A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Salinity effect-induced ENSO amplitude modulation in association with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.

Spatial compartmentalization and temporal stability of associated microbiota in Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas

The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas,one of the most exploited molluscs in the world,has suffered from massive mortality in recent decades,and the occurrence mechanisms have not been well characterized.In this study,to reveal the relationship of associated microbiota to the fitness of oysters,temporal dynamics of microbiota in the gill,hemolymph,and hepatopancreas of C.gigas during April 2018-January 2019 were investigated by 16 S rRNA gene sequencing.The microbiota in C.gigas exhibited tissue heterogeneity,of which Spirochaetaceae was dominant in the gill and hemolymph while Mycoplasmataceae enriched in the hepatopancreas.Co-occurrence network demonstrated that the gill microbiota exhibited higher inter-taxon connectivity while the hemolymph microbiota had more modules.The richness(Chao 1 index)and diversity(Shannon index)of microbial community in each tissue showed no significant seasonal variations,except for the hepatopancreas having a higher richness in the autumn.Similarly,beta diversity analysis indicated a relatively stable microbiota in each tissue during the sampling period,showing relative abundance of the dominant taxa exhibiting temporal dynamics.Results indicate that the microbial community in C.gigas showed a tissue-specific stability with temporal dynamics in the composition,which might be essential for the tissue functioning and environmental adaption in oysters.This work provides a baseline microbiota in C.gigas and is helpful for the understanding of host-microbiota interaction in oysters.

Responses of the Southern Ocean mixed layer depth to the eastern and central Pacific El Niño events during austral winter

Based on the Ocean Reanalysis System version 5(ORAS5)and the fifth-generation reanalysis datasets derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5),we investigate the different impacts of the central Pacific(CP)El Niño and the eastern Pacific(EP)El Niño on the Southern Ocean(SO)mixed layer depth(MLD)during austral winter.The MLD response to the EP El Niño shows a dipole pattern in the South Pacific,namely the MLD dipole,which is the leading El Niño-induced MLD variability in the SO.The tropical Pacific warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)signal associated with the EP El Niño excites a Rossby wave train propagating southeastward and then enhances the Amundsen Sea low(ASL).This results in an anomalous cyclone over the Amundsen Sea.As a result,the anomalous southerly wind to the west of this anomalous cyclone advects colder and drier air into the southeast of New Zealand,leading to surface cooling through less total surface heat flux,especially surface sensible heat(SH)flux and latent heat(LH)flux,and thus contributing to the mix layer(ML)deepening.The east of the anomalous cyclone brings warmer and wetter air to the southwest of Chile,but the total heat flux anomaly shows no significant change.The warm air promotes the sea ice melting and maintains fresh water,which strengthens stratification.This results in a shallower MLD.During the CP El Niño,the response of MLD shows a separate negative MLD anomaly center in the central South Pacific.The Rossby wave train triggered by the warm SSTA in the central Pacific Ocean spreads to the Amundsen Sea,which weakens the ASL.Therefore,the anomalous anticyclone dominates the Amundsen Sea.Consequently,the anomalous northerly wind to the west of anomalous anticyclone advects warmer and wetter air into the central and southern Pacific,causing surface warming through increased SH,LH,and longwave radiation flux,and thus contributing to the ML shoaling.However,to the east of the anomalous anticyclone,there is no statistically significant impact on the MLD.

Non-Targeted Metabolomics Reveals the Metabolic Alterations in Response to Artificial Selective Breeding in the Fast-Growing Strains of Pacific Oyster

Pacific oyster(Crassostrea gigas)is one of the most important mollusks cultured all around the world.Selective breeding programs of Pacific oysters in China is initiated since 2006 and developed the genetically improved strain with fast-growing trait.However,little is known about the metabolic signatures of the fast-growing trait.In the present study,the non-targeted metabolomics was performed to analyze the metabolic signatures of adductor muscle tissue in one-year old Pacific oysters from fast-growing strain and the wild population.A total of 7767 and 10174 valid peaks were extracted and quantified in ESI^(+)and ESI^(−)modes,resulting in 399 and 381 annotated metabolites,respectively.PCA and OPLS-DA revealed that considerable separation among samples from fastgrowing strain and wild population,suggesting the differences in metabolic signatures.Meanwhile,81 significantly different metabolites(SDMs)were identified in the comparisons between fast-growing strain and wild population,based on the strict thresholds.It was found that there were highly correlation and conserved coordination among these SDMs.KEGG enrichment analysis indicated that the SDMs were tightly related to pantothenate and CoA biosynthesis,steroid hormone biosynthesis,riboflavin metabolism,and arginine and proline metabolism.Of them,the CoA biosynthesis and metabolism,affected by pantetheine and pantothenic acid,might be important for the growth of Pacific oysters under artificial selective breeding.The study provides the comprehensive views of metabolic signatures in response to artificially selective breeding,and is helpful to better understand the molecular mechanism of fastgrowing traits in Pacific oysters.

Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific.Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks.The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge.The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train.MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns.The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Antarctic surface air temperature during 1900 to 2015

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.

Westward extension of summer atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific after the 1990s

本文研究了20世纪90年代前后夏季北太平洋大气环流(NPcirculation)向西扩展,并探讨了其可能的原因.结果表明,在1961-1983年期间NP中心主要位于东北太平洋,而在1994-2016年期间NP中心发生西移,至北太平洋中部进一步分析指出,90年代以后NP活动中心的西移和春季中纬度北太平洋海温(SST_NP)与NP关系的加强有关.春季SST_NP异常通过引起后期夏季北太平洋中部地表热通量(即感热通量和潜热通量)和垂直运动异常,有利于NP活动中心向西移动,此外,20世纪90年代以后,北太平洋中部海平面气压的年际变率增加,这可能是NP向西扩展的另一原因。

A teleconnection pattern of upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the Eurasian continent associated with the interannual variability of atmospheric convection over the tropical western North Pacific in July

热带西北太平洋大气对流的年际变化对东亚夏季气候有着显著影响,而且受到前冬ENSO的影响.然而,还有相当多的西北太平洋对流年际变化不能由前冬ENSO解释.本文表明,7月西北太平洋对流受到欧亚大陆对流层上层遥相关型的显著影响,且这一影响与前冬ENSO的影响程度相当.该遥相关型表现为位于欧洲的气旋式环流异常,中亚的反气旋式环流异常和东亚带状延伸的气旋式环流异常,并表现为7月对流层上层环流的第一主模态.基于本文的结果并结合前人的研究,作者认为这一遥相关型能通过亚洲急流出口区附近的罗斯贝波破碎引起西北太平洋对流异常.

Results Analysis of Surveys Made to Stakeholders in the Pacific Ports in the Panama Canal:A Study Focused to Improve the Efficiency of Loading/Discharging Operations

This research aims to analyze the communication process between the different participating actors in the port of Balboa,in the Panamanian Pacific.The starting hypothesis begins with the normal operation of the port itself.Considering which strategic actions have potential development and which specific strategic actions are proposed for their improvement,the article begins with a discussion of the nature of ports in Panama and their relationships with the Panama Canal,followed by a literary review of all the effects that climate change may have on navigation on the Panamanian Pacific coast.Next,the implication between the coordination and cooperation between the port,the Panama Canal pilots,and the other actors involved with the arrival and departure of vessels from the port will be analyzed.In a third part,the results of the perception of a significant sample of these actors who were surveyed,which are related to the process,are presented.The document concludes with recommendations on how the Panamanian Pacific port can improve its individual interests through the application of improvements derived from the results of the surveys,for more efficient inter-institutional coordination and cooperation.

Impacts of monsoon break events in the western North Pacific on the cross-equatorial flows over the Maritime Continent

本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料,探讨了1979-2020年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响.合成结果表明,西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高,低空越赤道气流减弱,即高层南风异常,低层北风异常,与此相关的环流异常表现为西北太平洋高层气旋,低层反气旋的斜压结构。特别的是,西北太平洋季风中断对高空越赤道气流的影响更为显著,92%的季风中断事件都导致高空越赤道气流减弱,而只有70%的事件造成低空越赤道气流减弱,这是由于低空越赤道气流同时还受到赤道中东太平洋海温异常的调控.

Application of Argo Data in the Analysis of Water Masses in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The temperature and salinity distributions, and the water mass structures in Northwest Pacific Ocean are studied using the temperature and salinity data obtained by Argo profiling floats. The T-S relation in this region indicates there exist 8 water masses, they are the North Pacific Tropical Surface Water （NPTSW）, North P, acific Subsurface Water （NPSSW）, North Pacific Intermediate Water （NPIW）, North Pacific Subtropical Water （NPSTW）, North Pacific Deep Water （NPDW） and Equatorial Surface Water （ESW）, and the South Pacific Subsurface Water （SPSSW） and South Pacific Intermediate Water （SPIW）.

The Catch Distribution of Ommastrephes batramii in Squid Jigging Fishery and the Relationship between Fishing Ground and SST in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004

Neon flying squid Ommastrephes batramii is widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean, which has become the main fishing species for Chinese squid jigging fleets since 1993. Many authors have made the studies on the fields of fishing ground and its environment conditions. However, the squid catch per fishing vessel attained the highest level of about 550 t in 2004. In this paper, the catch and its distribution in 2004 would be compared with the previous year. Based on the catch data from Chinese squid jigging vessels and sea surface temperature with the format of 1 °latitude by 1 °longitude from May to November in 2004, the distribution maps were drawn by Marine explorer 4.0. The results show that the production in the east waters to 160°E was low during May and July. During October and November, the production in the waters from 150°E to 160°E was relatively higher, which occupied 62.5 percent of the total catch. During November, the production in the west waters to 150°E was also low. The highest CPUE area located in the west waters to 150°E, the next was the area from 150°E to 160°E and the lowest CPUE area located in the east waters to 160°E. The SST in the fishing ground seems to change seasonally. The suitable SST for each month is as follows： 12-14 ℃ in May, 15 ℃ - 16 ℃ in June, 14 ℃ - 16 ℃ in July, 18 ℃ - 19 ℃ in August, 16 ℃ -17 ℃ in September, 15 ℃- 16 ℃ in October and 12 ℃ - 13 ℃ in November. The result of K-S test shows that the above monthly suitable SST is considered as the indicator of looking for the main fishing ground.

ASTORIA-PACIFIC 连续流式荧光分析仪的维护保养

目的:探讨ASTORIA-PACIFIC连续流式荧光分析仪维护和保养的方法。方法:对仪器进行检测前、检测中、检测后全程维护,打破传统仪器的每日、每周、每月的维护周期和保养模式,并加强日常保养,缩短保养周期。结果:通过日常精心地维护保养,确保仪器始终处于良好的运行状态,延长仪器及其零部件的使用寿命,及时准确地报告检测结果,节约了试剂,大大提高了工作效率。结论:此方法对仪器的维护和保养适用可行,值得推广。

Characteristics of Semi-diurnal Internal Tides in the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean Around 1°45′S,156°E

The analyses of a data series obtained during TOGA- COARE show the existence of remarkable semi-diurnal intemal tides in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean around 1°45＇S, 156°E. Some characteristic parameters of the internal tides are vertical wavenumber -1.6×10^-3 m^-1, horizontal wavenumber （wavelength） 3.3×10^-2 km^-1 （210 km）, vertical propagation speed -3.8 cm/s and horizontal propagation speed 2.0 m/s. The waveforms propagate downwards slantingly, that is, the wave energy transfers upwards slantingly. Depth-distribution of the＇rotary spectral levels is a saddle-shape. The depths of the trough and the deeper peaks are almost coincident with those of the south boundaries of the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent, respectively. The mean orientation of the rotary spectral ellipse changes with depth： 30° from north to east at 40 m, and changes into 14° from east to south at 324 m, and generally, it points to northeastward, which indicates ＂that waves come from the southwest.

Simulation of Pacific Ocean Circulations Based on Global Warming from 1960 to 1999

The Pacific Ocean circulations were simulated based on the global warming from 1960 to 1999 by using the Non-Boussinesq POP model and the data of wind stress and temperature at 1 000 hPa from the NCEP. The results show that the circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean was weakening during the past 40 years. The heat transported to the tropical western Pacific Ocean coast by the north equatorial current and the heat transported to middle and high latitudes in the southem hemisphere by the south equatorial current decreased with time due to the global warming, while the heat transported to middle and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere by the north equatorial current increased with time due to the global warming.

国内外医药期刊载文及被引用情况对比及分析——以《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》与《PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases》为例

《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》是中国唯一一本被美国科学引文索引(SCI)数据库收录的全英文版热带医药期刊。文章通过Web of Science数据库对《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》2008-2012年载文及被引用情况进行了统计,并与国际热带医药杂志《PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases》进行比较。结果显示,《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》与《PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases》在IF值、载文量、被引总频次、每项平均引用次数、h指数等各方面都存在显著差距,杂志需不断加强组稿,完善审稿评议流程,缩短出版周期,建立出版后信息反馈制度,以提高杂志的学术质量和国际影响力。

Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor and Coherent Climate Anomalies in Post-ENSO Summer: A Review

ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone （AAC） is a recurrent pattern in post-E1 Nifio summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean- atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor （IPOC） effect explains why E1 Nifio stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.