Composite Simulation of Dynamic Water Content and Water Use Efficiency of Winter Wheat

In order to forecast the effect of climate warming on agriculture,ENWATBAL model was used to simulate evapotranspiration of winter wheat due to the change of air temperature and precipitation in the coming decades.The effect of climate warming on winter wheat yield in the future decades was speculated by the past yield and climate data in last decades,and the possible water use efficiency in the future decades was calculated.The results indicate that climate warming would increase winter wheat evapotranspiration,and decrease yield and water use efficiency of winter wheat.It shows that climate warming would intensify the water shortage in agriculture,and it is necessary to develop watersaving agriculture.

冬小麦水分动态和水分利用效率的综合模拟

为了预测未来气候变暖对农业产生的影响,通过利用ENWATBAL动态模型模拟未来十年甚至几十年气候变化、尤其是气温和降水的变化对冬小麦田蒸散量的影响,借助历史资料推测同期气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响,从而获得相应的冬小麦水分利用效率的变化情况。结果表明,气候变暖会导致冬小麦蒸散量增加,产量下降,水分利用效率降低。说明气候变暖会加剧农业缺水问题,十分有必要开展节水农业。