Controlling the drying process is crucial for ensuring the stability and durability of the product. The traditional approach, which involved mechanical and natural drying, led to decreased productivity and quality. The objective of this research endeavour was to achieve a dry process enhancement while preserving the microbial quality of Trichoderma asperellum (M103). The temperature and relative humidity during the drying period were monitored under two conditions: with and without a dehumidifier. The results demonstrate that the dehumidifier increases drying period efficiency by up to 63%.

DNA G-Quadruplexes as Targets for Natural Product Drug Discovery

DNA guanine(G)-quadruplexes(G4s)are unique secondary structures formed by two or more stacked Gtetrads in G-rich DNA sequences.These structures have been found to play a crucial role in highly transcribed genes,especially in cancer-related oncogenes,making them attractive targets for cancer therapeutics.Significantly,targeting oncogene promoter G4 structures has emerged as a promising strategy to address the challenge of undruggable and drug-resistant proteins,such as MYC,BCL2,KRAS,and EGFR.Natural products have long been an important source of drug discovery,particularly in the fields of cancer and infectious diseases.Noteworthy progress has recently been made in the discovery of naturally occurring DNA G4-targeting drugs.Numerous DNA G4s,such as MYC-G4,BCL2-G4,KRAS-G4,PDGFR-b-G4,VEGF-G4,and telomeric-G4,have been identified as potential targets of natural products,including berberine,telomestatin,quindoline,sanguinarine,isaindigotone,and many others.Herein,we summarize and evaluate recent advancements in natural and nature-derived DNA G4 binders,focusing on understanding the structural recognition of DNA G4s by small molecules derived from nature.We also discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with developing drugs that target DNA G4s.

Euler Product Expressions of Absolute Tensor Products of Dirichlet L-Functions

In this paper, we calculate the absolute tensor square of the Dirichlet L-functions and show that it is expressed as an Euler product over pairs of primes. The method is to construct an equation to link primes to a series which has the factors of the absolute tensor product of the Dirichlet L-functions. This study is a generalization of Akatsuka’s theorem on the Riemann zeta function, and gives a proof of Kurokawa’s prediction proposed in 1992.

Tea Production Response to Seasonal Rainfall Variability: Evidence from Rwanda

Tea is a very important cash crop in Rwanda, as it provides crucial income and employment for farmers in poor rural areas. From 2017 to 2020, this study was intended to determine the impact of seasonal rainfall on tea output in Rwanda while still considering temperature, plot size (land), and fertiliser for tea plantations in three of Rwanda’s western, southern, and northern provinces, western province with “Gisovu” and “Nyabihu”, southern with “Kitabi”, and northern with “Mulindi” tea company. The study tested the level of statistical significance of all considered variables in different formulation of panel data models to assess individual behaviour of independent variables that would affect tea production. According to this study, a positive change in rainfall of 1 mm will increase tea production by 0.215 percentage points of tons of fresh leaves. Rainfall is a statistically significant variable among all variables with a positive impact on tea output Qitin Rwanda’s Western, Southern, and Northern provinces. Rainfall availability favourably affects tea output and supports our claim. Therefore, there is a need for collaboration efforts towards developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation options against climate change, targeting tea farming and the government to ensure that tea policy reforms are targeted towards raising the competitiveness of Rwandan tea at local and global market.

Gas-Water Production of a Continental Tight-Sandstone Gas Reservoir under Different Fracturing Conditions

A numerical model of hydraulic fracture propagation is introduced for a representative reservoir(Yuanba continental tight sandstone gas reservoir in Northeast Sichuan).Different parameters are considered,i.e.,the interlayer stress difference,the fracturing discharge rate and the fracturing fluid viscosity.The results show that these factors affect the gas and water production by influencing the fracture size.The interlayer stress difference can effectively control the fracture height.The greater the stress difference,the smaller the dimensionless reconstruction volume of the reservoir,while the flowback rate and gas production are lower.A large displacement fracturing construction increases the fracture-forming efficiency and expands the fracture size.The larger the displacement of fracturing construction,the larger the dimensionless reconstruction volume of the reservoir,and the higher the fracture-forming efficiency of fracturing fluid,the flowback rate,and the gas production.Low viscosity fracturing fluid is suitable for long fractures,while high viscosity fracturing fluid is suitable for wide fractures.With an increase in the fracturing fluid viscosity,the dimensionless reconstruction volume and flowback rate of the reservoir display a non-monotonic behavior,however,their changes are relatively small.

A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning,this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production.In this new method,the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period.It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model(VPM),with precision of 80%e95%,which is 6.6%e13.2%higher than that of other life cycle models.Furthermore,a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin,with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6%and 3%respectively.The new method can be used to guide the medium-and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development.It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.