On Estimating Magnitude of a Maximum Sequent Earthquake by Viscoelastic Coulomb Stress Change and a Discussion of the Relationship between the M_S7.3 Earthquakes in Yutian 2008 and 2014

On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.

Tectonic Background of the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014 and Its Relationship with the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2008

The regional tectonic background and characteristics of active faults of the Yutian MS7.3earthquake on February 12,2014 are discussed in this paper.After the analysis of the epicenter area of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the focal mechanisms of the former strong earthquakes around it,the authors deduced that the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3earthquake is the east branch of the Ashikule fault.The MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 are two strong earthquake events on the different sections of the Altun Tagh fault,where the fault behavior changes from sinistral slip to normal faulting because of the extensional tail effects in the southern end of the Altun Tagh fault.It is concluded that the two MS7.3 earthquakes have the same dynamic source,and the MS7.3earthquake in 2008 promoted the occurrence of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014.Finally,we calculate the Coulomb stress change to the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3 earthquake in2014 from the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 using the layered crust model.The result also shows that the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 accelerated the occurrence of the MS7.3earthquake in 2014.

Temporal gravity changes before the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake

Based on the data of the repeated gravity observation network in Chinese mainland since 1998, we analyzed the temporal changes of regional gravity field before the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake. The result shows some mid-to-long term （two to ten years） changes during the earthquake＇ s preparation. Notable fea- tures are a gravity increase lasting several years and a relatively large-scaled gradient zone of gravity change, the former indicating a continuous energy accumulation and the latter a possible location of seismic rupture. These gravity changes showed a trend of increase-accelerated increase-decelerated increase, similar to that of the Tangshan Ms7.8 earthquake in 1976. The maximum accumulated gravity change related to the earthquake reached 200 × 10 -8 ms -2.

Analysis of ionospheric anomaly preceding the Mw7.3 Yutian earthquake

On February 12,2014,a large Mw7. 3 earthquake occurred in Yutian of Xijiang Province,China.We processed the global ionosphere maps provided by CODE（ the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe）and the foF2（ the critical frequency of F2-layer） data of Chongqing ionosonde station to analyze the preearthquake ionospheric anomalies. Solar activities and magnetic storm were checked by the sliding inter quartile range method to remove their effects on the ionosphere. A positive ionospheric anomaly with the large amplitude of 20 TECU was observed near the epicenter on February 3（ 10th day before the earthquake）. In addition,the foF2 at Chongqing station had an unusual increase of more than 40% on the day,which was consistent with the TEC（ Total Electron Content） anomaly. The global disturbance represents that the peak of TEC anomaly didn’t coincide with the vertical projection of epicenter. The TEC anomalous area was closer to the equator,and it mainly occurred from local time 16 ∶ 00 to 20 ∶ 00. An enhancement of TEC with the small amplitude also appeared in the magnetically conjugated region.

Features of seismicity in Xinjiang and its possible reason after the Yutian M_S7.4 earthquake,2008

The paper discusses quantitatively the influence of the Yutian Ms7.4 earthquake of March 21, 2008 and Wuqia Ms6.9 earthquake of October 5, 2008 on regional seismicity in Xinjiang, and explains primarily the possible reason of earthquake activity feature in Xinjiang after the Yutian Ms7.4 earthquake by analyzing the static Coulomb failure stress change produced by the Yutian Ms7.4 earthquake and Wuqia Ms6.9 earth-quake, and the seismicity feature of Ms≥3 earthquakes in the positive Coulomb stress change region of Kashi-Wuqia joint region, the central segment of Tianshan Mountain and Kalpin block. The result shows that the Yutian Ms7.4 earthquake of March 21, 2008, may encourage the Wuqia Ms6.9 earth-quake of October 5, 2008, and the Yutian Ms7.4 earthquake and Wuqia Ms6.9 earthquake may change the seismicity state in the central segment of Tianshan Mountain, Kalpin block and Kashi-Wuqia joint region, and encourage the subsequent Ms≥3 earthquakes.

Study of Sediments in the Yutian-Hotan Oasis, South Xinjiang, China

Based on investigation of sediments in the Yutian-Hotan Oasis at the southernmargin of the Tarim basin, ^(14)C ages and grain-size and chemical element analyses, the followingviews are put forward in this paper.(1) Sediments in the Yutian-Hotan Oasis are composed chiefly of 'oasis soil', similar to the recentoasis soil, i.e. brown desert soil, which was formed due to pedogenesis after aeolian sand (sandyloam) and dust (loess) of 3.32-6.64 phi were deposited.(2) The ancient Yutian-Hotan Oasis represented by oasis soil was formed at 13000 a B.P. During thecold period of the past 13000 years, this region is characterized mainly by accumulation of sand anddust storms, and sandy oasis soil was developed in this region due to pedogenesis in an oasisenvironment; during the warm period, dust falls predominated along with certain current concomitants(lacustrine facies), and silty oasis soil was formed by pedogenesis. Owing to fluctuations of coldand warm climates since 13000 a B.P., sandy oasis soil was deposited alternately with silty oasissoil and lacustrine soils. Nevertheless, the Yutian-Hotan Oasis has been preserved and developingcontinuously towards the contemporary time.(3) At the latest, the oasis became an important site of human inhabitancy at 10000 a B.P., andsince then it has been an important base for the propagation and activity of local people in theTarim Basin.

Preseismic deformation associated with the 2014 Ms7.3 Yutian earthquake derived from GPS data

Based on analysis of the GPS data during 1999-2007,2009-2011,and 2011-2013 mainly from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China,we obtained the GPS horizontal velocity field,the GPS strain rate field,and the profiles across the southwestern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault zone and its adjacent regions and identified the different characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation fields and profiles during different periods. The results show that,before the February 12,2014,Ms7. 3 Yutian earthquake,the laevorotation deformation along the southwestern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault zone increased about 3. 3 mm /a during 2011-2013,relative to that in 2009-2011,and the GPS strain rate field distributed in the southeastern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault during 2011-2013 increased obviously. These abnormal changes may be regarded as precursors to the Ms7. 3 Yutian earthquake.

Application of High-Resolution Remote Sensing Technology in Quantitative Study on Coseismic Surface Rupture Zones: An Example of the 2008 M_w7.2 Yutian Earthquake

Objective Nowadays, high-resolution remote sensing technology has brought new changes to surveys of earthquakes, and the quantitative study of seismic faults based on this technology has become a trend in the world(Barzegari et al., 2017). An Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred in Yutian of Xinjiang on the western end of the Altyn Tagh fault on March 21 st, 2008. It is difficult to access this depopulated zone because of the high altitude and only 1–2 months of snowmelt. This study utilized high-resolution

Analysis on Characteristics of Focal Mechanisms for the M_S7.3 Yutian Earthquake Sequence of February 12,2014

The paper inverts the focal mechanism solutions of the Yutian M_S7. 3 main shock,foreshocks and M_S≥3. 5 aftershocks by using the CAP method,based on the broadband waveforms recorded by the Xinjiang and Tibet Digital Seismic Networks. The results show that the M_S7. 3 strong earthquake is of strike-slip type with a normal faulting component,and combined with the analysis of focal structure and the aftershock distribution,the nodal plane I with strike 241°,dip 90° and rake- 22° is considered to be the seismogenic fault plane of the main shock. The direction of P-axis for the main shock is 194°,close to the near NS direction of the principal stress P-axis of historical strong earthquakes in this region. The focal mechanism solution of the M_S5. 4 foreshock has a good consistency with that of the main shock. Among the 18 aftershocks,10 are of strike-slip type,6 are of normal faulting type and 2 are of thrust type. 70% of the aftershocks in the sequence have a focal mechanism with P-axis in the near-NS direction. The focal depths of this M_S7. 3 earthquake sequences are distributed in the range of 5km- 28 km,with the majority in the depth range of 15km- 20 km,slightly deeper than the depth of 10 km of the main shock as calculated.

Coseismic deformation of the 2020 Yutian MW 6.4 earthquake from Sentinel-1A and the slip inversion

A remarkable earthquake struck Yutian,China on June 26th,2020.Here,we use Sentinel-1 images to investigate the deformation induced by this event.We invert the InSAR observations using a two-step approach:a nonlinear inversion to constrain fault geometries with uniform slip based on the rectangular plane dislocation in an elastic half-space,followed by a linear inversion to retrieve the slip distribution on the fault plane.The results show that the maximum LOS displacement is 22.6 cm,and the fault accessed to the ruptured characteristics of normal faults with the minor left-lateral strike-slip component.The fault model indicates a 210strike.The main rupture zone concentrates in the depth of 5-15 km,and the fault slip peaks at 0.89 m at the depth of 9 km.Then,we calculate the variation of the static Coulomb stress based on the optimal fault model,the results suggest that the Coulomb stress of the Altyn Tagh fault and other neighboring faults has increased and more attention should be paid to possible seismic risks.

Research on Co-seismic Displacement of the Yutian MS7.3 Earthquake Based on the High Frequency Data of GNSS

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.

The Static Stress Triggering Effects Related to the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake

This paper calculates the static Coulomb stress changes generated by four earthquakes in the Yutian area during 2008 ~ 2014 separately,then discusses the triggering influence,their accumulated Coulomb stress changes and their influence on nearby faults.The results indicate that the M S5.5 earthquake in 2011 and the M_S7.3 earthquake in 2014 are both in the regions where the Coulomb stress change is positive,the stress changes are 0.004 MPa and 0.021 MPa, respectively, meaning they are triggered by prior earthquakes.The M S6.2 earthquake in 2012 occurred in the place where Coulomb stress change was negative,so it is postponed by the prior earthquakes.The image of Coulomb stress changes of the M S7.3 earthquake in 2014 is in accord with aftershocks( M L≥ 3.0)distribution,but some regions on the fault where the Coulomb stress change is positive have few aftershocks,and strong aftershocks may occur at these districts in future.In addition,this paper calculates the Coulomb stress change on nearby faults,and finds that the Coulomb stress changes of different elements in the GGC fault are very different,and must receive strong triggered-influence,though the result may be influenced by the input finite fault model,so there is still a large earthquake-risk.The GGN,PLC,PLW and LBW faults were also triggered by the four earthquakes occurring between 2008 ~ 2014.Their maximum Coulomb stress changes all exceed 0.002 MPa,so they also have a strong earthquake hazard.

Seismic Sequence Characteristics of the March 21,2008,M_S 7. 4 Yutian,Xinjiang Earthquake and Seismological Anomalies before the Earthquake

The parameters, stress field background, geological tectonics and seismic sequence of the March 21, 2008, Ms7.4 Yutian, Xinjiang earthquake are discussed in this paper. The characteristics of seismic activity in the epicenter and its adjacent region before the earthquake are analyzed; and a comparison is made between the Ms7.4 Yutian earthquake sequence, the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake sequence and the Wuqia Ms6.9 earthquake sequence. The results show the Ms7.4 Yutian earthquake occurred in the junction between the Aityn Tagh fault and the western Kunlun fault, resulting perhaps from the tensile fracture of the branch fault located southwest of the Ashikule basin due to left-lateral dislocation of the Aityn Tagh fault; the seismic sequence is of main shock-aftershock type, the strongest aftershock being Ms5.8. The aftershocks attenuated quickly, and occurred in groups; the focal mechanism solutions and epicenter distribution have revealed a unilateral rupture source of this earthquake. Seismic activity shows that there was medium and medium-short term abnormity before the earthquake, but there was not short-imminent abnormity. Seismic activity of this earthquake sequence enhanced before the Ms8. 0 Wenchuan and the Ms6. 9 Wuqia earthquakes, showing the window effect to some extent.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

Deformation Anomalies before the February 12,2014,M_S7.3 Yutian Earthquake

The Yutian earthquake with M_S7.3 happened on February 12,2014. The precursor monitoring ability is weak in that area. We found tendency anomalies and middle- and short-term anomalies from metal pendulum tilt measurements in Hotan seismic station before the earthquake. And we also compared the anomalies with that of the M_S7.3 Yutian earthquake on March 21,2008. The tendency anomalies measured by the metal pendulum tiltmeter appeared since 2012 as tilting eastward. While the middle- and short-term anomalies were characterized by acceleration,pause and rapid change of tilt rate in two directions. The tendency anomalies of metal pendulum tilt records are the same before the two earthquakes. They both happened in the east direction. However,there are differences in duration,characteristic and earthquake intervals for the middle- and short-term anomalies.

Analysis of Seismic Activity Characteristics before the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake,Xinjiang on February 12,2014

This paper introduces the geological structure background around the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake area, investigates and analyzes the regime of small earthquake activity and the characteristics of regional seismicity pattern in Xinjiang before the earthquake, and compares the characteristics of the regional seismic activity with the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake. The results show： ① 2 ~ 3 years before the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in a seismic active state with strong earthquake occurring successively, and before the 2008 Ms 7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in the quiet state of moderate-small earthquakes with M3. 0 ~ 4. 0. ② Before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, the regional seismic activity showed a short-term anomaly feature, that is, seismicity of M ≥ 5. 0 earthquakes significantly increased on the Altun seismic zone and in the source area three years before the Ms7.3 earthquake, while a five year long quiescence of seismicity of M ≥4. 0 earthquakes appeared on the east of the source area in a range of about 440kin. Six months before this M7. 3 earthquake, there existed seismic gap of M3. 0 ~ 4. 0 earthquakes and near-conjugate seismic belt magnitude 3. 0 and 4. 0 in the source area. ③ The state of strong earthquake activity and the seismicity pattern of small earthquakes before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake were significantly different to that before the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, and this may be related to the different seismogenic environments of the two Ms7. 3 earthquakes.

Possible Thermal Brightness Temperature Anomalies Associated with the Yutian (China) M_S7.3 Earthquake on February 12,2014

In order to analyze the seismic brightness temperature anomalies associated with the Yutian earthquake which occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang on February 12,2014, daily brightness temperature data was collected from the China Geostationary Meteorological Satellite FY-2E,for the period from May 1,2012 to April 30,2014 and the geographical extent of 30°- 45°N latitude and 70°- 95°E longitude. The continuous wavelet transform method was used to analyze the relative wavelet power spectrum( RWPS) of brightness temperature data for each pixel. And the RWPS time-spatial evolution within the analysis area was obtained. The results showed that the anomaly started to appear at the vicinity of epicentre since October 2013, and anomalous areas gradually enlarged and stretched towards to Altun fault zone and the eastern part of West Kunlun fault zone. Anomalies began to appear at fault zones at Middle Tianshan Mountains, Southern Tianshan Mountains and the western part of the West Kunlun Mountains area which is located at the western margin of Tarim basin,since November 2013. Then anomalous area further enlarged and gathered along fault zones,and eventually,anomalous belts were developed along fault zones around the Tarim basin. The anomaly area and amplitude reached their maximum in late December 2013 and early January 2014. With the impending earthquake,the anomaly area and amplitude dwindled. Anomalies at the vicinity of epicentre disappeared days before the occurrence of the main shock. However, the anomaly at Altun and Middle Tianshan areas still remained. After the main shock,the anomaly attenuated quickly and the whole anomaly disappeared in late February 2014.

A Study on the Characteristics of the Yutian,Xinjiang M_S7.3 Earthquake,February 12,2014

The February 12, 2014, Ms7. 3, earthquake in Yutian, Xinjiang, China, occurred as a result of shallow strike-slip faulting in the tectonicaUy complex region of the northern Tibetan Plateau, with a depth of 17kin. This earthquake occurred several hundred kilometers north of the convergent India-Eurasia plate boundary. The epicenter location of the Yutian earthquake, 36. 1° N, 82. 5° E, is ll0km north of Yutian County, Hotan Prefecture. A large number of aftershocks from ML2. 0 to ML3. 0 occurred until 12：00 o＇clock, February 23, 2014 and the largest aftershock, Ms5. 7, occurred at 17：24 μm. , February 12, 2014. The b and h value of Yutian sequence are 0.70 and 1.29, respectively. The waiting time method reveals that the strong aftershocks above ML 4. 5 comply with a linear relationship, which is consistent with the characteristics of a mainshock-aftershock sequence. Furthermore, we calculate the source parameters and analyze the rupture process based on the empirical relationships for the Yutian earthquake, and the results indicate a frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of the Yutian earthquake, which is also in agreement with the lower and similar b values compared with the 2008 Ms 7.3 Yutian earthquake and the 2012 Ms 6. 2 Yutian earthquake.

Characteristics of Seismic Sequences and Early Tendency Judgment for Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014

The basic parameters,seismogenic structure and seismic sequences characteristics of the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014 are introduced and compared to the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake in 2008. The results show that the MS5. 4 earthquake is regarded as an immediate foreshock of the Yutian MS7. 3 main shock. The frequency of strong aftershock sequences was low and their number declined quickly,and the maximum aftershock was a MS5. 7 earthquake. According to analysis of the historical earthquake sequence type,and parameter of h-value,b-value and energy release ratio between main shock and sequence etc.,we found the preliminary conclusion that the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake sequence in 2014 was a foreshock-main shock-aftershock type.

Rapid Determination of the Centroid Moment Tensor of the 2014 M_S7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang Earthquake

We successfully employ an automatic centroid moment tensor(CMT) inversion system to infer the CMT solutions of the February 12,2014 MS7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake using near-field seismic waveforms(4° < △ < 12°) observed by the virtual China seismic networks,which have been recently set up.The results indicate that this event occurred on a rupture plane(strike 243°,dip 70°,and rake-18°),showing left-lateral strike-slip faulting with a minor normal-faulting component.The centroid in the horizontal direction is located nearly 13 km east of the epicenter(36.123° N,82.499° E),and the best-fitting centroid depth is around 10 km.The total scalar moment,M0,is retrieved with an average value of 3.05 × 1019N·m,corresponding to moment magnitude MW6.92.Most of the energy is released within about 14 s.Moreover,we discuss about the potential application of this system in earthquake disaster decision.