Malaria Transmission Potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China

Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory （based on evaluation by the Delphi method）. Results Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man‐biting rate. Conclusion The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.

Intensive Observation of Reservoirinduced Seismicity and Preliminary Analysis on the Causes of Earthquakes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Yangtze River

In accordance with the requirements of the National Key Technology R＆D Program of the 11th ＂Five-year Plan＂, a densified seismic network consisting of 26 seismic stations was established at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the section of Hubei Province in March 2009 （21 short-period seismographs, 5 broadband digital seismographs）. From March to December, 2009, a total of 2,995 ML -0. 8 - 2. 9 earthquakes were detected during the trial impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir （ water level rose from 145 m to 172.8m）. Using the double difference earthquake location algorithm, 2,837 earthquakes were precisely re-located. The results show that the pattern of small local earthquake swarms in the Three Gorges Reservoir area took on a linear distribution or mass-like cluster distribution, the mass-like clusters of events were generally within a distance of 5 km from waterfront, and the linear distribution of the earthquakes could be extended to a distance of 16 km away from the waterfront. In the Hubei section of the Three Gorges Reservoir, earthquakes were mainly concentrated in the northern end of the Xiannvshan and Jiuwanxi faults near the Xiangxihe River, and along the banks of the Yangtze River at the west of Xietan township and the Shenlongxi area on the northern bank in the Badong region, with focal depths less than 10km, and 4km in average. Earthquake frequency in the reservoir region had a positive correlation with reservoir water level fluctuations, indicating that the seismicity belongs to reservoir induced earthquakes. Along the Shenlong River in the reservoir area, earthquakes showed three linear distributions in the northern Badong county, and distributed according to Karst distribution. There are underground rivers in the carbonate strata. When the reservoir was impounded, water permeated into the underground rivers, thus inducing earthquakes. Earthquakes in the areas on the crossriver segment of Xiannvshan fault, the Jiuwanxi fault and at the areas west of Xietan, Shazhen and Xizhen, may be related to the softening of discontinuities, such as the Nukou fault, the Xiannvshan fault, or the bedding joints, which would lead to failure of rock masses, thus, inducing earthquakes. However, convincing conclusions about the triggering mechanism still need further study. Additionally, near the areas south of Wenhua and Yanglin of Zigui county and at Rangkou town east of Badong county, mininginduced earthquakes occurred at the mines nearby, and on the shores of the reservoir are some collapse earthquakes.