Impacts of climate change on glacial water resources and hydrological cycles in the Yangtze River source region,the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,China:A Progress Report

The Yangtze River Source Region has an area of 137,704 km2.Its mean annual runoff of 12.52 billion m3,which was recorded by the Chumda Hydrological Station in 1961–2000,accounts for only 0.13 percent of the Yangtze River's total annual streamflow.The extensive rivers,lakes,wetlands,glaciers,snow fields,and permafrost of the Yangtze River Source Region,as well as the region's vast alpine grasslands,play a critical role in storing and regulating the flow of water not only in the upper Yangtze River watershed of Qinghai,Sichuan,the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) (Tibet) and Yunnan,but also throughout the entire lower Yangtze River basin.Climate change has been the dominant factor in recent fluctuation in the volume of the Yangtze River Source Region's glacier resources.The Chumda Hydrological Station on the lower Tongtian River has registered a mean annual glacial meltwater of 1.13 billion m3 for the period 1961–2000,makes up 9 percent of the total annual runoff.Glacial meltwater makes up a significant percentage of streamflow in the Yangtze River Source Region,the major rivers of the upper Yangtze River Source Region:the Togto,Dam Chu,Garchu,and Bi Chu (Bu Chu) rivers all originate at large glaciers along the Tanggula Range.Glaciers in the Yangtze River Source Region are typical continental-type glaciers with most glacial meltwater flow occurring June–August;the close correlation between June–August river flows and temperature illustrates the important role of glacial meltwater in feeding rivers.Glaciers in the source region have undergone a long period of rapid ablation beginning in 1993.Examination of flow and temperature data for the 1961–2000 period shows that the annual melting period for glacial ice,snow,and frozen ground in the Yangtze River Source Region now begins earlier because of increasing spring temperatures,resulting in the reduction of summer flood season peak runoffs;meanwhile,increased rates of glacier ablation have resulted in more uneven annual distribution of runoff in the source region.The annual glacial meltwater runoff in the Yangtze River Source Region is projected to increase by 28.5 percent by 2050 over its 1970 value with the projected temperature increase of 2℃ and a precipitation increase of 29 mm.As a critical source of surface water for agriculture on the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and beyond,the mass retreat of glaciers in the Yangtze River Source Region will have enormous negative impacts on farming and livestock-raising ac-tivities in upper Yangtze River watershed,as well as on the viability of present ecosystems and even socioeconomic development in the upper Yangtze River Basin.

The Impacts of Permafrost Change on NPP and Implications:A Case of the Source Regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolating functions,and non-linear regression methods.The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas.Results illustrate that:(1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years;(2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17,5.87,7.73,and 5.41 DM·t·hm-2 ·a-1 respectively,and the corresponding GT is 7.1,10.0,21.2,and 8.9 o C respectively in 1980,1990,2000 and 2007;(3) In 1980,the sensitivity of NPP to GT is higher than in 1990,2000 and 2007.This tendency shows that the NPP presents change from fluctuation to an adaptation process over time;(4) During 1980～2007,the accumulated NPP was reduced to 8.05,and the corresponding carrying capacity of theoretical livestock reduced by 11%;(5) The shape of the demonstration region of ecological compensation system,livelihood support system,and science appraisal system in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are an important research for increasing the adaptation capacity and balancing protection and development.

Adaptation Management of Mountain Tourism Service: The Case of the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River

Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.

Eco-environment range in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×10 4 km 2 . Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×10 4 km 2 . Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River.

Changes in stress within grassland ecosystems in the three counties of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

Based on a database of more than 40 years of second production process and energy flow records for Maduo,Qumalai and Yushu counties,a dynamic model of the stress within grassland ecosys-tems was established using a nonlinear regression method for this source regions of the Yangtze and Yel-low Rivers.The results show that dynamic curves of stress within grassland ecosystems in the three coun-ties were in the shape of an inverted 'U' during the period 1965-2007.It also revealed that the variation in actual amount of livestock inventories reflected the general trends of the stress within the grassland eco-systems in the source regions,although there were many other factors for the increase or reduction in grassland ecosystem stress.

Vegetation Index Reconstruction and Linkage with Drought for the Source Region of the Yangtze River Based on Tree-ring Data

Variations in vegetation are closely related to climate change, but understanding of their characteristics and causes remains limited. As a typical semi-humid and semi-arid cold plateau region, it is important to understand the knowledge of long term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) variations and find the potential causes in the source region of the Yangtze River. Based on four tree-ring width chronologies, the regional mean NDVI for July and August spanning the period 1665–2013 was reconstructed using a regression model, and it explained 43.9% of the total variance during the period 1981–2013. In decadal, the reconstructed NDVI showed eight growth stages(1754–1764, 1766–1783, 1794–1811, 1828–1838, 1843–1855, 1862–1873, 1897–1909, and 1932–1945)and four degradation stages(1679–1698, 1726–1753, 1910–1923, and 1988–2000). And based on wavelet analysis, significant cycles of2–3 yr and 3–8 yr were identified. In additional, there was a significant positive correlation between the NDVI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) during the past 349 yr, and they were mainly in phase. However, according to the results of correlation analysis between different grades of drought/wet and NDVI, there was significant asymmetry in extreme drought years and extreme wet years. In extreme drought years, NDVI was positively correlated with PDSI, and in extreme wet years they were negatively correlated.

Glacier retreat and its effect on stream flow in the source region of the Yangtze River

There is growing concern over the effects of climate change on glacier melt and hydrology. In this article, we used two natural small-scale basins, Tuotuo River and Buqu River in the source region of the Yangtze River, China, to show the impacts of glacier melt on stream flow. Changes in the extent of glaciers and ice volume in 1970, 1992 and 2009 are evaluated using remote sensing images. Changes to the glacier surface area over the same time interval are estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and positions using Landsat TM/ETM＋ imagery. By 2009, the glacier surface area had decreased by 20.83% and 34.81% of the 1970 values in Tuotuo River and Baqu River basins respectively. The total meltwater supply in each basin is estimated to be 2.56×10^9 m^3/yr and 1.24×10^9 m^3/yr respectively. Mass balance calculations show that glaciers in the study area suffered a constant mass loss of snow and ice, accumulatively approximately -24 m over the past 40 years. The annual and summer stream flow tended to increase in Tuotuo River basin from 1970 to 2009 while a negative trend of change was shown in Buqu River basin during 1970-1986. Glaciers became shorter, narrower and thinner under the effect of atmospheric warming. Streamflow increase has been recorded at Tuotuo River station in response to increased glacier and permafrost melt. However, streamflow decrease has been recorded at Yanshiping station on Buqu River, where glacier melt has lagged behind atmospheric warming. These results show a close but variable linkage among climate change, glacier melting and water resources in the source region of the Yangtze River.

Spatio-temporal changes of NDVI and its relation with climatic variables in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper, the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multi-temporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile, the cor- relation relationships between air temperature, precipitation, shallow ground temperature and NDVI, which is 3x3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang, Tuotuohe, Qumalai, Maduo, and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River, and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River, some part of Keqianqu, Tongtian, Chumaer, and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai, and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source re- gion of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was positively correlated with average temperature, precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change, and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer.

Fluvial diversity in relation to valley setting in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

The spatial distribution of valley setting （laterally-unconfined, partly-confined, or confined） and fluvial morphology in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers is contrasted and analyzed. The source region of the Yangtze River is divided into 3 broad sections （I, II and III） based on valley setting and channel gradient, with the upstream and downstream sections being characterized by confined （some reaches partly-confined） valleys while the middle section is characterized with wide and shallow, laterally-unconfined valleys. Gorges are prominent in sections I and III, while braided channel patterns dominate section II. By contrast, the source region of the Yellow River is divided into 5 broad sections （sections I-V） based on valley characteristics and channel gradient. Sections I, II and IV are alluvial reaches with mainly laterally-unconfined （some short reaches partly-confined） valleys. Sections III and V are mainly confined or partly-confined. Greater morphological diversity is evident in the source region of the Yellow River relative to the upper Yangtze River. This includes braided, anabranching, anastomosing, meandering and straight alluvial patterns, with gorges in confined reaches. The macro-relief （elevation, gradient, aspect, valley alignment and confinement） of the region, linked directly to tectonic movement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, tied to climatic, hydrologic and biotic considerations, are primary controls upon the patterns of river diversity in the region.

Response of vegetation phenology to climate factors in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

Exploring the impact of climate factors on vegetation phenology is crucial to understanding climate–vegetation interactions as well as carbon and water cycles in ecosystems in the context of climate change.In this article,we extracted the vegetation phenology data from 2002 to 2021 based on the dynamic threshold method in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers.Trend and correlation analyses were used to investigate the relationship between vegetation phenology and temperature,precipitation and their spatial evolution characteristics.The results showed that:(i)From 2002 to 2021,the multi-year average start of growing season(SOS),end of growing season(EOS)and length of growing season(LOS)for plants were concentrated in May,October and 4–6 months,with a trend of 4.9 days(earlier),1.5 days(later),6.3 days/10 a(longer),respectively.(ii)For every 100 m increase in elevation,SOS,EOS and LOS were correspondingly delayed by 1.8 days,advanced by 0.8 days and shortened by 2.6 days,respectively.(iii)The impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation phenology varied at different stages of vegetation growth.Influencing factors of spring phenology experienced a shift from temperature to precipitation,while autumn phenology experienced precipitation followed by temperature.(iv)The climate factors in the previous period significantly affected the vegetation phenology in the study area and the spatial variability was obvious.Specifically,the temperature in April significantly affected the spring phenology and precipitation in August widely affected the autumn phenology.