2020年3月18日中午至夜间,山西、河北、北京、天津和山东等地先后出现阵风10级及以上强风天气。利用风廓线雷达、国家级地面气象观测站和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)第五代大气...2020年3月18日中午至夜间,山西、河北、北京、天津和山东等地先后出现阵风10级及以上强风天气。利用风廓线雷达、国家级地面气象观测站和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)第五代大气再分析数据(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)等资料,对强风过程的天气学成因进行了分析。结果表明:强风发生在低空暖脊异常发展的热力环境条件下,冷锋自黄土高原下到华北平原,中层锋消,垂直方向上发生“断裂”,低层冷锋先行侵入热低压,在锋生过程中发生。强风具有显著的非地转瞬变特征,低层强冷平流是强变压梯度产生的主要因素,变压风叠加在快速移动的冷锋系统中诱发大风,变压风是重要组成部分;低空动量下传效应引起低层风速波动,但不足以直接诱发强风。展开更多
Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable opera...Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.展开更多
The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fis...The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fisheries in spring season.After episodic wind-driven events during the spring of 2017,horizontal and vertical profiles of physical chemical biological factors were investigated at 29 stations located in the Ulleung Basin area.In addition,growth responses of phytoplankton communities to nutrient additions were evaluated by bioassay experiments to understand the fluctuation of phytoplankton biomass.Because of strong northwestern wind,phytoplankton biomass was scattered and upwelling phenomenon might be suppressed in this season.The phytoplankton abundances in the coastal stations were significantly higher than offshore and island stations.In contrast,the nutrient and chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentrations and the phytoplankton biomass were quite low in all locations.Bacillariophyceae was dominated group(>75.1%for coastal,40.0%for offshore and 43.6%for island stations).In the algal bioassays,the phytoplankton production was stimulated by N availability.The in vivo Chl a values in the+N and+NP treatments were significantly higher than the values in the control and the+P treatments.Based on the field survey,the higher nutrients in coastal waters affected the growth of diatom assemblages,however,little prosperity of phytoplankton was observed in the offshore waters despite the injection of sufficient nutrients in bioassay experiments.The growth of phytoplankton depended on the initial cell density.All of results indicated that a dominant northwestern wind led to a limited nutrients condition at euphotic layers,and the low level of biomass supply from the coasts resulted in low primary production.Both supplying nutrients and introducing phytoplankton through the currents are critical to maintain the high productivity in the Ulleung Basin area of the East Sea.展开更多
Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work...Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.展开更多
Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic ...Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic losses. Two case events were investigated in this study;one event occurred in May 2019 and the other occurred in March 2020, both in southwestern Nigeria. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Infrared brightness temperatures and CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products were analysed alongside in-situ observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). Other data sources analysed are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Cold pools were identified in the impacted communities as indicated by surface characteristics investigated from the in-situ observations. There was a sudden change in wind direction, with a simultaneous drop in temperature accompanied by increasing wind speed. Pressure and humidity were observed to change in the same period. Thunderstorms were also present in the impacted communities, as observed by the in-situ observations, in both case events. The presence of lightning as observed by WWLLN agrees with the in-situ thunderstorms. The cloud characteristics showed the presence of cloud shields, by their brightness temperature, over the impacted communities during the period of the cold pools in both case events. The systems were raining at the time of the observations in both cases, consistent with the in-situ thunderstorm observations. The communities were heavily impacted with several properties destroyed in the events. These early monsoon seasonal windstorms require a forecasting tool for their prediction and this study presents an eye-opener for further investigation and innovative research to address the menace.展开更多
文摘2020年3月18日中午至夜间,山西、河北、北京、天津和山东等地先后出现阵风10级及以上强风天气。利用风廓线雷达、国家级地面气象观测站和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)第五代大气再分析数据(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)等资料,对强风过程的天气学成因进行了分析。结果表明:强风发生在低空暖脊异常发展的热力环境条件下,冷锋自黄土高原下到华北平原,中层锋消,垂直方向上发生“断裂”,低层冷锋先行侵入热低压,在锋生过程中发生。强风具有显著的非地转瞬变特征,低层强冷平流是强变压梯度产生的主要因素,变压风叠加在快速移动的冷锋系统中诱发大风,变压风是重要组成部分;低空动量下传效应引起低层风速波动,但不足以直接诱发强风。
基金supported by the Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China(51936003)。
文摘Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.
基金The Basic Core Technology Development Program for the Oceans and the Polar Regions of the National Research Foundation(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Science,ICT&Future Planning under contract No.NRF-2016 M1A5A1027456the project of the Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries under contract No.PG51010
文摘The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fisheries in spring season.After episodic wind-driven events during the spring of 2017,horizontal and vertical profiles of physical chemical biological factors were investigated at 29 stations located in the Ulleung Basin area.In addition,growth responses of phytoplankton communities to nutrient additions were evaluated by bioassay experiments to understand the fluctuation of phytoplankton biomass.Because of strong northwestern wind,phytoplankton biomass was scattered and upwelling phenomenon might be suppressed in this season.The phytoplankton abundances in the coastal stations were significantly higher than offshore and island stations.In contrast,the nutrient and chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentrations and the phytoplankton biomass were quite low in all locations.Bacillariophyceae was dominated group(>75.1%for coastal,40.0%for offshore and 43.6%for island stations).In the algal bioassays,the phytoplankton production was stimulated by N availability.The in vivo Chl a values in the+N and+NP treatments were significantly higher than the values in the control and the+P treatments.Based on the field survey,the higher nutrients in coastal waters affected the growth of diatom assemblages,however,little prosperity of phytoplankton was observed in the offshore waters despite the injection of sufficient nutrients in bioassay experiments.The growth of phytoplankton depended on the initial cell density.All of results indicated that a dominant northwestern wind led to a limited nutrients condition at euphotic layers,and the low level of biomass supply from the coasts resulted in low primary production.Both supplying nutrients and introducing phytoplankton through the currents are critical to maintain the high productivity in the Ulleung Basin area of the East Sea.
文摘Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.
文摘Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic losses. Two case events were investigated in this study;one event occurred in May 2019 and the other occurred in March 2020, both in southwestern Nigeria. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Infrared brightness temperatures and CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products were analysed alongside in-situ observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). Other data sources analysed are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Cold pools were identified in the impacted communities as indicated by surface characteristics investigated from the in-situ observations. There was a sudden change in wind direction, with a simultaneous drop in temperature accompanied by increasing wind speed. Pressure and humidity were observed to change in the same period. Thunderstorms were also present in the impacted communities, as observed by the in-situ observations, in both case events. The presence of lightning as observed by WWLLN agrees with the in-situ thunderstorms. The cloud characteristics showed the presence of cloud shields, by their brightness temperature, over the impacted communities during the period of the cold pools in both case events. The systems were raining at the time of the observations in both cases, consistent with the in-situ thunderstorm observations. The communities were heavily impacted with several properties destroyed in the events. These early monsoon seasonal windstorms require a forecasting tool for their prediction and this study presents an eye-opener for further investigation and innovative research to address the menace.