River width and depth as key factors of diurnal activity energy expenditure allocation for wintering Spot-billed Ducks in the Xin'an River Basin

Rivers are important habitats for wintering waterbirds.However,they are easily influenced by natural and human activities.An important approach for waterbirds to adapt to habitats is adjusting the activity time and energy expenditure allocation of diurnal behavior.The compensatory foraging hypothesis predicts that increased energy expenditure leads to longer foraging time,which in turn increases food intake and helps maintain a constant energy balance.However,it is unclear whether human-disturbed habitats result in increased energy expenditure related to safety or foraging.In this study,the scan sample method was used to observe the diurnal behavior of the wintering Spot-billed Duck(Anas poecilorhyncha) in two rivers in the Xin’an River Basin from October 2021 to March 2022.The allocation of time and energy expenditure for activity in both normal and disturbed environments was calculated.The results showed that foraging accounted for the highest percentage of time and energy expenditure.Additionally,foraging decreased in the disturbed environment than that in the normal environment.Resting behavior showed the opposite trend,while other behaviors were similar in both environments.The total diurnal energy expenditure of ducks in the disturbed environment was greater than that in the normal environment,with decreased foraging and resting time percentage and increased behaviors related to immediate safety(swimming and alert) and comfort.These results oppose the compensatory foraging hypothesis in favor of increased security.The optimal diurnal energy expenditure model included river width and water depth,which had a positive relationship;an increase in either of these two factors resulted in an increase in energy expenditure.This study provides a better understanding of energy allocation strategies underlying the superficial time allocation of wintering waterbirds according to environmental conditions.Exploring these changes can help understand the maximum fitness of wintering waterbirds in response to nature and human influences.

Application of TOPMODEL in Buliu River Basin and comparison with Xin’anjiang model

Along with the rapid development of computer and GIS technology, hydrological models have progressed from lumped to distributed models. TOPMODEL, a bridge between lumped and distributed models, is a semi-distributed model in which the predominant factors determining the formation of runoff are derived from the topography of the basin. A test application of TOPMODEL in the Buliu River Basin is presented. For the sake of comprehensively evaluating the TOPMODEL, the Xin’anjiang model, a classic lumped hydrological model, was also applied in the basin. The structural differences and the simulation results of the two models are compared and analyzed.

Public Policy Supply for Successful Practice of the Xin’anjiang River Ecological Compensation Mechanism

The ecological protection of the inter-provincial river basin of Xin’anjiang River takes the ecological compensation mechanism as the starting point and achieves good results.The success of the mechanism is best reflected in its innovation of public policy supply,which is not only a vivid practice of Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought in the new era,but also establishes a model for absorption,transformation and export of policy supply.The effective supply of public policies on ecological environment is the realistic choice for the construction of ecological civilization in the new era.

中国首个跨省流域横向生态补偿政策的溢出效应

新安江流域作为中国首个跨省流域的横向生态补偿试点,其效果直接关系到未来流域间协同治理的政策设计。本文实证研究了新安江生态补偿政策对同省区内其他河流的水质状况所产生的溢出效应,并分析了相应的原因。研究发现,该政策实施之后,作为考核指标的高锰酸钾指数与氨氮在安徽省内淮河与长江河段的浓度同时得到了有效控制,但是作为非考核指标的溶解氧却没有发生相应的变化。通过对水质指标背后的经济活动分析发现,产生高锰酸钾指数与氨氮污染的工业废水排放量显著降低,并伴随安徽省内河流沿岸城市的工业企业全要素生产率(TFP)相对提高以及工业企业的产值的相对降低。相应地,安徽省内农业生产效率仍处于较低水平,从而导致溶解氧的表现相对较差。

Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.

Economic Value of Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Xin’an River Basin, China

Estimating the value of water resources not only forms the basis of water rights transactions between upstream and downstream and eco-compensation standards, but also provides scientific data for the reasonable establishment of local water prices and promotes sustainable use and efficient management. Here, we estimate the economic value of the water resources of the upper reaches of the Xin’an River basin. Our purpose is to establish theoretical support for eco-compensation standardization and provide data for the protection of water resources and water price reform.

基于等容瞬时单位线的水文模型研究

流域下垫面空间分布的不均匀性对径流的形成有较大影响,流域蓄水容量曲线解决了流域产流空间异质性的问题,但在采用瞬时单位线进行地表汇流计算时,又将其作为空间分布均匀的净雨处理,局部产流并没有实现局部的汇流。考虑汇流时间与蓄水容量的空间相关性,通过Copula函数构造二者的联合分布,以条件概率的形式反映不同蓄水容量处汇流时间的空间分布特征,进而以等蓄水容量为计算单元,提出了等容瞬时单位线的概念,相当于采用变单位线的方式计算单元产流量的地表径流,从而可以实现局部产汇流计算过程的统一。由此,创建了基于等容瞬时单位线的水文模型IIUHH,并根据Copula函数的类型构建了多种形式的IIUHH,最后选择清江上游作为案例进行验证。结果表明:Clayton型的IIUHH在研究区域表现更优,相比于新安江模型,Nash效率系数可以提高4%~12%,Kling-Gupta效率系数可以提高13%~27%,洪峰相对误差则可降低26%~36%,较大程度上提高了洪峰和洪水过程的模拟精度。研究成果可为流域高精度径流预报提供技术支撑。

基于SWAT与新安江模型场次洪水模拟研究及评估

中小河流洪水大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,具有突发性强,汇流时间短的特点,已成为当前防洪工作的重点和难点。新安江模型和SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型都是应用广泛的水文模型,但其在中小河流洪水模拟中的对比分析及效果评估方面还鲜有研究。以北潦南河为例,建立了日尺度和小时尺度的新安江模型和SWAT模型,评估2种模型在径流深、洪峰流量和峰现时间等关键要素方面的计算效果,分析各自优缺点。结果表明,在率定期间,新安江模型相对径流误差(RRE)、洪峰流量相对误差(RPE)和峰现时间误差(PTE)平均值分别为-2.6%、-4.3%、-0.3 h, SWAT模型RRE、RPE和PTE平均值分别为-4.3%、-3.3%、-0.1 h,新安江模型在RRE方面优于SWAT模型,但SWAT模型在RPE、PTE和多峰洪水模拟方面则优于新安江模型;在验证期得出了与率定期相同的结论。

基于新安江模型的老挝南俄河流域径流变化贡献率分析

为分析20世纪60年代以来气候变化和人类活动对老挝南俄河流域径流变化的贡献率,基于流域内地面站点实测降水数据,对广泛应用于湄公河流域的APHRODITE和MSWEP两种卫星降水产品日降水数据进行了偏差校正,采用经校正的基准期卫星日降水和白冠洪、欣赫普两站点实测日径流资料构建了新安江模型,模拟还原了流域水库影响期的天然日径流过程,定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:南俄河流域年径流总体呈下降趋势;白冠洪站两个水库影响期气候变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为-429%和-399%,欣赫普站水库影响期气候变化对径流变化的贡献率为-380%,而对应的人类活动贡献率分别为529%、499%和480%,人类活动是流域径流变化的主要原因;以水库运行为主的人类活动对径流年内分配影响显著,丰水期人类活动影响量的绝对值超过气候变化影响量绝对值的2倍。

概念性水文模型与智能模型在中小河流洪水模拟中的比较研究

相较于大江大河的流域水文预报研究,中小流域的研究相对匮乏。以沅江河溪水文站以上流域为例,研究LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)模型和新安江模型在场次洪水中的模拟效果。通过对比,新安江模型的整体模拟精度较高,洪量、洪峰、峰现时间的平均相对误差分别为9.39%、9.55%、1.6h,确定性系数为0.73,综合合格率为100%,达到甲级精度标准;LSTM模型的模拟精度较低,洪量、洪峰、峰现时间的平均相对误差分别为11.76%、12.33%、2.3 h,确定性系数为0.60,综合合格率为75%,达到乙级精度标准。结果表明,新安江模型和LSTM模型是中小河流洪水预报的有效方法,均可用于河溪流域的正式预报,且对于河溪流域,新安江模型的模拟精度比LSTM模型更高。

流域水资源和生态环境综合治理启示--千岛湖及新安江流域案例

流域生态综合治理对推动流域生态文明建设具有重要意义。文章基于浙江千岛湖及新安江流域水资源与生态环境保护项目,对其在流域水环境综合治理中获得的成果及经验进行总结,并对后续流域生态综合治理提出建议。研究表明,项目采用SWAT模型进行污染特征识别,明确了主要污染形式及来源,给出了针对性生态修复意见,提高了综合治理效率。进而以小流域治理为单元,通过农业面源污染控制、森林生态系统修复、水资源管理等工作修复了流域生态系统。同时,基于《新安江流域水环境补偿协议》及千岛湖水基金,构建了多元化的流域生态补偿机制,为全国生态补偿体系贡献了浙江经验。

Assessment of temporal and spatial variations in water quality using multivariate statistical methods： a case study of the Xin＇anjiang River, China

This study evaluated the temporal and spatial variations of water quality data sets for the Xin＇anjiang River through the use of multivariate statistical techniques, including cluster analysis （CA）, discriminant analysis （DA）, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis （PCA）. The water samples, measured by ten parameters, were collected every month for three years （2008-2010） from eight sampling stations located along the river. The hierarchical CA classified the 12 months into three periods （First, Second and Third Period） and the eight sampling sites into three groups （Groups 1, 2 and 3） based on seasonal differences and various pollution levels caused by physicochemical properties and anthropogenic activ- ities. DA identified three significant parameters （tempera- ture, pH and E.coli） to distinguish temporal groups with close to 76% correct assignment. The DA also discovered five parameters （temperature, electricity conductivity, total nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus） for spatial variation analysis, with 80.56% correct assignment. The non-parametric correlation coefficient （Spear- man R） explained the relationship between the water quality parameters and the basin characteristics, and the GIS made the results visual and direct. The PCA identified four PCs for Groups 1 and 2, and three PCs for Group 3. These PCs captured 68.94%, 67.48% and 70.35% of the total variance of Groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Although natural pollution affects the Xin＇anjiang River, the main sources of pollution included agricultural activities, industrial waste, and domestic wastewater.

基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报方法

以水库实时洪水预报为研究对象,针对中小流域预见期短,流域天然预见期难以满足水利工程生产要求的问题,研究水库实时洪水预报方法,构建基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报模型。首先,采用短时临近外推技术及STMAS-WAF中尺度天气模式,建立24 h降水预报模型;然后将气象预报成果耦合至水文预报,实现气象水文的时空尺度匹配;最后建立基于来水预报成果反馈的降水预报修正方法,根据前期规律滚动修正未来24 h降水预报成果,将修正后的降水预报输入水文模型,实时预测水库来水,使水文模型从源头上实现准确输入,实现高精度长预见期的水库实时洪水预报,解决了传统水文模型预见期不足的问题。以新安江水库为例开展了模型的实例研究,编制新安江水库气象水文耦合预报方案,进行水库实时洪水预报,并探讨不同降雨输入形式对预报精度的影响,研究结果表明:基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报方法考虑了气象水文的双向反馈,将新安江水库实时洪水预报预见期从6 h左右提升至18 h,确保18 h预见期内预报精度在80%以上。与不考虑降水预报及使用未修正降水预报的2种传统方法的有效预见期相比,新方法的有效预见期分别提升了200%和29%,有效延长了水库实时洪水预报预见期,提高了洪水预报服务能力,给水库实时洪水预报提供了一种行之有效的方法。

基于MCR与FLUS的新安江流域城市开发边界划定研究

为了控制城市无序蔓延并引导城市合理的扩张,从空间规划的角度来制定合理的城市开发边界(Urban development boundary,UDB)显得非常必要.本文以新安江流域为研究区,从城市扩张以及城市空间演变规律两个角度出发,耦合最小累积阻力(Minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型与未来土地利用变化情景模拟(Future land use simulation,FLUS)模型,以阻力与动力相结合的思路为导向,提出了一种新的UDB划定方法,在划分城市扩张适宜性等级基础上,预测2030年、2040年城市扩张,从而综合划定UDB.结果表明:1)城市扩展模拟的Kappa系数为0.81,总体精度为89.55%,能较好反映未来土地变化情况;2)不同城市扩张幅度不同,扩张明显的为杭州市、衢州市以及金华市;3)融合阻力和动力两种模型划定的UDB,更加符合研究区的空间扩张演变规律,能够真实地展示研究区UDB的发展状态.

大汶河流域洪水预报研究

【目的】大汶河是黄河下游最大的一条支流,位于山东省黄河南岸。近年来大汶河流域洪水频发,对突发洪水的应对能力要求较高。【方法】结合大汶河流域的降水及下垫面特性,基于三水源新安江模型构建大汶河流域洪水预报模型,将大汶河流域划分为13个水库计算单元和4个无水库控制计算单元,并分别采用不同产汇流方法进行计算,预报戴村坝站的洪水流量过程。【结果】戴村坝站洪峰流量预报值和实测值的相对误差均在±20%范围以内,符合《水文情报预报规范》合格标准。【结论】研究成果可为做好大汶河流域洪水灾害防御工作,提高自然灾害防治能力提供依据,对促进地区社会经济可持续发展与生态环境保护具有重要意义。

基于PSO算法的新安江模型在永宁河洪水预报中的应用研究

根据嘉陵江一级支流永宁河流域的气候特征,利用永宁镇水文站2002-2021年连续20年的逐日水文观测资料,基于粒子群算法(PSO)对新安江模型进行参数率定,基于此对永宁镇水文站日流量进行模拟,探讨该模型在永宁镇水文站洪水预报中的应用。结果表明:新安江模型在永宁镇水文站径流模拟中的成果较好,率定期确定性系数平均值为0.53,合格率为71%,验证期验证期确定性系数平均值为0.59,合格率为100%,模拟成果合格率达到乙级,确定性系数达到丙级预报精度,符合规范要求,可用于该站的洪水预报,为该站洪水预报提出了新的方向,并为新安江模型在嘉陵江上游应用积累了经验。

新安江-海河模型的构建与应用

为研究海河流域下垫面变化对洪水的影响,对新安江模型进行修订,得到新安江-海河模型。选择海河6个典型流域作为研究对象,分别用新安江模型与新安江-海河模型进行产汇流模拟计算,结果表明:洪水分年代、分量级模拟精度较高,但此时新安江模型参数取值不合理,SM值偏大;新安江-海河模型与新安江模型精度相当或稍有提高,参数取值更加合理。

气候变化下淮河流域极端洪水情景预估

利用IPCC第4次评估公开发布的22个全球气候模式在A1B、A2和B1三种典型排放情景下的未来气温和降水预测结果,结合新安江月分布式水文模型,在对模型验证效果良好的基础上,参照集合预报方法,对未来90年(2010～2099年)气候变化下淮河流域的极端洪水进行预估。研究结果表明,从出现概率来看,淮河流域未来可能发生极端洪水年份的密集程度从大到小依次为A2情景、A1B情景、B1情景。A1B情景下,21世纪下半叶出现极端洪水的可能性增大,A2情景在2035～2065年以及2085年以后是极端洪水发生较为集中的时期。B1情景在21世纪70年代左右发生极端洪水的可能性较大。综合各种极端事件的定义方法,将极端洪水划定3个洪水量级。A2情景预估极端洪水的平均洪量在3种情景中最大,B1情景最小。3种情景未来一级极端洪水发生比例都比历史上偏大,A2情景下增加最多。二级极端洪水都较历史略有减少,三级极端洪水减少最显著。3种情景下各个量级极端洪水所占比例各不相同,A1B和A2情景二级以上极端洪水出现比例较大,B1情景下极端洪水量级多为三级,超1954年的一级极端洪水所占比例较小。

基于分布式水文模型的山洪预警临界雨量计算

以抚河流域3个山丘小流域为例,采用分布式新安江模型对小流域暴雨洪水进行精细化模拟,利用率定后的分布式新安江模型进行临界雨量试算,得出各流域不同初始土壤含水量、不同预警时段组合条件下临界雨量。将计算所得临界雨量与实测暴雨洪水过程和设计暴雨进行比较验证,结果表明临界雨量计算结果较为合理,说明分布式新安江模型可应用于抚河流域山洪预警临界雨量确定,并为抚河流域山洪预警工作的开展提供参考方法。

从生态补偿到流域生态共建共享——兼以新安江流域为例的机制探讨

针对流域生态建设和保护中的外部性问题,介绍了流域生态补偿的概念和主要特征。分析了我国在生态补偿工作方面存在的问题,指出建立流域生态共建共享机制是缓解水源涵养区在保护生态和加快发展中面临的双重压力的有效途径,也是实现流域社会经济和生态协调发展的关键。以新安江流域为例,探讨流域生态共建共享机制,提出流域生态共建区和共享区的概念和范围,对建立流域生态共建共享机制的原则和步骤作了探讨。