A new era of flood control strategies from the perspective of managing the 2020 Yangtze River flood

Flood control of the Yangtze River is an important part of China’s national water security.In July 2020,due to continuous heavy rainfall,the water levels along the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and major lakes constantly exceeded the warning levels,in which Taihu Lake exceeded its highest safety water level and some stations of Poyang Lake reached their highest water levels in its history.In August 2020,another huge flood occurred in the Minjiang River and the Jialing River in the upper Yangtze River,and some areas of Chongqing Municipality and other cities along the rivers were inundated,resulting in great pressure on flood control and high disaster losses.The 2020 Yangtze River flood has received extensive media coverage and raised concerns on the roles of the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs in flood control.Here we analyze the changes in the pattern of the Yangtze River flood control by comparing the strategies to tackle the three heavy floods occurring in 1954,1998,and 2020.We propose that the overall strategy of the Yangtze River flood control in the new era should adhere to the principle of"Integration of storage and drainage over the entire Yangtze River Basin,with draining floods downstream as the first priority"by using both engineering and non-engineering measures.On the basis of embankments,the engineering measures should use the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs as the major regulatory means,promote the construction of key flood detention areas,keep the floodways clear,and maintain the ecosystem services of wetlands and shoals.In terms of non-engineering measures,we should strengthen adaptive flood risk management under climate change,standardize the use of lands in flood detention areas,give space to floods,and promote the implementation of flood risk maps and flood insurance policies.The ultimate goal of this new flood control system is to enhance the adaptability to frequent floods and increase the resilience to extreme flood disasters.

Numerical Simulation of the Relationships between the 1998 Yangtze River Valley Floods and SST Anomalies

With the IAP/LASG GOALS model, the relationships between the floods in the Yangtze River valley arid sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 1998 have been studied. The results show that the model can reproduce the heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the sum-mer of 1998 forced by global observational sea surface temperatures (SST). The model can also reproduce the observed principal features of the subtropical high anomalies over the western Pacific. The experiments with the observed SST in different ocean areas and different periods have been made. By comparing the ef-fects of SSTA of different ocean areas on the floods, it is found that the SSTA in the Indian Ocean are a ma-jor contributor to the floods, and the results also show that the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific have a much closer relationship with the strong anomalies of the subtropical high over the western Pacific than the SSTA in other concerned areas. The study also indicates that the floods and subtropical high anomalies in the summer of 1998 are more controlled by the simultaneous summertime SSTA than by SSTA in the preceding winter and spring seasons.

Numerical Simulation of the Relationships hetween the 1998Yangtze River Valley Floods and SST Anomalies

With the IAP/ LASG GOALS model, the relationships between the floods in the Yangtze River valley and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 1998 have been studied. The results show that the model can reproduce the heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the sum mer of 1998 forced by global observational sea surface temperatures (SST). The model can also reproduce the observed principal features of the subtropical high anomalies over the western Pacific. The experiments with the observed SST in different ocean areas and different periods have been made. By comparing the ef fects of SSTA of different ocean areas on the floods, it is found that the SSTA in the Indian Ocean are a ma jor contributor to the floods, and the results also show that the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific have a much closer relationship with the strong anomalies of the subtropical high over the western Pacific than the SSTA in other concerned areas. The study also indicates that the floods and subtropical high anomalies in the summer of 1998 are more controlled by the simultaneous summertime SSTA than by SSTA in the preceding winter and spring seasons.

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early summer.This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC.Meanwhile,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component.Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC.The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Simulation and Analysis about the Effects of Geopotential Height Anomaly in Tropical and Subtropical Region on Droughts or Floods in the Yangtze River Valley and North China

Previous study comes to the conclusion： based on the anomalies of the South Asian high （SAH）, 100-hPa geopotential height, and 100-hPa circulation over tropical and subtropical regions, we can predict precipitation anomaly in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. To test its validity, a series of experiments have been designed and operated, which include controlled experiment, sensitivity experiment （which has added anomalies into 100-hPa geopotential height and wind field）, and four-composite experiments. Experiments based on the composed initial field such as EPR-CF, EPR-CD, EPR-HF, and EPR-HD, can reproduce the floods or droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. It suggests that anomalies of the SAH, 100- hPa geopotential height, and circulation over tropical and subtropical regions may probably imply summer precipitation anomalies in the two regions. Sensitivity experiment results show that anomalies of the SAH, 100-hPa geopotential height, and southwest flow in the previous period is a signal of droughts or floods for the following summer in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. And it is also one of the factors that have impact on summer precipitation anomaly in the two regions. Positive anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and the anomalous intensifying of the SAH and southwest flow will induce floods in the Yangtze River Valley and droughts in North China; while negative anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and anomalous weakening of the SAH and southwest flow will induce droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and floods in North China.