Inverse reliability analysis and design for tunnel face stability considering soil spatial variability

The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.

Preliminary analysis of reactivity reconstruction capability based on inverse kinetics method under different initial reactivity states

Online reactivity monitoring plays an important role in operation and safety analyses of fission reactor systems. The inverse kinetics method, which is based on a point kinetics model, is the most widely used method for reactivity reconstruction of critical water reactors. However, this method is seldom applied to the reactivity reconstruction of subcritical reactors. In this study, an inverse kinetics method was employed for the reactivity reconstruction of a lead-based reactor under different initial reactivity states(ρ_0= 0,-2786,-5486,-8367, and-12,371 pcm). The results showed that the deviation in the reactivity of the lead-based subcritical reactor was greater when ρ_0 became smaller. The reactivity reconstructed using the inverse kinetics method was globally underestimated. At a given reactivity perturbation, the relative and absolute errors increased with the decrease in the initial reactivity. At a given initial reactivity, with the increase in the reactivity perturbation, the absolute error increased, whereas the relative error remained the same.This deviation is due to the variation in the external neutron source, spatial-spectral effects, and sub-diffusive effects, which require further study.

Inverse displacement analysis of the general six degree-of-freedom serial robot based on optimization method

The paper presents a new solution of inverse displacement analysis of the general six degree-of-freedom serial robot.The inverse displacement analysis of the general serial robot is transformed into a minimization problem and then the optimization method is adopted to solve the nonlinear least squares problem with the analytic form of new Jacobian matrix.In this way,joint variables of the general serial robot can be searched out quickly under the desired precision when positions of the three non-collinear end effector points are given.Compared with the general Newton iterative method,the proposed algorithm can search out the solution when the robot is at the singular configuration and the initial configuration used in the optimization method may also be the singular configuration.So the convergence domain is bigger than that of the general Newton iterative method.Another advantage of the proposed algorithm is that positions of the three non-collinear end effector points are usually much easier to be measured than the orientation of the end effector.The inverse displacement analysis of the general 6R(six-revolute-joint) serial robot is illustrated as an example and the simulation results verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.Because the three non-collinear points can be selected at random,the method can be applied to any other types of serial robots.

Sensitivity and inverse analysis methods for parameter intervals

This paper proposes a sensitivity analysis method for engineering parameters using interval analyses.This method substantially extends the application of interval analysis method.In this scheme,parameter intervals and decision-making target intervals are determined using the interval analysis method.As an example,an inverse analysis method for uncertainty is presented.The intervals of unknown parameters can be obtained by sampling measured data.Even for limited measured data,robust results can also be obtained with the inverse analysis method,which can be intuitively evaluated by the uncertainty expressed in terms of an interval.For complex nonlinear problems,an iteratively optimized inverse analysis model is proposed.In a given set of loose parameter intervals,all the unknown parameter intervals that satisfy the measured information can be obtained by an iteratively optimized inverse analysis model.The influences of measured precisions and the number of parameters on the results of the inverse analysis are evaluated.Finally,the uniqueness of the interval inverse analysis method is discussed.

An Effective Meshless Approach for Inverse Cauchy Problems in 2D and 3D Electroelastic Piezoelectric Structures

In the past decade,notable progress has been achieved in the development of the generalized finite difference method(GFDM).The underlying principle of GFDM involves dividing the domain into multiple sub-domains.Within each sub-domain,explicit formulas for the necessary partial derivatives of the partial differential equations(PDEs)can be obtained through the application of Taylor series expansion and moving-least square approximation methods.Consequently,the method generates a sparse coefficient matrix,exhibiting a banded structure,making it highly advantageous for large-scale engineering computations.In this study,we present the application of the GFDM to numerically solve inverse Cauchy problems in two-and three-dimensional piezoelectric structures.Through our preliminary numerical experiments,we demonstrate that the proposed GFDMapproach shows great promise for accurately simulating coupled electroelastic equations in inverse problems,even with 3%errors added to the input data.

Inverse analysis of laboratory data and observations for evaluation of backward erosion piping process

An inverse analysis procedure has been developed to interpret collected pore pressure data and observations during backward erosion piping(BEP)initiation and progression in sandy soils.The procedure has been applied to laboratory models designed to mimic the initiation and progression of BEP through a constricted vertical outlet.The inverse analysis uses three-dimensional(3D)finite element method(FEM)to successively produce models of the hydraulic head regime surrounding progressive stages of BEP based on observations at the sample surface and pore pressure measurements obtained from the laboratory models.The inverse analysis results in a series of 3D contour plots that represent the hydraulic-head regime at each stage of the BEP development,allowing for assessing the development of BEP mechanism as well as calculating the critical hydraulic conditions required for various BEP stages to initiate and progress.Interpretation of the results identified four significant stages of the piping process:(1)loosened zone initiation,(2)channel initiation and progression,(3)riser sand fluidization,and(4)loosened zone progression.Interpretation of the hydraulic head contour plots allows assessment of the critical hydraulic gradients needed to initiate and progress various components of the BEP development.

Explicit Iterative Methods of Second Order and Approximate Inverse Preconditioners for Solving Complex Computational Problems

Explicit Exact and Approximate Inverse Preconditioners for solving complex linear systems are introduced. A class of general iterative methods of second order is presented and the selection of iterative parameters is discussed. The second order iterative methods behave quite similar to first order methods and the development of efficient preconditioners for solving the original linear system is a decisive factor for making the second order iterative methods superior to the first order iterative methods. Adaptive preconditioned Conjugate Gradient methods using explicit approximate preconditioners for solving efficiently large sparse systems of algebraic equations are also presented. The generalized Approximate Inverse Matrix techniques can be efficiently used in conjunction with explicit iterative schemes leading to effective composite semi-direct solution methods for solving large linear systems of algebraic equations.

Generalized Method of Variational Analysis for 3-D Flow

The generalized method of variational analysis (GMVA) suggested for 2-D wind observations by Huang et al. is extended to 3-D cases. Just as in 2-D cases, the regularization idea is applied. But due to the complexity of the 3-D cases, the vertical vorticity is taken as a stable functional. The results indicate that wind observations can be both variationally optimized and ?ltered. The e?ciency of GMVA is also checked in a numerical test. Finally, 3-D wind observations with random disturbances are manipulated by GMVA after being ?ltered.

AN ADAPTIVE ALGORITHM OF PRECISE INTEGRATION FOR TRANSIENT ANALYSIS

This paper presents an improved precise integration algorithm fortransient analysis of heat transfer and some other problems. Theoriginal precise integration method is improved by means of the inve-rse accuracy analysis so that the parameter N, which has been takenas a constant and an independent pa- rameter without consideration ofthe problems in the original method, can be generated automaticallyby the algorithm itself.

基于重加权L1的ATpV正则化叠前反演方法

地震叠前反演能够准确获取地下储层介质的各类参数,是油气的勘探与开发中重要技术之一。然而,地震反演是典型的病态问题,为了克服此问题,通常使用正则化约束目标函数,来减轻反演问题的病态性。但是正则化约束忽略了地层边界的振幅信息,使用重加权方法可以很好地克服这一问题,更好地恢复稀疏性。提出了一种基于重加权L1的ATpV正则化叠前三参数反演方法(ATpV-L1方法),首次将重加权L1方法与ATpV方法结合,并引入到叠前反演中。采用交替方向乘子算法(ADMM)建立反演框架,对目标函数进行分块优化,有效提高了收敛速度。首先,介绍ATpV-L1方法,建立了基于ATpV-L1的叠前反演目标函数;然后,应用理论模拟数据对比新方法和ATpV方法反演结果,验证了方法的效果;最后,使用实际数据进行实验分析,进一步验证了ATpV-L1方法的反演精度及可行性。实验结果表明,提出的ATpV-L1方法可以有效恢复反演结果的稀疏性,提高反演精度。

浅埋无中导洞连拱隧道先行洞衬砌承担围岩荷载确定方法

不同于常规隧道衬砌结构,无中导洞连拱隧道先行洞衬砌施作稳定后还要受到邻近后行洞开挖的二次扰动,后行洞开挖对先行洞衬砌受力的影响不可忽视。依托杨家寨公路隧道工程,基于考虑了后行洞开挖影响的隧道围岩压力计算方法,结合现场监测位移数据采用荷载-结构法进行位移反分析,提出了一种确定浅埋无中导洞连拱隧道先行洞衬砌承担围岩荷载的方法,最后和衬砌背后围岩荷载现场监测值进行对比验证。研究结果表明:后行洞开挖对先行洞衬砌承担围岩荷载的影响较为显著,监测点增长幅度均值高达142%;先行洞衬砌受力呈现“拱腰较小,拱顶及拱肩较大”的分布规律,且靠近后行洞一侧拱肩位置受力最大;通过现场监测位移反分析得到的先行洞衬砌受力结果和现场监测结果较为一致,论证了该方法的合理性和实用性,研究成果可为无中导洞连拱隧道结构设计提供参考。

Establishing time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by bedrock excavation rebound by inverse analysis method

Rock rebound relaxation deformation,or even rock burst,caused by the excavation of dam base and abutment or high rock slope affects their stability and results in the fall of mechanical properties of the rock.So an inverse analysis method was proposed in this paper to establish the time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by excavation rebound.The basic principle is based on the combination of observed data of the excavation rebound deformation of dam abutment or rock slope,and the calculated rebound deformation by FEM under ground stress at the corresponding time in the excavation process.The norm of the residuals of observed data and calculated data are taken as the objective function.Accordingly,the time-dependent model of bedrock deformation modulus can be established.The method displays its significance in the design of excavation,construction and operation management of dam base and high slope.

A simple data assimilation method for improving the MODIS LAI time-series data products based on the object analysis and gradient inverse weighted filter

A simple data assimilation method for improving estimation of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer （MODIS） leaf area index （LAI） time-series data products based on the gradient inverse weighted filter and object analysis is proposed. The properties and quality control （QC） of MODIS LAI data products are introduced. Also, the gradient inverse weighted filter and object analysis are analyzed. An experiment based on the simple data assimilation method is performed using MODIS LAI data sets from 2000 to 2005 of Guizhou Province in China.

INVERSE REGRESSION METHOD IN DATA STRUCTURE ANALYSIS

In order to explore the nonlinear structure hidden in high-dimensional data, some dimen-sion reduction techniques have been developed, such as the Projection Pursuit technique (PP).However, PP will involve enormous computational load. To overcome this, an inverse regressionmethod is proposed. In this paper, we discuss and develop this method. To seek the interestingprojective direction, the minimization of the residual sum of squares is used as a criterion, andspline functions are applied to approximate the general nonlinear transform function. The algo-rithm is simple, and saves the computational load. Under certain proper conditions, consistencyof the estimators of the interesting direction is shown.

基于LSTM的勘察器外壁温度反演方法研究

对于星壤物质物化特性的反演是深空探测中最重要的一环,星壤的热导率、热容参数等热特性是研究星壤组成的科学依据,而温度测量是基于侵彻式的星壤原位探测的重要参数。针对月壤勘察器侵彻过程的外表面温度无法直接测量的问题,开展了基于LSTM神经网络算法的勘察器外表面温度反演方法的研究。借助ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件实现侵彻过程的仿真模拟以获取多组勘察器弹头部内外表面温度数据,依据有限差分法离散热传导方程选取数据,采用长短期记忆神经网络来建立反演模型。通过模拟实验进行分析,该方法反演所得曲线和实验曲线相比均方根误差为12.9℃,最大相对误差不超过10%。实验结果表明本文所研究的方法可以实现勘察器外表面温度的反演。

大型地下厂房水压致裂法地应力测量及地应力场反演分析

岩体初始地应力是地下工程研究中的重要内容,依托大型地下厂房工程,采用三维水压致裂法和常规水压致裂法对洞内孔ZK1和地表孔ZK2分别进行地应力测量,获得岩体初始地应力;基于实测数据利用三维数值模拟方法进行地应力场反演计算,获得所需工程区的地应力场分布规律。研究表明:水压致裂法可以有效地获得初始地应力,三维水压致裂法获得的地下应力情况更为准确且可以与垂直孔测试数据互相印证;数值模拟获取的地应力计算值和实测值具有一致性,厂房隧洞布置较为合理且工程区发生岩爆概率较低;现场原位测试结果与回归地应力场分布规律可为工程设计提供有效的科学支撑。

免疫细胞与膝骨关节炎之间因果作用:一项两样本双向孟德尔随机化分析

背景:膝骨关节炎是一种常见的关节软骨及周围组织损伤的慢性炎症性疾病,而免疫细胞在膝骨关节炎免疫炎症反应中起到重要作用,但其中的具体机制仍有待深入研究。目的:采用孟德尔随机化方法来评估731种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎风险之间的潜在因果关系。方法:使用全基因组关联分析(GWAS)目录中公开获取731种免疫细胞表型的全基因组关联分析统计数据(从GCST0001391到GCST0002121)和IEUGWAS数据库中膝骨关节炎的全基因组关联分析数据(ebi-a-GCST007090)。采用逆方差加权法、MR-Egger回归法、加权中位数法、加权模型法和简单模型法来研究免疫细胞与膝骨关节炎之间的因果关系。敏感性分析用于检验孟德尔随机化分析结果是否可靠,然后以同样方法进行反向孟德尔随机化分析。结果与结论:①正向分析结果表明,共有4种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎有显著的因果关系(FDR<0.20),其中B细胞中的CD27 on CD24+CD27+(OR=1.026,P=0.00026,Pfdr=0.18)、髓系细胞中的CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-(OR=1.014,P=0.00050,Pfdr=0.18)以及Treg细胞中的CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br(OR=1.001,P=0.00078,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的正向因果关联;单核细胞中PDL-1 on monocyte(OR=0.952,P=0.00098,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的负向因果关联。②反向分析结果表明,当膝骨关节炎作为暴露数据时,与731种免疫细胞表型均不具有显著因果关系(FDR<0.20)。③敏感性分析结果显示:双向孟德尔随机化的Cochran’s Q检验和MR-Egger回归法结果P值均大于0.05,表明免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间的因果效应分析不存在显著的异质性和多效性。④上述结果证实,CD27 on CD24+CD27+,CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-,CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br以及PDL-1 on monocyte免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间可能具有较为显著的潜在因果关系,这为研究膝骨关节炎的生物学机制及探索膝骨关节炎的早期防治提供有价值的线索,也为干预性药物的开发提供了新的方向。

深层页岩气井气水两相缝网参数反演方法

深层页岩气藏的开发离不开大规模的体积压裂技术,而缝网参数反演方法是压裂效果评价、产能动态分析的一种重要手段。现有的缝网参数反演方法忽略了支撑剂不均匀分布和气水两相渗流对深层页岩气藏开发的影响,导致参数反演误差较大,且难以区分“近井支撑裂缝”和“远井未支撑裂缝”对产能的贡献。针对这一问题,基于动态分析方法,建立了考虑多重非线性流动机理和未完全支撑裂缝的深层页岩储层气水两相缝网参数反演方法。反演方法建立过程中基于线性流模型假设,将压后的复杂裂缝网络等效为支撑裂缝区、压裂改造内区、未支撑裂缝区和压裂改造外区4个区域,采用变量替换、摄动变换、逐次替换等手段处理气体高压物性参数、超临界吸附、应力敏感、非达西渗流和气水两相渗流引起的非线性。利用数值模拟模型验证了本文方法的可靠性,并选取四川盆地4口深层页岩气井进行了应用分析。结果表明,建立的深层页岩气水两相缝网参数反演方法考虑了气液同产对产能预测和参数反演的影响,实现了支撑与未支撑裂缝半长和渗透率等参数的定量区分,为准确计算深层页岩气产量、评价压裂效果提供了理论指导。

云南省1961-2020年降水结构时空变化特征

[目的]揭示近60 a云南省降水结构的变化,加强对云南省降水的监测和预警,为云南省水旱灾害风险评估提供科学参考依据。[方法]基于云南省32个气象站点逐日降水观测数据,引入降水发生率和降水贡献率两个指标,利用创新趋势分析法(ITA)、Mann-Kendall检验法和反距离权重法(IDW),探讨了在不同降水历时和降水等级下,降水结构时空变化的特征。[结果](1)降水发生率随降水历时增加呈减少趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省以短历时降水为主。空间上,短历时降水发生率和贡献率整体呈现自东北向西南递减趋势,长历时与之相反。(2)随降水等级的提升,降水发生率呈增加趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省降水以小雨为主。空间上,小雨发生率呈自北向南递减趋势,中雨、大雨和暴雨发生率趋势与之相反。小雨和中雨贡献率呈自西北向东南递减趋势,大雨和暴雨与之相反。滇中、滇南和滇西南地区大雨和暴雨发生率和贡献率均较高,可能造成洪涝灾害的风险较大。(3)不同降水历时下,大多数站点短历时降水发生率和贡献率呈增加趋势,上升幅度大于5%,长历时呈5%以上下降趋势。不同降水等级下,大多数站点的小雨发生率、贡献率呈10%以内下降趋势,大雨和暴雨发生率、贡献率呈5%以上的上升趋势。[结论]云南省短历时大雨和暴雨发生概率有所上升,地区发生洪涝灾害和土壤侵蚀的几率增大,未来应持续对其降水结构进行监测研究。

基于单元辐射叠加法的水下矩形板声场重建

为解决等效源法在水下结构声源声场重建中存在的虚拟等效源配置位置难以确定、求逆过程中传递矩阵病态性过大的问题,本文提出了基于单元辐射叠加法的水下结构声源声场重建方法。该方法利用结构声源边界元法建模思想与声场波叠加原理,建立了声源表面振动与辐射声场之间的振声传递关系,得到可快速计算的振声传递函数,并利用该函数作为传递算子进行声场重建。通过对矩形板的声场重建仿真,验证了本文方法相比等效点源近场声全息具有更高的重建精度,且具有更大的有效全息距离。通过在不同阵元数、信噪比情况下的仿真分析,进一步证明了本文方法能够改善水下结构声源的声场重建精度。