A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, ...A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.展开更多
Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity ana...Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.展开更多
In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out ...In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.展开更多
A conceptual hydrological model that links the Xin＇anjiang hydrological model and a physically based snow energy and mass balance model, described as the XINSNOBAL model, was developed in this study for simulating ra...A conceptual hydrological model that links the Xin＇anjiang hydrological model and a physically based snow energy and mass balance model, described as the XINSNOBAL model, was developed in this study for simulating rain-on-snow events that commonly occur in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resultant model was applied to the Lookout Creek Watershed in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and its ability to simulate streamflow was evaluated. The simulation was conducted at 24-hour and one-hour time scales for the period of 1996 to 2005. The results indicated that runoffand peak discharge could be underestimated if snowpack accumulation and snowmelt under rain-on-snow conditions were not taken into account. The average deterministic coefficient of the hourly model in streamflow simulation in the calibration stage was 0.837, which was significantly improved over the value of 0.762 when the Xin＇anjiang model was used alone. Good simulation performance of the XINSNOBAL model in the WS 10 catchment, using the calibrated parameter of the Lookout Creek Watershed for proxy-basin testing, demonstrates that transplanting model parameters between similar watersheds can orovide a useful tool for discharge forecastin~, in un^au^ed basins.展开更多
基金supported by the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology) (Grants No.GYHY200706037, GYHY (QX) 2007-6-1,GYHY200906007,and GYHY201006038)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.50479017 and 40971016)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (Grant No.IRT0717)
文摘A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271003)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants No. 2010CB428403 and 2010CB951103)
文摘Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
基金Supported by Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHR-Y26)Innovation Project Fund of Wuhan Metropolitan Area Meteorological Joint Science and Technology(WHCSQY202305)+1 种基金Innovation and Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J019)Project of Huanggang Meteorological Bureau s Scientific Research(2022Y02).
文摘In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 40901015 and41001011)the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 51190090 and 51190091)+3 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grants No. B1020062 andB1020072)the Ph. D. Programs Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.20090094120008)the Special Fund of State Key Laboratories of China (Grants No. 2009586412 and 2009585412)the Programme of Introducing Talents of Disciplines to Universities of the Ministry of Education and State Administration of the Foreign Experts Affairs of China (the 111 Project, Grant No.B08048)
文摘A conceptual hydrological model that links the Xin＇anjiang hydrological model and a physically based snow energy and mass balance model, described as the XINSNOBAL model, was developed in this study for simulating rain-on-snow events that commonly occur in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resultant model was applied to the Lookout Creek Watershed in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and its ability to simulate streamflow was evaluated. The simulation was conducted at 24-hour and one-hour time scales for the period of 1996 to 2005. The results indicated that runoffand peak discharge could be underestimated if snowpack accumulation and snowmelt under rain-on-snow conditions were not taken into account. The average deterministic coefficient of the hourly model in streamflow simulation in the calibration stage was 0.837, which was significantly improved over the value of 0.762 when the Xin＇anjiang model was used alone. Good simulation performance of the XINSNOBAL model in the WS 10 catchment, using the calibrated parameter of the Lookout Creek Watershed for proxy-basin testing, demonstrates that transplanting model parameters between similar watersheds can orovide a useful tool for discharge forecastin~, in un^au^ed basins.
