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Spatial Pattern and Regional Types of Rural Settlements in Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province,China 被引量:7
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作者 MA Xiaodong QIU Fangdao +2 位作者 LI Quanlin SHAN Yongbin CAO Yong 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第4期482-491,共10页
This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 a... This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 and 2008 and models of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and spatial metrics,the paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the morphological pattern of rural settlements,and finds significant characteristics.First,rural settlements in Xuzhou City are significantly agglomerated in terms of their spatial distribution;meanwhile,there is significant variation in the geographical density distribution.Second,the scale of rural settlements in Xuzhou City is larger than the average in Jiangsu Province,and the histogram of the scale data is more even and more like a gamma distribution.There are a significant high-value cluster in the scale distribution,and local negative correlation between the scale and density distribution of rural settlements in Xuzhou City.Third,the morphology of rural settlements in Xuzhou City shows relative regularity with good connection and integrity,but the spatial variation of the morphology is anisotropic.Finally,according to the characteristics of density,scale,and form of rural settlements,the rural settlements of Xuzhou City are divided into three types:A high-density and point-scattered type,a low-density and cluster-like type and a mass-like and sparse type.The research findings could be used as the scientific foundation for rural planning and community rebuilding,particularly in less-developed areas. 展开更多
关键词 农村居民点 区域类型 空间格局 徐州市 江苏省 中国 形态差异 空间数据分析
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Plant opal analysis of the Guangfucun Site in Wujiang City,Jiangsu Province
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作者 WANG Cailin,Jiangsu Acad of Agri Sci,Nanjing 210014,China 《Chinese Rice Research Newsletter》 2002年第3期27-28,共2页
The Guangfucun Site is located in thewest of Taoyuan Town,Wujiang City,the furthest south end of JiagsuProvince.It is a Neolithic site datedto 6055±125 BP.The cultural de-posits belong to the Majiabang Cul-ture.T... The Guangfucun Site is located in thewest of Taoyuan Town,Wujiang City,the furthest south end of JiagsuProvince.It is a Neolithic site datedto 6055±125 BP.The cultural de-posits belong to the Majiabang Cul-ture.This paper reported the resultsof plant opal analysis of the site and 展开更多
关键词 SITE Plant opal analysis of the Guangfucun Site in Wujiang city jiangsu Province
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Analysis of Urban Expansion and Driving Forces in Xuzhou City Based on Remote Sensing 被引量:15
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作者 HU Zhao-ling DU Pei-jun GUO Da-zhi 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 EI 2007年第2期267-271,共5页
Based on satellite remote sensing TM/ETM+ images of Xuzhou city,land use forms of the city in 1987,1994 and 2000 were extracted by using a neural network classification method. The expansion contribution rate and annu... Based on satellite remote sensing TM/ETM+ images of Xuzhou city,land use forms of the city in 1987,1994 and 2000 were extracted by using a neural network classification method. The expansion contribution rate and annual expansion intensity index of each administrative district have been calculated and the contribution rate matrices and spatial distribution maps of land use changes were obtained. Based on the above analysis,the characteristics of urban expansion from 1987 to 2000 have been explored. From 1987 to 1994,the expansion contribution rate of Quanshan dis-trict reached 46.80%,the highest in all administrative districts of Xuzhou city; Tongshan town was in a high-speed ex-pansion period; both Quanshan and Yunlong districts were experiencing fast-speed expansion periods while the entire city was expanding at a medium-speed with an annual expansion intensity index of 0.98; the city spread eastwards and southwards. From 1994 to 2000,the expansion contribution rate of Quanshan district reached 43.67%,the highest in Xuzhou; the entire city was in a medium-speed expansion period with an annual expansion intensity index of 1.04; the city has rapidly been extended towards the southeast. According to the contribution rate matrices of land use changes,urban expansion mainly usurps cropland and woodland. A quantitative analysis found that population growth,indus-trialization and economic development are the primary driving forces behind urban expansion. 展开更多
关键词 徐州市 城市扩张 环境压力 土地利用 遥感技术
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Color Planning and Design of Main Urban Districts of Xuzhou City 被引量:1
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作者 SHU Xin HUA Tianran 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2015年第6期31-37,41,共8页
Through investigating colors of Xuzhou City, combining with color planning practices in domestic and foreign cities, current colors and characteristics of main urban districts of Xuzhou City were analyzed, overall ori... Through investigating colors of Xuzhou City, combining with color planning practices in domestic and foreign cities, current colors and characteristics of main urban districts of Xuzhou City were analyzed, overall orientation and design concept of city color were explored, the overall framework of regional building colors and the zoning planning were proposed, to give new concepts for the future city color planning and design. 展开更多
关键词 city color Color planning and design Main urban district of xuzhou
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Environmental Effects of Groundwater Development in Xuzhou City, China 被引量:5
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作者 HAN Bao-ping LIU Xi-kun ZHU Xue-qiang FENG Qi-yan SUN Xiao-fei 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 EI 2006年第1期13-16,共4页
Xuzhou City is located in the most northwestern portion of Jiangsu Province, P. R. China. Karst groundwater in the Ordovician and Cambrian Limestone aquifers is the main source of water supply. There are 527 wells in ... Xuzhou City is located in the most northwestern portion of Jiangsu Province, P. R. China. Karst groundwater in the Ordovician and Cambrian Limestone aquifers is the main source of water supply. There are 527 wells in urban areas to exploit the karst groundwater, yielding up to 35 000 m3 per day. After 1978, urbanization and industrialization of Xuzhou City have continued at a greatly accelerated pace; the population increased from 670 700 (1978) to 1 645 500 (2002), its GDP from 0.71 × 109$ to 42.7×109$ and the urban area from 184 km2 to 1,038 km2 (built-up city area from 41.3 km2 to 81.9 km2). The volume of karst groundwater withdrawal increased yearly before the opera- tion of a supply plant of surface water in 1992, from 3.85×107 m3 (1978) to 1.34×108 m3 (1991) and now maintained at 0.1×109 m3 (2002). Intensive overexploitation of karst groundwater has caused a continuous descending of the piezo- metric level and the area of the depression cone increases year after year. These changes have increased the vulnerabil- ity of the karst groundwater system and have induced environmental problems such as depletion of water resources, water quality deterioration, groundwater contamination and karst collapse. The largest buried depth of karst groundwa- ter is up to 100 m in the dry season in some areas, while 66 exhausted wells have been abandoned. A change in the thickness of the unsaturated zone due to the drawdown of the piezometric level has caused a change of the chemical en- vironment which has an impact on the physical state and major chemical compositions in groundwater. The contents of Ca2+, Mg2+, NO3-, SO42– and Cl– in karst groundwater has increased significantly, total hardness (CaCO3 content) rises annually in most pumping wells and exceeds the Standard of Drinking Water of P.R. China. Point source pollution and belt-like pollution along the rivers has caused water quality deterioration. The sudden loss of buoyant support due to rapid drawdown of the piezometric level has induced 7 karst collapses to form 17 pits and has caused an estimated US$10 million economic loss. These problems have influenced the quality of development in the city. 展开更多
关键词 徐州市 环境效应 地下水 水污染 岩溶
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Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Changes of Land Usein Xuzhou City Based on Remote Sensing 被引量:3
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作者 HU Zhao-ling DU Pei-jun GUO Da-zhi 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 EI 2006年第2期151-155,共5页
Based on the satellite remote sensing TM/ETM images of Xuzhou city, basic data about land use of the city from 1994 to 2000 are obtained with the neural network classification module of PCI software, and the dynamic c... Based on the satellite remote sensing TM/ETM images of Xuzhou city, basic data about land use of the city from 1994 to 2000 are obtained with the neural network classification module of PCI software, and the dynamic con- version matrix of land use is thus calculated. The areas of construction land and water body have increased by 1833.93 hm2 and 804.87 hm2, respectively. On the contrary, the area of cropland has decreased by 3207.24 hm2. The area of cropland converted into construction land makes up 26.84%, and that converted into water body amounts for 8.17% of the total area of cropland in 1994. The variation index of land use degree and the dynamic degree index of land use computed are 1.38 and 57.81%, respectively, which demonstrate that land use in Xuzhou is in a development period and the changes are drastic. The frequency index and importance index of the form in which cropland converted into con- struction land are 29.91% and 68.93% respectively. The results indicate that the change is not only widespread in space but a major form of spatial change of land use in the area. 展开更多
关键词 遥感 图象处理 土地管理 土地利用 徐州市
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Planning and Layout Strategies of Urban Institution Pension Service Facilities under the Background of Aging Society: A Case Study of the Main Urban District of Xuzhou City 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Lei 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2018年第4期12-14,18,共4页
China has entered an aging society, and the contradiction between the social pension needs rapidly growing in the city and the lagged pension business is increasingly outstanding. By analyzing the amount, development ... China has entered an aging society, and the contradiction between the social pension needs rapidly growing in the city and the lagged pension business is increasingly outstanding. By analyzing the amount, development level, type, structure, and space distribution of the institutional pension facility in main urban district of Xuzhou City, this paper has summed up the main problems. Combining the estimation on the number of the elders and pension bed, coordination and planning of institutional pension facility in the research zone are conducted from three aspects: distribution guidance, principle of locating and differentiation configuration, to promote the construction of pension agency and impel the development of pension business in Xuzhou City. 展开更多
关键词 社会养老 老龄化社会 发展现状 中国
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Necessity and Feasibility of Developing Low Carbon Agriculture in Xuzhou City
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作者 Chengkui QIANG Yuehua QIN +3 位作者 Shengyong WANG Baoya ZHOU Wujian FENG Songsong WANG 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2013年第6期24-26,30,共4页
According to the characteristics of low carbon economy and low carbon agriculture at home and abroad,and combining with actual situations of agricultural development in Xuzhou City,the necessity of developing low carb... According to the characteristics of low carbon economy and low carbon agriculture at home and abroad,and combining with actual situations of agricultural development in Xuzhou City,the necessity of developing low carbon agriculture in Xuzhou City is analyzed by the perspectives of its agricultural production conditions,agricultural modernization,comprehensive competitive power,ecological civilization and low carbon economy. Simultaneously,the feasibility of developing low carbon agriculture in the city is discussed through low carbon technology,rural land management model,agricultural input channel,agriculture-related scientific research system,agricultural research transformation mechanism and rural personnel training program to provide some references for promoting the rapid and sound development of low carbon agriculture in Xuzhou City. 展开更多
关键词 Low CARBON AGRICULTURE NECESSITY FEASIBILITY Xuzho
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Development Mode of Mid-small Cities in Northern Jiangsu Based on the Growth Pole Theory 被引量:1
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作者 HE Wei TANG Bu-long 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2012年第6期63-65,76,共4页
The development mode of mid-small cities in northern Jiangsu is analyzed on the Growth Pole theory.Depending on scales,endowment of resources,geographical positions,and industrial advantages of mil-small cities,we can... The development mode of mid-small cities in northern Jiangsu is analyzed on the Growth Pole theory.Depending on scales,endowment of resources,geographical positions,and industrial advantages of mil-small cities,we can divide the development mode of those mid-small cities within this context into five types:development through integration into big cities;independent development;resource-dependent development;single industry development;and mixed industry development. 展开更多
关键词 Growth Pole Mid-small cities Development mode Northern jiangsu
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Occurrence Regularity and Ecological Control Technology of Diseases of Hedgerow Commonly Used in Greening in Five Cities of Southern Jiangsu
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作者 SHEN Yaoming MA Guosheng 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2019年第6期141-144,共4页
The disease types, symptom characteristics, pathogenesis and ecological control technology of hedgerow commonly used in landscape greening in Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou were systematically studied.... The disease types, symptom characteristics, pathogenesis and ecological control technology of hedgerow commonly used in landscape greening in Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou were systematically studied. The results showed that there were 10 kinds of common diseases of flowers and shrubs in landscape greening in five cities of southern Jiangsu. Among them, 8 were caused by deuteromycotina and 2 were caused by subphylum basidiomycetes. It was pointed out that the disease regularity was directly related to the pathogenic bacteria, temperature and humidity, microclimate and hedgerow growth. For the first time, the ecological control method of hedgerow disease which focused on ecological health maintenance was put forward. 展开更多
关键词 FIVE CITIES in southern jiangsu HEDGEROW Plant DISEASES Occurrence REGULARITY Ecologicalcontrol technology
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Construction of green infrastructure in coal-resource based city: a case study in Xuzhou urban area 被引量:9
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作者 Jiang Chang Tinghao Hu +1 位作者 Xiangxu Liu Xiaogeng Ren 《International Journal of Coal Science & Technology》 EI 2018年第1期92-104,共13页
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农村产业融合发展的现实困境与实现路径——以江苏省镇江市为例
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作者 张玉军 《北京农业职业学院学报》 2024年第4期23-30,共8页
农村产业融合是全面推进乡村振兴的现实选择,其赋予了农业产业新动能、激发了农村发展新活力、拓展了农民增收新空间。江苏省镇江市农村产业融合发展的实践表明,培养壮大融合主体、优化集聚融合要素、巩固创新融合模式、稳定完善融合机... 农村产业融合是全面推进乡村振兴的现实选择,其赋予了农业产业新动能、激发了农村发展新活力、拓展了农民增收新空间。江苏省镇江市农村产业融合发展的实践表明,培养壮大融合主体、优化集聚融合要素、巩固创新融合模式、稳定完善融合机制,能够有效地提升农村产业发展水平,针对融合层次不高、主体功能不强、要素供给不足等问题,应从创新农业经营组织方式、推动生产要素跨界流动、促进增值收益合理分配等方面促进农村产业深度融合,以期实现共同富裕。 展开更多
关键词 农村产业融合发展 乡村产业振兴 乡村全面振兴 江苏省镇江市
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电力行业CO_(2)排放量预测及减排路径——以徐州市为例
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作者 吴蒙 王晓青 +4 位作者 杨旅涵 张谷春 肖哓虎 徐辉 秦云虎 《江苏师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2024年第1期46-50,共5页
基于1996—2022年《徐州统计年鉴》数据,分析徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放特征,参考宾婵佳等的方法测算徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量,运用BP神经网络模型对2022—2030年徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量进行预测.结果表明:1995—2021年徐州市电... 基于1996—2022年《徐州统计年鉴》数据,分析徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放特征,参考宾婵佳等的方法测算徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量,运用BP神经网络模型对2022—2030年徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量进行预测.结果表明:1995—2021年徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量为1002.684~4462.032万t;单位煤耗CO_(2)排放系数从1995年的1.027 t/MWh上升到1998年的1.043 t/MWh,再下降到2021年的0.820 t/MWh.不同情景下,徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量的预测值与实际值的独立样本t检验结果表明,运用BP神经网络模型预测电力行业CO_(2)排放量是可行的.预测结果显示,到2030年,徐州市电力行业CO_(2)排放量在基准情景下为5382.358万t,低碳情景下为4481.523万t,强化低碳情景下为4077.167万t.提出了徐州市电力行业可从发电端、电网端和消费端实施碳减排措施. 展开更多
关键词 徐州市 电力行业 CO_(2)排放 BP神经网络模型
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江苏省县域PM_(2.5)浓度时空变化特征研究
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作者 楚翠姣 钟声 +2 位作者 梁进 茅晶晶 郁建桥 《环境科学与管理》 CAS 2024年第3期140-145,共6页
文章利用江苏省2017年-2022年环境空气质量监测数据,分析了全省县域细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度时空变化特征,与气象因素的相关关系,并比较了与主城区PM_(2.5)浓度的差异。结果显示,江苏省县域PM_(2.5)浓度呈逐年下降趋势,5年降幅为25.4%,... 文章利用江苏省2017年-2022年环境空气质量监测数据,分析了全省县域细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度时空变化特征,与气象因素的相关关系,并比较了与主城区PM_(2.5)浓度的差异。结果显示,江苏省县域PM_(2.5)浓度呈逐年下降趋势,5年降幅为25.4%,年均下降速率为2.1μg/(m 3.a)。空间分布呈“西北部偏高,东南部偏低”的特征。与气象因素的相关性表明,县域PM_(2.5)月均浓度整体与月均气温、月均风速呈显著负相关,但仅个别月份,与月均相对湿度呈负相关。与主城区PM_(2.5)平均浓度相比,县域平均浓度整体较低,但二者浓度差呈现逐年迅速减小趋势,从日变化看,二者浓度差最大出现在上下班高峰时段。 展开更多
关键词 PM_(2.5)污染 县域 城县差异 气象因素 江苏省
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江苏沿海乡村聚落空间演变特征及驱动机制:以盐城市为例 被引量:1
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作者 吴涛 李传武 《生态与农村环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第7期888-896,共9页
科学认识乡村聚落演变特征及驱动机制是乡村聚落有序重构的基础前提,也是当前乡村地理学研究的重要内容之一。以江苏沿海城市盐城为例,基于1980—2020年3期土地利用数据,采用核密度估计、空间“热点”分析和景观格局指数等方法,探究江... 科学认识乡村聚落演变特征及驱动机制是乡村聚落有序重构的基础前提,也是当前乡村地理学研究的重要内容之一。以江苏沿海城市盐城为例,基于1980—2020年3期土地利用数据,采用核密度估计、空间“热点”分析和景观格局指数等方法,探究江苏沿海平原乡村聚落的空间演变特征及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)从空间分布上来看,盐城市乡村聚落聚集性特征明显,密度分布呈西北高、东南低,沿道路、县城和中心城镇分布的指向性逐渐增强;(2)从规模结构上来看,2000—2020年盐城市乡村聚落规模增大,数量减少,集约用地程度不断提高,聚落呈现大规模、低密度分布与小规模、高密度分布特征;(3)从景观形态上来看,聚落斑块趋于规则,主要表现为点状、带状和块状扩张模式;(4)聚落空间变化是自然环境、经济发展、区位交通和政策调控等综合作用的结果,经济发展和区位交通是乡村聚落演变的主要驱动力,区域发展政策带动作用越来越显著。 展开更多
关键词 乡村聚落 空间演变 江苏沿海 乡村振兴 盐城市
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基于SBE-SD法的江苏园博园城市展园景观美学评价
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作者 张安华 王淑贤 +1 位作者 吕少卿 马璐璐 《西北林学院学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期250-260,共11页
为探究公众对江苏园博园城市展园景观的审美偏好,在实地调研的基础上,以江苏园博园中13座城市园林景观为研究对象,选取在样地拍摄的48张照片进行景观美学评价研究,综合运用美景度评价法(SBE)和语义差异法(SD),以SPSS 26.0软件建立公众... 为探究公众对江苏园博园城市展园景观的审美偏好,在实地调研的基础上,以江苏园博园中13座城市园林景观为研究对象,选取在样地拍摄的48张照片进行景观美学评价研究,综合运用美景度评价法(SBE)和语义差异法(SD),以SPSS 26.0软件建立公众偏好与园林景观要素间的评价模型。结果表明,1)城市展园48处景观美景度值范围为-1.38~0.71,取自苏州园、南京园、无锡园等样本照片美景度评分明显高于宿迁园、盐城园及连云港园,说明江南古典园林的历史地位固化印象对公众审美起主导作用;2)美景度均值为正向值的有苏州园(0.33)>南京园(0.29)>无锡园(0.23)>常州园(0.22)>泰州园(0.16)>镇江园(0.1),说明这些城市园林的样本照片与公众审美契合度高;3)影响城市展园景观美景度的主要因子包括建筑造型、空间尺度、意境营造和色彩搭配,其中对美景度评判影响最为重要的是建筑造型因子。运用SBE-SD法复合评价模型能够较客观地对江苏园博园城市展园景观美景度评判,为其他园博园景观设计提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 江苏园博园 城市展园 SBE法 SD法 景观美学评价
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徐州市重点行业用水定额制定研究
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作者 刘田田 杨明非 李佳慧 《水资源开发与管理》 2024年第5期7-9,6,共4页
针对当前徐州市水资源严重短缺的情况,结合用水定额制定标准,采用典型企业调研法、冒泡排序法、二次平均法和综合分析法等制定合理可行的用水定额,解决当前相对滞后的用水定额与节水技术升级的不匹配问题,为徐州市的水资源管理工作提供... 针对当前徐州市水资源严重短缺的情况,结合用水定额制定标准,采用典型企业调研法、冒泡排序法、二次平均法和综合分析法等制定合理可行的用水定额,解决当前相对滞后的用水定额与节水技术升级的不匹配问题,为徐州市的水资源管理工作提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 重点行业 用水定额 徐州市
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生鲜农产品冷链物流发展现状与优化策略研究——以徐州市为例 被引量:1
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作者 王佳乐 胡亚敏 《物流科技》 2024年第9期167-169,共3页
近年来,随着乡村振兴的深入和生鲜电商的飞速发展,生鲜农产品的市场需求量日益扩大,给冷链物流业的发展带来了新的机遇和挑战,优化生鲜农产品冷链物流的发展逐渐成为实务界和理论界聚焦的问题。文章以淮海经济区农业大市——徐州市为研... 近年来,随着乡村振兴的深入和生鲜电商的飞速发展,生鲜农产品的市场需求量日益扩大,给冷链物流业的发展带来了新的机遇和挑战,优化生鲜农产品冷链物流的发展逐渐成为实务界和理论界聚焦的问题。文章以淮海经济区农业大市——徐州市为研究对象,实际分析徐州市生鲜农产品冷链物流的发展条件和发展现状,讨论冷链物流实际需求与发展现状的矛盾,并提出了针对性优化发展建议,旨在推动徐州市生鲜农产品冷链物流的高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 冷链物流 生鲜农产品 徐州市
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基于POI大数据的苏州市旅游资源空间分异研究
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作者 徐澜涛 陈学刚 《湖北农业科学》 2024年第7期213-218,共6页
以江苏省苏州市为研究对象,在苏州市旅游资源POI数据的基础上,综合运用核密度分析、空间相关性分析、标准差椭圆分析等方法对自然资源景系(气候生物景类、水文景观景类)、文化资源景系(历史遗产景类、现代人文吸引物景类)的数据进行空... 以江苏省苏州市为研究对象,在苏州市旅游资源POI数据的基础上,综合运用核密度分析、空间相关性分析、标准差椭圆分析等方法对自然资源景系(气候生物景类、水文景观景类)、文化资源景系(历史遗产景类、现代人文吸引物景类)的数据进行空间特征的探索。结果表明,苏州市旅游资源总体空间分布呈现出核心-边缘的结构,以姑苏区与苏州工业园区为强度中心向四周递减,周边市区的旅游资源较分散;气候生物景类、水文景观景类、历史遗产景类、现代人文吸引物景类4类旅游资源以多核心分布为主,只有历史遗产景类旅游资源是单核心分布,其主要位于姑苏区与苏州工业园区之间;整体上苏州市各类旅游资源的空间相关性较强,从自然资源景系到文化资源景系的顺序来看,4类旅游资源恰好是西南到东北的走向,这与苏州市自西向东缓缓倾斜的地形相关。 展开更多
关键词 POI 大数据 旅游资源 空间分异 江苏省苏州市
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基于GM(1,1)模型的江苏省淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡预测分析 被引量:1
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作者 王慧 丁伟洁 +3 位作者 卢红梅 李晓宇 何鹏 朱晓琴 《安徽医药》 CAS 2024年第4期750-755,共6页
目的 分析2008年1月1日至2021年12月31日淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡现状,构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2022—2025年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡变化趋势。方法 数据来源于江苏省妇幼卫生信息系统监测数据。采用描述流行病学方法综合分析2008-202... 目的 分析2008年1月1日至2021年12月31日淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡现状,构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2022—2025年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡变化趋势。方法 数据来源于江苏省妇幼卫生信息系统监测数据。采用描述流行病学方法综合分析2008-2021年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡死因并评估失能调整寿命年(DALY)损失,用R3.6.2软件构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测淮安市2022-2025年不同年龄段儿童死亡率和非故意伤害死亡发生率。结果 2008-2021年淮安市共报告5岁以下儿童死亡3 315例,平均死亡率为4.44‰,总体呈下降趋势。5岁以下儿童主要死因为意外窒息、先天性心脏病、早产或低出生体质量、出生窒息、溺水。14年间因5岁以下儿童死亡共损失111 141.98个DALY。GM(1,1)模型结果显示,除了交通意外的模型精确等级结果为3级,其他指标的预测模型拟合效果均较好。2022-2025年预测结果显示,除交通意外死亡率呈逐年上升趋势外,不同年龄段5岁以下死亡和非故意伤害死亡率均呈下降趋势。结论 GM(1,1)对5岁以下儿童死亡预测的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2022-2025年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡率总体呈下降趋势,政府相关部门应进一步加强儿童早产、先天性心脏病及非故意伤害的防控和救治工作,把5岁以下儿童死亡率控制在更低的水平。 展开更多
关键词 儿童死亡率 灰色预测模型 GM(1 1) 儿童 学龄前 预测分析 江苏省淮安市
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