Heterogeneity and non-linearity of ecosystem responses to climate change in the Qilian Mountains National Park, China

Ecosystem responses to climate change,particularly in arid environments,is an understudied topic.This study conducted a spatial analysis of ecosystem responses to short-term variability in temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation in the Qilian Mountains National Park,an arid mountainous region in Northwest China.We collected precipitation and temperature data from the National Science and Technology Infrastructure Platform,solar radiation data from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset,and vegetation cover remote-sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.We used the vegetation sensitivity index to identify areas sensitive to climate change and to determine which climatic factors were significant in this regard.The findings revealed a high degree of heterogeneity and non-linearity of ecosystem responses to climate change.Four types of heterogeneity were identified:longitude,altitude,ecosystem,and climate disturbance.Furthermore,the characteristics of nonlinear ecosystem responses to climate change included:(1)inconsistency in the controlling climatic factors for the same ecosystems in different geographical settings;(2)the interaction between different climatic factors results in varying weights that affect ecosystem stability and makes them difficult to determine;and(3)the hysteresis effect of vegetation increases the uncertainty of ecosystem responses to climate change.The findings are significant because they highlight the complexity of ecosystem responses to climate change.Furthermore,the identification of areas that are particularly sensitive to climate change and the influencing factors has important implications for predicting and managing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems,which can help protect the stability of ecosystems in the Qilian Mountains National Park.

Perception of Local Populations of Bouba-Ndjidda National Park on Indigenous Knowledge and the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity Conservation

This study deals with the perceptions of indigenous knowledge in the field of conservation and the impact of climate change on biodiversity in the peripheral villages of the Bouba-Ndjidda National Park (PNBN), Department of Mayo-Rey, Cameroon. To this end, 23 out of 70 villages in the study area were selected, for a sample of 368 households surveyed through a questionnaire addressed to the heads of households. Data collection took place from August 27 to December 22, 2022. The results reveal that 70.7% of the population living near the PNBN practice agriculture as their main income-generating activity, followed by livestock (23.3%) and trade (6%). Knowledge in the field of the conservation of natural resources is rooted in occultism through rituals and sacrifices (99.50%) offered to the geniuses of nature and prohibitions on the felling of trees and sacred animals (13.00%). The populations perceive climate change through the variation of the seasons (97.60%), the increase in temperature (84.80%), the reduction in the duration of the rainy seasons (54.60%), the drop in agricultural yield (84.80%) and floods (74.70%). The consequence of these changes on wildlife is the disappearance of animal species such as the Rhinoceros, the Wild Dog, the Cheetah and the Ostrich. In order to cope with climate change, the natives have developed strategies such as the adoption of early crop varieties (maize, millet, soybeans, etc.), the reorganization of the agricultural calendar, the practice of reforestation, extension of field surfaces, the cessation of excessive deforestation and uncontrolled bush fires, the construction of fired brick houses, the practice of irrigation, seasonal migration and occultism. This indigenous knowledge is a perfect adaptation to climate change and makes it possible to better take into account the vision of local populations in the conservation of biodiversity.

Available parking space occupancy change characteristics and short-term forecasting model

Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.

Vegetation change as related to terrain factors at two glacier forefronts, Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

Glacier recession is a globally occurring trend. Although a rich body of work has documented glacial response to climate warming, few studies have assessed vegetation cover change in recently deglaciated areas, especially using geospatial technologies. Here, vegetation change at two glacier forefronts in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.was quantified through remote sensing analysis,fieldwork validation, and statistical modeling.Specifically, we assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of landcover change at the two glacier forefronts in Glacier National Park and determined the role of selected biophysical terrain factors(elevation, slope, aspect, solar radiation, flow accumulation, topographic wetness index, and surficial geology) on vegetation change(from nonvegetated to vegetated cover) at the deglaciated areas.Landsat imagery of the study locations in 1991, 2003,and 2015 were classified and validated using visual interpretation. Model results revealed geographic differences in biophysical correlates of vegetation change between the study areas, suggesting that terrain variation is a key factor affecting spatialtemporal patterns of vegetation change. At Jackson Glacier forefront, increases in vegetation over some portion or all of the study period were negatively associated with elevation, slope angle, and consolidated bedrock. At Grinnell Glacier forefront,increases in vegetation associated negatively with elevation and positively with solar radiation.Integrated geospatial and field approaches to the study of vegetation change in recently deglaciated terrain are recommended to understand and monitor processes and patterns of ongoing habitat change in rapidly changing mountain environments.

A Concise Analysis of Semantic Changes in Address Terms——Taking“xiaoji?”and“tóngzhì”as Examples

Prevalent address terms are dynamic along the timeline of social development. Despite the newly-emerged forms like"meinü"and"shuaige", meanings of"xi?oji?"and"tóngzhì"have also experienced a discursive history. And different meanings in different historical periods reflect changes in social life and the evolution of people's mind, or precisely, people's cognition. It gives a brief discussion of these semantic changes and probes tentatively some reasons both sociologically and cognitively.

Gendered Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change among Lo­cal Communities Living around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda

Climate change affects both men and women which,in turn,shapes their varied and contrasting perceptions of climate variability and change.This paper examined the gendered perceptions of climate variability and change among local communities in Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda.The objectives are threefold:-identify climatic shocks faced by the local communities;examine the perceptions of men and women of climate variability and change;and to compare their perceptions with empirical meteorological data.This study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods,with data collected from 215 respondents using survey,interviews and focused group discussions.From the findings,indicators of climate variability and change included reduced flooding events,occurrence of human diseases,increasing crop pests and diseases,dry spells and intensity of rains.There was increasing significant temperatures while rainfall was declining.Both male and female significantly associated with increasing temperatures and reduced flooding events.While climatic shocks affected both males and females,the impact was more pronounced depending on distinct livelihood activities and roles and responsibilities undertaken.The study concluded that people’s perceptions of climate change should be taken on by the government and integrated in the national climate programs that support people’s livelihoods and survival mechanisms.

气候变化背景下大熊猫生境适宜性时空演变——以大熊猫国家公园岷山片区为例

气候变化导致的物种分布范围变化已对全球生物多样性保护造成严重威胁。为探讨气候变化对珍稀动物大熊猫的影响,研究以大熊猫国家公园岷山片区为例,筛选得到326个大熊猫痕迹点及气候、地形地貌、生物环境、人为干扰4类16项环境变量,应用最大熵模型及CMIP6气候模式数据探讨影响大熊猫分布的主要环境变量,并模拟现在(2004—2020年),预测未来(2050s)低强迫(SSP1-2.6)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)情景下的大熊猫生境,分析生境适宜性的时空演变特征及趋势。结果表明:(1)气候类变量对岷山片区大熊猫分布有较大影响,其中最暖月最高温(Bio5)、海拔、最暖季度降水量(Bio18)及距道路距离是主要的影响变量;(2)现在气候下,岷山片区生境质量良好,适宜生境面积占片区总面积的67.88%,未来大熊猫适宜生境面积整体呈缩减趋势,SSP1-2.6情景下大熊猫适宜生境面积缩减率为2.03%,SSP5-8.5情景下为33.73%;(3)SSP1-2.6情景下,适宜生境丧失区主要位于岷山片区东部,SSP5-8.5情景下,片区北部和南部也有大量生境丧失。两种未来气候情景下,新增生境均主要位于片区西北部;(4)大熊猫适宜生境的质心向西、西北方向,即高纬度、高海拔区域移动;(5)大熊猫主要在高、中适宜生境活动,现在气候下大熊猫在高、中适宜生境出现的频率分别为67.79%、24.23%,SSP1-2.6情景下为45.09%、27.61%,SSP5-8.5情景下为21.47%、26.69%。研究认为未来亟需关注气候变化下大熊猫生境的丧失和新增区,建议大熊猫国家公园从识别优先保护区、优化生态网络和调整管控分区三个方面加强对大熊猫生境的监测和保护,综合提升区域的气候适应能力。

习近平关于气候变化全球治理的重要论述及其启示

习近平以马克思主义人与自然关系思想为理论根基,从“和合共生”的中华智慧中汲取营养,立足中国应对气候变化的探索实践,围绕气候变化全球治理这一时代课题作出一系列重要论述。习近平明确了气候变化全球治理要坚持人与自然是辩证统一关系的科学认识,要协调人与人、人与自然的关系;主张坚持公平正义的价值取向,构建公平合理、合作共赢的全球气候治理体系;强调气候变化全球治理的大国担当,以中国在气候变化全球治理中的担当来促进应对气候变化的国际合作;提出绿色低碳可持续的发展道路,指明气候变化全球治理的实践方向。习近平关于气候变化全球治理的重要论述彰显了哲学思维和哲学智慧,其重要启示在于:新时代我们应该坚持以人为本维护全球气候正义;坚持共商共建共享的理念,推进全球气候治理秩序迈向公正合理;深入认识人与自然的辩证统一关系,创建人与自然和谐共生新格局,构建“人与自然生命共同体”引领全球生态文明建设。

耶鲁大学藏心耕堂本《引痘略》研究

《引痘略》是广东南海邱熺于1817年编写的一部论述接种牛痘的医籍。至19世纪末,该书几乎遍传全国,现存版本不下76个。出版于同治元年(1862)的心耕堂本,由邱熺之子邱昶重镌,存世数量极少,现已知仅有山西本、广图本和耶鲁本。着重介绍耶鲁本的版本特征,以及其与广图本及1862年前出版的多种《引痘略》版本的区别,并从全国暴发疫情、种痘得到官方资助以及抵制假冒三个方面探讨了心耕堂本的出版背景,以及从版面和内容设计显示邱氏种痘的正统地位、他者叙事展示邱氏的仁术神功和奉献精神、五世作者群体彰显弥久善心等方面探讨了该书的编纂特点。

成都人民公园空间的层积分析及变迁动因研究

成都人民公园是中国重要的近现代城市公园遗产之一,是见证城市发展与公共需求变化的重要城市历史公园,具有不可忽视的城市历史景观遗产价值。采用历史层积分析对成都人民公园发展脉络进行梳理,将其空间历史变迁分为普通游园初创、传统公园转型、现代公园建设、现代公园完善和公园城市营造5个时期,整理各时期形态与功能变迁,探寻其变迁的内在动力。将公园的层积关系分为反复、重建、共存和成长4种主要模式,探索公园建设的层积变化:基于自然条件,综合历史事件、治园观念、文化活动和人群变化等因素,公园空间形态由封闭、单一和无序转向开放、多元和有序,承担职能从功能杂乱的小游园转化为集休闲、文化、健身和爱国教育为一体的综合性园林。分析成都人民公园空间的历史变迁动因与机制,能够为中国近现代城市公园遗产保护与发展补充实证,为当代城市公园文脉与底蕴的探寻提供参考。

重大公共卫生事件驱动下国外城市公园绿地需求变化启示

根据多个国家和地区调查研究结果,在以全球性新冠疫情大流行为标志的突发公共卫生事件冲击下,国内外学者普遍认识到城市公园绿地的使用需求向“生活必需品”方向转化的客观事实;同时还发现,具有出色服务模式、社区凝聚力以及健康作用和公平可达等优势的城市公园绿地在新冠疫情期间呈现出城市“重要生命线”的独特属性。在此基础上,总结出以上新价值的认识对未来城市公园绿地规划设计产生的影响:1)服务向下游覆盖,关注点从使用权向邻近性转移,公园绿地供给和分配的公平性要求凸显;2)注重人均面积向关注可获得性转变,尤其是作为健康服务功能和生活必备资源的可获得性及可达性受到重视;3)重视公园绿地的社会性作用,其社会韧性和协同作用在重大突发公共卫生事件中受到广泛关注。最后,针对我国未来城市公园绿地建设提出几点启示,即以社区为单位完善城市公园绿地体系、注重增强独立社区内部公园绿地空间的开放与融合性、注重发掘并弘扬我国人居空间环境的社会协同性作用。

得体乎?未得乎?——宋明理学对邵雍“老子得易之体”一语的讨论与争辩

伴随着理学的兴起与发展,尊儒教、辟异端(主要指释老之学)成为理学家的重要任务.对于老子其人其学,北宋邵雍有一句评语曰“老子知易之体”,此语后被朱熹转述为“老子得易之体”.邵雍的体用论自成一系,与程朱所秉持的“体用一源”的体用论并不相同.“老子知易之体”表达的是老子得易之虚体而未得易之神用.在未深究邵雍体用论的前提下,后世儒者将该语带入“体用一源”的框架内进行理解,将邵雍之意理解为扬老抑儒.朱熹、胡居仁、湛若水、纪大奎等人对此语严加攻驳,而王畿、田艺蘅等人则各辟蹊径,对邵雍之说加以肯定.老子究竟得“易之体”与否?其人其学究竟是体用兼该还是有体无用?这些问题在理学家群体中所引发的持久争辩,反映的是学者对易学主旨、儒道优劣、皇王正道与权谋智术之关系等问题的不同理解.

习近平法治思想中的“大变局”应对方略论

“大变局”应对方略是习近平法治思想立足于“百年未有之大变局”的科学论断,针对积极应对世界大变局的现实需要所彰显之实效导向型共识。其作为一种凸显执行性遵守之行动整合的共同准则与依据,往往围绕建立健全涉外法治体系和营造国际法治新秩序这两种应对方略而具体展开。法治体系应对方略主要表征为建立健全涉外法治体系的原则表达、目标设定与核心要素,法治秩序应对方略则主要表征为营造国际法治新秩序的目标设定、方案要义与路径导向。基于此,全面梳理习近平法治思想中的“大变局”应对方略样态,能够为涉外法治工作的有效推动提供系统的类型化指引。

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的独特内涵与本质规定——基于社会主义初级阶段动态演进视角的考察

中国特色社会主义是当代中国的社会主义。社会主义初级阶段,是建设中国特色社会主义必须经历的长达百年的特殊发展阶段。社会主义初级阶段是一个动态、阶梯式递进、日益接近质的飞跃的量的积累的过程,是由首尾相连、前后相继的次级阶段共同构成的。进入新时代,意味着社会主义初级阶段和中国特色社会主义正在发生阶段性的局部质变。习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,是引领当代中国走出社会主义初级阶段、推进强国建设和民族复兴、实现中国特色社会主义局部质的飞跃的科学理论。

基于时间维度的城市公园人群活动研究——以深圳文心公园、四海公园、荔香公园为例

文章以时间、空间和人群活动为切入点,对深圳市南山区文心公园、四海公园、荔香公园的人群活动情况展开了调研,对时间维度下城市公园人群活动的人群构成特征、空间分布特征、活动变化特征进行了分析,解析了影响城市公园活动人群活动的因素。最后,基于调研和分析的结果,对城市公园的设计如何适应不同时段下不同人群的活动需要提出了建议。

论资本逻辑对“气候新陈代谢”的撕裂

工业革命时期,马克思对受资本主义工业化推动的资本主义农业进行了批判,指明资本主义生产方式不仅扭曲了人与自然的和谐关系,而且与工商业联合起来撕裂了农业生态系统的物质变换,同时这一裂痕随着生态恶化渗透进社会发展的各个领域。进入21世纪,资本逻辑主导的“新陈代谢断裂”致使全球气候问题逼近临界阈值,不仅使自然界、劳动者彻底沦为资本增殖的异化工具,更通过气候帝国主义加剧了治理领域的不平等。习近平生态文明思想则从生产、治理、合作三重领域突破了资本主义发展模式禁锢的牢笼,强调营造人与自然和谐共生的良好氛围、致力于构建全人类生态命运共同体、最终实现生态的可持续发展。

A Tentative Study on the Combination of Site Protection and City Construction of Xi'an

The protection of relic sites helps determine the culture coordinate of a city or a region,and enhances its cultural image and status.Through analyzing the construction features and technical means of various ruins parks in Xi'an including Daming Palace National Heritage Park,Qujiangchi Ruins Park,Hanyao Ruins Park,Dacien Temple Ruins Park,Tang Dynasty City Wall Ruins Park,Emperor Qin Ⅱ Mausoleum Ruins Park and so on,a new model combining the site protection with city construction is presented.By integrating cultural relics preservation,heritage protection with innovation,a series of ruins parks processed with deep cultural connotation are constructed,which not only protects the relics and refreshes the city construction,but also well reflects the essence of traditional Chinese culture unique charm of ancient oriental civilization.The well combination of site protection and city construction improves the cultural image and status of the city,enhances the charm of public cultural space,promotes the development of heritage protection and secures more funds for urban and rural construction.

若羌稀长沟锂矿体特征及成矿潜力分析

随着全球能源结构的转型和新能源技术的飞速发展,锂作为关键原材料,在电池、电动汽车、储能等领域的应用日益广泛。中国经济的持续发展和产业结构的优化升级,使锂矿需求量不断增长[1]。新疆地矿局第三地质大队新厘定的阿尔金锂铍稀有金属成矿带是近年来该区域成矿研究的重大突破之一,通过对该成矿带上新发现的若羌县稀长沟锂矿成矿地质背景、矿体规模、特征分析研究,对矿区资源量进行估算,认为其具有大型-超大型锂矿远景潜力。

苏锡常都市圈职教样板建设:价值贡献、现实困境和提升策略

苏锡常都市圈作为中国经济最活跃的地区之一,其职业教育的发展对于推动区域经济转型升级具有重要意义。文章通过分析苏锡常都市圈职教样板建设任务和建设成效,探讨了苏锡常都市圈职教高质量发展样板的价值贡献以及现实困境,提出固底板、锻长板、补短板等对策与建议,旨在进一步推动苏锡常都市圈职业教育协同创新、一体化高质量发展。

祁连山国家公园酒泉片区多年气候变化对生态结构的影响研究

祁连山国家公园位于甘肃省与青海省的交界处,地处青藏高原东北部边缘,自然资源丰富。为了明确祁连山国家公园酒泉片区生态结构变化趋势,结合2006—2021年Landsat卫星影像数据,运用归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)建立解译样本集,应用eCognition软件与ArcGIS软件人机交互的解译方式,研究冰川与积雪、草地、河流水面、内陆滩涂、裸岩、湖泊水面、沙地和建设用地等地类的变化。同时,结合研究区2006—2021年温度、湿度、降雨量和蒸发量等数据,运用偏最小二乘法建立祁连山国家公园酒泉片区生态结构变化回归模型,结合MATLAB软件定量模拟分析16年间气候变化对区域生态结构的影响,从而更好地推进区域生态文明建设,保护祁连山生物多样性,维护自然生态系统原真性与完整性。