基于Holt-Winters的电离层总电子含量预报

利用IGS中心提供的不同经纬度平静期、活跃期14d的电离层TEC格网点数据,以前8d的TEC值作为样本序列,分别采用Holt-Winters加法模型和乘法模型建立TEC预报模型,并预报后6d的TEC值。结果表明,无论在电离层平静期还是活跃期,2种模型所得预报结果大致相同,并与实际观测数据吻合较好,但加法模型的预测结果能更好地反映电离层TEC的变化特性。

西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析

由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化．藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录．中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据．如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事．本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用．

Holt-Winters方法与ARIMA模型在中国航空旅客运输量预测中的比较研究

我国航空运输市场近几年保持持续高速增长态势,国内的航空公司、机场及相关企业有着很大的发展空间。对航空旅客运输量作出准确的预测是相关企业和部门准确把握行业发展趋势,制定正确竞争和投资战略的基础和前提。根据航空旅客运输量趋势性和季节性较强的数据特点,分别使用季节ARIMA模型和加法模型下Holt Winters方法,对中国航空旅客运输量作出了预测,并将预测结果加以比较。

综合Winters模型和ARMA模型预测GDP

以广东省GDP的时间序列数据为依据,分别应用Winters模型和ARMA模型以及加权综合这两个模型的方法对其进行季度性GDP值的短期预测,通过比较由不同方法得出的预测结果的绝对百分误差的大小,选择出绝对百分误差最小的方法·

航线需求预测的一种改进Winters方法

提高航线需求预测精度是航空客运收益管理系统的重要研究课题.提出一种首先运用EM算法对航线历史订座数据中由于受资源限制而没有被满足的需求进行修复,取得更为准确的需求数据,然后,针对航班销售具有提前预订的特点,将航线历史订座数据整合成一个提前日矩阵,使预测时能够利用更多的已知信息并减少了计算数据量,最后再运用Winters模型进行预测的航线需求预测方法.以成都到广州航线历史数据为例仿真计算,预测结果的平均误差为4.9%,而直接采用winters法进行预测的平均误差为21.7%,验证了算法的可行性和有效性.

应用holt-winters加法模型预测出院人次

目的分析holt-winters加法模型预测出院人次的效果。方法使用Eviews6.0软件,采用holt-winters加法模型预测,并与单参数指数平滑方法的计算结果进行比较。结果加法模型拟合效果很好,加法模型的均方误差较单参数平滑方法小。结论 holt-winters加法模型适用于预测出院人次序列。

基于Holt-Winters与最小二乘支持向量机的混合预测模型

为了提高地下水埋深时间序列的预测精度,本文应用Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑法作为预测模型,使用最小二乘支持向量机对残差序列进行预测。由于核参数和惩罚因子在很大程度上直接影响了最小二乘支持向量机的预测性能,本文选用果蝇优化算法对其参数进行优化选取,该方法不仅能够建立最优的混合预测模型,而且能够很好地捕获地下水埋深序列的非线性特征。选用甘肃民勤县大坝乡城西八社地下水监测站点的数据来验证所建模型的预测性能,实验结果表明与传统的单一预测方法相比,本文所建混合预测模型提高了预测精度。

基于小波变换和季节性Holt-Winters模型的短期负荷预测方法

精准的负荷预测对售电公司在电力市场中的运行起着十分重要的作用,而企业用户的负荷受多种因素的影响具有不平稳的特性,对此,提出了基于离散小波分解和粒子群优化的季节性Holt⁃Winters模型的短期负荷预测方法。针对原始负荷序列周期性不平稳的特性,利用离散小波变换对原始负荷序列进行分解,并采用季节性Holt⁃Winters模型进行预测,同时借助小波去噪和粒子群算法进一步提高预测模型的准确性。小波去噪在过滤原始数据中潜在的噪声的同时,对数据进行平滑处理,而粒子群算法能让Holt⁃Winters模型在训练过程找到最优参数。采用该模型来预测具有不同变化趋势的日负荷曲线,结果表明所提出的模型具有较高的预测精度,可适用于不同用电类型的用户负荷短期预测。

Winters模型在保费收入预测中的应用——以大连市寿险原保险保费收入预测为例

以大连市寿险原保险保费收入的时间序列数据为依据,分别应用Winters加法模型和Winters乘法模型的方法对其进行月度保费收入值的预测,通过比较由不同方法得出的预测结果的绝对百分误差的大小,选择出绝对百分误差最小的方法。

Holt-Winters模型在卷烟预测中的应用

提出基于Holt-Winters卷烟预测模型,对该预测模型设计了相应的算法,并以实际数据为例验证了Holt-Winters模型预测方法的有效性和实用性。

基于Winters乘法模型的中国邮政包件数预测分析

中国邮政包件数是中国邮政业务量的主要指标之一,能够反映出中国邮政业务在市场中的地位。近年来,受到顺丰、中通、圆通、申通、韵达等公司的影响,中国邮政的包件数月度数据呈现趋势性下降并伴随季节性波动时间序列。为此,文中采用SPSS统计分析软件,以2012年1月至2018年12月邮政业务量包件数为原始数据,建立winters乘法模型,对2019年每月中国快递业务量的包件数进行预测,并与2019年1月至6月包件数实际数据进行比较,得出的结果显示预测精度较高,可以为相关部门决策提供依据。

COOL COMMITMENT TO 2022 China is gearing up to host an unforgettable Beijing 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Games to ignite wintersports enthusiasm around the world

The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games are only a year away.Three years ago,at the closing ceremony of the 23rd Winter Olympics in PyeongChang,South Korea,Chinese President Xi Jinping extended a warm invitation to people from all over the world:“See you in Beijing in 2022!”He pledged that Beijing would strive to deliver on its commitment to present an exciting,extraordinary,and outstanding Winter Olympic Games.

Interannual evolution of the chemical composition,sources and processes of PM_(2.5)in Chengdu,China:Insights from observations in four winters

The air quality in China has improved significantly in the last decade and,correspondingly,the characteristics of PM_(2.5)have also changed.We studied the interannual variation of PM_(2.5)in Chengdu,one of the most heavily polluted megacities in southwest China,during the most polluted season(winter).Our results show that the mass concentrations of PM_(2.5)decreased significantly year-by-year,from 195.8±91.0μg/m~3in winter 2016 to 96.1±39.3μg/m^(3)in winter 2020.The mass concentrations of organic matter(OM),SO_()4^(2-),NH_(4)^(+)and NO_(3)^(-)decreased by 49.6%,57.1%,49.7% and 28.7%,respectively.The differential reduction in the concentrations of chemical components increased the contributions from secondary organic carbon and NO_(3)^(-)and there was a larger contribution from mobile sources.The contribution of OM and NO_(3)^(-)not only increased with increasing levels of pollution,but also increased year-by-year at the same level of pollution.Four sources of PM_(2.5)were identified:combustion sources,vehicular emissions,dust and secondary aerosols.Secondary aerosols made the highest contribution and increased year-by-year,from 40.6%in winter 2016 to 46.3% in winter 2020.By contrast,the contribution from combustion sources decreased from 14.4% to 8.7%.Our results show the effectiveness of earlier pollution reduction policies and emphasizes that priority should be given to key pollutants(e.g.,OM and NO_(3)^(-))and sources(secondary aerosols and vehicular emissions)in future policies for the reduction of pollution in Chengdu during the winter months.

Mechanism and effects of the increase in winter temperatures in the Arctic region on cold winters in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China for the period 1961-2018

With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily increasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corresponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit(CRU)re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1)during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2)Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang.

Winter wheat yield improvement by genetic gain across different provinces in China

The replacement of winter wheat varieties has contributed significantly to yield improvement worldwide,with remarkable progress in China.Drawing on two sets of data,production yield from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and experimental yield from literature,this study aims to(1)illustrate the increasing patterns of production yield among different provinces from 1978 to 2018 in China,(2)explore the genetic gain in yield and yield relevant traits through the variety replacement based on experimental yield from 1937 to 2016 in China,and(3)compare the yield gap between experimental yield and production yield.The results show that both the production and experimental yields significantly increased along with the variety replacement.The national annual yield increase ratio for the production yield was 1.67%from 1978 to 2018,varying from 0.96%in Sichuan Province to 2.78%in Hebei Province;such ratio for the experimental yield was 1.13%from 1937 to 2016.The yield gap between experimental and production yields decreased from the 1970s to the 2010s.This study reveals significant increases in some yield components consequent to variety replacement,including thousand-grain weight,kernel number per spike,and grain number per square meter;however,no change is shown in spike number per square meter.The biomass and harvest index consistently and significantly increased,whereas the plant height decreased significantly.

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and continents.The consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal winter.In this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North America.Despite some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming trend.Specifically,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since 1991.Moreover,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

The first factor affecting dryland winter wheat grain yield under various mulching measures: Spike number

Water is the key factor limiting dryland wheat grain yield.Mulching affects crop yield and yield components by affecting soil moisture.Further research is needed to determine the relationships between yield components and soil moisture with yield,and to identify the most important factor affecting grain yield under various mulching measures.A long-term 9-yearifeld experiment in the Loess Plateau of Northwest China was carried out with three treatments:no mulch (CK),plastic mulch (M_(P)) and straw mulch (M_(S)).Yield factors and soil moisture were measured,and the relationships between them were explored by correlation analysis,structural equation modeling and significance analysis.The results showed that compared with CK,the average grain yields of M_(P) and M_(S) increased by 13.0and 10.6%,respectively.The average annual grain yield of the M_(P) treatment was 134 kg ha^(–1) higher than the M_(S) treatment.There were no significant differences in yield components among the three treatments (P<0.05).Soil water storage of the M_(S) treatment was greater than the M_(P) treatment,although the differences were not statistically signifiant.Soil water storage during the summer fallow period (SWSSF) and soil water storage before sowing (SWSS) of M_(S) were significantly higher than in CK,which increased by 38.5 and 13.6%,respectively.The relationship between M_(P) and CK was not statistically significant for SWSSF,but the SWSS in M_(P) was significantly higher than in CK.In terms of soil water storage after harvest (SWSH) and water consumption in the growth period(ET),there were no signi?cant differences among the three treatments.Based on the three analysis methods,we found that spike number and ET were positively correlated with grain yield.However,the relative importance of spike number to yield was the greatest in the M_(P )and M_(S) treatments,while that of ET was the greatest in CK.Suifcient SWSSF could indirectly increase spike number and ET in the three treatments.Based on these results,mulch can improve yield and soil water storage.The most important factor affecting the grain yield of dryland wheat was spike number under mulching,and ET with CK.These findings may help us to understand the main factors influencing dryland wheat grain yield under mulching conditions compared to CK.

Spectral purification improves monitoring accuracy of the comprehensive growth evaluation index for film-mulched winter wheat

In order to further improve the utility of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)remote-sensing for quickly and accurately monitoring the growth of winter wheat under film mulching, this study examined the treatments of ridge mulching,ridge–furrow full mulching, and flat cropping full mulching in winter wheat.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method, four agronomic parameters (leaf area index, above-ground biomass, plant height, and leaf chlorophyll content) were used to calculate the comprehensive growth evaluation index (CGEI) of the winter wheat, and 14 visible and near-infrared spectral indices were calculated using spectral purification technology to process the remote-sensing image data of winter wheat obtained by multispectral UAV.Four machine learning algorithms, partial least squares, support vector machines, random forests, and artificial neural network networks(ANN), were used to build the winter wheat growth monitoring model under film mulching, and accuracy evaluation and mapping of the spatial and temporal distribution of winter wheat growth status were carried out.The results showed that the CGEI of winter wheat under film mulching constructed using the FCE method could objectively and comprehensively evaluate the crop growth status.The accuracy of remote-sensing inversion of the CGEI based on the ANN model was higher than for the individual agronomic parameters, with a coefficient of determination of 0.75,a root mean square error of 8.40, and a mean absolute value error of 6.53.Spectral purification could eliminate the interference of background effects caused by mulching and soil, effectively improving the accuracy of the remotesensing inversion of winter wheat under film mulching, with the best inversion effect achieved on the ridge–furrow full mulching area after spectral purification.The results of this study provide a theoretical reference for the use of UAV remote-sensing to monitor the growth status of winter wheat with film mulching.

创伤性冠状动脉血肿致de Winter综合征心电图动态演变1例

创伤性冠状动脉(冠脉)血肿临床罕见,de Winter综合征是一种特殊类型的急性冠脉综合征。本文报道新昌县人民医院诊治的创伤性冠脉血肿致de Winter综合征,且心电图呈动态演变1例,其冠脉病变经冠脉造影及血管内超声(IVUS)证实。

Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies

Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability,which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early(November-December)and late(January-February)winter.In early winter,precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern China.In contrast,the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes,manifesting as a dipole spatial distribution.The noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies.During the early winter of El Niño years,anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region,enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China,thus contributing to more precipitation there.During the late winter of El Niño years,the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened,while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates,which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation distribution.Roughly the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña winters.Further analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late winter.These results have important implications for the seasonal-tointerannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.