In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out ...In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.展开更多
基金Supported by Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHR-Y26)Innovation Project Fund of Wuhan Metropolitan Area Meteorological Joint Science and Technology(WHCSQY202305)+1 种基金Innovation and Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J019)Project of Huanggang Meteorological Bureau's Scientific Research(2022Y02).
文摘In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.
