Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model

Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.

Assessment of sediment connectivity using modelling and field-based approaches in the Slavíč River catchment(MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts,Czech Republic)

Mountain streams act as conveyors of sediments within the river continuum,where the physical transport of sediments between river reaches through the catchment or between individual parts(e.g.,between hillslopes and channels)of the catchment is assumed.This study focused on sediment connectivity analysis in the SlavíčRiver catchment in the MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts in the eastern part of the Czech Republic.The connectivity index and connectivity index target modelling were combined with an analysis of anthropogenic interventions.Additionally,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis were used to obtain information about connectivity in the catchment.Based on the analysis and obtained results,terrain topography is the current main driving factor affecting the connectivity of sediment movement in the SlavíčRiver catchment.However,the modelling provided valuable information about high sediment connectivity despite different recent land use conditions(highly forested area of the catchment)than those in historical times from the 16th to 19th centuries when the SlavíčRiver catchment was highly deforested and sediment connectivity was probably higher.The analysis of anthropogenic interventions,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis revealed more deceleration of sediment movement through the catchment,decreased sediment connectivity with bed erosion,and gradual river channel process transformation in some reaches.Field mapping has identified various natural formations and human-induced changes impacting the longitudinal and lateral connectivity in the SlavíčRiver.For instance,embankments along 48%of the river's length,both on the right and left banks,significantly hinder lateral sediment supply to the channel.Stream power index analysis indicates increased energy levels in the flowing water in the river's upper reaches(up to 404.8 W m^(-2)).This high energy is also observed in certain downstream sections(up to 337.6 W m^(-2)),where it is influenced by human activities.These conditions lead to intensified erosion processes,playing a crucial role in sediment connectivity.Similar observations were described in recent studies that pointed out the long-term human interventions on many streams draining European mountains,where a decrease in sediment connectivity in these streams is linked with sediment deficits and the transformation of processes forming channels.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Vulnerability assessment of coastal wetlands in Minjiang River Estuary based on cloud model under sea level rise

The change of coastal wetland vulnerability affects the ecological environment and the economic development of the estuary area.In the past,most of the assessment studies on the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems stayed in static qualitative research,lacking predictability,and the qualitative and quantitative relationship was not objective enough.In this study,the“Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence”model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability definition were used to analyze the main impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on coastal wetland ecosystem in Minjiang River Estuary.The results show that:(1)With the increase of time and carbon emission,the area of high vulnerability and the higher vulnerability increased continuously,and the area of low vulnerability and the lower vulnerability decreased.(2)The eastern and northeastern part of the Culu Island in the Minjiang River Estuary of Fujian Province and the eastern coastal wetland of Meihua Town in Changle District are areas with high vulnerability risk.The area of high vulnerability area of coastal wetland under high emission scenario is wider than that under low emission scenario.(3)Under different sea level rise scenarios,elevation has the greatest impact on the vulnerability of coastal wetlands,and slope has less impact.The impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Minjiang River Estuary is mainly manifested in the sea level rise,which changes the habitat elevation and daily flooding time of coastal wetlands,and then affects the survival and distribution of coastal wetland ecosystems.

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

基于River 2D模型的黄河花园口河段生态流量研究

针对目前生态流量研究方法难以充分考虑鱼类栖息地等生境因素的问题,以黄河花园口鲤鱼核心保护区为研究区域,选取黄河鲤鱼为研究物种,基于耦合水动力学模型和栖息地模型的River 2D模型确定黄河鲤鱼的生态流量,将水深和流速作为鱼类生存保护的限定性因子,采用栖息地模型模拟不同流量下对应的黄河鲤鱼的适宜栖息地面积。计算结果表明:花园口河段鲤鱼产卵期的最小生态流量为230 m^(3)/s,生长期的最小生态流量为430 m^(3)/s,越冬期的最小生态流量为150 m^(3)/s。计算结果可以为花园口核心鱼类保护区的鱼类保护以及黄河小浪底水库的生态调度提供参考。

Spatial Heterogeneity of Embedded Water Consumption from the Perspective of Virtual Water Surplus and Deficit in the Yellow River Basin,China

Virtual water trade(VWT)provides a new perspective for alleviating water crisis and has thus attracted widespread attention.However,the heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside the river basin and its influencing factors remains further study.In this study,for better investigating the pattern and heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin in 2015 using the input-output model(MRIO),we proposed two new concepts,i.e.,virtual water surplus and virtual water deficit,and then used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model to identify the inherent mechanism of the imbalance of virtual water trade between provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin and the other four regions in China.The results show that:1)in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,the less developed the economy was,the larger the contribution of the agricultural sector in virtual water trade,while the smaller the contribution of the industrial sector.2)Due to the large output of agricultural products,the upstream and midstream provincial regions of the Yellow River Basin had a virtual water surplus,with a net outflow of virtual water of 2.7×10^(8) m^(3) and 0.9×10^(8) m^(3),respectively.3)provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin were in a virtual water deficit with the rest of China,and the decisive factor was the active degree of trade with the outside.This study would be beneficial to illuminate the trade-related water use issues in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,which has farreaching practical signific-ance for alleviating water scarcity.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.

Influence of varied drought types on soil conservation service within the framework of climate change:insights from the Jinghe River Basin,China

Severe soil erosion and drought are the two main factors affecting the ecological security of the Loess Plateau,China.Investigating the influence of drought on soil conservation service is of great importance to regional environmental protection and sustainable development.However,there is little research on the coupling relationship between them.In this study,focusing on the Jinghe River Basin,China as a case study,we conducted a quantitative evaluation on meteorological,hydrological,and agricultural droughts(represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Runoff Index(SRI),and Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI),respectively)using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,and quantified the soil conservation service using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)in the historical period(2000-2019)and future period(2026-2060)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).We further examined the influence of the three types of drought on soil conservation service at annual and seasonal scales.The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)dataset was used to predict and model the hydrometeorological elements in the future period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results showed that in the historical period,annual-scale meteorological drought exhibited the highest intensity,while seasonal-scale drought was generally weakest in autumn and most severe in summer.Drought intensity of all three types of drought will increase over the next 40 years,with a greater increase under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario.Furthermore,the intra-annual variation in the drought intensity of the three types of drought becomes smaller under the two future scenarios relative to the historical period(2000-2019).Soil conservation service exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by high levels in the southwest and southeast and lower levels in the north,and this pattern has remained consistent both in the historical and future periods.Over the past 20 years,the intra-annual variation indicated peak soil conservation service in summer and lowest level in winter;the total soil conservation of the Jinghe River Basin displayed an upward trend,with the total soil conservation in 2019 being 1.14 times higher than that in 2000.The most substantial impact on soil conservation service arises from annual-scale meteorological drought,which remains consistent both in the historical and future periods.Additionally,at the seasonal scale,meteorological drought exerts the highest influence on soil conservation service in winter and autumn,particularly under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Compared to the historical period,the soil conservation service in the Jinghe River Basin will be significantly more affected by drought in the future period in terms of both the affected area and the magnitude of impact.This study conducted beneficial attempts to evaluate and predict the dynamic characteristics of watershed drought and soil conservation service,as well as the response of soil conservation service to different types of drought.Clarifying the interrelationship between the two is the foundation for achieving sustainable development in a relatively arid and severely eroded area such as the Jinghe River Basin.

Prediction of the environmental fate and aquatic ecological impact of nitrobenzene in the Songhua River using the modified AQUATOX model

An accidental discharge of nitrobenzene happened in November 2005 in the Songhua River,China.The AQUATOX model was modified and adapted to simulate the time-dependent nitrobenzene distribution in this multimedia aquatic system and its potential ecological impacts.Nitrobenzene concentrations in flowing water,sediment,and biota were predicted.Based on the initial concentrations of nitrobenzene observed in the field during the accidental discharge,that is,0.167-1.47 mg/L at different river segments, the predic...

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

A distributed runoff model for inland mountainous river basin of Northwest China

In order to predict the futuristic runoff under global warming, and to approach to the effects of vegetation on the ecological environment of the inland river mountainous watershed of Northwest China, the authors use the routine hydrometric data to create a distributed monthly model with some conceptual parameters, coupled with GIS and RS tools and data. The model takes sub-basin as the minimal confluent unit, divides the main soils of the basin into 3 layers, and identifies the vegetation types as forest and pasture. The data used in the model are precipitation, air temperature, runoff, soil weight water content, soil depth, soil bulk density, soil porosity, land cover, etc. The model holds that if the water amount is greater than the water content capacity, there will be surface runoff. The actual evaporation is proportional to the product of the potential evaporation and soil volume water content. The studied basin is Heihe mainstream mountainous basin, with a drainage area of 10,009 km 2 . The data used in this simulation are from Jan. 1980 to Dec. 1995, and the first 10 years' data are used to simulate, while the last 5 years' data are used to calibrate. For the simulation process, the Nash-Sutcliffe Equation, Balance Error and Explained Variance is 0.8681, 5.4008 and 0.8718 respectively, while for the calibration process, 0.8799, -0.5974 and 0.8800 respectively. The model results show that the futuristic runoff of Heihe river basin will increase a little. The snowmelt, glacier meltwater and the evaportranspiration will increase. The air temperature increment will make the permanent snow and glacier area diminish, and the snowline will rise. The vegetation, especially the forest in Heihe mountainous watershed, could lead to the evapotranspiration decrease of the watershed, adjust the runoff process, and increase the soil water content.

Using MaxEnt Model to Guide Marsh Conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

Incorporating private and working lands into protected area networks could mitigate the isolation state of protected areas(PAs) and improve the efficiency of conservation.But how to select patches of land for conservation is still a troublesome issue.In this study, the MaxEnt model and irreplaceability index were applied to guide marsh conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China.According to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions(i.e., the average AUC value = 0.933), the Wuyuer River and Zhalong marshes in the downstream reaches of Wuyuer River are the optimal habitat for the Red-crowned crane and migratory waterfowls.There are 22 marsh patches selected by the patch irreplaceability index for conservation, of which 12 patches had been included in the current network of protected areas.The other 10 patches of marsh(amounting to 1096 km^2) far from human disturbances with high NDVI(up to 0.8) and close distance to water(less than 100 m), which are excluded from the existing network of PAs, should be implemented conservation easement programs to improve the protection efficiency of conservation.Specifically, the marshes at Taha, Tangchi, and Lamadian should be given priority for conservation and restoration to reintroduce migratory waterfowls, as this would lessen the current isolation state of the Zhalong National Nature Reserve.

Assessment of wetland fragmentation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River by the type change tracker model

The quantitative research of wetland landscape fragmentation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River is important for the wetland and oasis sustainable development in the Hexi Corridor. Based on the data of remote sensing and GIS, we constructed the type change tracker model with sliding window technique and spatially mor- phological rule. The suitable scale and optimum scale of the fragmentation model of wetland landscape in the middle reaches of the Heihe River were determined by the area frequency statistics method, Chi-square distribution normal- ized scale variance, fractal dimension and diversity index. By integrating type change tracker model and the optimum scale with GIS spatial analysis, the spatial distribution characteristics of wetland landscape fragmentation in different periods and the related spatial-temporal change process were clarified. The results showed that （1） the type change tracker model, which analyzes the spatial pattern of wetland fragmentation on the pixel level, is better than the tradi- tional wetland fragmentation analysis on the landscape and patch levels; （2） The suitable scale for the wetland frag- mentation ranged from 150 rex150 m to 450 mx450 m and the optimum scale was 250 mx250 m in the middle reaches of the Heihe River; and （3） In the past 35 years, the total wetland area decreased by 23.2% and the frag- mentatJon of wetland markedly increased in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The areas of core wetlands re- duced by 12.8% and the areas of perforated, edge and patch wetlands increased by 0.8%, 3.1% and 8.9%, respec- tively. The process of wetland fragmentation in the research region showed the order of core wetland, perforated or edge wetland, patch wetland or non-wetland. The results of this study would provide a reference for the protection, utilization and restoration of limited wetland resources and for the sustainable development of the regional eco-environment in the Heihe River Basin.

Modeling of suspended sediment by coupled wave-current model in the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Estuary

A three-dimensional wave-current-sediment coupled numerical model is developed to understand the sediment transport dynamics in the Zhujiang(Pearl)River Estuary(ZRE),China.The model results are in good agreement with observed data,and statistics show good model skill scores.Numerical studies are conducted to assess the scenarios of suspended sediment in the ZRE under the effects of different forcing(river discharges,waves,and winds).The model results indicate that the estuarine gravitational circulation plays an important role in the development of estuarine turbidity maximum in the ZRE,particularly during neap tides.The increased river discharge can result in a seaward sediment transport.The suspended sediment concentration(SSC)in the bottom increases with both wave bottom orbital velocity and wave height.Because of the shallow water depth,the effect of waves on sediment in the west shoal is greater than that in the east channel.The southwesterly wind-induced wave affects the SSC more than those resulting from the northeasterly wind,while the northeasterly wind-driven circulation has a slightly greater influence on the SSC than that of the southwesterly wind.However,a steady southwesterly wind condition favors the increase of the SSC in the Lingding Bay more so than a steady northeasterly wind condition.If the other forcings are same,the averaged SSC under a steady southwesterly wind condition is about 1.1 times that resulting from a steady northeasterly wind.

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.

A model study of influence of circulation on the pollutant transport in the Zhujiang River Estuary and adjacent coastal waters

A tracer model with random diffusion coupled to the hydrodynamic model for the Zhujiang River Estuary (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) is to examine the effect of circulations on the transport of completely conservative pollutants. It is focused on answering the following questions: (1) What role does the estuarine plume front in the winter play in affecting the pollutants transport and its distribution in the PRE ? (2) What effect do the coastal currents driven by the monsoon have on the pollutants transport? The tracer experiment results show that: (1) the pollutant transport paths strongly depend on the circulation structures and plume frontal dynamics of the PRE and coastal waters; (2) during the summer when a southwesterly monsoon prevails, the pollutants from the four easterly river inlets and those from the bottom layer of offshore stations will greatly influence the water quality in Hong Kong waters, however, the pollutants released from the four westerly river-inlets will seldom affect the water qual