Characteristics and hazards of different snow avalanche types in a continental snow climate region in the Central Tianshan Mountains

Snow avalanches are a common natural hazard in many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountains.The avalanche hazard varies with snow avalanche type in different snow climate regions and at different times.The ability to understand the characteristics of avalanche activity and hazards of different snow avalanche types is a prerequisite for improving avalanche disaster management in the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains.In this study,we collected data related to avalanche,snowpack,and meteorology during four snow seasons(from 2015 to 2019),and analysed the characteristics and hazards of different types of avalanches.The snow climate of the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains was examined using a snow climate classification scheme,and the results showed that the mountain range has a continental snow climate.To quantify the hazards of different types of avalanches and describe their situation over time in the continental snow climate region,this study used the avalanche hazard degree to assess the hazards of four types of avalanches,i.e.,full-depth dry snow avalanches,full-depth wet snow avalanches,surface-layer dry snow avalanches,and surface-layer wet snow avalanches.The results indicated that surface-layer dry snow avalanches were characterized by large sizes and high release frequencies,which made them having the highest avalanche hazard degree in the Central Tianshan Mountains with a continental snow climate.The overall avalanche hazard showed a single peak pattern over time during the snow season,and the greatest hazard occurred in the second half of February when the snowpack was deep and the temperature increased.This study can help the disaster and emergency management departments rationally arrange avalanche relief resources and develop avalanche prevention strategies.

SNOW HAZARD REGIONALIZATION IN CHINA

For the zoning of snow hazard in China, on the principles of (a) comprehensive analysis integrated with dominant factors, (b) multi-level division, and (c) serving the agriculture and stock-raising, transportation and communication, we first classified China into two large zones according to the situation of snow or no snow distribution. Secondly, based on the climate and landform, properties of snow cover and main features of snow hazard, the large zone of snow hazard can be classified into three second-level regions. In order to obviously reflect the difference of snow cover quantity and snow hazard type as well as hazardous degree, twenty subregions (third-level) of snow hazard are further divided in detail. In addition, the boundaries and the principal features of the differences between the various snow hazard regions are provided.

PSA study of the effect of extreme snowfall on a floating nuclear power plant:case study in the Bohai Sea

This study presents a probabilistic safety analysis(PSA)method for the external event of extreme snowfall on a floating nuclear power plant(FNPP)deployed in the Bohai Sea.We utilized the Weibull and Gumbel extreme value distributions to fit the collected meteorological data and obtained a hazard curve for the event of an extreme snowfall where the FNPP is located,providing a basis for the frequency of extreme snowfall-initiating events.Our analysis indicates that extreme snowfall primarily affects the ventilation openings of the equipment,leading to the failure of devices such as the diesel generators.Additionally,extreme snowfall can result in a loss of off-site power(LOOP).Therefore,the developed extreme snowfall PSA model is mainly based on the LOOP event tree,considering responses such as snowfall removal by personnel.Our calculations indicate a core damage frequency(CDF)of 1.13×10^(-10) owing to extreme snowfall,which is relatively low.The results of the cut-set analysis indicate that valve failures in the core makeup tank(CMT),passive residual heat removal system(PRS),and in-containment refueling water storage tank(IRWST)significantly contribute to the CDF.

An Assessment and Identification of Avalanche Hazard Sites in Uri Sector and its Surroundings on Himalayan Mountain

Avalanches are one of the most natural hazard in the mountain areas and therefore, identification of avalanche hazard is necessary for planning future development activities. The study area falls under the international boundary region which generally covered by the snow(38%) on high altitude regions of the western part of Himalayas. Avalanches are triggered in study area during snowfall resulting in loss of human life, property and moreover the transportation and communication affected by the debris which ultimately delays the relief measures. Therefore in this study three major causative parameters i.e terrain, ground cover and meteorological have been incorporated for the identification of avalanche hazard zones(AHZ) by integrating Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method in Geographical Information System(GIS). In the first part of study, avalanche sites have been identified by the criteria related to terrain(slope, aspect and curvature) and ground cover. Weights and ratings to these causative factors and their cumulative effects have been assigned on the basis of experience and knowledge of field. In the second part of the study, single point interpolation and Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW) method has been employed as only one weather station falls in study area. Accordingly, it has been performed to generate the meteorological parameter maps(viz. air temperature and relative humidity) from the field observatories and Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) located at Baaj OP in Uri sector. Finally, the meteorological parameter maps were superimposed on the terrain-based avalanche hazard thematic layers to identify the dynamic avalanche hazard sites. Conventional weighted approach and Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method have been implemented for the identification of AHZ that shows approximately 55% area under maximum hazard zone. Further, the results were validated by overlapping the existing registered avalanche sites. The sites were identified through field survey and avalanche data card followed by its delineation from the toposheet(1:50,000 scale). Interestingly study found that 28% area under moderate and maximum AHZ correlated well with registered avalanche sites when they were overlapped. The accuracy for such works can be increased by field survey under favorable weather condition and by adding data from more number of AWS for predicting avalanche hazards in mountainous regions.

甘肃积石山地震液化型泥流特征、成因及其对黄河上游盆地地震次生灾害风险评估的启示

北京时间2023年12月18日23点59分30秒,甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生Ms 6.2级浅源地震,地震在青海省民和县中川乡诱发了一处同震特大型规模泥流灾害,造成了特大型灾难事件的发生。笔者采用现场调查、无人机摄影测量、现场取样及室内测试等研究方法对此次泥流灾害发育特征及成因进行分析。结果表明:①该泥流具有典型沟谷型泥石流平面特征,形成区、流通区和堆积区分界明显,泥流主要物源为山前洪积粉质黏土。②地震、降雪消融、农田冬灌、低温冻结,为泥流提供了初始动力并抬升了局部地下水位,是该泥流灾害的主要诱因;地形坡度、地层岩性,为泥流提供了后续运动势能和振动液化条件,是该泥流灾害的内因。③泥流运移过程中存在侧向和底部铲刮效应,尤其在3处流向改变区侧向铲刮、局部堆积显著,最终快速流入沟口金田村和草滩村。分析结果可为官亭盆地乃至黄河上游沉积盆地地震次生灾害风险评价工作提供思路与理论依据。

安徽省雪灾危险性精细化评估与区划

在全国气象灾害综合风险普查技术规范基础上,针对安徽省雪灾影响特点,增加雪压这一观测要素,建立以年均最大积雪深度、年均积雪日数和最大雪压作为致灾因子的危险性评估模型,利用1978—2020年安徽省81个国家气象观测站雪深、雪压及地理信息等资料,分析各致灾因子的时空分布特征,并进行积雪日数地形订正,开展安徽省雪灾危险性精细化评估。结果表明:安徽省国家站最大积雪深度平均值、积雪日数平均值和最大雪压的年际变化趋势差异较大,位列前三的年份均为2008年、1984年和2018年;年均最大积雪深度大值区主要集中在大别山区、皖南山区和江淮之间。由于100m以上区域的年均积雪日数与高程相关性显著且样本数量适中,对该区域进行地形订正后,年均积雪日数高值区位于大别山区及皖南山区,其次为淮北地区西北部至大别山区北麓一带。对最大雪压进行缺测插补计算,宣城、铜陵、黄山北部等地最大雪压值有所提高,且局地特征更为显著。安徽省雪灾致灾高危险区主要位于大别山区以及皖南山区等海拔较高地区,而低危险区主要位于淮北地区东部、江淮之间东部和沿江西南部。

Mechanisms of the formation of wind-blown sand hazards and the sand control measures in Gobi areas under extremely strong winds along the Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed railway

The Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed railway(HSR)traverses areas of the Gobi Desert where extremely strong winds are frequent.These strong winds cause sand/gravel hazards,an unaddressed issue that often seriously compromises the safe operation of the HSR.This paper studies the mechanisms leading to wind-blown sand hazards and the outcomes of sand control projects in these areas.The main findings are as follows:(1)Cold northern airflows over the Tian Shan mountain range are accelerated by the wind tunnels and downslope effect as they pass over complex terrain comprising passes,gullies,and proluvial fans.Consequently,the wind intensity often increases two-to threefold,creating frequent high-speed winds that lead to severe sand damage along the HSR.(2)In the Gobi areas with extremely strong winds,sand grains can be lifted as high as 9 m from the ground into the air,far higher than in other areas of the desert.The sand transport rate decreases exponentially with increasing height.Both wind speed and particle size determine saltation height.Coarser particles and stronger winds provide the particles with a higher kinetic energy as they collide with the ground.In the wind zones of Baili and Yandun,the analysed study areas,the saltation layer height of wind-blown sand/gravel exceeds 3 and 2 m,respectively.(3)Based on the above findings,recently emerging sand control materials,suitable for the areas of interest,were screened and developed.Furthermore,under the proposed principle of‘supplementing blocking with trapping’,a comprehensive sand control measure was established,featuring sandblocking belts comprised of multiple rows,and high,vertical sand-trapping installations with a large grids size.The installed system showed a high efficacy,reducing sand transport rate by 87.87%and significantly decreasing the deposition of sand along a trial section of the HSR.

基于3S技术的牧区雪灾评价方法

利用NOAA卫星数据及地面气象台站观测资料,建立了积雪深度遥感反演模型;应用线性混合光谱分解原理,研究了基于像元的积雪覆盖率及积雪空间分类算法;依据草地畜牧业的特点,综合考虑了雪情、草情、畜情和气象因素的空间分布及其对草地畜牧业的危害程度,提出了2种新的基于格网单元的积雪危害指数和雪灾综合评价指数,构建了积雪危害分级与雪灾综合评价标准。通过对北疆阿勒泰牧区雪灾研究的结果表明,这2种指数和分级评价标准能准确详细地反映雪灾的时空分布特征和危害程度,对牧区雪灾的综合评价具有重要的应用价值。

阿勒泰地区雪灾遥感监测模型与评价方法

利用我国新疆阿勒泰地区 1996～ 1997年两次雪灾期间的NOAA卫星数据及地面气象台站观测资料 ,建立了积雪深度遥感反演模型 ;利用线性混合光谱分解原理 ,研究了基于像元的积雪覆盖率及积雪空间分类算法 ;提出评价积雪对草地畜牧业危害程度的两种基于格网数据结构的定量化指数 .结果表明 ,通过积雪深度反演模型和线性混合光谱分解方法可计算基于像元的积雪深度和覆盖率 ,提高积雪分类的精度 .建立的基于格网单元的积雪危害指数模型可系统地表达积雪区的雪情、草情、畜情和气象因子的空间分布状况 。

中国风吹雪区划

分析了我国风吹雪及其变化趋势，指出风吹雪和雪崩不能放在一起区划的原因。提出了风吹雪区划的理论、原则、要求和区划单位系统、指标及方法。据此，把中国风吹雪区划分为２ 个区域、３ 个大区、１３ 个地带、３９ 个地区和１３１ 个区。

大跨度轻钢结构风雪灾害原因与实例分析

目的为提高大跨度轻钢结构的抗风雪灾害能力,在今后的风雪灾害中,避免和减少类似的事故发生.方法对威海、辽宁和中国南方部分大跨度轻钢结构的风雪灾害的事故原因进行调查.结合工程实例,对雪荷载的超载状况、规范的局限性、结构的体型体系缺陷、承载力储备、工程施工与使用管理等方面存在的问题进行调查分析.结果大量事故调查结果表明事故发生的原因是多方面的,风雪灾害是事故的直接原因,然而设计、施工、安装及使用等过程所留下的隐患是事故发生的内在原因.结论因此针对所发现的问题,对相关设计规范以及设计、施工和日常管理等方面提出建议.

湘潭轻型钢结构厂房雪灾受损分析与思考

随着经济的发展、建筑技术水平的提高以及轻型钢结构的显著优点,现今很多厂房采用轻型钢结构。但是在2008年1月的雪灾中,湘潭轻型钢结构厂房部分受损倒塌,通过对雪灾现场的门式刚架和桁架轻型钢结构厂房的考查以及对相同结构形式的未倒塌门式刚架轻型钢结构厂房的检测,得出门式轻型钢结构厂房的混凝土基础承台、柱脚螺栓及螺栓杆、钢柱、钢柱之间的侧向拉杆、钢梁、檩条的破坏形式,并从雪荷载大大超过设计值、设计原因、使用中无维护、厂房所在的位置、厂房的用途、厂房与周围建筑物联系等方面,分析厂房雪灾受损的原因,最后从今后结构设计的雪压取值、结构形式和支撑体系的选择、厂房使用过程中的检查和维护、雪灾预警及应采取的措施等方面作了思考。

极端冰雪灾害条件下松散堆积体边坡演化分析

针对2008年初南方罕见的极端冰雪气候,为研究其与地质灾害的相关性,探讨了极端冰雪灾害条件下均质松散堆积体边坡的演化特征。比较了融雪与降雨触发滑坡的异同点,通过具体事例分析了融雪触发滑坡灾害的一般规律。引入度日因子与雪雨当量两个物理量,根据南方极端冰雪气候特征建立了简化的有效融雪模型,并从渗流场、稳定性及变形3个方面模拟计算在不同雨雪当量下均质松散堆积体坡体的演化特征。结果表明,一定的融雪速率与融雪量对松散堆积体边坡渗流场无影响。随着融雪的持续,非饱和区基质吸力逐渐减小,坡体整体稳定性逐渐降低。坡面上水平位移与竖向位移逐渐增大,表现为水平方向上前缘变形大于后缘,竖直方向上后缘下错与前缘隆起。在融雪持续一段时间后,坡体失稳破坏。

中国天山雪崩灾害调查分析

雪崩是极具灾难性的山地自然灾害,严重威胁着人民生命财产安全和社会发展。然而,当前的雪崩防治能力和构建人与自然和谐共存格局之间的矛盾依旧突出。提高防灾减灾基础需弄清区域孕灾环境和本底数据。因此,利用现场踏勘和访问方法在中国天山开展了雪崩灾害调查工作。结果证实天山山区的雪崩类型多为沟槽型、坡面型和湿雪崩,大小以小型、中型和大型雪崩为主,形态呈舌形且表面粗糙。在空间上主要分布在那拉提镇、巩乃斯镇、尼勒克县、果子沟和独库公路沿线。时间上,在1-2月频发,3-4月有所减少,5-9月极少发生,10-12月偶发小型雪崩。地形地貌、雪情和气象条件是典型的孕灾环境。其中,地形和风力作用是引发沟槽型雪崩的关键。地形和积雪量是坡面型雪崩的主导诱因。气温变化导致雪层中变质作用猛烈是诱发湿雪崩的主要因素。其次,调查发现天山雪崩灾害现状较为严峻。G218沿线仅16 km内发生雪崩124处,最大抛程234.00 m。G217阿库线50 km内雪崩多达2 102处,最大抛程692.42 m。同时,对多年降水和最大积雪深度数据的分析表明雪崩发展趋势不容乐观。另外,现有的雪崩灾害管理基础较为薄弱不足以应对气候变化背景下灾情复杂多变的形势。本年度的调查分析呈现了中国天山雪崩的严峻现状并揭示了其特点、成因和发展趋势,在提高雪崩防灾减灾和救灾能力方面具有重要的借鉴价值。

防雪栅设计高度的数值仿真研究

防雪栅是一种有效防治公路风吹雪雪害的措施之一。本文基于雪害形成机理,论述了公路风吹雪雪害数值仿真的思路和方法,并针对路堤这一典型路基断面形式,运用该仿真技术,就防雪栅设计高度对防雪效果的影响进行了研究,其结果与国内外已有的研究成果相吻合,从而为防雪栅及其他防雪设施的设计提供了一种新的分析方法。

中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势

中国每年都有不同程度的冰雪灾害发生，冰雪灾害成为中国西部和北部经济发展的一个制约因素。最近１００～１５０年内，气候变暖将显著地减少冰冻圈的区域范围与数量，这种减少对有关的生态系统和社会经济活动将产生明显的影响。山地冰川的冰雪丧失和退缩将是惊人的。小冰川分布地区，如祁连山、阿尔泰山等，随着预料的变暖在未来１００年内将大部分消失；但喀喇昆仑山、帕米尔、天山以及喜马拉雅山等的那些大冰川将持续存在到２２世纪。冰川阻寒湖溃决洪水规模将日益变小。随着气候变化，冰雪融水径流将发生明显变化。随着气候变暖，季节性积雪的范围、积雪期和厚度将减少，从整体说，季节性积雪灾害（如雪崩、风吹雪）将变轻。海冰的范围和厚度将发生巨大变化，不仅是由于气候变暖，而且由于大气和大洋两者的环流形式发生变化，我们预期：黄海和渤海的海冰和北方地区河冰将显著减少，因此，河冰、海冰灾害亦将变轻。

公路路基断面形式与路基高度对风吹雪灾害形成的影响分析

结合黑龙江省5条主要公路风吹雪灾害调查数据,分析各种不同形式的路基横断面对风吹雪雪害形成与发展的影响,找到不同路基断面形式下雪害形成的机理,进而为提出避免或减少风吹雪雪害的路基断面形式提供依据。

防雪栅在公路风吹雪雪害防治中的应用

阐述东北地区公路雪害造成的危害和公路风吹雪防治的必要性,并对防雪栅的防雪机理进行分析,提出设置防雪栅的方法。实践证明,这些措施是得力的,可有效抵制风吹雪对公路造成的危害。

南方极端冰雪灾害条件下边坡崩塌机理初步研究

针对2008年初我国南方罕见的极端冰雪条件下的岩土坡体崩塌问题,运用岩土体的水分场、温度场及应力场三场耦合基本理论,采用FLAC3D模拟软件,对饱和状态下的岩质边坡进行数值模拟计算,从冻结深度及冻胀变形两个方面揭示了南方极端冰雪灾害条件下崩塌形成机理。计算结果表明,短时间内冻结仅仅发生在岩土体表层;在冻结过程中,边坡表层质点发生了向自由边界的位移,随着冻结时间的延长,冻胀位移有增大的趋势。边坡岩土体的冻融损伤只发生在边坡表层,因此南方极端冰雪环境下边坡多发生浅层崩滑破坏,并给出了相应崩塌形成的过程示意图。

关于西北地区的自然灾害链

基于灾害系统理论,根据中国省级报刊灾害数据库(1949-2005年),构建了我国西北地区主要的灾害链:干旱灾害链(分为高温-干旱灾害链、旱灾-虫灾-病害灾害链、旱灾-大风-沙尘暴灾害链)、地震灾害链和寒潮-雪灾灾害链的成灾模式。分析表明:降水少、纬度高、沙漠戈壁广布、山脉与盆地、高原与平川相间等是旱灾灾害链发生、发展的主要原因,灾情随灾害链过程放大,受承灾体脆弱性累积加重。提出干旱内陆区的上游山区加强水源保护,半干旱草原区防治荒漠化、沙化,黄河流域中上游区防治水土流失等区域模式。同时以案例形式分析了地震灾害链和寒潮-雪灾灾害链的致灾、成灾模式,提出了相应的减灾对策,为减灾提供科学依据。