Improving the Forecasts of Coastal Wind Speeds in Tianjin,China Based on the WRF Model with Machine Learning Algorithms

Characterized by sudden changes in strength,complex influencing factors,and significant impacts,the wind speed in the circum-Bohai Sea area is relatively challenging to forecast.On the western side of Bohai Bay,as the economic center of the circum-Bohai Sea,Tianjin exhibits a high demand for accurate wind forecasting.In this study,three machine learning algorithms were employed and compared as post-processing methods to correct wind speed forecasts by the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model for Tianjin.The results showed that the random forest(RF)achieved better performance in improving the forecasts because it substantially reduced the model bias at a lower computing cost,while the support vector machine(SVM)performed slightly worse(especially for stronger winds),but it required an approximately 15 times longer computing time.The back propagation(BP)neural network produced an average forecast significantly closer to the observed forecast but insufficiently reduced the RMSE.In regard to wind speed frequency forecasting,the RF method commendably corrected the forecasts of the frequency of moderate(force 3)wind speeds,while the BP method showed a desirable capability for correcting the forecasts of stronger(force>6)winds.In addition,the 10-m u and v components of wind(u_(10)and v_(10)),2-m relative humidity(RH_(2))and temperature(T_(2)),925-hPa u(u925),sea level pressure(SLP),and 500-hPa temperature(T_(500))were identified as the main factors leading to bias in wind speed forecasting by the WRF model in Tianjin,indicating the importance of local dynamical/thermodynamic processes in regulating the wind speed.This study demonstrates that the combination of numerical models and machine learning techniques has important implications for refined local wind forecasting.

Regional wind power forecasting model with NWP grid dataoptimized

Unlike the traditional fossil energy, wind, as the clean renewable energy, can reduce the emission of the greenhouse gas. To take full advantage of the environmental benefits of wind energy, wind power forecasting has to be studied to overcome the troubles brought by the variable nature of wind. Power forecasting for regional wind farm groups is the problem that many power system operators care about. The high-dimensional feature sets with redundant information are frequently encountered when dealing with this problem. In this paper, two kinds of feature set construction methods are proposed which can achieve the proper feature set either by selecting the subsets or by transforming the original variables with specific combinations. The former method selects the subset according to the criterion of minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR), while the latter does so based on the method of principal component analysis (PCA). A locally weighted learning method is also proposed to utilize the processed feature set to produce the power forecast results. The proposed model is simple and easy to use with parameters optimized automatically. Finally, a case study of 28 wind farms in East China is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Asymmetric GARCH type models for asymmetric volatility characteristics analysis and wind power forecasting

Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety, reliability and stability of power grid. In this study, the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series and improved forecasting precision. Benchmark Symmetric Curve (BSC) and Asymmetric Curve Index (ACI) are proposed as new asymmetric volatility analytical tool, and several generalized applications are presented. In the case study, the utility of the GARCH-type models in depicting time-varying volatility of wind power time series is demonstrated with the asymmetry effect, verified by the asymmetric parameter estimation. With benefit of the enhanced News Impact Curve (NIC) analysis, the responses in volatility to the magnitude and the sign of shocks are emphasized. The results are all confirmed to be consistent despite varied model specifications. The case study verifies that the models considering the asymmetric effect of volatility benefit the wind power forecasting performance.

Bootstrapped Multi-Model Neural-Network Super-Ensembles for Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

The bootstrap resampling method is applied to an ensemble artificial neural network (ANN) approach (which combines machine learning with physical data obtained from a numerical weather prediction model) to provide a multi-ANN model super-ensemble for application to multi-step-ahead forecasting of wind speed and of the associated power generated from a wind turbine. A statistical combination of the individual forecasts from the various ANNs of the super-ensemble is used to construct the best deterministic forecast, as well as the prediction uncertainty interval associated with this forecast. The bootstrapped neural-network methodology is validated using measured wind speed and power data acquired from a wind turbine in an operational wind farm located in northern China.

Wind power forecasting based on outlier smooth transition autoregressive GARCH model

The impacts of outlying shocks on wind power time series are explored by considering the outlier effect in the volatility of wind power time series. A novel short term wind power forecasting method based on outlier smooth transition autoregressive(OSTAR) structure is advanced, then, combined with the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH) model, the OSTAR-GARCH model is proposed for wind power forecasting. The proposed model is further generalized to be with fat-tail distribution.Consequently, the mechanisms of regimes against different magnitude of shocks are investigated owing to the outlier effect parameters in the proposed models. Furthermore, the outlier effect is depicted by news impact curve(NIC) and a novel proposed regime switching index(RSI). Case studies based on practical data validate the feasibility of the proposed wind power forecasting method. From the forecast performance comparison of the OSTAR-GARCH models, the OSTAR-GARCH model with fat-tail distribution proves to be promising for wind power forecasting.

Forecasting method of monthly wind power generation based on climate model and long short-term memory neural network

Predicting wind power gen eration over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatchi ng departme nts,as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions.This study presents a monthly wind power gen eration forecast!ng method based on a climate model and long short-term memory(LSTM)n eural n etwork.A non linear mappi ng model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours.After considering the meteorological data(as predicted for the future)and new installed capacity planning,the monthly wind power gen eration forecast results are output.A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.

Coupling framework for a wind speed forecasting model applied to wind energy

Wind energy is the burgeoning renewable energy. Accurate wind speed prediction is necessary to ensure the stability and reliability of the power grid for wind energy. This study focuses on developing a novel hybrid forecasting model to tackle adverse effects caused by strong variability and abrupt changes in wind speed. The hybrid model combines data decomposition and error correction strategy for a wind speed forecasting model applied to wind energy. First, wavelet packet decomposition is applied to wind speed series to obtain stationary subseries. Next, outlier robust extreme learning machine is implemented to predict subseries. Finally, an error correction strategy coupled with data decomposition is designed to repair preliminary prediction results. In addition, four measured datasets from China and USAwind farms with different time intervals are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. Experimental analysis indicates that the proposed model outperforms the compared models. Results show that(1) the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is remarkably improved compared with other conventional models;(2) the proposed model can reduce the influence of the end effect in the decomposition-based forecasting model;(3) the coupling framework is successful for enhancing performance of hybrid forecasting model.

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on ARMA-ARCH Model in Wind Farms

Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.

Wind power forecasting based on new hybrid model with TCN residual modification

Wind energy has been widely utilized to alleviate the shortage of fossil resources.When wind power is integrated into the power grid on a large scale,the power grid’s stability is severely harmed due to the fluctuating and intermittent properties of wind speed.Accurate wind power forecasts help to formulate good operational strategies for wind farms.A short-term wind power forecasting method based on new hybrid model is proposed to increase the accuracy of wind power forecast.Firstly,wind power time series are separated using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise method to obtain multiple components,which are then predicted using a support vector regression machine model optimized through using the grid search and cross validation(GridSearchCV)algorithm.Secondly,a residual modification model based on temporal convolutional network is constructed,and variables with high correlation are selected as the input features of the model to predict the residuals of wind power.Finally,the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is compared to other models using the actual wind power data of the wind farm to demonstrate the validity of the described method,and the results reveal that the proposed method has better prediction performance.

Short-term wind power forecasting using hybrid method based on enhanced boosting algorithm

Day-ahead wind power forecasting plays an essential role in the safe and economic use of wind energy,the comprehending-intrinsic complexity of the behavior of wind is considered as the main challenge faced in improving forecasting accuracy.To improve forecasting accuracy,this paper focuses on two aspects:①proposing a novel hybrid method using Boosting algorithm and a multistep forecast approach to improve the forecasting capacity of traditional ARMA model;②calculating the existing error bounds of the proposed method.To validate the effectiveness of the novel hybrid method,one-year period of real data are used for test,which were collected from three operating wind farms in the east coast of Jiangsu Province,China.Meanwhile conventional ARMA model and persistence model are both used as benchmarks with which the proposed method is compared.Test results show that the proposed method achieves a more accurate forecast.

Very Short-Term Generating Power Forecasting for Wind Power Generators Based on Time Series Analysis

In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to control the power output for wind power generators as accurately as possible, a method of wind speed estimation is required. In this paper, a technique considers that wind speed in the order of 1 - 30 seconds is investigated in confirming the validity of the Auto Regressive model (AR), Kalman Filter (KF) and Neural Network (NN) to forecast wind speed. This paper compares the simulation results of the forecast wind speed for the power output forecast of wind power generator by using AR, KF and NN.

Separable Shadow Hamiltonian Hybrid Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Network Inference in wind speed forecasting

Accurate wind speed and consequently wind power forecasts form a critical enabling tool for large scale wind energy adoption.Probabilistic machine learning models such as Bayesian Neural Network(BNN)models are often preferred in the forecasting task as they facilitate estimates of predictive uncertainty and automatic relevance determination(ARD).Hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC)is widely used to perform asymptotically exact inference of the network parameters.A significant limitation to the increased adoption of HMC in inference for large scale machine learning systems is the exponential degradation of the acceptance rates and the corresponding effective sample sizes with increasing model dimensionality due to numerical integration errors.This paper presents a solution to this problem by sampling from a modified or shadow Hamiltonian that is conserved to a higher-order by the leapfrog integrator.BNNs trained using Separable Shadow Hamiltonian Hybrid Monte Carlo(S2HMC)are used to forecast one hour ahead wind speeds on the Wind Atlas for South Africa(WASA)datasets.Experimental results find that S2HMC yields higher effective sample sizes than the competing HMC.The predictive performance of S2HMC and HMC based BNNs is found to be similar.We further perform hierarchical inference for BNN parameters by combining the S2HMC sampler with Gibbs sampling of hyperparameters for relevance determination.A generalisable ARD committee framework is introduced to synthesise the various sampler ARD outputs into robust feature selections.Experimental results show that this ARD committee approach selects features of high predictive information value.Further,the results show that dimensionality reduction performed through this approach improves the sampling performance of samplers that suffer from random walk behaviour such as Metropolis–Hastings(MH).

A Literature Review of Wind Forecasting Methods

In this paper, an overview of new and current developments in wind forecasting is given where the focus lies upon principles and practical implementations. High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to the power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help the power system operators reduce the risk of unreliability of electricity supply. This paper gives a literature survey on the categories and major methods of wind forecasting. Based on the assessment of wind speed and power forecasting methods, the future development direction of wind forecasting is proposed.

Bias Correction in Wind Direction Forecasting Using the Circular-Circular Regression Method

Wind direction forecasting plays an important role in wind power prediction and air pollution management. Weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed are linear variables in which traditional model output statistics and bias correction methods are applied. However, wind direction is an angular variable; therefore, such traditional methods are ineffective for its evaluation. This paper proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasting of turbine height from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a circular-circular regression approach. The technique is applied to a 24-h forecast of 65-m wind directions observed at Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province, China, which consistently yields improvements in forecast performance parameters such as smaller absolute mean error and stronger similarity in wind rose diagram pattern.

Forecasting wind speed using a reinforcement learning hybrid ensemble model:a high-speed railways strong wind signal prediction study in Xinjiang,China

Considering the application of wind-forecasting technology along the railway,it becomes an effective means to reduce the risk of tain more reliable wind-speed prediction results,this study proposes an intelligent ensemble forecasting method for strong winds train derailment and overturning.Accurate prediction of crosswinds can provide scientific guidance for safe train operation.To obalong the high-speed railway.The method consists of three parts:the data preprocessing module,the hybrid prediction module and original wind speed data.Then,Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno(BFGS)method,non-linear autoregressive network with exoge-the reinforcement learing ensemble module.First,fast ensemble empirical model decomposition(FEEMD)is used to process the prediction models for all the sublayers of decomposition.Finally,Q-learning is utilized to iteratively calculate the combined weights nous inputs(NARX)and deep belief network(DBN),three benchmark predictors with different characteristics are employed to build of the three models,and the prediction results of each sublayer are superimposed to obtain the model output.The real wind speed data of two railway stations in Xinjiang are used for experimental comparison.Experiments show that compared with the single benchmark model,the hybrid ensemble model has better accumacy and robustness for wind speed prediction along the railway.The 1-step forecasting results mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and root mean square error(RMSE)of Q-leaming-FEEMD-BFGS-NARX-DBN in site #1 and site #2 are 0.0894 m/s,0.6509%,0.1146 m/s,and 0.0458 m/s.0.2709%,0.0616 m/s.respectively.The proposed ensemble model is a promising method for railway wind speed prediction.

基于WRF模式的四川省凉山州地区风能资源可开发区域研究

利用MERRA2再分析数据驱动WRF模式,对四川凉山州地区2020年全年进行风资源模拟分析,并用凉山州地区典型测风塔数据对模拟结果进行检验,并进行详细地风资源分析,再根据风电场开发8%基准内部收益率反推可开发风能资源的区域分布。结果表明:凉山州大部分地区100 m高度年平均风速在5 m/s以上,风速极大值一般位于山脊,凉山州风能最好的区域主要集中在会东县和宁南县。凉山州典型区域内均表现出受西南季风影响的特征,即冬、春季节风大,夏、秋季节风小,主风向呈强西南风状态,且风功率密度变化规律与风速的变化规律基本一致。凉山州山地区域可开发风能资源的平均风功率密度临界值为258 W/m^(2),这些区域主要集中在会理、会东、宁南、布拖、木里和盐源县境内。可开发区域分布图对指导凉山州地区风能开发提供科学参考。

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Load Flow Analysis Considering Wind Power Forecast Error Correlation

Short-term power flow analysis has a significant influence on day-ahead generation schedule. This paper proposes a time series model and prediction error distribution model of wind power output. With the consideration of wind speed and wind power output forecast error’s correlation, the probabilistic distributions of transmission line flows during tomorrow’s 96 time intervals are obtained using cumulants combined Gram-Charlier expansion method. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of transmission lines on each time interval could provide scheduling planners with more accurate and comprehensive information. Simulation in IEEE 39-bus system demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Rolling Generation Dispatch Based on Ultra-short-term Wind Power Forecast

The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A rolling generation dispatch model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast was proposed. In generation dispatch process, the model rolling correct not only the conventional units power output but also the power from wind farm, simultaneously. Second order Markov chain model was utilized to modify wind power prediction error state (WPPES) and update forecast results of wind power over the remaining dispatch periods. The prime-dual affine scaling interior point method was used to solve the proposed model that taken into account the constraints of multi-periods power balance, unit output adjustment, up spinning reserve and down spinning reserve.

Performance Improvement of Artificial Neural Network Model in Short-term Forecasting of Wind Farm Power Output

Due to the low dispatchability of wind power,the massive integration of this energy source in power systems requires short-term and very short-term wind power output forecasting models to be as efficient and stable as possible.A study is conducted in the present paper of potential improvements to the performance of artificial neural network(ANN)models in terms of efficiency and stability.Generally,current ANN models have been developed by considering exclusively the meteorological information of the wind farm reference station,in addition to selecting a fixed number of time periods prior to the forecasting.In this respect,new ANN models are proposed in this paper,which are developed by:varying the number of prior 1-h periods(periods prior to the forecasting hour)chosen for the input layer parameters;and/or incorporating in the input layer data from a second weather station in addition to the wind farm reference station.It has been found that the model performance is always improved when data from a second weather station are incorporated.The mean absolute relative error(MARE)of the new models is reduced by up to 7.5%.Furthermore,the longer the forecasting horizon,the greater the degree of improvement.