The Effects of Reclamation Activity and Yellow River Runoff on Coastline and Area of the Laizhou Bay,China

Study on morphological changes of a bay can help to identify the effects of anthropogenic activities on coastal environ-ment and guide the exploration of marine resources.In this paper,morphological data including coastline and water areas in five discrete years between 1968 and 2015 were selected and extracted from the remote sensing images and historical marine charts to study the morphological changes in Laizhou Bay(LZB),one of the bays in the southwest of the Bohai Sea.A systematic analysis on spatial variations of the coastline and the surface areas of different types of waters in LZB was conducted.The results showed that the surface area of LZB was decreased by 1253.2km^(2)in the last half century,which is 17.4%of the total in the 1970s.The areas of the natural wetland and the intertidal zone were decreased by 17.2%and 56.1%,respectively,and the average water depth varied from 9.05 m to 8.16m at low tide level from 1968 to 2015.The coastline and shape variations of the bay turned to be complex after the 1980s,and the shape index of LZB showed an increasing trend in more recent years.The centroid of the bay generally migrated to the northeast direction,i.e.,the direction of the center of the Bohai Sea,and the shrinking direction of the bay was consistent with the migration direction of the coastline.The reclamation area during 1968-2015 in LZB was 1201.7km^(2),and 94.1%was in the inter-tidal zone.The overall morphological change of the bay during the last half century was mainly controlled by the coastal reclamation activities,and the Yellow River runoff including the river course change and sediment load variation was also an important control-ling factor.

Runoff of the upper Yellow River above Tangnag: characteristics, evolution and changing trends

Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.

Impacts of Land-use and Land-cover Changes on River Runoff in Yellow River Basin for Period of 1956–2012

River runoff is affected by many factors, including long-term effects such as climate change that alter rainfall-runoff relationships, and short-term effects related to human intervention(e.g., dam construction, land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)). Discharge from the Yellow River system has been modified in numerous ways over the past century, not only as a result of increased demands for water from agriculture and industry, but also due to hydrological disturbance from LUCC, climate change and the construction of dams. The combined effect of these disturbances may have led to water shortages. Considering that there has been little change in long-term precipitation, dramatic decreases in water discharge may be attributed mainly to human activities, such as water usage, water transportation and dam construction. LUCC may also affect water availability, but the relative contribution of LUCC to changing discharge is unclear. In this study, the impact of LUCC on natural discharge(not including anthropogenic usage) is quantified using an attribution approach based on satellite land cover and discharge data. A retention parameter is used to relate LUCC to changes in discharge. We find that LUCC is the primary factor, and more dominant than climate change, in driving the reduction in discharge during 1956–2012, especially from the mid-1980 s to the end-1990 s. The ratio of each land class to total basin area changed significantly over the study period. Forestland and cropland increased by about 0.58% and 1.41%, respectively, and unused land decreased by 1.16%. Together, these variations resulted in changes in the retention parameter, and runoff generation showed a significant decrease after the mid-1980 s. Our findings highlight the importance of LUCC to runoff generation at the basin scale, and improve our understanding of the influence of LUCC on basin-scale hydrology.

Human impacts on runoff regime of middle and lower Yellow River

In this study, the 54-year （1950 to 2003） monthly runoff series from February, April, August, and November, as well as the annual runoff series, measured at both Huayuankou and Lijin hydrological stations were chosen as representative data, and the continuous wavelet transform （CWT） was applied to analyze the impacts of human activities on the runoff regime of the middle and lower Yellow River. A point of change in 1970 was first determined, and the observed series before 1970 were considered natural runoff while those after 1970 were restored according to linear trends. Then, the CWT was applied to both the observed and restored runoff series to reveal their variations at multi-temporal scales, including the five temporal ranges of 1-4, 6-8, 9-12, 16-22, and 22-30 years, and the trend at the temporal scale of 54 years. These analysis results are compared and discussed in detail. In conclusion, because of the impacts of human activities, there have been significant changes in the runoff regime in the middle and lower Yellow River since 1970. The decaying tendency of annual runoff has become more pronounced, and the inner-annual distribution of runoff has changed, but human activities have had little impact on the periodic characteristics of runoff.

Natural runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin

The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitationfactor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and humanactivity factor. In this paper, the ways and methods of these driving factors impacting on runoffchanges are analyzed at first, and then according to the relationship between precipitation andrunoff, the analytical method about impacts of precipitation and non-precipitation factors onbasin's natural runoff is derived. The amount and contribution rates of the two factors impacting onnatural runoff between every two adjacent decades during 1956-1998 are calculated in the YellowRiver Basin (YRB). The results show that the amount and contribution rate of the two factorsimpacting on natural runoff are different in different periods and regions. For the YRB, thenon-precipitation impact is preponderant for natural runoff reduction after the 1970s. Finally, bychoosing main factors impacting on the natural runoff, one error back-propagation (BP) artificialneural network (ANN) model has been set up, and the impact of human activities on natural runoffreduction in the YRB is simulated. The result shows that the human activities could cause a 77 x10^8 m^3·a^(-1) reduction of runoff during 1980-1998 according to the climate background of1956-1979.

Healthy Yellow River’s essence and indicators

River＇s healthy life is a description of their living conditions, and it is also a comprehensive assessment of river＇s functions and relations with the human society. Through analyzing the demands of human being and river ecosystem, the continuous flow, safe river channel for water and sediment transportation, good water quality, sustainable river ecosystem and water supply capacity are regarded as symbols of the healthy Yellow River. Minimum flow, maximum flood discharging capacity, bank-full discharge, transverse slope of floodplain, water quality degree, wetlands area, aquatic ecosystem, and water supply capacity, altogether eight quantitative indicators are set as symbols of healthy Yellow River, and their corresponding standards are determined based on the analysis with historical hydrological data and observed data of 1956-2004.

龙羊峡水库后汛期入库径流特征及可蓄水量分析

以1956—2022年唐乃亥水文站实测水文数据为基础,采用数理统计方法,重点分析黄河源区后汛期径流特征,并结合龙羊峡水库满负荷发电流量,对龙羊峡水库在后汛期可蓄水量进行不同情景的分析讨论。研究表明:1)唐乃亥水文站后汛期径流量年际变化较大,丰枯不均,以正常偏枯为主,多年平均后汛期径流量占汛期径流量的29.1%;2)唐乃亥水文站后汛期日平均流量在1000 m^(3)/s以上的径流量平均为8.96亿m^(3),年际变化极大,以1000 m^(3)/s发电流量运用,龙羊峡水库蓄至正常蓄水位的保证率仅为10%,多数年份汛期结束后水位无法达到正常蓄水位2600 m。建议根据后期来水,适时调整进入后汛期的时机,优化和调整龙羊峡水库年度调度方案,为高效合理利用黄河源区后汛期水资源奠定基础。

黄河上游近60年水沙变化特征及其影响因素

由于受人类活动及气候变化影响,黄河上游干流水沙特征发生显著变化。为探究黄河上游水沙变化情况,基于黄河上游5个水文站19642019年水沙、遥感影像等数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法、累积距平曲线和双累积曲线等突变检验方法和小波分析法,对黄河上游水沙变化特征进行研究。利用水沙关系曲线及线性回归法等方法估算人类活动和气候对水沙变化的贡献率,并着重讨论梯级水库建设及土地利用变化对水沙的影响。结果表明:1)黄河上游玛曲-小川段流域内降雨量和径流量变化幅度不明显,贵德站、循化站、小川站19862019年年均输沙量分别减至19641985年的9.8%、24.6%、38.8%,输沙量大大减少。黄河上游玛曲-小川段径流量突变多在1986年,输沙量突变多在1969、1986、2004年,径流量存在8、16、22 a周期,输沙量存在4~8、18~21、27 a周期。2)1969年后,河流输沙能力增强,水沙关系显著改变。在不同时段内,人类活动对径流量变化在19872019年贡献率为66.3%,对输沙量变化在19701986、19872004、20052019年的贡献率为72.96%、70.73%、69.7%。人类活动对黄河上游干流水沙影响占据主导因素。3)刘家峡水库淤积最为严重,单库运行期水库淤积量为2.39亿t,排沙比变化范围为1.39%~10.7%。梯级水库联调使得径流量在19642004年间减少47.8%,19642019年间梯级水库减沙94.8%,梯级水库对输沙量影响远大于对径流量的影响。4)19802020年间,草地面积增加了1880.03 km 2,增幅3.1%,有利于减少输沙量,草地拦沙效益大于截流效益。

黄河上游径流量对气候变化的响应和预测模型

全球气候变化下的黄河上游径流量变化及其预测是流域生态水文研究的热点之一。利用2008—2020年流域内48个气象站的监测数据和头道拐水文站径流数据,系统分析了黄河上游流域径流量与气候要素变化的关系,并建立径流量预测模型。结果表明,单一月份的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸散发量多未表现出显著的年际变化趋势,但年平均气温和年降水量显著上升,而年蒸散发量也有上升趋势但统计不显著;多数单一月份的月径流量和年径流量均在年际上呈显著增加趋势。在月平均气温、月降水量、月蒸散发量均与月径流量显著相关的基础上,基于气候要素建立的黄河上游流域径流量预测模型具有良好的预测效果。

黄河源区下垫面变化对水文过程的影响

量化评估下垫面变化对水平衡要素的影响,对揭示黄河源区径流变化归因具有重要意义。论文建立了考虑土地覆被变化(LUCC)和叶面积指数(LAI)动态变化的可变下渗容量(VIC)模型,模拟了下垫面变化条件下的降水-径流响应关系。结果表明,考虑下垫面动态变化的VIC模型能更好地模拟源区水文过程,相对误差降低8.8%~12.9%。2001—2018年LAI和LUCC综合作用导致植物蒸腾量年均增加约15%,玛曲和唐乃亥断面径流分别减少约9.19%和7.17%。LAI对径流影响较LUCC大,LAI对玛曲和唐乃亥断面多年平均径流量的贡献分别为-4.80%和4.48%,而LUCC的贡献为0.16%和-3.15%。研究解释了下垫面变化是源区降水增加条件下径流变化不显著的原因,对认识气候变化和生态保护的水文响应规律有借鉴意义。

基于多种降水数据产品的黄河源区径流模拟研究

黄河源区位于青藏高原的东北部,该流域气象站点分布稀疏,水文过程研究存在很大的局限性,研究多种降水数据产品在流域的适用性对水文模型研究具有重要的推动作用。本文以黄河源区作为研究区域,基于中国气象同化驱动数据集(China Meteorological Assimilation Datasets for SWAT model Version1.1,CMADS V1.1)、热带降雨测量卫星(Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission,TRMM)降水数据集(3B42 Version7)和气象站观测降水数据分别驱动土壤水文评估工具分布式水文模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool,SWAT),同时利用SWAT-CUP(SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program)和SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting2)算法对27个敏感性参数进行率定,模拟黄河源区多年月平均径流量的变化规律,并将模拟结果与观测值进行对比分析,评估了CMADS和TRMM 3B42降水数据产品在该流域的精度以及SWAT模型在黄河源区的适用性。结果表明:(1)由3种降水数据获得的降水空间分布为由西向东递增的趋势,TRMM 3B42与实测降水在年和月变化上一致性好于CMADS数据集。(2)参数敏感性分析结果表明:SCS(Soil Conservation Service)径流曲线数、地下水滞后系数、土壤蒸发补偿系数对径流模拟的敏感性程度较强。(3)利用CMADS和TRMM 3B42降水数据集模拟的径流结果均优于实测降水数据,流域内3个水文站在率定期的相关系数R分别是0.93,0.92和0.88;TRMM 3B42模拟结果次之,率定期和验证期的相关系数R均在0.80以上,纳什系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,NSE)在0.50以上。本研究证明了CMADS数据集和SWAT模型在地貌类型复杂、气候变化敏感的高海拔地区的径流模拟方面具有较好的适用性,为气象站点稀缺的地区提供了建立水文模型的替换方案。

黄河源区唐乃亥以上流域不同区间径流差异及原因分析

利用1956-2019年黄河源区唐乃亥以上流域水文观测数据,将流域分为吉迈以上、吉迈-玛曲、玛曲-唐乃亥3个区间,分析不同区间的径流变化过程.采用Mann-Kendall法对区间径流量进行突变检验,以径流突变年份分割时间序列,得到径流累积量、降水累积量、蒸发累积量与年份的线性关系式,对其贡献率做定量分析.结果表明:(1)产流在整个源区面上时间分布和空间分布出现均匀化.(2)黄河源区20世纪90年代后径流有所减小,2004年后各区间又发生一次突变,径流显著增加. 20世纪90年代至21世纪初气温升高导致蒸发增大对径流的减小作用较为明显,2004年后降水增加对径流增加的影响显著增强,且存在降水、蒸发的变化与径流变化不一致的区间和时间系列.

1998-2022年黄河中游水沙变化趋势分析

黄河中游是黄河泥沙来源的主要产区,为明确近二十多年来该区域水沙变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析黄河中游头道拐、龙门、潼关、三门峡和花园口5个水文站的1998-2022年径流量和输沙量的变化特征。结果表明:在研究时段内,除龙门水文站外,其余4个水文站的径流量都呈现出极显著增加趋势,输沙量除头道拐外,其余4个水文站均呈现下降趋势;5个水文站径流量的突变年份主要集中在2005-2008年,输沙量的突变年份无明显规律性,且部分水文站在该研究时段内并未出现突变;小波变换得到研究区径流量和输沙量存在多尺度的周期性变化,径流量的第一主周期集中在27~28a的时间尺度,输沙量的第一主周期集中在10a及31a时间尺度,周期震荡最为剧烈。

基于修正参数Budyko框架的黄河中游径流变化归因

受气候变化和人类活动的共同作用,黄河中游径流量不断减少。构建了植被变化与气候变化、与人类活动之间的回归方程,从而确定了其对植被变化的贡献率,再将其引入Budyko框架里代表人类活动的流域特征参数中,以确定气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明:1)气候变化和人类活动对植被变化的贡献率分别为14.73%和85.27%;2)降水弹性、潜在蒸散发弹性和流域特征弹性分别由突变前的3.04、2.03和3.05增加至突变后的3.48、2.48和3.33;3)气候变化对径流减少的相对贡献率之和为-7.6245%,对径流量增加具有一定的促进作用,而人类活动对径流减少的相对贡献率为107.6245%,是黄河中游径流减少的主要因素。

潮流-径流耦合作用对黄河入海污染物(COD)扩散的影响

建立了黄河口海域化学需氧量(COD)输移扩散数值模型,以COD为例研究了潮流-径流耦合作用对黄河入海污染物输移扩散的影响规律。研究发现在入海通量一定的前提下,COD沿程衰减速度随着径流量的增加而降低,沿正北方向衰减速度最大,并给出了径流对COD扩散影响范围,可供黄河口海域污染物扩散的研究及周边海域的环境保护工作借鉴。

流域未来径流和蓄水量预测不确定性的量化评估

水文模拟精度优劣与参与水文过程的多源不确定性相关,且其累积效应将会造成预测不确定性进一步扩大。因此,以黄河源区为例,利用极大似然不确定性估计法(GLUE)识别新安江模型有效参数组,通过耦合CMIP5下4种气候模式、3种气候变化情景、8种有效参数组,揭示了各源不确定性对流域径流量和蓄水量预测的影响,并采用方差分析方法(ANOVA)量化分离了其对月尺度流域径流量和蓄水量预测不确定性的相对贡献。结果表明,利用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)获得的降水量、最低和最高气温数据可较好的应用于研究区,其相关系数R^(2)均大于0.70,且均方根误差R_(RMSE)小于30%;参数和GCMs不确定性对流域径流量的影响占主导地位,前者对流域蓄水量的相对贡献高达0.98,且多源不确定性之间交互作用对汛前和汛后的贡献大于非汛期。研究结果对于流域防洪减灾、降低水文模拟过程认知不确定性具有重要意义。

基于SWAT模型的黄河流域(河南段)径流模拟研究

【目的】水土资源不平衡严重制约着河南省经济社会高质量发展,开展径流模拟是进行水土资源合理调控的前提,对于流域水土资源高效管理具有重要意义。【方法】基于GIS构建黄河流域(河南段)的SWAT模型,建立流域模型的空间数据库和属性数据库,采用SUFI-2算法对影响模拟径流结果的重要参数进行分析,选择花园口站和艾山站作为出口进行校准,模拟黄河流域(河南段)的径流过程。【结果】结果表明,参数中SFTMP、SOL_AWC对的径流模拟结果的影响最为显著;花园口站和艾山站的R~2和NSE均大于0.8,SWAT模型在黄河流域(河南段)具有较好的适用性。【结论】研究结果可为黄河流域(河南段)水资源量模拟提供参考,建立的模型为花园口站和艾山站未来径流变化模拟提供了借鉴。

Validating the Runoff from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale Routing Model

The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS （Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate model driven by 15-year （1979-1993） ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model （LRM）. The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°×1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin, The PRECIS- LRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.

黄河流域水沙变化趋势多模型预测及其集合评估

黄河水沙变化情势深刻影响着黄河流域水沙调控工程布局、流域内外水资源配置和跨流域调水工程建设等黄河保护与治理开发重大问题的决策。但受研究时段、方法及其边界条件等影响,黄河水沙变化预测成果差异大,难形成共识。本研究基于水沙变化归因和预测结果的不确定性解析,构建了多模型预测成果集合评估技术,预测了黄河流域未来50 a水沙量。结果表明:既有流域水沙变化归因与预测成果差异大,原因在于不同方法因数据输入、变量构成及精度评价方法差异带来的不确定性;提出了基于输入-结构-输出的模型适用性判别准则和评价技术,并基于标准化的数据输入,从数据需求、物理基础、应用效率、输出尺度和预测精度等五个维度,集合评价了现有水沙变化预测模型的适用性;构建了流域水沙变化多模型集合评价-多结果加权融合-BMA集合预测的集合评估技术,根据9类模型预测成果,集合预测了黄河流域未来50 a年径流量为240亿m^(3),年均输沙量为2.5亿t。

基于SSP情景的黄河源区未来径流模拟预估

受全球气候变化影响,黄河源区的水文情势发生了较大改变,预估气候变化情景下未来流域径流变化趋势对区域水资源利用具有重要意义。利用气候模式数据驱动长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型,研究了未来近期(2030—2059年)和未来远期(2060—2099年)不同气候变化情景下黄河源区降水和气温的变化趋势,预估了相应径流过程的系统性变化趋势,并采用气候弹性系数法定量分析了气候变化对区域水资源的影响。结果表明:①LSTM模型在黄河源区径流模拟中具有良好的适用性,修正后的模型在训练期和验证期的纳什效率系数分别达到0.84和0.87。②2030—2099年黄河源区的气温呈持续升高态势,年均降水量呈轻微增长趋势,其中汛期降水量减少,非汛期降水量增加。③未来研究区年均径流量呈轻微减少趋势,其中非汛期径流量呈增长趋势,增长幅度大多在30%左右;汛期径流量呈减少趋势,减少幅度为30%~40%。④黄河源区水资源对降水和气温的弹性系数分别为0.392和-0.085,水资源量对降水变化的敏感性高于对气温变化的敏感性。预计降水量变化-15%~25%时,水资源量变化-5.87%~9.79%;气温升高1.0~3.0℃时,水资源量变化-7.29%~-2.42%。